Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

The mass testing is a double edged sword though. Yes, all those "positives, but mild cases" keeps the mortality rate down. But all the testing gets those positives "off the streets" faster. Which also keeps the mortality rate down because those people aren't going to visit their "high risk" family members, or going to their jobs where they interact with "high risk" customers. That is something that isn't happening in the US, and there will be consequences.

The places I am keeping my ear out for are the assisted living communities, senior centers, care centers etc, since those are where the fatalities will occur. My concern, is that we are still in the early phase and so those consequences of younger, healthier, but positive individuals interacting with the high risk population haven't been felt yet. And since we have inadequate testing, we have no idea when that time bomb is going to explode and if our hospitals and necessary equipment will be able to cope with it. The problem Italy is now facing.

So I don't really see how South Korea's low mortality rate really helps us predict anything when we have likely many "positive but asymptomatic or mild cases" interacting with the 70 million people in the US that are over the age of 60 when we aren't taking the same steps to control the spread.

I agree with what you are saying. However, if other countries implement mass testing, the same benefits will be seen. From the information from the WHO (not my opinion, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus' opinion), asymptomatic spread is a very small issue. Mild cases are an issue as people with mild cases will still cough and sneeze. That is why, in my opinion, the best course of action is to test as many people as possible with cold/flu symptoms so that people that test positive can be isolated instead of taking extreme, societal and economic disruptive actions.

I realize that in the US this is currently not possible due to the number of tests available. Perhaps they can focus on the hot spots first while more are manufactured.

South Korea's mortality rate helps to predict the overall mortality rate of those infected. Obviously, it will still be higher for those that become seriously ill.

Hmm, yep.... cherry picking.

Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias.

The incomplete evidence is the data that is from "not South Korea."

You are Cherry picking. What you are doing is like taking a Presidential poll and sampling only people that identify in one party.

Hey, guys, take it off-line... if we wanted facts, we'd look 'em up ourselves, and if we wanted bickering, we'd tell our kids to get off their damn phones and finish their homework.

I'll try to stop. The problem is that there are scared people that read flutas' doomsday posts that may become more terrified. It is clear that flutas does not have any experience in scientific study or statistical analysis and is making declarations that are not valid.

 

[flutas]

Mild cases are an issue as people with mild cases will still cough and sneeze.

Ah yes, I only cough and sneeze when I get pneumonia too.

The incomplete evidence is the data that is from "not South Korea."
You are Cherry picking. What you are doing is like taking a Presidential poll and sampling only people that identify in one party.

lmao, you literally are doing that then turning around and accusing me of it.

If you take *all* the data, how is that "one party" vs taking literally one countries data....

I'll try to stop. The problem is that there are scared people that read flutas' doomsday posts that may become more terrified. It is clear that flutas does not have any experience in scientific study or statistical analysis and is making declarations that are not valid.

I'll try to stop. The problem is that there are scared people that read DisneyCanes' everything is fine and dandy posts that may go out, get the virus and die. It is clear that DisneyCane does not have any experience in scientific study or statistical analysis and is making declarations that are not valid. The for some reason needs to try to add personal attacks to it with "triggered" comments.

 

[ifan]

FWIW - the head Infectious Disease physician at one of the big hospitals near me gave a presentation to all the physicians on staff today and he thinks that longer-term the fatality rate will eventually come down to be similar to flu (.1%.) All of the physicians in my family and friends are not in any sort of panic mode and continue to go about their lives in a regular fashion.

Of course, at the hospitals themselves, strict guidelines have been implemented, precautions are being taken, and it is being taken very seriously. But these doctors deal with all sorts of infectious disease on a daily basis. Negative pressure isolation rooms, separate entrances for suspected patients, etc. This particular hospital already has several coronavirus patients. Residents are not allowed to enter the rooms etc. Attendings only. ID specialists triage everyone first. They're doing a solid job right now. To be determined how things look in a few weeks!

 

[DisneyCane]

It was mostly in the very beginning of this thread, people comparing death numbers and case numbers to the flu, then ending it with "see it's not that bad compared to the flu!" Including our friend DisneyCane up here.

I'll highlight 2 comments and their relevant parts below with full links to comments of a few that I found quickly.

How about quoting ALL of what I said:

You are correct that this is not "the flu" which is caused by the influenza virus. This is a technically different illness. The fact remains that it is quite possibly no worse than the flu when it comes to the number of infections or mortality rate.

There is no data that can prove this one way or the other at this point. All that is known (if the data from China is accurate) is the mortality rate of people that are confirmed to be infected with Covid-19.

The only way to get a handle on the true number of infected people and determine the percentages that become seriously ill or die is to test a large sample of the population in areas that have experienced an outbreak. To my knowledge, this has not been done.

That was posted before the large scale testing data from South Korea came in.

I'll try to stop. The problem is that there are scared people that read DisneyCanes' everything is fine and dandy posts that may go out, get the virus and die. It is clear that DisneyCane does not have any experience in scientific study or statistical analysis and is making declarations that are not valid.

And people are going to go out and get the flu and die or get into a car accident and die. People die. I do have experience in scientific study and statistical analysis. What is your degree and work experience in?

I have not said that people shouldn't take sane precautions to try and avoid becoming infected. I have said that they shouldn't freak out like this is Armageddon. It isn't and unless you are elderly or have an underlying serious medical condition you have a very small chance of dying from it even if you are infected.

 

[GoofGoof]

FWIW - the head Infectious Disease physician at one of the big hospitals near me gave a presentation to all the physicians on staff today and he thinks that longer-term the fatality rate will eventually come down to be similar to flu (.1%.) All of the physicians in my family and friends are not in any sort of panic mode and continue to go about their lives in a regular fashion.

Of course, at the hospitals themselves, strict guidelines have been implemented, precautions are being taken, and it is being taken very seriously. But these doctors deal with all sorts of infectious disease on a daily basis. Negative pressure isolation rooms, separate entrances for suspected patients, etc. This particular hospital already has several coronavirus patients. Residents are not allowed to enter the rooms etc. Attendings only. ID specialists triage everyone first. They're doing a solid job right now. To be determined how things look in a few weeks!

Always good to hear what people on the front line of this are thinking. They have the most to lose being so close to the infected so I doubt they would take this lightly.

 

[ifan]

Question. Is transmission through they eyes as well? I have heard this but I see pictures of alot of security forces and hospital people without protective eye wear.

I am not a physician, but based on reading the official WHO report and asking a physician friend...
Yes a mask alone would not be enough to protect you completely. In a hospital they are wearing combo of N95 masks PLUS goggles or shields. Wearing a mask is fantastic at preventing transmission to other people if the wearer themself is sick.

HOWEVER - this isn't like the Measles where the virus just stays in the air for hours afterwards. You'd have to be close to someone who sneezes or coughs. Or you'd have to touch something they touched and then touch your eyes, etc.

 

[DisneyCane]

How about reading ALL of what I posted huh?



Guess we can't read words either huh...



Software engineering, you know, unit tests and data analysis.



So over 55% of americans... Because pre-existing conditions for this includes hypertension and diabetes.

You might want to take a refresher course in statistical analysis.

Dr. Fauci the other day went out of his way to clarify that things like controlled hypertension are not considered a serious underlying condition in this context. He also pointed out that there is overlap between senior citizens and people that have the serious underlying conditions so the percentage of the population that the high risk categories apply to are not additive.

 

[GoofGoof]

So over 55% of americans... Because pre-existing conditions for this includes hypertension and diabetes.

The number of severe cases is unlikely to reach anywhere near 55%. In China it’s been around 15 to 20%.

Here‘s another balanced look at some stats and predictions. Basically worse than flu but not as bad as some other stuff we have seen.

The WHO Estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4%. That Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

Why the real number may be much lower

time.com

 

[ifan]

Cause in Italy I'm just seeing pictures like this (isn't that just spreading the virus to security):
View attachment 455163
View attachment 455164

It is no wonder why screeners at LAX etc have been infected. But as I said in a previous post, this isn't the Measles. Brief contact with a person walking by isn't necessarily going to get you infected. There needs to be some sort of droplet produced like a cough or sneeze.

I've read lots of contradicting articles on this, but common sense would tell me that if there was a droplet with a virus in it and you were wearing a mask but not goggles, the mask would probably lower the risk but not completely eliminate it.

There are also very unusual ways for a virus to spread. 300+ people were infected with SARS by a single individual in an apartment complex in Hong Kong. How? A defective sewage pipe. The plumes from feces were found to be able to infect people at long distances even though they were in separate apartments, completely isolated. We don't really know enough yet for this particular virus.

 

[flutas]

The number of severe cases is unlikely to reach anywhere near 55%. In China it’s been around 15 to 20%.

Here‘s another balanced look at some stats and predictions. Basically worse than flu but not as bad as some other stuff we have seen.

The WHO Estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4%. That Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

Why the real number may be much lower

time.com

I was saying 55% of americans are in the "high risk" group according to the CDC, not that 55% of cases will be severe.

Something to clarify on those numbers though is the 20% of severe cases means you will most likely need hospitalization.

The other 80% of cases can range from no symptoms to pneumonia.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

We don't really know enough yet for this particular virus.

Exactly. This Chinese study suggests it can linger. Obviously not definitive.

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’, study says

Health authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away.

www.scmp.com

 

[ifan]

This graph is pretty illustrative:
View attachment 455166

The randomness of the infected vs uninfected indicates to me that there could be a different mechanism that caused the infection. I have not read the article/study - but perhaps they touched something and then select others touched the same item. Or maybe their coat had droplets from a cough on it and as they were walking down the aisle, their coat rubbed against other people who then touched that and touched their faces. Or perhaps they didn't even get it from that bus - but from somewhere else (if it was already in high levels throughout the community.) Hard to know?

 

[Nubs70]

I'm done, I just want people to understand the current widely agreed upon facts, not the random numbers someone on a forum posted who thinks they are smarter than the CDC, the WHO, and actual medical professionals keeps touting as fact.



WHO source, PDF warning



CDC Source

I got my into from John's Hopkins and Langone Medical Center, actual medical professionals ya know.

 

[Nubs70]

The randomness of the infected vs uninfected indicates to me that there could be a different mechanism that caused the infection. I have not read the article/study - but perhaps they touched something and then select others touched the same item. Or maybe their coat had droplets from a cough on it and as they were walking down the aisle, their coat rubbed against other people who then touched that and touched their faces. Or perhaps they didn't even get it from that bus - but from somewhere else (if it was already in high levels throughout the community.) Hard to know?

could be as simple as touching the same handrail on the way in or out of the bus.

 

[seascape]

This graph is pretty illustrative:
View attachment 455166

It looks like most of the infected are on the aisle. It may also be spread by touching the aisle seat. I made sure my wife has the window seat on the plane and I will have the middle. An airline executive I heard interviewed said the airline cleans the plane after each flight but since people walking up and down the aisle touch the aisle seat you have to sanitize your hands after taking your seat.

 

[Tom P.]

Where are the parts of this thread relating to WDW again?

 

[techgeek]

Please take it to PM if you still want to argue semantics and analysis. We're here to deal with how the disease will affect WDW.

Where are the parts of this thread relating to WDW again?

At this time, it can be factually said that we do not know how this disease will affect WDW.

We can also factually say that, given the historical precedent evidenced by the viruses effect on the countries of China and Italy, it is increasingly possible that WDW will be forced to close at some point either in the interest of public heath or due to worldwide economic fallout.

Predicting an exact date or certainty for either circumstance is impossible, but call them impossible at peril of being ignorant of reality.

(* This has been an attempt at to provide a fact-based summary of the preceding 93 pages without the use of semantics, numbers, interpretation, or analysis. I am not a professional in any of those fields.)

 

[DisneyCane]

It looks like most of the infected are on the aisle. It may also be spread by touching the aisle seat. I made sure my wife has the window seat on the plane and I will have the middle. An airline executive I heard interviewed said the airline cleans the plane after each flight but since people walking up and down the aisle touch the aisle seat you have to sanitize your hands after taking your seat.

From the emails I keep getting from every airline of which I am a member of their frequent flyer program, it seems like for domestic flights, the disinfecting is only being done over night.

For the last several years, I always wipe down my tray table (and importantly the part of the seat that it touches when closed), buttons, air vent, seatbelt (the metal parts), touch screen (if there), arm rest and the part of the window shade I will touch.

Now I have added the head rest and the wall next to me. Prior to all the coronavirus publicity my wife was always embarrassed while I did it. However, anecdotally, before I started the wipe downs, I would frequently get sick either during a trip or after returning home. Since I started doing this, I can't even remember the last time I got sick during a trip or soon after returning home.

Partially, I am a crazy OCD germaphobe. However, when it comes to planes (or trains or busses or monorails), if you observe people, way too many people do disgusting things that put germs on hard surfaces. Viruses and bacteria can survive for hours on hard surfaces. Long ago I wasn't a germaphobe. I was turned into one when making frequent visits to WDW and watching kids pick their nose and then grab handrails in the queue.

 

[Jrn14]

Coachella moved to October

 

[Chef Mickey]

The main difference right now is that there is a flu vaccine available that reduces the risk for people in the higher-risk categories. And no, it's not 100% effective because of variations in the strains that are more widespread from year to year - but it's more protection than is available for COVID-19.

The reality is even with a “vaccine” for the ”non dangerous“ flu, 500,000 people per year die from it.