Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Yes, the gates should prevent moving into a new stage too soon. But what I am talking about is if they need to actually reverse course and move backward. If they move into Phase 1 and suddenly there is a 20% increase in cases, the idea is not just to sit around and accept that and continue to stay in Phase 1. The idea is to pull back into our current lockdown state if something like that happens. Or if Phase 1 works, but then we move into Phase 2 and there is a big spike, you pull back into Phase 1.If they follow the gates in the guidelines them nothing should be done too soon. If there is a downward trend in new cases for 14 days, the new cases per day should be very low at that point.
If I had to make a prediction, outside of the NYC metro area, most of the country will meet the criteria for "Phase I" around May 1. Phase 1 doesn't relax things that much.
I think many people are looking at these phases as an absolute progression you can follow that will guarantee them a return to normalcy. The fact is that three weeks after implementing Phase 1, we could be right back out of the phases and into lockdown again depending upon the results. I hope that does not happen, but it is a possibility, and I don't think people are prepared to accept that. In fact, I think it would be easier to convince people to stay under current orders another month than it would be to relax the restrictions and then try to tighten up again.