Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[oceanbreeze77]

Lucked out and got one of the 'extra' doses today. Was opened already and going to go bad. Will let everyone know if I gain superhuman abilities.

can I ask how you came upon it?? Been trying

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Of course this projection assumes that (hopefully) vaccinated and naturally immune people also can't still carry and spread the virus. If they can, herd immunity can never be reached and only the protection from vaccines will keep illness at bay.

Double that should be the goal but "100 million doses in 100 days" sounds better as a political slogan. Nobody's going to complain if it ends up being more but if for some reason he decides to run for reelection at 82 saying "200 million doses in 100 days" and only delivering 190 million is a "failure" to be used in attack ads.

Having only 50 million people vaccinated (both doses) in slightly over 3 months isn't that much higher than the current pace. Yes, it's somewhere around double the shots per day being done now on average but Moderna has only been in the equation part of the time and the rate is constantly increasing.

Come on Joe, if you want to show that Trump was incompetent, aim higher. For the record, although I supported and voted for Trump, I will be more than happy if Biden is able to get vaccines out faster and get us back to normal ASAP.

I have confidence Joe is doing the right steps to end the pandemic. National guard, DPA, FEMA, establishing vaccine centers, all of this seems like solid stuff. The real question is how fast can this all happen? We’re not gonna snap our fingers when he’s inaugurated and it’s over. But I think IF (and it’s a big if) nothing goes too terribly wrong, we could really turn a curve by summer

 

[MisterPenguin]

How can states be running out of doses when most of them have only distributed 40% of what they have received?

How come no source on this problem has yet to lay out on a clear table how many doses have been produced, how many were shipped each week, and who's holding back half the doses so that the 2nd dose may be administered?

Such a breakdown would tell us clearly where the problem is.

All I can find is from the CDC with their list of weekly doses the companies have ready to ship... but the states need to order them. So, no figures on what was ordered and what was actually shipped.

You all know how I love to chart information, but if *I* can't figure it out... someone's holding back the info we all need to see in order to determine who has what.

The doses must flow!

 

[GoofGoof]

CVS 25 million / month vaccinations.
10,000 stores
normal pharmacy hours per day = 10
Average 30 days/month

Means each store every day of the week for the full hours of operation must jab someone every 7.2 minutes.
Assuming 15 minutes post observing period, They would have 2 or 3 people properly distanced being observed.
I do not know how long it will take for Paperwork before hand (or if done online not a store problem), but that should be doable.

I do not know how much manpower it takes to prep shots.

But it does seem possible they could do this, but that would be a lot of busy stores.

Of course the old brain teaser applies here:
How many minutes does it take to boil 3 eggs if it takes three minute to boil an egg?
Answer: 3 minutes. You put them all in at the same time.

(Edit: Wrote this before I saw @GoofGoof 's post above. I had assumed 10 hours per store since that is pharmacy normal operating hours of many CVS stores)

I got my flu shot this year at CVS. Me, my wife and my 2 kids. I filled all the paperwork out online ahead of time. I checked in, the pharmacist came out and did the jabs. The whole time from checkin to finish was less than 10 mins for 4 people so about 2 mins a person. I also think maybe they will have multiple people at certain locations and nobody at others. That speeds it up too.

 

[GoofGoof]

Same....same....

Even though that yahoo article was published today, it still mentions the (now) outdated fact that both Trump and Biden administrations have/had planned to release all the reserve vaccines, thereby doubling the amount being sent to states. Duoh!

My in-laws (Hillsborough Cty) are coming up with nothing still. So frustrating.

The reserve vaccines are not a big deal long term. The only thing it impacts is vaccinations in the next few weeks. It’s not like the manufacturers announced they were cutting the projected doses in half going forward. Big picture it’s not the huge problem people are making it out to be.

 

[Touchdown]

How can states be running out of doses when most of them have only distributed 40% of what they have received?

How come no source on this problem has yet to lay out on a clear table how many doses have been produced, how many were shipped each week, and who's holding back half the doses so that the 2nd dose may be administered?

Such a breakdown would tell us clearly where the problem is.

All I can find is from the CDC with their list of weekly doses the companies have ready to ship... but the states need to order them. So, no figures on what was ordered and what was actually shipped.

You all know how I love to chart information, but if *I* can't figure it out... someone's holding back the info we all need to see in order to determine who has what.

The doses must flow!

Something that has not been well reported or even explained is that all state totals include vaccines set aside for Skilled Nursing Facilities that the federal govt will distribute directly to those facilities, using CVS and Walgreens. The states with high vaccine use have vaccinated most of their nursing homes, and the low states have not. It takes time and manpower to go to those sites (as people there are so disabled they can’t leave) and the numbers vaccinated are not broken down between those residents and non residents. As we move forward and vaccines become more numerous those shots will become less statistically significant but now they are skewing numbers. Need some visual proof? Here’s my states vaccine numbers (WI) via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Note the large outlined box, we have no idea what the breakdown of shots in arm from the nursing home population or the healthcare workers. It’s not an excuse, but as the states move to 1b I expect the amount of vaccines “in freezers” as a percent should drop significantly in the next few weeks.

 

[Polkadotdress]

How can states be running out of doses when most of them have only distributed 40% of what they have received?

How come no source on this problem has yet to lay out on a clear table how many doses have been produced, how many were shipped each week, and who's holding back half the doses so that the 2nd dose may be administered?

Such a breakdown would tell us clearly where the problem is.

All I can find is from the CDC with their list of weekly doses the companies have ready to ship... but the states need to order them. So, no figures on what was ordered and what was actually shipped.

You all know how I love to chart information, but if *I* can't figure it out... someone's holding back the info we all need to see in order to determine who has what.

The doses must flow!

Yes, this!

I am alternately outraged that there are not MORE doses coming quickly...yet also outraged that the states (my state) hasn't yet used what has been alloted to it. Like I little kid, I WANT more, but yet I DON'T want more.

Basically, I'm just frustrated and angry all around.

 

[HarperRose]

I think that is wildly optimistic and given the past performance it might be construed as a bald faced lie on their part.

I 100% guarantee you, there is absolutely no way the entire adult population will be vaccinated by June. Not. A. Chance.

 

[HarperRose]

I’ve really reached a juncture. On average, at least 3 people are getting infected with COVID every second. January 2021. I’ve tried to be understanding but at this point, I’m done with selfish people. I can’t understand people making inessential travel.

Unless gatherings, work, and travel are essential or absolutely socially distanced in the true meaning of the guidelines (especially if you have the privilege to make those choices), you’re complicit in the possible long-term health effects of another person’s diagnosis or in their death. True colors are coming out, all in the ridiculous defense that they’re “fatigued” and in my opinion, weak. The utter disregard for the rest of us, especially those without health insurance, is not amongst the American values my parents instilled in me.

 

[Disney Experience]

Nice paper on R0 number for Covid in the various states (and various times). (These will change if UK or similar variant gets dominate)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3.full.pdf

New York's R0 =6.4 would actually require 88.82% but the paper is close enough.

One interesting effect of New York’s estimated R0 of 6.4 (paper I linked earlier) is that if JnJ has an efficacy of 80% New York will not achieve herd immunity if most New Yorkers get JnJ instead of Pfizer or Moderna. Even with 100% pop vaccinated. They would have to get R0 lower through other mitigations.
Whether they can achieve herd immunity will deoend on actual blended value of efficacy of vaccinated population/recovered, and R0 as modified for the state’s factors.

Most states R0 for covid is closer to 2 or 3 and pure JnJ with enough %pop vaccinated would work.

 

[Incomudro]

I’ve really reached a juncture. On average, at least 3 people are getting infected with COVID every second. January 2021. I’ve tried to be understanding but at this point, I’m done with selfish people. I can’t understand people making inessential travel.

Unless gatherings, work, and travel are essential or absolutely socially distanced in the true meaning of the guidelines (especially if you have the privilege to make those choices), you’re complicit in the possible long-term health effects of another person’s diagnosis or in their death. True colors are coming out, all in the ridiculous defense that they’re “fatigued” and in my opinion, weak. The utter disregard for the rest of us, especially those without health insurance, is not amongst the American values my parents instilled in me.

You've tried to understand the nature of the human species being the social animal that they are, but are no longer willing to accept that people don't want to be apart from each other and will reach a breaking point?
How long do you want kids to not play?
It's an essential part of development.
Young people to not socialize, and find love interests?
Old people - and I l know many of them - who want to get on with their lives, see their grandchildren, go to the park, shop... even at the risk of cutting their own lives short.

 

[Chi84]

I 100% guarantee you, there is absolutely no way the entire adult population will be vaccinated by June. Not. A. Chance.

There were a whole lot of people who gave the same guarantee about developing a vaccine (any kind of vaccine, let alone a highly effective one) by November 2020.

 

[GoofGoof]

Something that has not been well reported or even explained is that all state totals include vaccines set aside for Skilled Nursing Facilities that the federal govt will distribute directly to those facilities, using CVS and Walgreens. The states with high vaccine use have vaccinated most of their nursing homes, and the low states have not. It takes time and manpower to go to those sites (as people there are so disabled they can’t leave) and the numbers vaccinated are not broken down between those residents and non residents. As we move forward and vaccines become more numerous those shots will become less statistically significant but now they are skewing numbers. Need some visual proof? Here’s my states vaccine numbers (WI) via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

View attachment 524557
Note the large outlined box, we have no idea what the breakdown of shots in arm from the nursing home population or the healthcare workers. It’s not an excuse, but as the states move to 1b I expect the amount of vaccines “in freezers” as a percent should drop significantly in the next few weeks.

View attachment 524562

I think it’s a huge factor. The logistics of unpacking the vaccine, thawing it out, watering It down, and prepping the individual vials for injection takes some time. When you do that for small facilities like a nursing home you lose economies of scale. The teams need to be sent to each facility vs having the masses come to one site or many sites. I think once they open the floodgates and the population authorized to be vaccinated increases in size it becomes easier and much more efficient. That’s why we have ramped up towards 1M people a day and will likely get better as time goes on. Only about half the states have expanded outside of the 1a which is just healthcare and nursing homes.

I think if we ramp up to 2M people a day that means 1M new vaccinations and 1M second doses each day. Then we are on pace to do 30M new people a month. That also puts us over 100M people vaccinated by May 1 which seems to be the new target laid out and at that pace 165M by the end of June from Pfizer and Moderna. Assuming the JnJ vaccine gets approved and the states can ramp up to 3M doses a day (our peak rate vaccinated during flu season) you get to 265M people vaccinated by June 30 which is 80% of the US population. There’s open issues with kids under 12 not in a trial yet, but outside that issue there’s a clear path to at least having every adult who wants a vaccine vaccinated by June. The only thing to prevent that is public will or manufacturing delays. We absolutely have the resources and infrastructure to vaccinate that many people by then.

 

[Dutch Inn '76]

There were a whole lot of people who gave the same guarantee about developing a vaccine (any kind of vaccine, let alone a highly effective one) by November 2020.

The difference here is that probably half of the population isn't in a hurry to get the vaccine *because they don't trust it.* A lot of them will reluctantly take it (me included), but probably 20% will outright refuse it. Maybe more.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[DisneyCane]

I 100% guarantee you, there is absolutely no way the entire adult population will be vaccinated by June. Not. A. Chance.

Vaccinated, probably not. Enough doses to vaccinate, very possible.

Capacity to inject must increase significantly. Once J&J is online, if you assume 1/3 of the shots are one dose, Joe's goal is only 666k complete series per day. If you assume 200 million left to vaccinate when J&J comes online that's 10 months which takes us to February 2022.

If the vaccines are effective enough in preventing severe illness, you don't need nearly all adults vaccinated to minimize deaths and strain on the healthcare system.

Although there is a minimum to reach herd immunity, as the percentage vaccinated increase it should also lower the R0 somewhat which should reduce cases even among the unvaccinated.

 

[Chi84]

The difference here is that probably half of the population isn't in a hurry to get the vaccine *because they don't trust it.* A lot of them will reluctantly take it (me included), but probably 20% will outright refuse it. Maybe more.

We don't know that 100% either. The vaccine, when available to all, will allow those who choose to get it to go about their lives without undue worry or restrictions. It should also free up hospital space for those who choose COVID instead.

 

[Jrb1979]

We don't know that 100% either. The vaccine, when available to all, will allow those who choose to get it to go about their lives without undue worry or restrictions. It should also free up hospital space for those who choose COVID instead.

That only works if enough people get vaccinated or they go the route of requiring proof of vaccination. Either way I doubt much will change before the end of the year

 

[GoofGoof]

I 100% guarantee you, there is absolutely no way the entire adult population will be vaccinated by June. Not. A. Chance.

I 100% guarantee there is absolutely no way the entire adult population is vaccinated ever. In the latest polling 20% of people still say they will never get the vaccine. Best case is 80% vaccinated but probably 70-75% would be good depending on if/when children get approved. It’s still conceivable to have 200M+ vaccinated by end of June. It would be really difficult to achieve with just Pfizer and Moderna alone, you would need flawless manufacturing and delivery for 6 months which is unlikely, but you have JnJ, AstraZeneca, and Novavax all also potentially getting approved between now and the end of June. It’s too soon to say whether we will have the supply to meet that goal. Too many variables.

On the vaccination side I think it’s conceivable to ramp up quickly. We are fast approaching 1M vaccinations a day and most of the large chains aren’t even involved yet. In that article posted earlier, CVS alone said they have the capacity to do 1M shots a day so its conceivable that when you add in all the other chains you could double that and then add in large stadium sites and/or hospitals or medical centers doing it and I don’t think it’s far fetched to assume we could ramp up to 3M vaccinations a day. As posted earlier that’s the peak level of daily vaccinations for flu shots so we have reached that level without billions in federal funding. If we have the doses, once this is ramped up fully I think it will be supply delays that will cause bottlenecks not inability to vaccinate fast enough.

 

[GoofGoof]

That only works if enough people get vaccinated or they go the route of requiring proof of vaccination. Either way I doubt much will change before the end of the year

Anything involving proof of vaccination is likely not going to happen until the fall, possibly end of summer at the earliest. I could actually see the NFL being one of the first major public venues that require it. They are for sure going to want to have full crowds next season and if the public health trend isn’t there yet to do that without restriction that would be a place I could see requiring proof. I do wonder if colleges will require it. That would almost be a no brainer since they are desperate to get back to full on campus learning. Obviously things like cruise lines would be on board and also likely international travel too. I don’t see a time where things like retail stores or bars/clubs require it. More like one off, unique situations where you are at highest risk of exposure. I am hopeful it never comes to this anyway and enough people get vaccinated that it never becomes an issue to need proof. I do agree it will be a while before anyone implements that.