Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

You know, the bike enthusiast who came up with that graph thinks it's possible that lockdowns *increase* the spread of COVID.

View attachment 488138


Got any peer reviewed data?

Good to know he is a Charted Financial Analyst (CFA) too. Amazing graphing skills, terrible common sense skills.

 

[Jrb1979]

So there is no evidence. Got it.

The northeast. You mean the area with the highest death rate in the country. Good example. Or Europe. England, Italy, Spain, great job guys! Asia, Japan didn’t lock down at all. Cool cool. Good examples. Lockdowns work.

Funny you ignored Canada cause it worked here. It also helped that our government have been giving people $2000 a month for people who are affected by Covid-19. Its not tax free though.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

So, that’s evidence they don’t work. Since you can’t lockdown indefinitely.

1. That's evidence that they do work. Also, see my other post about the NJ trends following the lockdown. They started declining about 3 weeks after the lockdown, which accounts for the incubation period and the time it takes to get test results.

2. You're right, you can't lock down indefinitely, but if you do it right then you can slow the spread enough to where it's not as severe of a problem. Look at how NJ and NY have opened (slowly) vs. Florida (quickly). FL had the chance to learn from the northeast. Instead, they ignored what worked up here and the northeast took the opportunity to learn from FL's mistakes (not allowing indoor dining and bars to open back up after seeing what happened in FL).

 

[Andrew C]

Today, Fauci stated the reason that our curve didn’t initially drop from the peak as much as Europe is that we essentially did a 50% lockdown while Europe did a 90% lockdown. Therefore, our baseline cases ended up higher. My question is, what would our baseline have looked like if we didn’t do a lockdown but rather just did the typical social distancing efforts and mask wearing (maybe similar to Sweden)? Would we have received the same results. Just curious. Also, what would a 90% lockdown have looked like here and would it have been a feasible consideration? Remember earlier on, we had 15 days to slow the spread. Then 30 days to slow the spread while allowing states to put in stricter measures. And then reopening guidelines, which were followed by some states but not others. Or only partially followed.

Also, we know the virus impacted the northeast earlier than some of the southern states like Florida. Just a different timetable. However, all locked down essentially at the same time. What if Florida delayed their lockdown for a month but still stayed locked for same amount of time once they did shutter? Where would they be today? Again, just things I’m thinking about. Hah.

 

[Patcheslee]

Scale backs begin

Makes me thing the reason at least isn't because of any of those ride teams testing positive.

 

[Patcheslee]

1. That's evidence that they do work. Also, see my other post about the NJ trends following the lockdown. They started declining about 3 weeks after the lockdown, which accounts for the incubation period and the time it takes to get test results.

2. You're right, you can't lock down indefinitely, but if you do it right then you can slow the spread enough to where it's not as severe of a problem. Look at how NJ and NY have opened (slowly) vs. Florida (quickly). FL had the chance to learn from the northeast. Instead, they ignored what worked up here and the northeast took the opportunity to learn from FL's mistakes (not allowing indoor dining and bars to open back up after seeing what happened in FL).

You have to account for testing capabilities and limitations when the decline occurred. If there was limited testing during that time frame a decline is possible. There's still places here requiring symptoms or close contact to even qualify for testing.

 

[Andrew C]

It also helped that our government have been giving people $2000 a month for people who are affected by Covid-19.

Are you under the impression the US gave nothing extra?

 

[Flugell]

As a retired teacher (U.K.) I understand the desire for school returning to normal as quickly as possible. I also recognise the need for youngsters to socialise and laugh together and know that at times school can provide those elements alongside education and learning. However children/youngsters/teenagers benefit from consistency. It appears, from reading every post in this thread, that the likelihood of having 100% of available time in school is negligible if not impossible.

Learning from home is not ideal, definitely not an easy option for the teachers, the difficulties are massive but not insurmountable.
In an earlier post I pointed out that in Australia, prior to computers, education was over two way radios due to the distance between pupils. If they managed successfully then, surely there should be a way to make it work in the computer age? It would provide greater consistency, though sadly not the social in person element. Schools could work together to provide full time availability for struggling pupils and could group similar pupils together to provide more targeted support, which, from experience would help everyone.

Sadly during my long career I taught children who were unable to attend school for long periods of time (at least a year) due to cancer and other illnesses. It always amazed me that they had normally caught up with where we had predicted they would be (without the illness) in six to twelve months of their return. So missing school is not automatically going to cause academic failure.

The obvious problem is childcare for parents who need to attend work in person. That is a great difficulty and one I have no experience of. In the U.K. schools remained open for key workers but what is a key worker? A doctor-obviously, a member of Walmart staff-yes, a tattooist, probably not but they need to be open in order to keep their business and feed their family. This is where the true scale of the difficulties is clear. The question is whether it is easier for families to move between schools reopening and then closing again or accepting distance learning for the foreseeable future and find their own solutions?

Whatever choice is made will be the wrong one for many and that is a tragedy. I wish you the best of everything, whichever one happens but wish to reassure everyone that the academic results of well planned and executed distance learning don’t have to be catastrophic.

 

[Jrb1979]

Are you under the impression the US gave nothing extra?

I know they did have out extra money.

I don't post in this thread much any more. Tired of the same arguments from the few who believe we should do nothing.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

So everyone that said “we need to open up because people need to work so they can pay the bills” - let’s look at how that’s working out for Orlando.

We needed to open up so everyone can get laid off? and come October 1, all the airline layoffs are set to begin as well, which I’m guessing will mean fewer flights and higher ticket prices for the flights that remain.

Not that I have the solution.... but I don’t think this is it.

 

[xdan0920]

Here's where you can see the lockdown's effect in NJ. We locked down around March 16 or so (I forget the exact date, but I know my last day in my office was Monday the 15th to get my computer and my wife and I were getting curbside dinner a few days later). The 7-day average of new daily cases peaked on April 7 - 3 weeks after 3/16 and then plateaued with a gradual decline for a couple weeks before beginning a steeper decline. The 7-day average of daily deaths peaked April 21 - 2 weeks after the 7-day average peak of daily cases. It's almost as if the lockdown slowed the spread of the virus!

New Jersey COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

New Jersey COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Or, that’s the virus natural curve? And the lockdowns did nothing.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

So everyone that said “we need to open up because people need to work so they can pay the bills” - let’s look at how that’s working out for Orlando.

We needed to open up so everyone can get laid off? and come October 1, all the airline layoffs are set to begin as well, which I’m guessing will mean fewer flights and higher ticket prices for the flights that remain.

Not that I have the solution.... but I don’t think this is it.

Its not. And that was one of the main arguments for staying closed. We cannot have a functioning economy with a raging pandemic. It doesn't matter if things are open or closed, most people will not risk their lives to go have a drink. Instead, all of these places that opened up spent money on reopening and no one came.
These next few months are going to be nuts. I was an FA 5 years ago and all of my friends got WARN layoff notices. That's thousands of people that have to restart their lives, in an economy/job market that's already in the tanks.

 

[xdan0920]

Today, Fauci stated the reason that our curve didn’t initially drop from the peak as much as Europe is that we essentially did a 50% lockdown while Europe did a 90% lockdown.

Laughable. Not backed up by any data. He’s making that up from whole clothe.

 

[xdan0920]

So everyone that said “we need to open up because people need to work so they can pay the bills” - let’s look at how that’s working out for Orlando.

We needed to open up so everyone can get laid off? and come October 1, all the airline layoffs are set to begin as well, which I’m guessing will mean fewer flights and higher ticket prices for the flights that remain.

Not that I have the solution.... but I don’t think this is it.

We needed to never lock down. Too late for that. The solution now would be the federal government dumping trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars into the economy. Of course that’s just kicking the can down the road.

 

[Andrew C]

So everyone that said “we need to open up because people need to work so they can pay the bills” - let’s look at how that’s working out for Orlando.

We needed to open up so everyone can get laid off? and come October 1, all the airline layoffs are set to begin as well, which I’m guessing will mean fewer flights and higher ticket prices for the flights that remain.

Not that I have the solution.... but I don’t think this is it.

The travel industry will take years to recover either way. It’s nice to see some CMs back to work, however.

 

[LittleBuford]

Laughable. Not backed up by any data. He’s making that up from whole clothe.

Here’s a recently published peer-reviewed study on the effectiveness of lockdowns:

Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking

It appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.

www.thelancet.com

 

[Andrew C]

Laughable. Not backed up by any data. He’s making that up from whole clothe.

You raise an interesting question. Where did the 50% to 90% come from?

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Or, that’s the virus natural curve? And the lockdowns did nothing.

So your position is that the virus naturally starts to decline and it's just a coincidence that the decline in NJ is timed perfectly with the known incubation period and time it takes to get test results? And it's just a coincidence that FL saw a spike in cases within a similar time period of reopening? If there's a "natural curve" to this virus, then why does the curve in FL show a small bump in April followed by a decline and then a huge spike when they reopened? That's not the curve in NJ or NY. If there's a natural curve then it should be the same everywhere.

 

[xdan0920]

You raise an interesting question. Where did the 50% to 90% come from?

He made it up. It’s honestly that simple.

Anyways, let me show you a real life way this goes....

In my town we have had 1 case in July. 1 single case.

Schools are opening part time only, with an option for full virtual.

This is the endgame here folks. We let the fear, the panic, the hysteria get the best of us. And look where it leaves us.

 

[hopemax]

Common Sense.

Exactly, and I hope people will stop participating in this attempt to gaslight and derail the thread.

Separating infected people from healthy people has been a tactic for disease control since at least the Bible was written. The word quarantine comes from a practice of isolating ships since the time of the black death. Every zombie movie in existence is about people trying to keep themselves separated. No movie ever says, "lets just keep acting like everything like normal" where zombies are running around. It would be a dumb plot, and we all know it. Since we don't have an easy way to identify who is sick while they are contagious, and we are unwilling to weld people into their apartment buildings, we have lockdown and not full quarantine. Sure, it is imperfect, and people will continue to be infected. That does not make it ineffective.

It's up to the other guy to prove that they don't work. The only reason that this is even a line of contention is that this disease is, thankfully, not serious enough to be plague or zombie level. And we're only a quarter of the way through, so a hugely incomplete data set. So the obfuscation and denial games can reign. But if one side is "all of human history," they don't need to be the ones supplying the proof.