Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[monykalyn]

They’ve literally told us to do so. My family had COVID-19 11 months ago. There’s no data to suggest we have any significant immunity at this point (I hope we do, but I won’t hang my hat on hope. I’ll get vaccinated when it’s my turn).

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

Emerging Data Support Lasting COVID-19 Immunity Via T Cells

Antibodies are just one part of the body's immune response. And growing evidence suggests many of us could already have cross-reactive cellular immunity to the “novel” coronavirus.

www.contagionlive.com

Study of Healthcare Workers Shows COVID-19 Immunity Lasts Many Months

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare workers around the world have shown willingness to put their own lives on the line for their patients and communities. Unfortunately, many have also con…

directorsblog.nih.gov

T Cells May Tell Us More About COVID Immunity

Many hope T cell response will mirror that for SARS and MERS: 2 to 10 years

www.medpagetoday.com

There is actually PLENTY of evidence and has been coming out for a few months now-but media likes to have the screech of 'WAINING ANTIBODIES" alarm while ACTUAL virologists who have been studying viruses for decades groan and refuse to go on TV as talking head reduced to a soundbite. Studies with SARS-CoV 1 suggest there is years long (at least partial) immunity. It is also thought that a significant portion of population have innate immunity (at least partial) from other coronaviruses. Funny how this was speculated on months ago, now that there is actual studies coming out it is ignored. Ask yourself why that is...
Podcasts TWiV and MedCram have been excellent throughout this with scientific information without a political (popular press) filter.

 

[correcaminos]

Only 820K doses administered today. I guess the holiday combined with bad weather in parts of the country contributed to the decline. Hopefully just a 1 day glitch.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

given the storms I might consider it more than a 1 day thing. My dad's appointment for his second shot was canceled for tomorrow.

 

[Rich Brownn]

I'm not sure if a mandated vaccination would get past the right to privacy precedent set by that famous case which should not be discussed in any way, shape or form in this thread. For the Government to know if you were vaccinated, they would have to violate your right to privacy.

I would think a carrot approach would be the way to go. You get a tax credit if you file proof of vaccination with your tax return. That way, you aren't forced to be vaccinated or forced to give medical information to the Government. If you want the tax credit then you'll get vaccinated and disclose the vaccination.

Not sure where you get off discussing whats revelent since this case (held up since then) specifically states the goverments right to protect the general welfare overrides any right to privacy. I'm not saying the will, but if they wanted to, yes the government can indeed mandate a vaccine and have a method to show you have been.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Well, when enough of the most vulnerable are vaccinated - those left that do contract the virus will be far less likely to require hospitalization.
They will merely be home sick, or out and about if they are asymptomatic.
And if they are out and about - they won't be spreading to a vulnerable population, because that population will be vaccinated.

Well, except that the vaccines are not 100% effective, so those that are "out and about" as you say, COULD actually sicken a vulnerable person who had been vaccinated.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Only 820K doses administered today. I guess the holiday combined with bad weather in parts of the country contributed to the decline. Hopefully just a 1 day glitch.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

One of those is ME! Actually, my count won't show up until tomorrow or WED. But, my "high-risk, under 65" mistake appointment at WalMart was honored today, with no questions asked.

Dose one of Moderna complete for me!

 

[Figgy1]

Well, except that the vaccines are not 100% effective, so those that are "out and about" as you say, COULD actually sicken a vulnerable person who had been vaccinated.

Which is why masks aren't going away for a while. How long will depend on how long it takes to get enough people their 2nd does plus 4 weeks

 

[DisneyCane]

Not sure where you get off discussing whats revelent since this case (held up since then) specifically states the goverments right to protect the general welfare overrides any right to privacy. I'm not saying the will, but if they wanted to, yes the government can indeed mandate a vaccine and have a method to show you have been.

It's been a while since I've read the entire opinion but from what I remember the override was related to regulation and at what point certain risks became more relevant. I'm not being very clear in my comment because I don't want the discussion to veer into a debate over that case.

I don't believe that a mandate to be vaccinated with penalties or jail time as a consequence would be found to be legal/constitutional, especially if it is comes from the Federal Government.

 

[DisneyCane]

Well, except that the vaccines are not 100% effective, so those that are "out and about" as you say, COULD actually sicken a vulnerable person who had been vaccinated.

I guess it depends on if the results hold where it seems the vaccines are near 100% effective in preventing hospitalizations or deaths. For sure, a vulnerable person can still possibly get COVID but if the worst case is like a bad cold it isn't a concern.

Obviously, more and longer term data is required to confirm that the vaccines remain that effective preventing serious illness or death before the more vulnerable who have been vaccinated can completely let their guard down.

Congrats on your first shot. Glad a forum member was one of the people who was able to take advantage of Walmart's mistake.

 

[DisneyCane]

While I agree that doing LT care, healthcare workers and the elderly first is a good plan to eliminate people more likely to have serious illness I can see the argument that the focus next should be to reduce community spread and also focus on certain demographics like minority communities that are more susceptible to serious illness next. I think waiting on essential and front line retail workers will prolong the excessive community spread, especially in lower income communities. I think the best plan would have probably been do 65+ first and then go on to people who are both an essential worker under 65 and also have a comorbidity. That narrows the essential worker group by at least half but still captures many of the people likely to have serious illness. So a person with a comorbidity who is retried (under 65) or works from home gets less priority than someone with the same medical condition but working outside the home.

The issue in minority communities is when the younger population spreads it to the elderly in those communities. Outreach to the elderly in minority communities to get them to trust the vaccine and get vaccinated is far more helpful in the short term.

Targeting people with comorbidities gets a little difficult because you have to have a reliable way to make sure that the people getting the shots are really the most vulnerable. Maybe have Doctors write a vaccination prescription or something. If you just have people self attest to their comorbidity, you might as well not target that population and just open it to everybody. I personally wouldn't lie to get ahead in line for the same reason that I refuse to use a handicapped parking space for a 3 point turn. I have a superstition that if I do something like that, I'll get afflicted with what I lied about.

 

[GoofGoof]

The issue in minority communities is when the younger population spreads it to the elderly in those communities. Outreach to the elderly in minority communities to get them to trust the vaccine and get vaccinated is far more helpful in the short term.

Targeting people with comorbidities gets a little difficult because you have to have a reliable way to make sure that the people getting the shots are really the most vulnerable. Maybe have Doctors write a vaccination prescription or something. If you just have people self attest to their comorbidity, you might as well not target that population and just open it to everybody. I personally wouldn't lie to get ahead in line for the same reason that I refuse to use a handicapped parking space for a 3 point turn. I have a superstition that if I do something like that, I'll get afflicted with what I lied about.

They are doing 16-64 with health issues in PA right now and they are only requiring an attestation statement at the time of vaccination. People could lie, but it’s a risk that is worth taking to speed up the process. Requiring a doctor’s note requires people to actually have a doctor. No issue for people who have insurance and regularly see a doctor but a lot of people with health issues don‘t go to the doctor all that frequently.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

The variants scare me so much. I have confidence that we will see the very possible worst surge coming in March. The supply isn't good enough to stop these monsters from the UK and South Africa. I wanna be hopeful but that damn supply is holding back so much

 

[Kevin_W]

The variants scare me so much. I have confidence that we will see the very possible worst surge coming in March. The supply isn't good enough to stop these monsters from the UK and South Africa. I wanna be hopeful but that damn supply is holding back so much

I post this every so often, but here is the data from South Africa, without any vaccinations. Cases are down 88% in the past month. the South African variant isn't some instantly-transmissable death sentence like some of the headlines would have you believe.

 

[GoofGoof]

The variants scare me so much. I have confidence that we will see the very possible worst surge coming in March. The supply isn't good enough to stop these monsters from the UK and South Africa. I wanna be hopeful but that damn supply is holding back so much

The variants are here and have been for a while now. There’s a lot of evidence that the surge in cases in CA this winter was at least partially the result of a variant. It is really important that people continue with mitigations. Lower cases means less chance of a mutation and less spread overall. It’s also equally important that everyone get the vaccine as soon as it’s offered to them. Once JnJ is approved that includes getting that vaccine if that’s what is available. I’ve heard too many people say they would rather wait for the “better” vaccine. We can’t afford to have people wait around.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

All that Disney planning came in handy for registration?

Its funny because my mom noted that we tried to get appointments in the same way we try to snag a ticket to the hottest concert in town.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I think there will be another surge. I wasn't so sure a few weeks ago, but now I think its likely. The spring is coming. Spring Break. People are getting vaccinated. The weather will warm up. Spring holidays and get togethers will start to get going. There will be a "YES! The pandemic is basically over," attitude.

I dont think the surge will be as bad as the Christmas surge, but it will definitely have an impact in some regions.

 

[correcaminos]

I think there will be another surge. I wasn't so sure a few weeks ago, but now I think its likely. The spring is coming. Spring Break. People are getting vaccinated. The weather will warm up. Spring holidays and get togethers will start to get going. There will be a "YES! The pandemic is basically over," attitude.

I dont think the surge will be as bad as the Christmas surge, but it will definitely have an impact in some regions.

Spring break has been canceled with some schools for that reason here. Ours is earlier than some. We do not feel the relief as only specific groups have been vaccinated. We canceled ours for the 2nd year in a row.

Since they are so spread out in my area (March-April) and across the US I think a bump and not a surge. Not anymore than winter break for many right now will cause

 

[ABQ]

I updated my spreadsheet calculations for the week of 2/7-2/13:

For the week of 2/7-2/13, there were 48,669 new cases, 741,118 new tests and 6.57% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents an 11.8% decrease in new cases on 3.3% fewer tests with an 8.75% decrease in new case positivity.

The rate of decrease wasn't as rapid as the prior week over week data but so far it is still trending in the right direction.

This visual representation, a couple days later in it's scope, lines up with your data pretty well.

 

[SamusAranX]

Spring break has been canceled with some schools for that reason here. Ours is earlier than some. We do not feel the relief as only specific groups have been vaccinated. We canceled ours for the 2nd year in a row.

Since they are so spread out in my area (March-April) and across the US I think a bump and not a surge. Not anymore than winter break for many right now will cause

Let's just say I will be avoiding most beaches here in Florida in March.

 

[DKampy]

I think there will be another surge. I wasn't so sure a few weeks ago, but now I think its likely. The spring is coming. Spring Break. People are getting vaccinated. The weather will warm up. Spring holidays and get togethers will start to get going. There will be a "YES! The pandemic is basically over," attitude.

I dont think the surge will be as bad as the Christmas surge, but it will definitely have an impact in some regions.

I use to think there may be another surge...but now I am starting to believe we may have a blip of an uptick.. but it won’t be a huge surge. I have a feeling the slowing down of cases is due to the majority of people who were not abiding by the helpfull mitigation efforts already have been infected.

Just about everyone I know who has not been carefull has tested positive for COVID-19. While those who have been carefull have not

 

[correcaminos]

Let's just say I will be avoiding most beaches here in Florida in March.

I ignore them anyway. Though don't forget April as lots have spring break then too! Might be not as bad in March with major universities canceling breaks

We're still trying to visit family in FL we haven't seen since 2019. Fortunately not near a beach. I joke saying since I am fully vaccinated that I'll go without them anyway