Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[SierraT]

Ummm....about that....

Shhh.. let me have my thing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What about a soft opening with temp scans and limited restaurant capacities? I could see that happening in June. People are ready to open things up and you know these large corporations can't bleed money forever.

Am I too optimistic?

You are definitely optimistic...but that’s ok.

The problem is that’s not a feasible plan and Disney would never go for it.

I see “temperature scans” gaining popularity...problem is it really does nothing to combat this:

1. Asymptomatic can transfer
2. The Florida weather is extreme so how would you trust a scan anyway.
3. Disney workers are sweet people...but nowhere qualified to work in medical screening
4. A once in time reading is just begging for a flashpoint spread if it’s wrong. You just cannot trust people to stay away from Disney even if they are exposed.


We need the antibody testing...at a minimum.

 

[lazyboy97o]

It reminds me of shingles: which is reactivation of chickenpox and can give someone chickenpox if they haven't had the vaccine.

Shingles hurts like, well, something that hurts a lot since profanity is not allowed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Shingles hurts like, well, something that hurts a lot since profanity is not allowed.

No joke...

 

[Kristoff]

You do know that FL reports twice a day, right? Maybe the numbers you were looking at was not a “daily update” but only the “number since the last update” which is only half a day?

The site mentions it updates at 11:30 AM and 6:30 PM but there is only one line graph per day. I don't want to stray too far off-topic so I'm just gonna chalk it up to the Florida Department of Health not updating properly and leave it at that. Back to your regularly scheduled thread

 

[DCBaker]

Latest numbers for Florida reported in the last 24 hours - 1413 new reported cases, with an increase in deaths of 58.

 

[Patcheslee]

Shingles hurts like, well, something that hurts a lot since profanity is not allowed.

I've heard they do, never had chickenpox so I got sent home when a lady at work showed up with shingles last year. Definitely feels like dejavu.

 

[TrojanUSC]

You are definitely optimistic...but that’s ok.

The problem is that’s not a feasible plan and Disney would never go for it.

I see “temperature scans” gaining popularity...problem is it really does nothing to combat this:

1. Asymptomatic can transfer
2. The Florida weather is extreme so how would you trust a scan anyway.
3. Disney workers are sweet people...but nowhere qualified to work in medical screening
4. A once in time reading is just begging for a flashpoint spread if it’s wrong. You just cannot trust people to stay away from Disney even if they are exposed.


We need the antibody testing...at a minimum.

Exactly. The problem with temperature scans became even more apparent in a new study which shows that people are actually the MOST contagious before they ever get sick.

People infected with the new coronavirus are almost certainly emitting it for close to 2 ½ days before their first signs of illness appear, the scientists found. In fact, the contagion of an infected person reaches its peak roughly 18 hours before she feels the first blush of fever, notices the first twinge of body ache, or experiences her first bout of coughing.

Everyone infected with the coronavirus is a silent spreader for at least a while

A study of COVID-19 patients and the people they likely infected suggests the coronavirus can spread for more than two days before symptoms appear.

www.latimes.com

Also, if anyone spends time reading first-hand accounts of those who have been through the "mild-to-moderate" version of this illness, it makes the flu seem like a walk in the park. The last thing people want to do (or even can physically do) is go to a theme park.

I asked this in another thread but wonder what folks think here. Let's say Disney went through the trouble of hiring and restocking the shelves and reopening the parks prematurely (even if staggered) and the pandemic immediately reared its head again as if it never left. Which, let's face it, it’s gonna stick around for a while. Economically and logistically, would that be a good move on their part? Or is it better than leaving the parks closed?

A real possibility but one of the other primary reasons I think we are looking at a longer closure than usual. The other key thing here is Disney can't just look at this like a localized issue. Florida may give the green light but the CDC will likely have some guidance out even after that and Disney will almost certainly abide.

The WORST thing that could happen to them in this sensitive time is to get a bunch of headlines about people who went to WDW, caught COVID-19 and then brought it home to their communities. That would devastate things for years to come.

 

[DCBaker]

Latest update from Mayor of Miami-Dade -

 

[natatomic]

It reminds me of shingles: which is reactivation of chickenpox and can give someone chickenpox if they haven't had the vaccine.

My kids’ pediatrician told me that before the chicken pox vaccine, since kids kept getting chicken pox, it kept adults exposed to the virus, which caused them to keep producing antibodies, which in turn helped prevent them from getting shingles. Now that there’s a vaccine, adults aren’t exposed to the virus as often since so few kids get chicken pox, and now shingles is more common unless you get the vaccine.

I don’t know how true that is, but I found it interesting.

It makes me wonder about COVID-19 since kids seem to get such mild cases. I am NOT a doctor, but it’s just one theory I’ve wondered about, especially since Sweden seems to be letting their children be exposed by keeping the elementary schools open.

 

[Jrb1979]

Latest update from Mayor of Miami-Dade -



View attachment 464316

Seeing reports like that make me wonder why so many think it's ok to open Disney by July.

 

[Dunston]

It is still going to get so much worse, lol

 

[zengoth]

It reminds me of shingles: which is reactivation of chickenpox and can give someone chickenpox if they haven't had the vaccine.

Shingles reactivates the virus, but it doesn't give you chickenpox again - it's much different and more painful. (sorry, edited after i realize you are saying you can give someone ELSE chickenpox?)

Mayoclinic.org says:
"Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. After you've had chickenpox, the virus lies inactive in nerve tissue near your spinal cord and brain. Years later, the virus may reactivate as shingles."

 

[peter11435]

Seeing reports like that make me wonder why so many think it's ok to open Disney by July.

Because everyone, informed or not, will have an opinion.

 

[JoeCamel]

It is still going to get so much worse, lol

I agree but am not laughing

 

[jmp85]

It is still going to get so much worse, lol

Very insightful.

 

[fradz]

My kids’ pediatrician told me that before the chicken pox vaccine, since kids kept getting chicken pox, it kept adults exposed to the virus, which caused them to keep producing antibodies, which in turn helped prevent them from getting shingles. Now that there’s a vaccine, adults aren’t exposed to the virus as often since so few kids get chicken pox, and now shingles is more common unless you get the vaccine.

I don’t know how true that is, but I found it interesting.

It makes me wonder about COVID-19 since kids seem to get such mild cases. I am NOT a doctor, but it’s just one theory I’ve wondered about, especially since Sweden seems to be letting their children be exposed by keeping the elementary schools open.

Basically the only way out is through Herd Immunity. 2 ways of achieving it: Either through vaccines, or through exposition to the virus.
Sweden is an example, The Netherlands too (their officials openly announce it), and here in Belgium the lockdown is less strict than our southern French neighboors. But only countries with a very robust health system can afford to try this.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Viruses are nasty and there is no consistent pattern between any types of virus with respect to origins, contagiousness, symptoms, mortality, individual or herd immunity, infection rate, vaccination, treatment, reinfection, mutation and so on. Consider: HIV, warts, chickenpox, herpes, HPV, Ebola, influenza, SARS, common cold.

When it comes to CV-19 virtually nothing is reliably known about ANY of these factors.

It's natural for us to speculate, theorize and investigate based on possible parallels between CV-19 and other viruses.

But to formulate public policy and make corporate plans that in the long term will affect millions of people ... in the complete absence of confirmed answers to any of the important questions ... is absurd.

 

[GoofGoof]

Basically the only way out is through Herd Immunity. 2 ways of achieving it: Either through vaccines, or through exposition to the virus.
Sweden is an example, The Netherlands too (their officials openly announce it), and here in Belgium the lockdown is less strict than our southern French neighboors. But only countries with a very robust health system can afford to try this.

The US has 320M people and they estimate at least 40-60% need to be infected or immunized for herd immunity. Taking the mid-point of that number we would need 160M people infected to reach herd immunity without a vaccine. We have 700K total confirmed positive cases and that took about a month. Hospitals were not overwhelmed but we came close in some of the hotspots. Let’s assume there are some people who are infected but were never tested. Let’s even say 10X the number to be really conservative. So even if 7 million people were infected in a month and we hold that pace steady it will take 2 years to reach herd immunity. Likely longer than the vaccine and we don’t know how long the immunity will last either so some may get it twice. If you let people get infected at a faster pace to speed up gaining herd immunity the odds are very high the hospitals would be overrun and we’d have a very bad situation on our hands. This is why herd immunity can really only be achieved through a vaccine at least in the US. A smaller country that like you said has a very robust healthcare system can probably get there sooner.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Shingles reactivates the virus, but it doesn't give you chickenpox again - it's much different and more painful. (sorry, edited after i realize you are saying you can give someone ELSE chickenpox?)

Mayoclinic.org says:
"Shingles is caused by the varicella-zoster virus — the same virus that causes chickenpox. After you've had chickenpox, the virus lies inactive in nerve tissue near your spinal cord and brain. Years later, the virus may reactivate as shingles."

That is the basic “herpes” virus as well...

Virus are such nasty, non-living little things, aren’t they?