Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[marni1971]

What about a soft opening with temp scans and limited restaurant capacities? I could see that happening in June. People are ready to open things up and you know these large corporations can't bleed money forever.

Am I too optimistic?

Possibly not. But I doubt “back to normal” would be this year.

 

[Parker in NYC]

What about a soft opening with temp scans and limited restaurant capacities? I could see that happening in June. People are ready to open things up and you know these large corporations can't bleed money forever.

Am I too optimistic?

Yep!

 

[Parker in NYC]

Perhaps a more relevant framework for assessing the success (or otherwise) of Sweden's strategy is a comparison with other Scandinavian countries:

Sweden’s coronavirus death toll rapidly increasing compared to other countries

Prime minister opts against strict lockdown in contrast to neighbours

www.independent.co.uk

Waiting for someone to say Johns Hopkins is biased.

 

[Kevin_W]

Perhaps a more relevant framework for assessing the success (or otherwise) of Sweden's strategy is a comparison with other Scandinavian countries:

Sweden’s coronavirus death toll rapidly increasing compared to other countries

Prime minister opts against strict lockdown in contrast to neighbours

www.independent.co.uk

Right - I think that shows how hard it is to draw conclusions. A relevant paragraph from the article

"While Sweden’s total fatalities per-million (118) is also concerning when compared to their neighbours: Denmark has suffered 55 deaths per million, while Finland’s rate is just 13 - with both nations implementing strict early lockdowns in an effort to limit the spread of the pathogen.
In fact, their per-million total is considerably higher than Germany (42), though lower than the UK (182) and significantly lower than both Italy (349) and Spain (399)."

Italy and Spain both also had early lockdowns, though also earlier starts to the pandemic as well.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

I took the time this morning to make a chart of daily new cases in Italy (where there was a national lockdown on day 19 of the chart and regional before that) vs. Sweden where they have not implemented widespread social distancing measures.

To create the chart, I overlaid the daily new case data beginning with the day each country saw more than 10 new cases. I normalized the data per 100,000 population. This normalized data is shown in blue for Italy and pink for Sweden. Since Sweden's count is so low per capita compared to Italy, I created the yellow line where I multiplied Sweden times 10 so the shape of the curve would be apparent to compare against Italy. Sweden is about 11 days behind Italy in the outbreak timeline so that is why the Sweden data ends earlier.

I am posting this as a factual presentation in a format that isn't easily available so that people can draw their own conclusions. In order to avoid back and forth arguments, I would like to request that nobody reply to this post or discuss the content in this thread. Please treat this as a simple display of data. If posters start arguing about it, I will ask @TheMom to delete the post and any subsequent posts.View attachment 464274

Why share to a public forum if you don't want discussion to take place?

 

[DCBaker]

Bob Iger named to California's Task Force on Business and Jobs Recovery -

 

[_caleb]

I too am struggling to understand how any amount of social distancing could be achieved at Disney. If it is doable at all, it would take so much thought and effort as to suck all the fun out of being there.

@MisterPenguin laid it out pretty well here:

Opening WDW with Social Distancing

This thread created for the narrow topic of discussing opening WDW with social distancing still in force since it keeps coming up in the Big Thread… WDW and Social Distancing People have been arguing whether it is possible that WDW can open and still maintain social distancing. Of course WDW...

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Why share to a public forum if you don't want discussion to take place?

Because the moderators don't want the back and forth argument but I took the time to create the chart for my own curiosity and thought it would be found interesting.

 

[zengoth]

So, here's an informal poll without the poll software.
Say, as some have said, Disney opens at reduced capacity - only letting in 1,000 - 2,000 folks
Who are these folks?

A. Folks staying in Disney hotels
B. Local AP folks who can drive in
C. It's a lottery - like the Willie Wonka golden ticket
D. Just the folks who can pay through the nose because ticket prices will be at a premium like Elon Musk space flights

(there's also first come first serve like the ROTR boarding parties, but that just seems like a dumpster fire waiting to happen).

 

[LittleBuford]

@MisterPenguin laid it out pretty well here:

Opening WDW with Social Distancing

This thread created for the narrow topic of discussing opening WDW with social distancing still in force since it keeps coming up in the Big Thread… WDW and Social Distancing People have been arguing whether it is possible that WDW can open and still maintain social distancing. Of course WDW...

forums.wdwmagic.com

I understand how it would work in principle, but I still can’t see how it’s really practicable. Where I am, it’s difficult enough to get people to keep their distance in a near-empty grocery store—and we’re now at the height of the pandemic.

 

[JoeCamel]

Because the moderators don't want the back and forth argument but I took the time to create the chart for my own curiosity and thought it would be found interesting.

Not sure why you would compare one against the other. The cultures and habits are very different so that impacts the spread.

 

[hopemax]

Here's an interesting story from MSN about the origin of the virus, going back to September. So much is still unknown at this point... https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...nLdsJSwCrZjreySrsFKmxDEmuHm5wLkZx0N8qhXf6oI2o

Saw the article earlier, and hate the "September" headlines.

Based on the data Forster and his colleagues have collected, the coronavirus outbreak appears to have started between September 13 and December 7. "This assumes a constant mutation rate, which is admittedly unlikely to be the case, and the time estimate could therefore be wrong," he told Newsweek. "But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019."

This in no way invalidates the idea that it started in November. But lay people read September and then go back to thinking that cold they had this winter was this.

 

[flynnibus]

I am posting this as a factual presentation in a format that isn't easily available so that people can draw their own conclusions. In order to avoid back and forth arguments, I would like to request that nobody reply to this post or discuss the content in this thread. Please treat this as a simple display of data. If posters start arguing about it, I will ask @TheMom to delete the post and any subsequent posts.

That's not how it works... the rules aren't there so you can just broadcast stuff and not face retort. If it doesn't belong here, it doesn't belong here.

I will simply say this... once again you compare apples and oranges. Comparing Sweden and Italy are like comparing Nebraska and New Jersey. You can add scalers to account for population sizes, but you're still not comparing like to like things such as population density, urban vs rural percentages, cultures, or demographics.

Your fixation on 'must compare' things is obsessive. Think about what data you are using and what it actually comes from before you keep mashing unlike things together.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I understand how it would work in principle, but I still can’t see how it’s really practicable. Where I am, it’s difficult enough to get people to keep their distance in a near-empty grocery store—and we’re now at the height of the pandemic.

Amen to this. I also think that even if masks are required on WDW property, they create a false sense of invincibility. Something very evident in my neighborhood. I mean look, we can't stop people from using their phones in theaters (that's getting so bad that I've been attending less and less), so any restrictive measures will be damn near impossible.

EDIT: Not to mention all the times I've seen people remove their masks to "take a break" and then forget to put them back up.

 

[King Capybara 77]

I took the time this morning to make a chart of daily new cases in Italy (where there was a national lockdown on day 19 of the chart and regional before that) vs. Sweden where they have not implemented widespread social distancing measures.

To create the chart, I overlaid the daily new case data beginning with the day each country saw more than 10 new cases. I normalized the data per 100,000 population. This normalized data is shown in blue for Italy and pink for Sweden. Since Sweden's count is so low per capita compared to Italy, I created the yellow line where I multiplied Sweden times 10 so the shape of the curve would be apparent to compare against Italy. Sweden is about 11 days behind Italy in the outbreak timeline so that is why the Sweden data ends earlier.

I am posting this as a factual presentation in a format that isn't easily available so that people can draw their own conclusions. In order to avoid back and forth arguments, I would like to request that nobody reply to this post or discuss the content in this thread. Please treat this as a simple display of data. If posters start arguing about it, I will ask @TheMom to delete the post and any subsequent posts.View attachment 464274

 

[GoofGoof]

Because the moderators don't want the back and forth argument but I took the time to create the chart for my own curiosity and thought it would be found interesting.

Just post it here and save yourself a lot of trouble and then people can talk about it too:

COVID-19

Argue to your heart’s content.

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[Polynesia]

Saw the article earlier, and hate the "September" headlines.

Based on the data Forster and his colleagues have collected, the coronavirus outbreak appears to have started between September 13 and December 7. "This assumes a constant mutation rate, which is admittedly unlikely to be the case, and the time estimate could therefore be wrong," he told Newsweek. "But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019."

This in no way invalidates the idea that it started in November. But lay people read September and then go back to thinking that cold they had this winter was this.

Hopefully people will know the difference between a cold and this virus. But it is possible people did have this virus earlier than first thought. My cardiologist mentioned the possibility to me. I trust his counsel over opinions with no basis

 

[Overlordkitty]

I understand how it would work in principle, but I still can’t see how it’s really practicable. Where I am, it’s difficult enough to get people to keep their distance in a near-empty grocery store—and we’re now at the height of the pandemic.

At my hospital's cafeteria I work at, I hadn't put 6 ft tape marks because we only have one or two people at a time it is so slow. And then we got complaints from the hospital staff that they need the tape in order to social distance. This is what scares me: people won't social distance without a piece of tape telling them to.

 

[techgeek]

I took the time this morning to make a chart of daily new cases in Italy (where there was a national lockdown on day 19 of the chart and regional before that) vs. Sweden where they have not implemented widespread social distancing measures.

To create the chart, I overlaid the daily new case data beginning with the day each country saw more than 10 new cases. I normalized the data per 100,000 population. This normalized data is shown in blue for Italy and pink for Sweden. Since Sweden's count is so low per capita compared to Italy, I created the yellow line where I multiplied Sweden times 10 so the shape of the curve would be apparent to compare against Italy. Sweden is about 11 days behind Italy in the outbreak timeline so that is why the Sweden data ends earlier.

I am posting this as a factual presentation in a format that isn't easily available so that people can draw their own conclusions. In order to avoid back and forth arguments, I would like to request that nobody reply to this post or discuss the content in this thread. Please treat this as a simple display of data. If posters start arguing about it, I will ask @TheMom to delete the post and any subsequent posts.View attachment 464274

Relevant xkcd:

Coronavirus Charts

xkcd.com

 

[Lilofan]

At my hospital's cafeteria I work at, I hadn't put 6 ft tape marks because we only have one or two people at a time it is so slow. And then we got complaints from the hospital staff that they need the tape in order to social distance. This is what scares me: people won't social distance without a piece of tape telling them to.

There probably will be separation tape but with the frequent rain storms during the hot and humid summers, the tape at the theme parks won't be waterproof.