Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

It’s a loss...but wdw will live or die with the travel from the mostly eastern us...from Toronto to
Maine, to Florida, to Dallas, to Minneapolis and back around like a monopoly board.

And that’s why there will be a lot of politicking from the dwarf house. They know they need the promise of full operation rather quickly or there’s no point into opening at a loss or no profit.

Rule of acquisition number #1971

Did I see you throw Grand Nagus into this thread? Very nicely done my good man!
“Don’t tell customers more then they need to know”. Rule #39

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Locals as in New Yorkers? With what money?

Never mind that being stuffed in a room with 1,000 of your closest strangers was something many already considered a liability given how cramped the older theaters are. I've had issues with leg-room at the Broadhurst, and let me tell you I'm not tall enough that I should be running into that problem. Some of these theaters have people literally on top of each other.

There will be some people who will go, sure, but enough to keep paying the bills? Many productions live precariously close to their weekly "nut" already. I can think of a dozen or more shows that could easily sink from any hit in attendance or requirement to sell fewer seats. Some that most would consider "Hits", too.

Broadway won't be bouncing back overnight, unfortunately.

I was comparing broadway to 100% tourist oriented places like Las Vegas and Disney World. I think you missed my point, I’m sure broadway will suffer, as will all businesses. But broadway and Disneyland will have a way better chance than Vegas and Disney World I think.

 

[GoofGoof]

How does that happen, actually? Im texting a group of engineers from my company and none of us can do the math...neither can the accountants or the lawyers.

You asked so here goes:

The WTIC (Western Texas Intermediate Crude) May futures contract stops trading tomorrow. The WTIC NYMEX contract settles physically which means if you are left long at the end of trading tomorrow you are taking delivery of physical oil. Many people trade futures but never intend to take physical delivery so they just enter into an offsetting position and lock in a financial gain or loss. Because of the extreme drop in demand and lack of storage available nobody wants the oil. Some traders are being forced to pay someone to not have the oil delivered. If you look at the May Brent futures contract that trades through ICE it’s still in the 20s. Thats way below normal but not negative because ICE oil futures settle financially and the contract trades through 4/30. It is pretty crazy to see a futures contract go negative. I’ve seen West Texas electricity prices go negative overnight due to the glut of wind generators in the area and transmission line constraints but never an oil futures price.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Georgia to start lifting restrictions this Friday -

Gyms, bowling alleys, hair salons, barber shops, nail salons and other similar businesses can reopen statewide on Friday. Elective surgeries will start taking place again. some restaurants, theaters will be able to reopen with strict social distancing guidelines next week.

The statewide shelter-in-place order will expire on April 30 - the elderly and medically fragile patients have to shelter-in-place until May 13.

CORONAVIRUS IN GEORGIA: Shelter in place to end April 30

Watch Channel 2 Action News RIGHT NOW for live updates on this developing story.

www.wsbtv.com

Gyms? Can you exercise with a mask on or is it not necessary with his new guidelines?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, but they may need to be bailed out again depending on the length of the shutdowns. I agree with you on the issues with the airline industry though. But what’s done is done.

Cruise lines and the travel industry as a whole, as well as restaurants, stage theaters, movie theaters, etc. employ a lot of people who, even if they’re being made whole temporarily via unemployment, you have to wonder:

1. How long will that unemployment be able to go? The nation has to finance this.
2. What does a society look like where tens of millions have been deprived of the dignity of work?

Given those two factors, opening the economy for travel and recreation needs to be a priority. Another poster (I guess their post got deleted or removed) discussed the need to shutdown in order for hospitals to ramp up their resources...

I’m all for that - temporarily - say, a 90 day shutdown, at most. The issue is, we need clarification as to why we are shutting down and forcing people to go to food banks and lose the dignity of work. Has hospital capacity increased significantly? Will they be able to handle future outbreaks? Perhaps based on poor communication from our government, we’re not getting a lot of feedback regarding what our shared sacrifice is actually buying us.

What we do know is (thus far), we have not needed the hospital capacity, ICU beds, and ventilators that we thought we would... by a long shot. We should view that as a positive sign of progress and focus on re-opening while increasing capacity as a just-in-case.

The first half I was right there....but you lost me when it reverted to “we need the economy cause of all that money!!!”

That desire - while understandable - is subliminally the hope that everyone goes back to their 2019 selves soon.

It may no longer be possible. So we may be at an “evolutionary step”

That may not be all bad...it could lead to real progress.

1. Many people weren’t happy anyway...so perhaps the powers that be won’t be able to hide that any longer?
2. The Dow has proven itself to be complete BS these last two weeks. In no way should it be gaining...these are zero monetary or economic factors that warrant it. It’s being artificially driven by traders, bankers, and power brokers to prime for another parachute spot before crash. That’s kinda obvious now.

 

[bryanfze55]

Georgia to start lifting restrictions this Friday -

Gyms, bowling alleys, hair salons, barber shops, nail salons and other similar businesses can reopen statewide on Friday. Elective surgeries will start taking place again. some restaurants, theaters will be able to reopen with strict social distancing guidelines next week.

The statewide shelter-in-place order will expire on April 30 - the elderly and medically fragile patients have to shelter-in-place until May 13.

CORONAVIRUS IN GEORGIA: Shelter in place to end April 30

Watch Channel 2 Action News RIGHT NOW for live updates on this developing story.

www.wsbtv.com

Great news... not because this is inherently good or bad, but because this will be a test for the nation. If we can correlate these openings to future outbreaks, well, we may need to put the breaks on reopening.

If these openings occur without significant increases in case count, then maybe the hypochondriacs can let their guards down a bit. Zero new cases can’t be the bar for reopening the economy... it just can’t. It’s too lofty of a goal, one we’ve never set for any disease.

 

[DisneyCane]

Right...so it’s not being given away - which would be reality if it had “negative value”...Lack of demand is forcing more supply Than the infrastructure can support.

Don’t bail out the shale companies...Is all I’m saying...farewell, Chesapeake

It kind of has a negative value but only if you own an oil refinery. If other companies are going to get bailed out due to COVID-19 related financial issues then why would the shale companies be excluded? Just like with Disney and the airlines, demand for oil has not naturally gone down, it has gone down because the worldwide governments put measures in place that took away significant demand.

 

[Lilofan]

Locals as in New Yorkers? With what money?

Never mind that being stuffed in a room with 1,000 of your closest strangers was something many already considered a liability given how cramped the older theaters are. I've had issues with leg-room at the Broadhurst, and let me tell you I'm not tall enough that I should be running into that problem. Some of these theaters have people literally on top of each other.

There will be some people who will go, sure, but enough to keep paying the bills? Many productions live precariously close to their weekly "nut" already. I can think of a dozen or more shows that could easily sink from any hit in attendance or requirement to sell fewer seats. Some that most would consider "Hits", too.

Broadway won't be bouncing back overnight, unfortunately.

There are two NYC groups with far apart financial situations. The group from all income levels furloughed or laid off that is barely surviving with collecting unemployment and stimulus checks to try to pay rent or mortgage. The other group is working from home collecting a full salary. This group is not spending the money they usually spend on discretionary spending. They are holed up in their little NYC apts. This group may be the ones frequenting Broadway and other tourist spots in NYC to help these businesses survive.

 

[Longshore_noah]

How is this for an idea? Everyone chill and wait for WDW to make an announcement on when they will open.

That would be the same thing to do. But kinda boring and now more than ever we need distractions, even unhealthy ones.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It kind of has a negative value but only if you own an oil refinery. If other companies are going to get bailed out due to COVID-19 related financial issues then why would the shale companies be excluded? Just like with Disney and the airlines, demand for oil has not naturally gone down, it has gone down because the worldwide governments put measures in place that took away significant demand.

Shale is one of the worst things in the history of things. That is in my technical wheelhouse...trust me. It’s 100% about the science and it’s war with the green.

Ok...so I’m taking up a collection for shell and exxon now

And the “demand” for oil has been 100% artificially controlled for a century or more. Don’t leave the truth out of that policy paper

 

[DisneyCane]

2. The Dow has proven itself to be complete BS these last two weeks. In no way should it be gaining...these are zero monetary or economic factors that warrant it. It’s being artificially driven by traders, bankers, and power brokers to prime for another parachute spot before crash. That’s kinda obvious now.

Not really. The market over corrected when this all started. Since the market is a rough approximation of the economy, it should drop roughly with the expected reduction in GDP. The latest estimate I saw was something in the single digits for 2020 GDP contraction. The market should be down something in that range from where it was before, not the 30% down that it got to.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not really. The market over corrected when this all started. Since the market is a rough approximation of the economy, it should drop roughly with the expected reduction in GDP. The latest estimate I saw was something in the single digits for 2020 GDP contraction. The market should be down something in that range from where it was before, not the 30% down that it got to.

That’s delightfully naive. Sometimes a cake is in fact a cake.

Let’s Move On.

 

[DisneyCane]

Shale is one of the worst things in the history of things. That is in my technical wheelhouse...trust me. It’s 100% about the science and it’s war with the green.

Ok...so I’m taking up a collection for shell and exxon now

Whether that is true or not (and I don't have the knowledge on the topic to argue one way or the other), the COVID induced crash should not be the excuse to shut down shale oil companies. They should be treated the exact same as every other company that has been effected by the forced shutdown/slowdown of the economy. In a way it would be like bailing out Tesla but not GM because you don't like the internal combustion engine.

I'll move on from your other post about the market so as not to derail the thread, not because I think you are correct.

 

[yensidtlaw1969]

I was comparing broadway to 100% tourist oriented places like Las Vegas and Disney World. I think you missed my point, I’m sure broadway will suffer, as will all businesses. But broadway and Disneyland will have a way better chance than Vegas and Disney World I think.

I'm not sure I did - you're right that Broadway isn't entirely dependent on Tourists, which is why it came through after 9/11. It almost became an act of patriotism as a New Yorker to go see a show. Not to mention that they needed an escape that Broadway was able to offer.

Broadway did suffer, of course, and many shows closed in the wake of that, but New Yorkers were able to contribute in a way that is not automatically replicable now. Not only is their city the epicenter of the epidemic nationwide, but many have taken a serious and unprecedented financial hit.

There will be haves and have-nots who have a different monetary ability to attend a show, but will those haves turn up in enough numbers to make a serious, rallying, positive impact? Or will many of them still be afraid to sit that close to who knows who for 2+ hours, even if they COULD afford to go to a show?

Broadway has never been able to successfully rely exclusively on New Yorkers, and unfortunately I don't suspect they'll be able to start now. It'll get back to normal eventually, sure, as will Vegas and Disney. I don't think their situations are really so unique from each other at the moment. It doesn't matter who their business usually depends on if people can't or won't go.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

One quick thought I just had...

One theme they repeatedly hit on in "The Imagineering Story" is the idea that the Disney brand has always been about quality, and quality of experience.

Thinking about how that translates to a potential limited reopening... if everyone has to wear masks, get a temp scan, no parades, no shows, no parties, no character greetings, no monorails, no ferry boats... is that the Disney "quality of experience" they'd be willing to risk opening for?

Maybe they simply wait a while, install some extra hand sanitizer stations, then reopen as normal.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I'm not sure I did - you're right that Broadway isn't entirely dependent on Tourists, which is why it came through after 9/11. It almost became an act of patriotism as a New Yorker to go see a show. Not to mention that they needed an escape that Broadway was able to offer.

Broadway did suffer, of course, and many shows closed in the wake of that, but New Yorkers were able to contribute in a way that is not automatically replicable now. Not only is their city the epicenter of the epidemic nationwide, but many have taken a serious and unprecedented financial hit.

There will be haves and have-nots who have a different monetary ability to attend a show, but will those haves turn up in enough numbers to make a serious, rallying, positive impact? Or will many of them still be afraid to sit that close to who knows who for 2+ hours, even if they COULD afford to go to a show?

Broadway has never been able to successfully rely exclusively on New Yorkers, and unfortunately I don't suspect they'll be able to start now.

I think we agree. My only point is that Broadway and Disneyland will have it easier than Vegas and Disney World, imho of course. They will all suffer from all of the things you mentioned.

 

[bryanfze55]

That’s delightfully naive. Sometimes a cake is in fact a cake.

Let’s Move On.

His view might be naive, but yours might be a bit too far in the other direction... maybe? Just a lil?

Let’s be skeptical without being cynical. And think long-term about markets. We fought through the WWI, Spanish flu, the Great Depression, and WWII in the span of two and a half decades. And the markets came out intact. The doomsday for markets will come, but we shouldn’t be so quick to say that this is that doomsday.

 

[DCBaker]

Florida has launched a dashboard to track how the state is handling unemployment benefit claims.

Reemployment Assistance Claimants by County and Industry

lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com

 

[MJJME]

So turn off fastpass temporarily and do boarding groups for everything. You can only join one boarding group at a time.

Wouldn’t work. What would all the guests do as they weee waiting for their BG to be called for hours on the popular rides? No standby, no restaurants = not a good idea.

 

[thomas998]

It is not a math issue. It is a storage issue. If a lot of people were looking for oil, the price would be going up. Due to the lack of storage capacity, the people holding May delivery contracts fear that it will cost them more to find a place to store the oil than to pay a customer (refinery) to take delivery. Since there is so much oil already stored, the oil delivered in May could need to be stored for a long time.

I don't know what the storage cost is on crude oil but let's say it is $8 per barrel per month due to the lack of storage capacity and the current supply makes it likely that the oil delivered in May won't be sold until November, it will cost $48 to store it. If they expect the price of oil for November delivery to be $30, they would rather pay somebody $18 to take delivery in May and guarantee the loss vs. risking more loss by paying to store it and trying to sell it in November.

The customer is then taking on the transportation and storage cost. It is only the WTI crude that has gone negative so far. Unfortunately, I don't think the distillates are going to go negative so you won't fill your bank account and car simultaneously.

Yes and right now the storage at Cushing while low still exists... now if we don't get some increase in demand in the next month or so, the storage will be pretty much nonexistent at that point it will be interesting to see what starts to happen because with the fracked wells you can't just stop them and restart them without losing a significant amount of production, in some wells if you shut them down they would require refracking to get them going again.

The more critical issue that the industry will see going forward are the foreign production which is currently being stored in oil tankers that are just sitting offshore the supply of tankers is not infinite and at some point the lack of tanker space will force them to unload or for the foreign producers to shut in their oil wells. Very interesting situation is starting to unfold and it will be interesting to see how this collapse in price ends up causing serious problems in the Middle East where countries like Saudi Arabia are relying on oil above 50/barrel to support their governments... At the current rate 50 plus prices is way off and the Saudi monetary reserves are sure to be going down... this could result in another Arab Spring within a year as many oil based government lack the money to keep their regimes in power.