Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[xdan0920]

Nobody ever said 1 death is more or less important than another. But if you think they're equal in numbers than you're not paying attention to what's going on. This is much more dangerous than the flu and the fact that it's more than doubled the average annual flu deaths in this country should be enough to prove that and stop the comparisons. Suicides are terrible, but show some evidence that says they've outnumbered the amount of lives saved by lockdowns slowing the spread of this virus. I doubt there have been that many more suicides during this period than during similar periods in prior years. As a whole, more lives have been saved from these measures than have been lost.

Show me evidence lockdowns have saved anyone.

 

[Andrew C]

Seems a very sensible approach.

What is that number based on though? Seems rather arbitrary and I don’t think it aligns with CDC recommendations. So what is the justification for this and how does it align with what we know, including the unintended consequences of keeping schools closed? I would hope the state considered all components. But I have my doubts.

 

[Jwink]

What I find interesting is that Miami-Dade has the most stringent restrictions for the longest since the surge started yet is barely moving the needle in going down.

Yeah but if people are going in to Miami who aren’t protecting themselves before... or visiting family unmasked... there’s also the fact that NYC didn’t trend down until stay at home orders for a long time

 

[The Mom]

What I find interesting is that Miami-Dade has the most stringent restrictions for the longest since the surge started yet is barely moving the needle in going down.

There are several reasons for this.

Population density is one. The few times they tried reopening people totally ignored any sort social distancing, mask wearing, etc. so things spread. And people who would ordinarily meet up in bars and restaurants are just gathering at each other's homes. Yes, they are not supposed to have large gatherings, but there is no way (or no will) to enforce this. All of these things combine to make it harder to control spread.

I also do not know if the hospitalizations at Miami hospitals is broken down so the correct county is listed. There have been large outbreaks in rural areas adjacent due to prisons and workers not being distanced, but they are transported to the Miami area.

Many rural FL counties also have an unusually high % of positive cases per population. They are counties with prisons and worker's barracks where people are in 24/7 proximity.

 

[mmascari]

Interesting. Even after all this time I can't say I fully understand how testing and % positivity works (aside from low being better!). So if we want schools to open all the healthy people should run out and get tests to drive % positive down?

Aside from pre-surgical cases and athletes, who is being tested to drive the 95% negative goal? Contacts of people that are positive? (Proving whether measures work or not.) Routine tests for front-line workers? (I haven't heard of this happening in my state.)

It's a measure of community spread and if we have a handle on where the virus is or if it's just everywhere in the community.

Yes, we should be testing everyone who had a contact with someone who tested positive. Then, each of those that test positive repeat until there are not more positives. Isolating all of the positives. This cycle needs to be fast enough to be practical. Still some will slip through.

Yes, we should be doing some level of random surveillance testing in the community to catch things that slipped through. Also fast enough to execute the tracing loop on a positive result.

A higher % positive, the more general community spread is occurring. A lower number means there's a better handle on isolating and reducing the spread.

If we could have everyone go out and get a test, isolate until they got result, then continue to isolate if they're negative, that would be wonderful. We would know where the infection was and could contain it. The problem is, "everyone" is a really big number, and there's no way to do it fast enough. When we talk about increasing capacity, we're talking about solving this and solving it at speed. While we report on the raw number of tests, we're not reporting on the speed. Without the speed, we're missing half the picture, and it certainly feels like our testing capacity isn't performing at the level the raw numbers would suggest it should be.

It's a basic OODA loop. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

We're trying to see an infection, isolate, trace, test, repeat. The virus is trying to infect, jump to next host, repeat. Whichever loop is faster determines the speed of the spread.

 

[GoofGoof]

There are several reasons for this.

Population density is one. The few times they tried reopening people totally ignored any sort social distancing, mask wearing, etc. so things spread. And people who would ordinarily meet up in bars and restaurants are just gathering at each other's homes. Yes, they are not supposed to have large gatherings, but there is no way (or no will) to enforce this. All of these things combine to make it harder to control spread.

I also do not know if the hospitalizations at Miami hospitals is broken down so the correct county is listed. There have been large outbreaks in rural areas adjacent due to prisons and workers not being distanced, but they are transported to the Miami area.

Many rural FL counties also have an unusually high % of positive cases per population. They are counties with prisons and worker's barracks where people are in 24/7 proximity.

This is all true. To add to it the county is also not an island and doesn’t have fences or walls around it so even if bars are closed there when a neighboring county opened bars (or theme parks for that matter) it was easy enough for people to travel in. I had seen some stories about boats also being used instead of physical bars. It’s really hard to stop all the possible ways people will gather. The people need to make smarter choices.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Is this the CDC recommendation or a Fauci recommendation for reopening schools?

If I remember correctly, one of the docs on the planning team for my state said 10% is manageable. At the time I think the big cities were at 7-8%. Now they're double that. They're coming down, thankfully, albeit slowly.

 

[mmascari]

What is that number based on though? Seems rather arbitrary and I don’t think it aligns with CDC recommendations.

The CDC guideline has different recommendations based on the level of "community transmission". I can't find a definition of the levels, which could mean I'm just not searching correctly. Only that the local heath department should determine it. Those numbers are how the decided to determine if they're No Spread, Minimal, Moderate, or Substantial.

They sound reasonable for a goal of No Spread or Minimal. I'm sure there's lots of opinions on where the lines are between these. But, we probably all agree that over 10% is in Substantial territory.

 

[GoofGoof]

The CDC guideline has different recommendations based on the level of "community transmission". I can't find a definition of the levels, which could mean I'm just not searching correctly. Only that the local heath department should determine it. Those numbers are how the decided to determine if they're No Spread, Minimal, Moderate, or Substantial.

They sound reasonable for a goal of No Spread or Minimal. I'm sure there's lots of opinions on where the lines are between these. But, we probably all agree that over 10% is in Substantial territory.

I thought I had read somewhere that the level they consider substantial spread is over 10% percent positive but that may have been a local thing and not from the CDC. Considering the original re-opening criteria for entering phase 1 has typically been under 5% and schools couldn’t open before phase 1 an argument can be made that physical school should only happen in areas with a percent positive under 5%. Of course if school opening is that important to people then maybe we should have spent more time and effort on ramping up testing/tracing and we should have pulled back on some other public interactions in an attempt to get below that level. It’s like the guy who says he wants to lose 25 pounds and get ripped who talks a big game but then instead of hitting the gym and eating right sits on the couch watching TV and eating potato chips.

 

[MisterPenguin]

NY State's positivity is down to 1%. NJ's is 1.5%.

 

[Horizons '83]

Show me evidence lockdowns have saved anyone.

Common Sense.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Common Sense.

And the experience in Europe, the Northeast, Canada, Asia and everywhere else that did a hard lock-down.

 

[Flugell]

NY State's positivity is down to 1%. NJ's is 1.5%.

This should also be proof of the effectiveness of lockdowns!

 

[Horizons '83]

This should also be proof of the effectiveness of lockdowns!

Don't come in here with your facts and rationale reasoning

 

[October82]

Their labs are all being converted into COVID development centers, and all those costs will be covered through the funding. So their typical operating expenses are significantly decreased. Therefore, profits will be up, and bonuses will be paid.

...and a lot of their other R&D is on hold while they focus on Covid so potential lost profits down the road. If the 2 options are wait 3 to 5 years for a vaccine the normal way or have the government spend a billion each on the 5 front runners and get the vaccine way sooner then it’s money well spent. 5 billion is a drop in the bucket when we are spending trillions on bailout bills.

The average R&D cost on a new pharmaceutical is between $2 and $3 billion, usually spread over a ~decade. Since we don't know which one will be effective, we need to fund the development of a large number in order to have 1-2 be successful. We then have to simultaneously develop the manufacturing infrastructure, which is different for each possible vaccine candidate. It typically takes many years to build the manufacturing and distribution, which also costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

The majority of vaccines being developed will fail to be effective and generate no earnings for the companies that pursue them. Science is hard. Medicine and biology particularly so. Vaccines do not make money, and as was mentioned earlier in the thread, this is why they're government funded.

Considering the cost of all this is in the trillions of dollars to the global economy, the idea that the coronavirus is somehow a conspiracy produced by big Pharma really isn't plausible. It wouldn't be suggested if people had any idea how scientific research works, how much it costs, and how difficult it is. It's a problem of scale.

 

[tkeerl]

I love Disney. I am a annual passholder currently living in Indiana and we have a condo in Ft Myers for the winter. I had booked Boardwalk Inn in early October for a week but was given a late notice that its closed during that period. Was nervous to rebook during same time so booked Boardwalk in January during our car trip to Ft Myers for rest of winter. We got regular rates of ~$630/night instead of the rates of $470 for similiar room - screw job. Now I am seeing clues that it is again closed in January. The Disney site says that an official offer would be sent to people booking in closed resorts - I have not yet received anything. What is my best tactic?

 

[Horizons '83]

I love Disney. I am a annual passholder currently living in Indiana and we have a condo in Ft Myers for the winter. I had booked Boardwalk Inn in early October for a week but was given a late notice that its closed during that period. Was nervous to rebook during same time so booked Boardwalk in January during our car trip to Ft Myers for rest of winter. We got regular rates of ~$630/night instead of the rates of $470 for similiar room - screw job. Now I am seeing clues that it is again closed in January. The Disney site says that an official offer would be sent to people booking in closed resorts - I have not yet received anything. What is my best tactic?

In all honesty, there really isn't a great tactic. Things are changing everyday. If I were you, i'd book a resort that is currently operational or will be this year. The Yacht Club might be a good option as well if you want to stay in the Epcot area. That one will be open in that October time frame as well.

 

[toolsnspools]

The average R&D cost on a new pharmaceutical is between $2 and $3 billion, usually spread over a ~decade. Since we don't know which one will be effective, we need to fund the development of a large number in order to have 1-2 be successful. We then have to simultaneously develop the manufacturing infrastructure, which is different for each possible vaccine candidate. It typically takes many years to build the manufacturing and distribution, which also costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

The majority of vaccines being developed will fail to be effective and generate no earnings for the companies that pursue them. Science is hard. Medicine and biology particularly so. Vaccines do not make money, and as was mentioned earlier in the thread, this is why they're government funded.

Considering the cost of all this is in the trillions of dollars to the global economy, the idea that the coronavirus is somehow a conspiracy produced by big Pharma really isn't plausible. It wouldn't be suggested if people had any idea how scientific research works, how much it costs, and how difficult it is. It's a problem of scale.

The disease itself is not a conspiracy theory. That's obvious, and not part of what I've said. Now that the money is flowing, there are many people who will try to shift the flow of that money, and take advantage of it. If the means discrediting a valid treatment option so you can have access to a larger piece of the pie, they will.

If standard R&D budgets are $2 - $3 billion per decade, that is $200 - $300 million that doesn't have to be spent this year, because its replaced by COVID funding. If the R&D for other products is delayed for a year, nobody will notice or care. We are delaying the education of an entire generation by a year.

 

[Horizons '83]

The disease itself is not a conspiracy theory. That's obvious, and not part of what I've said. Now that the money is flowing, there are many people who will try to shift the flow of that money, and take advantage of it. If the means discrediting a valid treatment option so you can have access to a larger piece of the pie, they will.

If standard R&D budgets are $2 - $3 billion per decade, that is $200 - $300 million that doesn't have to be spent this year, because its replaced by COVID funding. If the R&D for other products is delayed for a year, nobody will notice or care. We are delaying the education of an entire generation by a year.

I didn't have high hopes for them anyway

 

[xdan0920]

Common Sense.

So there is no evidence. Got it.

And the experience in Europe, the Northeast, Canada, Asia and everywhere else that did a hard lock-down.

The northeast. You mean the area with the highest death rate in the country. Good example. Or Europe. England, Italy, Spain, great job guys! Asia, Japan didn’t lock down at all. Cool cool. Good examples. Lockdowns work.