Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Bob Harlem]

South Korea has done very well? How fascinating.

S.Korea's total COVID cases top 10 million as crematoria, funeral homes overwhelmed

South Korea's total coronavirus infections topped 10 million, or nearly 20% of its population, authorities said on Wednesday, as surging severe cases and deaths increasingly put a strain on crematories and funeral homes nationwide.

www.reuters.com

South Korea, Hong Kong, New Zealand all built up a very good dam against Covid--maybe even too good. When omicron and its subvariants arrived, it just filled up and broke through the dam and it flooded with cases when it did. Some had built relief flood gates with vaccination programs, others didn't. Even strict masking (even with KN94/95s) and lockdowns or "Zero Covid" policies weren't enough to hold back the crazy high transmissible Omicron. With virtually no prior immunity it was going to rampage quickly once the dam burst. I think virtually everywhere is ultimately going to even out with the numbers, just when and how quickly will differ.

 

[correcaminos]

Good lord. This thread is like reading Ibsen's AN ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE. I better get out of here. Again.

I was truly wondering what your point was. Most know me here as more covid conservative. Just dropped masks last week after bringing them back in mid Aug. It's okay to be cautious but when someone cries sky is falling without seeing bigger pictures I don't know what to do. I also don't think making people mask globally when not all areas are bad is wise either.

 

[Tom P.]

Here's my response to you.

Well, I tried. I asked for an honest answer but you won't choose to give it. I seriously do not understand, though, how one can live on a day-to-day basis with the level of paranoia that you seem to have regarding Covid. I also cannot comprehend what you think the end game on Covid is. I presume you don't think we should live with Covid mitigation measures for the rest of our lives, yet no benchmark we hit seems to be sufficient for you. Are you still holding onto the idea that we can eradicate Covid if we just try harder? Because no serious scientist seems to be making that claim. I just can't figure out what it is that you want.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Speaking 100% anecdotally, my family has avoided COVID for 2 years, we just got it last week and the three positive tests all had cold symptoms for a few days.

If I didn't have an inventory of at home tests, I wouldn't have bothered testing. All positive tests in my family were vaccinated and boosted and our belief is that my toddler daughter was the host monkey. She never tested positive and the first of us with symptoms was 3 days after she exhibit her cold symptoms.

I feel guilty that I had a day where I potentially exposed people, but at the same time it does seem that the latest variants are producing significantly reduced symptoms in people, especially the fully vaccinated. We feel like we dodged a bullet.

 

[Tom P.]

This is today's update straight from the CDC. If now is not the time to be dropping Covid mitigations, there never will be a time.

Community Levels

COVID-19 Community Levels help you decide your prevention steps.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Touchdown]

To people worried because of cases being up around the world you should do a little more critical thinking, this is not a simple issue. Here’s a few things to realize:

1. Those waves are being caused by omicron. Yes it’s the “stealth omicron” but as experts have said here (including Dr Fauci) if you got original omicron you are well protected and unlikely to get ill from this version, especially <6 months after your illness. This combined with a lot of others <6 months from booster the United States is currently well protected. We just peaked two month ago, while we might see a flattening of our Covid numbers or even a small bump it’s unlikely to be a big issue here.

2. As we move further into spring our weather will also help as the weather turns warmer.

3. Moderna has recently applied to get their vaccine approved for kids as young as 6 months, there is a good chance it will be approved soon.

I’m not saying Covid is over, a new varient can emerge at anytime and our current antibody protection due to a recent wave and boosting will wane by July leaving us more at risk for a new surge (but hopefully one that does not cause as much hospitalizations and death due to prior immunity and memory T and B cells) but I’ll say it again what I’ve said for a few months: baring a new varient emerging that evades the vaccine and prior infection, the United States should continue to enjoy low numbers of Covid cases throughout the spring and into the summer. Fall is unknown, so go out and enjoy the reprieve.

 

[GimpYancIent]

WDW is not SD thankfully.
Rapidly increasing numbers of the virus in Asia has led Shanghai Disneyland to be closed indefinitely this week. China’s largest city is in the midst of its largest number of cases in more than 2 years.
“We will continue to monitor the pandemic situation and consult local authorities and will notify guests as soon as we have a confirmed date to resume operations,” the company said in a statement, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

 

[mmascari]

This is today's update straight from the CDC. If now is not the time to be dropping Covid mitigations, there never will be a time.

View attachment 628617

Community Levels

COVID-19 Community Levels help you decide your prevention steps.

www.cdc.gov

I still prefer the older metric, still used for healthcare facilities.

It's looking much better too. Here's to hoping it doesn't stall out at yellow and keeps on dropping into blue more. It's certainly no longer the fire engine red it was not that long ago. Definitely trending the right direction.

If you're in one of those that's still bad on both maps, stay safe.

 

[dreday3]

I still prefer the older metric, still used for healthcare facilities.

View attachment 628650

It's looking much better too. Here's to hoping it doesn't stall out at yellow and keeps on dropping into blue more. It's certainly no longer the fire engine red it was not that long ago. Definitely trending the right direction.

If you're in one of those that's still bad on both maps, stay safe.

How old is this map? It's showing Illinois in all yellow and then reds around the Chicago area and that's just not the case. In fact our hospitals just wen to green visitor status - which is good. Normal precautions.

Oh I see it's today. This is not the information that's being shared here.

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

Just a quick little aside for anyone holding out hope for a u5 vaccine, it's probably not coming. Moderna released their trial results and they are incredibly weak. Stunningly so. Coupled with the fact that the latest data is showing negative efficacy for the 5-11 cohort, and I just can't see how the FDA could possibly approve this.

 

[Disstevefan1]

971 pages to go....

 

[mmascari]

How old is this map? It's showing Illinois in all yellow and then reds around the Chicago area and that's just not the case. In fact our hospitals just wen to green visitor status - which is good. Normal precautions.

Oh I see it's today. This is not the information that's being shared here.

They're different maps based on different metrics.

The one I posted is based on a transmission rate. How are cases going. Chances you'll run into someone who infects you.

The first one posted is based on a more lenient transmission rate and then adds in hospital admissions and capacity. Public health cares about "the public" not about just one person.

Meaning, the first map can be green if if you're more likely to mingle with infected people and get infected, as long as the local hospital capacity has plenty of room for you.

This can create some strange combinations. An area with really poor hospital capacity could look great on the transmission map but still be bad on the community one. The reverse too, an area with worse transmission (but not catastrophic) that has really good hospital capacity can still look good on the community one even while bad on the transmission one.

I can see where managing overall public health the first map works to know the system isn't in danger of collapse. But, on a personal level, I still prefer the "how many infected and infectious people am I likely to run into" metric.

They're both trending in the right direction, the second just moves slower.

 

[danlb_2000]

I still prefer the older metric, still used for healthcare facilities.

View attachment 628650

It's looking much better too. Here's to hoping it doesn't stall out at yellow and keeps on dropping into blue more. It's certainly no longer the fire engine red it was not that long ago. Definitely trending the right direction.

If you're in one of those that's still bad on both maps, stay safe.

Since I can't click on the link, how is community transmission calculated?

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

Anti-vaxxers say three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine results in higher infection rates. Here's why that's incorrect

Fact Check- Danish study did not conclude that COVID-19 vaccines adversely impact immune systems or that COVID-19 vaccines are completely ineffective against the Omicron variant

The Covid-19 vaccines don’t have ‘negative efficacy’

The Moderna numbers are not "stunningly" weak. The protection against symptomatic infection is about the same as some seasonal flu shots. The risk/benefit may still be worth it if it reduces transmission and would prevent the relatively rare severe COVID cases in kids 5 and under.

Um, those are some very, let's say, interesting articles. They also don't address anything I said. I am just going to post the actual information, and you will be free to torture the numbers until they say what you want. All good by me.

Chart showing negative efficacy in NY

Chart direct from Moderna release showing efficacy of Vax by age.

Now, maybe I'll be wrong and the administration will push through approval. However with numbers like this, I would expect uptake to be under 25%

 

[mmascari]

Since I can't click on the link, how is community transmission calculated?

Same as before. This is the original metric that was in use before the new Community Level was released.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Community Level for comparison.

So, you can have a Red (but not insane crazy red) on the Transmission metric, say 199/100K for last 7 day, but if hospital admissions are low and there's plenty of beds you'll be green on the Community Level.

For instance say you've got a 75% vaccinated population. Still plenty of unvaccinated to keep the transmission higher and circulating which will in turn drive a higher breakthrough rate. But all those breakthrough cases are not likely to need the hospital at all. Which will keep the Community level green then.

That "Public Health" and "Personal Health" have different goals and concerns has been an something that's clearly come out of all of this.

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

Same as before. This is the original metric that was in use before the new Community Level was released.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

View attachment 628661

Community Level for comparison.

View attachment 628662

So, you can have a Red (but not insane crazy red) on the Transmission metric, say 199/100K for last 7 day, but if hospital admissions are low and there's plenty of beds you'll be green on the Community Level.

For instance say you've got a 75% vaccinated population. Still plenty of unvaccinated to keep the transmission higher and circulating which will in turn drive a higher breakthrough rate. But all those breakthrough cases are not likely to need the hospital at all. Which will keep the Community level green then.

That "Public Health" and "Personal Health" have different goals and concerns has been an something that's clearly come out of all of this.

Where did the levels come from? What are they based on?

 

[mmascari]

Where did the levels come from? What are they based on?

I'm not sure what you mean here?

These are both the CDC defined metrics. One they've been using for months (and still are for health care facilities) and one that's been around for the last couple of months (maybe less, time is hard to judge these days).

If the question is how did they determine the cut offs between each level? I've got no idea, they could have pulled them out of thin air. Presumably if they did just make them up out of thin air, it was done by people with the knowledge and expertise to make that kind of determination. I would assume a little more went into it though, with some work done based on impacts and goals.

Comparing the two, you can judge them on how they work differently compared to each other. Not so much on how those cut offs work in an absolute sense.

CDC Landing Page:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

There's links at the top to both, with more links and links and then even more describing both of them.

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

If the question is how did they determine the cut offs between each level? I've got no idea, they could have pulled them out of thin air.

Yes, that was my question. Thanks!

 

[Touchdown]

Well IHME came out with their first forecast in a month, here’s the Global prediction:

Looks bad doesn’t it? I agree Globally it looks terrible. Let’s look at the United States:

While in their notes they mention that we could see a spike like Europe they currently not predicting it, speaking of Europe:

They have officially peaked and are expected to traIl North Americas dip by a month. So where exactly are all of these new cases going to occur? It’s in one country, China:

Bottom line, this is going to be devastating for China, and her suffering is going to cause global economic pain as her economy is going to shut down. Inflation is going to continue to rise as supply dips further. With all these infections, the risk for a new varient is high, and that will be an additional concern. That said Covid infections are expected to be low through the foreseeable future in the west.

 

[Heelz2315]

I’ve never heard of the IMHE. How accurate have their models been in the past?