Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Polynesia

Well-Known Member
I live in Ozaukee county also! Talk to the dr's here and they will tell you they had ~70 cases, many hospitalized that were all denied testing as early as mid-february. A lot of families went to Europe for travel over the winter mid break late January and Early February...and many returned sick but only China was still valid for testing at the time per cdc rules...

Yesterday at a local grocery store, the workers weren't wearing masks and most men 55-75 were not in masks. The 30 somethings were either in masks or in camo, no mask and coughing.... ugh
That’s pretty scary. I don’t think it helped letting the voting going forward. I saw the lines of people on tv. I’m in Florida and am required to wear a mask in our county. I’m ok with that. Hope it helps shorten our time on lock down.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Why Hospitals Are "Empty"

  • The models we have involve guess work based on information that is woefully lacking.
  • And that's because we don't have tests. We don't know how many people have actually been infected because of those who show little to no symptoms. So, we really don't know how fast it spreads, all we have is a range of best guesses.
  • Models, by definition, have a range of outcomes. Like the "cone of prediction" for hurricanes, there is a cone of predictions for CV's spread, intensive care needs, and death.
    • And because of that spread, officials need to prepare for the worst case scenario. Imagine if they didn't and the worst case scenario came anyway? That would be bad. Very bad.
  • While models take into account social distancing and lockdowns... they don't until it happens. And so their information lags behind and the effects of those behaviors lag behind.
  • Models have taken individual states into account, but their models started with only a few data points from each newly infected state and gets refined with new day-by-day information. So, it's easy for their projections to initially show overwhelmed ICUs at first, but then, thankfully, it doesn't happen.
  • Models seem to have trouble distinguishing unusual populations: very dense cities like NYC, high number of elderly, like Italy. Mortality and spread rates differ significantly for these groups and a one-size-fits all isn't giving a complete picture.

  • Preparing for the worst case scenario causes drastic responses. If you prepare for the worst case then hospitals need to:
  • Move as many of their workers who can work with CV patient off of other jobs (e.g., orthopedic surgery) and make them available for the worst case scenario.
  • Clear out of the hospital as many non-CV patients as you can. Those beds may not have ventilators or IC units, but they can be used for convalescence for those cycling through ICU.
  • The hospital and officials don't want patients without CV catching it. Just look at how many hospital workers became infected. That greatly increases the risk of transferring it to other non-CV patients.


  • It's not just the hospitals and officials that freed up all those empty beds:
  • Doctors' offices reduced their caseload. They don't want their office to be a hot zone of CV spread. So, they're not funneling people into the hospital for tests and procedures that can wait.
  • People don't want to go to the hospital. I've seen online questions from pregnant women as to what they should do because they don't want to go to the hospital that has CV patients. Would any of you go to the hospital now if you can avoid it knowing it's a hot zone for the plague?

Hospital beds are empty not because of bad planning, but because of appropriate planning.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I live in Ozaukee county also! Talk to the dr's here and they will tell you they had ~70 cases, many hospitalized that were all denied testing as early as mid-february. A lot of families went to Europe for travel over the winter mid break late January and Early February...and many returned sick but only China was still valid for testing at the time per cdc rules...

Yesterday at a local grocery store, the workers weren't wearing masks and most men 55-75 were not in masks. The 30 somethings were either in masks or in camo, no mask and coughing.... ugh
I don’t know where Ozaukee County is...but it just made my self imposed travel ban list 👍🏻
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
Exactly right. The same reason there was no toilet paper. It only takes a subset of "preppers" who consume exponentially what they could ever need, to ruin it for everyone.
Or they are high risk categories and need to stay in their homes without weekly trips to grocery store for 3-5 weeks.
And as I asked, are you missing a comma? Read your post. You were missing a comma so I asked for clarification if that was a typo or not.
The number is the same with or without the comma... the comma doesn't change anything....
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Why Hospitals Are "Empty"

  • The models we have involve guess work based on information that is woefully lacking.
  • And that's because we don't have tests. We don't know how many people have actually been infected because of those who show little to no symptoms. So, we really don't know how fast it spreads, all we have is a range of best guesses.
  • Models, by definition, have a range of outcomes. Like the "cone of prediction" for hurricanes, there is a cone of predictions for CV's spread, intensive care needs, and death.
    • And because of that spread, officials need to prepare for the worst case scenario. Imagine if they didn't and the worst case scenario came anyway? That would be bad. Very bad.
  • While models take into account social distancing and lockdowns... they don't until it happens. And so their information lags behind and the effects of those behaviors lag behind.
  • Models have taken individual states into account, but their models started with only a few data points from each newly infected state and gets refined with new day-by-day information. So, it's easy for their projections to initially show overwhelmed ICUs at first, but then, thankfully, it doesn't happen.
  • Models seem to have trouble distinguishing unusual populations: very dense cities like NYC, high number of elderly, like Italy. Mortality and spread rates differ significantly for these groups and a one-size-fits all isn't giving a complete picture.

  • Preparing for the worst case scenario causes drastic responses. If you prepare for the worst case then hospitals need to:
  • Move as many of their workers who can work with CV patient off of other jobs (e.g., orthopedic surgery) and make them available for the worst case scenario.
  • Clear out of the hospital as many non-CV patients as you can. Those beds may not have ventilators or IC units, but they can be used for convalescence for those cycling through ICU.
  • The hospital and officials don't want patients without CV catching it. Just look at how many hospital workers became infected. That greatly increases the risk of transferring it to other non-CV patients.


  • It's not just the hospitals and officials that freed up all those empty beds:
  • Doctors' offices reduced their caseload. They don't want their office to be a hot zone of CV spread. So, they're not funneling people into the hospital for tests and procedures that can wait.
  • People don't want to go to the hospital. I've seen online questions from pregnant women as to what they should do because they don't want to go to the hospital that has CV patients. Would any of you go to the hospital now if you can avoid it knowing it's a hot zone for the plague?

Hospital beds are empty not because of bad planning, but because of appropriate planning.
Hospitals should be empty....

That’s what would be needed IF things flash.

Proper planning gets so little credit/respect in the modern world.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
That’s in addition to their regular pay. No, it’s not scraping by. It’s taking advantage of getting full pay and earning extra on the side.
My bad. I read the whole post wrong. Glad they are making extra money. They need to because their regular pay isn’t what most would call a good living. I’m guessing even with the side job it’s not enough for some but every bit helps.
 

Rteetz

Well-Known Member
I think Wisconsin did peak already this week. I actually understand the mindset of Ozaukee. It’s so totally different than Milwaukee County. I really miss Pick ‘N Save. Lol. My husband takes all the necessary precautions as I’m sure you do. My daughter said in Waukesha County there weren’t a lot of folks wearing masks either. She’s actually terrified to go out to the store because of this. My grandson is high risk so she’s got her family on a tight lock down. The nursing homes seem to be a hot spot in a lot of the states. In Florida they’re going to start testing them specifically with the help of the National Guard. Stay safe😊
Well we may have but we were also waiting to see the impacts of the in person election and if that may have spiked cases.
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
I just saw a news article where the governor of Florida cut off the states Surgeon General when he mentioned the social distancing needed to last until the end of the year. That doesn't look too good for those hoping for a quick return to amusement parks.
Or it does if the gov decided not to follow the advice of the SG...which if you cut a mic, may be the case...
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
I don't want to get into an economic discussion here -- that's for the politics thread -- but these studies are conducted by people I trust with no agenda whatsoever. I take it for what it is - separate and apart from everything else.
Actually, the people doing the studies do have agendas, as most of them are paid for by the government.

So, the idea of reopening any entertainment venues, including theme parks comes down to one fundamental question:
Do you trust the government (federal, state and local) completely or do you think the government is testing us to see how much of our liberties we are wiling to let them take in the name of safety?

If you completely trust the government, then the theme parks should remain closed until they say so; however, keep in mind the theme parks can't remained closed indefinitely, even once CMs are furloughed, there is still a lot of expense being incurred. And California's economy is heavily dependent on entertainment and theme parks and if the theme parks fail, so does California's economy, which is the 5th largest economy in the world. That also means, the U.S. economy fails and we end up in a depression, which would have devastating effects and make the deaths caused by Covid-19 look small with death on a far more massive scale and in ways that would be even more heartbreaking than what we see with this disease.

If you don't trust the government, then those that are insisting we reopen things are most likely suggesting the correct course of action, as we the people need to be willing to stand up and say we will not let our rights be trampled in the name of safety, which would also include reopening the theme parks.

So the reality is the theme parks and other entertainment venues need to reopen in the relatively near future, not matter which position you take, otherwise we are looking at death and disease on a scale we can't even begin to fathom.

Now there are logical things that can be done, such as reducing max capacity (which Disney parks should have done long ago just to keep the park crowds at more comfortable levels), more virtual queues, but then you need somewhere for people to safely go while waiting, so there will need to be more show venues setup, as each venue would need to operate at reduced capacity. Quick Service could become mobile order only, lids for drinks will need to come back, all resorts will need to switch back to individual amenities instead of shared amenities. We could see all attractions with FP becoming FP only, when you return, you would go through the standby queue and the FP queue would be for those with DAS, wheelchair, over a certain age (in other words high risk) and guest recovery. We could also see something like the parks allowing those that are high risk to enter the parks two hours early with everything running. There will also likely be permanent hand washing stations setup throughout the park. But really, I think all restaurants (everywhere, not just in theme parks) should have hand washing stations setup outside of restrooms, they do this at most places in the Philippines and it really makes a lot of sense, no need to go into a restroom just to wash your hands.
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
What is weird is that there is also a mid-west coalition (ND, MN, WI, MI, and IL) and that's not really getting the press. But yeah, some regions have figured out there are steps that HAVE to be done, and they're going to need to get there, regardless of what the Federal mandates are or help they do or don't receive. Better to have a united front when the legal battles start being waged.

I haven't seen anything on that in the way the other ones have - I know WI, MN, MI were starting to work on it - but without IN, MO and IA it would be useless unless they block the borders. Do you have a link? would love to see what is actually coming out.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Except in countries where the comma is used in a number the same way a decimal is used in a number in the USA.
1.000 in the USA = 1,000 in many other countries

Pfft. That's just a very significant one in freedom enumeration!
 

imsosarah

Well-Known Member
I agree. It may include masks and temperature checks. No one knows how this will play out really. We’re all just speculating.
The way CA Gov was talking, Disney land won't be open for a LONG time (no large events, concerts, weddings, conferences, etc likely through end of year) - will be interesting if FL follows the same approach...
 
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