Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

CVS 25 million / month vaccinations.
10,000 stores
normal pharmacy hours per day = 10
Average 30 days/month

Means each store every day of the week for the full hours of operation must jab someone every 7.2 minutes.
Assuming 15 minutes post observing period, They would have 2 or 3 people properly distanced being observed.
I do not know how long it will take for Paperwork before hand (or if done online not a store problem), but that should be doable.

I do not know how much manpower it takes to prep shots.

But it does seem possible they could do this, but that would be a lot of busy stores.

Of course the old brain teaser applies here:
How many minutes does it take to boil 3 eggs if it takes three minute to boil an egg?
Answer: 3 minutes. You put them all in at the same time.

(Edit: Wrote this before I saw @GoofGoof 's post above. I had assumed 10 hours per store since that is pharmacy normal operating hours of many CVS stores)

 

[Heppenheimer]

Andy Slavitt had the CEO from CVS on his podcast to talk about this. It was an interesting episode.

Toolkit: Where and When Can I Get the Vaccine?

Podcast Episode · In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt · 12/07/2020 · 53m

podcasts.apple.com

I would imagine some would also be distributed through normal clinics for people who have more challenging health issues.

Oddly enough, the clinics run by our hospital have no plans to give the vaccine, at least for now. We will, however, contribute manpower to the state's mass vaccination sites.

 

[Patcheslee]

CVS 25 million / month vaccinations.
10,000 stores
normal pharmacy hours per day = 10
Average 30 days/month

Means each store every day of the week for the full hours of operation must jab someone every 7.2 minutes.
Assuming 15 minutes post observing period, They would have 2 or 3 people properly distanced being observed.
I do not know how long it will take for Paperwork before hand (or if done online not a store problem), but that should be doable.

I do not know how much manpower it takes to prep shots.

But it does seem possible they could do this, but that would be a lot of busy stores.

Of course the old brain teaser applies here:
How many minutes does it take to boil 3 eggs if it takes one minute to boil an egg?
Answer: 3 minutes. You put them all in at the same time.

(Edit: Wrote this before I saw @GoofGoof 's post above. I had assumed 10 hours per store since that is pharmacy normal operating hours of many CVS stores)

We have 2 CVS and a Walgreens in our tiny county alone. It would be 190 days at 100/location to get 80% of our population 12 and older with just those alone. Health department can do 50/day, and a Walmart in town that could do distribution as well.
There's plenty of options if we can get the storage facilities required.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

The Biden plan for the vaccine is bold. But he could seriously do better than 100 million in 100 days. But for the time being I suppose it is a realistic goal to end it this year

 

[Disney Experience]

‘Tourists’ are flying to Florida to score COVID-19 vaccine early

Seniors are jetting off to Florida — but it’s not warm weather they’re seeking.

www.foxnews.com

Governor Ron DeSantis insisted on Tuesday that the state would not allow one-time visitors arriving for the vaccine, clarifying that so-called "snowbirds," or dual-state residents who weather their winters in the South, would be permitted,

The DOH stressed that vaccine tourism, those who "come into Florida for one day to receive the vaccine and leave the next," is prohibited. They’re asking that "all suspected incidents … immediately" be reported to a local health department branch.

When news broke earlier this week that Yanina Latorre, an Argentinian television personality, had enlisted fans to help bring her 80-year-old mother to Miami for the vaccine, Miami’s Mayor Francis Suarez vowed to take action.

In Miami, the Jackson Health System, a network of more than 40 hospitals and health centers, stated they’re taking all measures to verify state residency among vaccine recipients, but they won’t turn away part-time residents, either.

"Regardless of where someone lives, if they are spending time in our community — on our beaches, in our restaurants, in our malls — they can be spreaders of this virus," they said in a statement.

Seems reasonable. Looks like vaccine tourism is not going to be allowed.

Orlando Sentinel has limited number of free articles:

DeSantis says ‘we’re not doing any tourists’ at vaccine sites

Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state is not open to tourists seeking vaccinations at its COVID-19 sites in a press conference from The Villages on Tuesday. DeSantis’ visit to the retirement mecca…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Interesting read here on a path to herd immunity:

How Biden's new COVID-19 vaccination plan could turn the tide of the pandemic

So far, America’s vaccine rollout has been “a dismal failure,” as Biden put it. Yet for all the justified concern over America’s rate of vaccination, signs of hope are starting to emerge.

news.yahoo.com

Here‘s the model referenced:

Path to Normality - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections

We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

covid19-projections.com

Of course this projection assumes that (hopefully) vaccinated and naturally immune people also can't still carry and spread the virus. If they can, herd immunity can never be reached and only the protection from vaccines will keep illness at bay.

The Biden plan for the vaccine is bold. But he could seriously do better than 100 million in 100 days. But for the time being I suppose it is a realistic goal to end it this year

Double that should be the goal but "100 million doses in 100 days" sounds better as a political slogan. Nobody's going to complain if it ends up being more but if for some reason he decides to run for reelection at 82 saying "200 million doses in 100 days" and only delivering 190 million is a "failure" to be used in attack ads.

Having only 50 million people vaccinated (both doses) in slightly over 3 months isn't that much higher than the current pace. Yes, it's somewhere around double the shots per day being done now on average but Moderna has only been in the equation part of the time and the rate is constantly increasing.

Come on Joe, if you want to show that Trump was incompetent, aim higher. For the record, although I supported and voted for Trump, I will be more than happy if Biden is able to get vaccines out faster and get us back to normal ASAP.

 

[correcaminos]

Ohio announced their vaccination locations today: oddly not a single CVS or Walgreens. DrugMart, Kroger, and Giant Eagle are the winners of the jab sweepstakes for our state. (And I have 2 of those within a half-mile of my house).

We have been watching for my dad (75+) in our county there are a couple other locations along with some hospitals/healthcare places as well. I put my dad on the DrugMart list (never heard of them tbh). GE and Kroger are not signing up at this time. Private pharmacies have been told they will get them as well. So my dad is on about 5 lists at this time LOL Plus we will try next week for the county when 75+ opens up. Only 80+ were able to sign up with the county location.

i was a bit shocked about CVS as they were sending me info all the time about being a location. I don't really care as GE & Kroger are closer to my dad than CVS, but not by much. Need to look up Drug Mart more. He's happy to drive anywhere in the county though.

 

[techgeek]

My 90yo grandmother called this evening and let me know she was able to get her first Covid vaccine this afternoon at Publix... my aunt snagged a appointment for her on a availability drop earlier in the week.

She was very excited and reported no issues at all, they were very organized and she was in and out (with 15 min observation) - along with a appointment for her second dose in Feb.

Made my evening and gave a ray of hope that the wheels are actually turning!

 

[Jrb1979]

CDC says U.K. coronavirus variant could become predominant strain in U.S. by March

Though fewer than 100 cases of the variant have been detected in the U.S., models project "rapid growth" in coming months.

www.nbcnews.com

If this happens a lot will change.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

So are they saying you don't need a re-do as long as you get the first within 40 days, or that you never need a re-do?

They say that the CDC says that there is no maximum interval, but it seems like they're sticking to 28-40 days for their scheduling here. I can't imagine that there's no such thing as too long between shots if immunity doesn't last for life, though.

 

[Tinkwings]

My 90yo grandmother called this evening and let me know she was able to get her first Covid vaccine this afternoon at Publix... my aunt snagged a appointment for her on a availability drop earlier in the week.

She was very excited and reported no issues at all, they were very organized and she was in and out (with 15 min observation) - along with a appointment for her second dose in Feb.

Made my evening and gave a ray of hope that the wheels are actually turning!

My inlaws have appointment next week! Their doctors office called them to inform them.....how easy was that?

 

[Disney Experience]

Nice paper on R0 number for Covid in the various states (and various times). (These will change if UK or similar variant gets dominate)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3.full.pdf

Estimates of R0 reveal the potential threat of epidemics when restrictions are eased, as well as the potential challenges for vaccination campaigns: using the rule of thumb that a proportion 1 – 1/R0 of a population needs to be vaccinated (but see Gerberry and Philip 2016), vaccination coverage will have to be roughly 60% on average among the States we analyzed (Fig. 1C). This, however, is misleading, because it does not consider the variation among States, and for New York State the R0 = 6.4 suggests a vaccination rate of 85%. Furthermore, recommendations for vaccinations should also vary within States. Our initial R0 estimates are driven mainly by "hotspots" within States, like New York City, where deaths increased most rapidly. More generally, we caution that vaccination programs must consider not only local infection rates but also movement of infected individuals between States

New York's R0 =6.4 would actually require 88.82% but the paper is close enough.

 

[DisneyCane]

CDC says U.K. coronavirus variant could become predominant strain in U.S. by March

Though fewer than 100 cases of the variant have been detected in the U.S., models project "rapid growth" in coming months.

www.nbcnews.com

If this happens a lot will change.

What do you think will change?

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Disney Experience]

What do you think will change?

Percent vaccinated or recovered will have to go up to get herd immunity if it dominates before herd immunity has significant impact

 

[Polkadotdress]

What does that even mean anymore? Sorry if I’m a bit higher strung than usual today.

Same....same....

Interesting read here on a path to herd immunity:

How Biden's new COVID-19 vaccination plan could turn the tide of the pandemic

So far, America’s vaccine rollout has been “a dismal failure,” as Biden put it. Yet for all the justified concern over America’s rate of vaccination, signs of hope are starting to emerge.

news.yahoo.com

Here‘s the model referenced:

Path to Normality - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections

We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

covid19-projections.com

Even though that yahoo article was published today, it still mentions the (now) outdated fact that both Trump and Biden administrations have/had planned to release all the reserve vaccines, thereby doubling the amount being sent to states. Duoh!

My inlaws have appointment next week!

My in-laws (Hillsborough Cty) are coming up with nothing still. So frustrating.

 

[jmp85]

Lucked out and got one of the 'extra' doses today. Was opened already and going to go bad. Will let everyone know if I gain superhuman abilities.

 

[correcaminos]

Same....same....

Even though that yahoo article was published today, it still mentions the (now) outdated fact that both Trump and Biden administrations have/had planned to release all the reserve vaccines, thereby doubling the amount being sent to states. Duoh!

My in-laws (Hillsborough Cty) are coming up with nothing still. So frustrating.

They were quick to book up when we tried. Have you tried nearby counties?

 

[seabreezept813]

I think that’s the way to go. According to the article above, during the peak of annual flu season vaccine campaign, we vaccinate 3M people a day and a lot are done by chain pharmacies. It’s a good path to getting this done. The only difference is it would need to be a multi-month effort vs a month or 2 for the flu.

In addition to the many employers offer flu clinics. I know us folks in the education sector are hoping the school nurse can do the covid vaccines on site, but we’ll see if it gets that organized.

 

[SamusAranX]

There are people who don’t know they’re at risk. There are people who aren’t “at risk”. What about them? Should they not travel?

Also, do you have insurance and/or the means to deal with possible hospitalization?

Yes I have insurance and savings. I also quarantined before leaving. I didn’t want to accidentally spread covid at all. Wore a mask during travel, cooked our own meals or did Togo rather then eating inside. Did not visit any bars or clubs or indoor gatherings. But I know many can’t; they have to work, get kids to school, etc. so it’s just not feasible to quarantine. I mean I suppose you could take a rapid test but then there are accuracy issues (which is why I did a PCR swab test when I got home rather then the free rapid; tested negative)

I’m fortunate but I know others aren’t. It’s very tough. But in the end, yes if you can’t or aren’t willing take the responsible measures then no you shouldn’t travel. I apologize if that seems hypocritical or “what’s good for the goose”.