Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The 95% confidence has nothing to do with the efficacy of the vaccines or the 96% Pfizer reported initially. The efficacy number was not given and may or may not even exist since you need enough infections in the placebo group to calculate it.

The 95% confidence is a statistical measure. They believe that if you ran the same test an infinite number of times the results will fall between the 2 stated values of 1,106 and 1,296 95% of the time. It’s a standard measure used to mean high level of confidence. The value 1,197 represents the average level of antibodies present in the blood after vaccination. This was compared to the level of antibodies present in the blood from young participants in the original trial. So what they are doing is saying if the antibody response is not worse than the original trial we can conclude that the vaccine is equally effective.
Good explanation on the 95% confidence. Said another way, they have 95% confidence that the results will fall between those values.

It's something that is often misunderstood in polling. There is always an underlying confidence interval. When a poll says 36% of purple people say they won't get vaccinated +/-3% there is normally a 95% confidence interval. The poll results actually mean that the publisher of the poll results has 95% confidence that between 33% and 39% of purple people won't get vaccinated. They expect a 5% chance that the actual number will fall outside of that range.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Gotcha....just trying to figure out how protected my 11 year old will be once he takes the vaccine. How well is he protected.
He is expected to have around the same immune response that resulted from the adult dose in 16-25 year olds. In other words even though the dose is 1/3 the size of the adult dose it’s just as effective in creating antibodies. Really good news. The lower dose results in less adverse reactions. I was very happy to see that was the result because if it was less effective I would have had to consider waiting until January to get my 11 year old the full adult dose when he turns 12. Now the decision is a no brainer for me. He’s getting the kid dose as soon as it’s approved.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
Interesting article from The Atlantic on hospitalized covid patients.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...italization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/

"A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases."
This may be the most important note from the article. IMO.

“One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.””
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
This may be the most important note from the article. IMO.

“One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.””
Agreed. Instead some will see this and say “see the hospitalized numbers are fake, covid is no big deal”.

I think there should be a way to carve out people who were hospitalized for some other reason and then tested positive for Covid after being admitted. I disagree with their conclusion that someone who goes to the hospital for Covid isn’t severely ill unless they have a certain blood oxygen level. If you are sick enough to be admitted for Covid (even just for observation) in my mind you have severe covid.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Agreed. Instead some will see this and say “see the hospitalized numbers are fake, covid is no big deal”.

I think there should be a way to carve out people who were hospitalized for some other reason and then tested positive for Covid after being admitted. I disagree with their conclusion that someone who goes to the hospital for Covid isn’t severely ill unless they have a certain blood oxygen level. If you are sick enough to be admitted for Covid (even just for observation) in my mind you have severe covid.
A possibility is that some might be briefly admitted for observation, if they are symptomatic and high risk. High risk cardiac patients get admitted all the time based on symotoms and medical history alone for "rule out" , which usually takes about 24-48 hours. Same with likely transient ischemic attacks.

Insurance companies generally put down somewhat strict admission and length of stay criteria, depending on the diagnosis. If the admission doesn't meet the criteria, then the hospital often eats the cost. I haven't worked as a hospitalist since before the pandemic, so I don't know how well defined the criteria for COVID are, but it is possible that if the standards are still evolving, their might be a little more leeway for a hospital to admit a patient under "out of an abundance of caution" standards. Most of these patients would probably get discharged fairly quickly.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Hospitals these days don’t like admitting patients. It seems odd that they would overload themselves and cancel major revenue generators without serious cause.
Not only cancel but people may still be nervous to go through with elective surgeries until they feel it is safe to proceed and / or with job loss ( no more medical insurance ) and or working a new job with less generous medical benefits ( some new staff do not get medical benefits right away when hired ) this could factor in delaying elective surgeries . Elective surgeries were delayed by hospital execs but also customer election to delay their surgeries due to their own personal concerning factors. One factor that may play into delaying elective surgery is that if the patient tests positive for covid prior to surgery , then hence the delay and loss of future income for the doctors.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member

Looks like Moderna boosters may be authorized by FDA soon and it looks like they will go with the half dose. I assume it will be the same groups covered under the Pfizer booster EUA. Still no word on when the FDA will look at the JnJ booster. So far the company released prelim data but to my knowledge hasn’t formally submitted to FDA for approval.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member

Looks like Moderna boosters may be authorized by FDA soon and it looks like they will go with the half dose. I assume it will be the same groups covered under the Pfizer booster EUA. Still no word on when the FDA will look at the JnJ booster. So far the company released prelim data but to my knowledge hasn’t formally submitted to FDA for approval.
Have they even started half dose booster trials? The article makes it seem like the move to half dose is mostly to get 2x the booster doses out of the same production.
 
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