oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
History has shown us that there have been chapters of leaders who have endangered their own, this will be another chapter in that book.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Communicora
Premium Member
It also adds to the psychological distress for people who are still being responsible even though they too are suffering. I know people who live on their own who are dealing with severe depression and it is only getting worse the longer this goes on. If more leaders, institutions and people would behave responsibly we could end this sooner and alleviate more suffering.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Oh and here is an article on estimating R0 for covid. The article says it iis between 2 and 3. So Sinovac alone may never get herd immunity. Other mitigations can lower R0 as this article states:
From the above formulas some details emerge:
If Efficacy is 95%(Pfizer/Moderna) and we vaccinate 100% then max R0 is 20.0 (Covid or anything else that exists has that high of R0)
If Efficacy is 80%(JnJ) and we vaccinate 100% then max R0 is 5 (Covid is below this).
What is the efficacy needed if 70% of the people get vaccinated and Covid is at the high end of it's estimated value (3.0): 95.24%. (Slightly above our vaccines )
What is the efficacy needed if 100% of the people get vaccinated and Covid is at the high end of it's estimated value (3.0): 66.67%
If everyone got Moderna or Pfizer vaccine and Covid is at the high end of it's estimated value (3.0) what is the percent of the population that has to be vaccinated to get herd immunity: 70.18%
If everyone got JnJ vaccine and Covid is at the high end of it's estimated value (3.0) what is the percent of the population that has to be vaccinated to get herd immunity: 83.33%
Fun with numbers.
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Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Military:
www.military.com
Civilians:
www.novavax.com
The Military Wants Volunteers to Test Another COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate
The DoD is seeking volunteers near Fort Bragg to participate in the Phase III clinical trials of another coronavirus vaccine.
Civilians:
Pipeline | Novavax
View our developing pipeline of late-stage and early stage assets based on our proven vaccine technology.
www.novavax.com
I’m glad we ended up canceling our Christmas trip. Those crowds were insane and new harsher strains keep being discovered and major cities have run out of beds. I will eventually get the vaccine but won’t pretend like I’m immune to it. So many people are in the comments of people who have received the vaccine are oblivious to the fact that you still have to wear mask and socially distance for awhile or that they you to get 2 doses. Almost a year in and I still see people not wearing masks over their noses. This won’t be over for awhile especially with so much ignorance and selfishness. Trying to get back to normal so fast has made this situation worse. Hopefully there’s some actual national leadership and not ignorant middle school antics that will at least try to stop the new daily high of cases.
The following is attributed to Karen S. Lynch, currently Executive Vice President, CVS Health and President, Aetna, who will become the company's next President and CEO on February 1:
“We agree with President-elect Biden that pharmacies will play a critical role in the next phase of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and appreciate his leadership in the pandemic response. CVS Health has more than 90,000 trained health care professionals standing by, with the capacity to administer approximately one million shots per day through our 10,000 CVS Pharmacy locations across the country once the federal program is fully activated. This will build on our success in providing vaccines to one of the nation’s most vulnerable populations, having administered more than one million shots at long-term care facilities to date.
“We also agree that despite the growing availability of vaccines, wearing a mask, maintaining safe distances and avoiding crowds remain the best ways to slow the spread. These guidelines are based on sound science and will be critical for months to come.”
“We agree with President-elect Biden that pharmacies will play a critical role in the next phase of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and appreciate his leadership in the pandemic response. CVS Health has more than 90,000 trained health care professionals standing by, with the capacity to administer approximately one million shots per day through our 10,000 CVS Pharmacy locations across the country once the federal program is fully activated. This will build on our success in providing vaccines to one of the nation’s most vulnerable populations, having administered more than one million shots at long-term care facilities to date.
“We also agree that despite the growing availability of vaccines, wearing a mask, maintaining safe distances and avoiding crowds remain the best ways to slow the spread. These guidelines are based on sound science and will be critical for months to come.”
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Let capitalism rule. CVS jabs a million people a day and the federal government pays them for each one. CVS makes a nice little profit, the government gets their vaccine program on the right track and we all get to go back to WDW without restrictions. Everyone wins. That’s only CVS. If you add in Walgreens, Walmart, Rite Aid and various other chains we could get to 4 to 5 million jabs a day. Good stuff.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
My only question is this... can they procure the vaccines, given what we've unfortunately learned today?
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The Broward County Mayor (a Democrat just for full context) sent out an email today. In it, he said that his expectation is that all seniors 65 and older in Broward County who wish to be vaccinated will be vaccinated within 5-7 weeks. I assume that means first dose so 8-11 weeks (depending on Pfizer vs. Moderna). If this schedule holds, by April all 65+ in the County who want the vaccine should have both shots and peak immunity should set in by mid April in the most vulnerable population. I would assume that the time frame will be somewhat consistent across the State.
His estimate for everybody who wants a vaccine to have one is June-August. Hopefully it will be at the sooner end.
His estimate for everybody who wants a vaccine to have one is June-August. Hopefully it will be at the sooner end.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
As far as I know the manufacturers are still saying they will reach their projected 2021 targets and we will have 200M doses of both Moderna and Pfizer by end of June (I think the last 30M from Pfizer are slated for July). That covers 200M people and assuming it’s approved JnJ will have its first 100M doses out by end of June as well (They are behind now but said they will catch up by April). That’s 300M people vaccinated by end of June (enough for 90% of the US population). There’s only 260M adults so if no vaccines get further approval for kids we may be building a stockpile over the summer until that approval comes in.
This should also help -
"On Friday, Biden pledged to maximize the available supply of vaccines and materials needed to administer them, using a Cold War-era law called the Defense Production Act to direct private manufacturing."
Biden: We'll 'manage the hell' out of feds' COVID response
WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — President-elect Joe Biden pledged Friday to boost supplies of coronavirus vaccine and set up new vaccination sites to meet his goal of 100 million shots in 100 days.
apnews.com
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
We are back to shortage in supply instead of the ability to jab it in the arms as the primary problem:"Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials, administration officials said, leaving states with little time to implement a mass-vaccination campaign amid a coronavirus surge.
State and local officials had been clamoring for months for help preparing for the largest vaccination program in U.S. history when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a playbook in September to guide them.
The CDC had wanted to start helping states plan in June how to get people vaccinated. But officials at Operation Warp Speed rebuffed the agency’s plan for distributing vaccines. They adopted a similar plan in August only after exploring other options—and then held the release of the CDC’s playbook for states for two weeks for additional clearance and to put it out with another document, the officials said."
“They didn’t plan for the last inch of the last mile, the part that matters most—how you’re going to actually vaccinate that many people quickly,” said Dr. Bruce Gellin, a former Health and Human Services vaccine official and president of global immunization at the Sabin Vaccine Institute.
WSJ News Exclusive | Covid-19 Vaccine Leaders Waited Months to Approve Distribution Plans
State and local officials had been clamoring for months for help preparing for the largest vaccination program in U.S. history when the CDC published a playbook in September to guide them.www.wsj.com
Trump administration accused of deception in pledging release of vaccine stockpile
The governors of several states accused the Trump administration on Friday of deception in pledging to immediately distribute millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses from a stockpile that the U.S. health secretary has since acknowledged does not exist.
www.reuters.com
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Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
DPA should definitely be used whenever the supply chain problems are causing manufacturing or delivery delays. It is already in the arsenal for Covid:[Whether it is not being fully utilized is a different question]This should also help -
"On Friday, Biden pledged to maximize the available supply of vaccines and materials needed to administer them, using a Cold War-era law called the Defense Production Act to direct private manufacturing."
Biden: We'll 'manage the hell' out of feds' COVID response
WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — President-elect Joe Biden pledged Friday to boost supplies of coronavirus vaccine and set up new vaccination sites to meet his goal of 100 million shots in 100 days.
Applying the Defense Production Act | FEMA.gov
www.fema.gov
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Ohio announced their vaccination locations today: oddly not a single CVS or Walgreens. DrugMart, Kroger, and Giant Eagle are the winners of the jab sweepstakes for our state. (And I have 2 of those within a half-mile of my house).
Communicora
Premium Member
Andy Slavitt had the CEO from CVS on his podcast to talk about this. It was an interesting episode.
Toolkit: Where and When Can I Get the Vaccine?
Podcast Episode · In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt · 12/07/2020 · 53m
podcasts.apple.com
I would imagine some would also be distributed through normal clinics for people who have more challenging health issues.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Interesting read here on a path to herd immunity:
news.yahoo.com
Here‘s the model referenced:
How Biden's new COVID-19 vaccination plan could turn the tide of the pandemic
So far, America’s vaccine rollout has been “a dismal failure,” as Biden put it. Yet for all the justified concern over America’s rate of vaccination, signs of hope are starting to emerge.
Path to Normality - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections
We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
covid19-projections.com
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think that’s the way to go. According to the article above, during the peak of annual flu season vaccine campaign, we vaccinate 3M people a day and a lot are done by chain pharmacies. It’s a good path to getting this done. The only difference is it would need to be a multi-month effort vs a month or 2 for the flu.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
From late December:
Retail pharmacies say Americans will look to them for COVID-19 vaccines
Retailers are expecting to play a big role in getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19. Teams from CVS and Walgreens got a vaccination drive underway...
www.dallasnews.com
They are ramping up. But 20 million - 25 million/month is not a proven track record (20 million/year is, but that is pre pandemic). I do hope and expect they will achieve it. They are just one pharmacy chain.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The article above says they have 90,000 workers at 10,000 pharmacy locations which can be ramped up to do 1M vaccinations a day so that’s roughly 30M a month. That’s 100 shots a day per location. Seems like a lot but they said they were hiring 10,000 additional staff to vaccinate people so in theory 1 extra body per store. That’s 12.5 shots an hour assuming they do the vaccinations for 8 hours a day. During the peak it’s conceivable they hit that number if the supply keeps up. Eventually demand will trickle down but hopefully we are in good shape by then.From late December:
Retail pharmacies say Americans will look to them for COVID-19 vaccines
Retailers are expecting to play a big role in getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19. Teams from CVS and Walgreens got a vaccination drive underway...www.dallasnews.com
They are ramping up. But 20 million - 25 million/month is not a proven track record (20 million/year is, but that is pre pandemic). I do hope and expect they will achieve it. They are just one pharmacy chain.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
CVS 25 million / month vaccinations.
10,000 stores
normal pharmacy hours per day = 10
Average 30 days/month
Means each store every day of the week for the full hours of operation must jab someone every 7.2 minutes.
Assuming 15 minutes post observing period, They would have 2 or 3 people properly distanced being observed.
I do not know how long it will take for Paperwork before hand (or if done online not a store problem), but that should be doable.
I do not know how much manpower it takes to prep shots.
But it does seem possible they could do this, but that would be a lot of busy stores.
Of course the old brain teaser applies here:
How many minutes does it take to boil 3 eggs if it takes three minute to boil an egg?
Answer: 3 minutes. You put them all in at the same time.
(Edit: Wrote this before I saw @GoofGoof 's post above. I had assumed 10 hours per store since that is pharmacy normal operating hours of many CVS stores)
10,000 stores
normal pharmacy hours per day = 10
Average 30 days/month
Means each store every day of the week for the full hours of operation must jab someone every 7.2 minutes.
Assuming 15 minutes post observing period, They would have 2 or 3 people properly distanced being observed.
I do not know how long it will take for Paperwork before hand (or if done online not a store problem), but that should be doable.
I do not know how much manpower it takes to prep shots.
But it does seem possible they could do this, but that would be a lot of busy stores.
Of course the old brain teaser applies here:
How many minutes does it take to boil 3 eggs if it takes three minute to boil an egg?
Answer: 3 minutes. You put them all in at the same time.
(Edit: Wrote this before I saw @GoofGoof 's post above. I had assumed 10 hours per store since that is pharmacy normal operating hours of many CVS stores)
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