Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Rich Brownn]

They have Disney + and news media is the only game in town right now with no sports so maybe that helps ABC ratings. The network shows were mostly done filming so they still get advertising dollars for showing them. If this lasts into the summer they may have to delay the fall season of shows. The parks are bleeding cash but at least they had almost 6 months of good results. Consumer products are probably down but the bigger question is will they ramp up the supply chain in time for the holiday rush. That’s when they make the big bucks.

It will be interesting to see if they go negative for the year. One other possible thing that may happen is they may use this pandemic as a chance to write off a lot of bad investments. Take the hit now and burry it in with the losses from the pandemic.

Some shows are running out of episodes. Some shows are in production only a week or two before airing.

 

[Rich Brownn]

I don't have any kind of inside knowledge or anything...

but I find it hard to believe ALL SARS and MERS vaccine research ended.

According to articles it did, as funding dried up after they disappeared.

 

[DC0703]

I think there is more to it than that. One of the historical criterion to be an "expert" was knowledge and access to information. Today we all have nearly unlimited access to information.

For instance, I work in the R&D department of a chemical company with a bunch of men and women with PHD's in chemistry. These people have the smarts to be medical doctors, epidemiologists, or whatever they wanted to be. They just chose chemistry. But in a time like this, they can apply that same intelligence and reasoning to medical data to draw their own conclusions. In this case, the training and experience of an epidemiologist might still mean something, but in a truly unprecedented case like this it might not.

As someone who works in a field related to medical research, I can tell you that simply having a doctorate degree does not mean you are equally qualified to interpret medical data. You may be able to have a better understanding of research methods than a layperson, but you would have no medical background to draw experience from.

Epidemiology is about more than just reading some tables and making projections. There is a whole medical backbone that involves working alongside doctors of other disciplines to understand the biology of diseases and how they impact patients, to understand disease diagnosis, and to determine appropriate treatments based on data.

Stated differently, you might be able to understand some charts of data or projection curves, but only an expert has actually spent a great deal of time studying how the disease behaves. Or in the case of COVID, how similar diseases have behaved.

Conversely - an doctor would not be qualified to give an expert opinion on the proper way to titrate chemical compounds like a chemist would, despite working with drugs.

 

[thomas998]

As someone who works in academia, I cannot disagree more. Each branch of expertise entails its own training and methods, and a non-epidemiologist, no matter how well versed in chemistry, is in no way equipped to offer as insightful an opinion as an actual specialist. Having access to information is one thing, but knowing what to do with it is quite another.

The problem is that when you have supposed know it alls in a particular field they also tend to get trapped in the box of what is known and never look beyond it. If Nicholas Tesla had not dropped out of university and went out on his own he would have probably never achieved the success he gained because the system would have beaten any ingenuity out of him. There are lots of great achievement made by people that simply have a passion for a particular field of study but couldn't accept the constraints of academia. Give me a smart passionate person in a field over someone that just played the game to get their PhD any day because there are too many people that get their PhDs simply to get what they see as a cushy job that really have no real interest in the field they are supposedly experts in... maybe 10 percent of the professors I ever had in college were really passionate about what they were doing the rest just seemed to be burn outs going through the motions.

 

[thomas998]

According to articles it did, as funding dried up after they disappeared.

According to one report the bio-lab in Wuhan was still working on a SARS vaccines as of last year. That was one of the reasons that the bio-lab was supposedly doing research on coronaviruses found in bats. My understanding is that some Chinese researchers had already found one SARS vaccine back in 2007 that was tested on 36 human subjects where it was found to be safe and even elicited SARS-CoV-specific neutralizing antibodies but because there was no natural outbreak of SARS in China they had not been able to prove that it really offered protection as SARS pretty much burned itself out in the world outside labs.

I think in general though most researchers stopped working on SARS outside of China because it was viewed as an orphan disease while China still considered it a threat given it originated from that part of the world. If you do a google search on NIH funding of Wuhan lab you'll find articles on how the US government was funding coronavirus studies in bats at the biolab. Exactly why we were doing it is still a bit unclear with some claims that it was because the lab in China was able to do animal testing that would have gotten lots of bad PR if done in the US or other Western countries.

 

[LittleBuford]

As someone that is in academia I would expect you to think that,. The problem is that when you have supposed know it alls in a particular field they also tend to get trapped in the box of what is known and never look beyond it. If Nicholas Tesla had not dropped out of university and went out on his own he would have probably never achieved the success he gained because the system would have beaten any ingenuity out of him. There are lots of great achievement made by people that simply have a passion for a particular field of study but couldn't accept the constraints of academia. Give me a smart passionate person in a field over someone that just played the game to get their PhD any day because there are too many people that get their PhDs simply to get what they see as a cushy job that really have no real interest in the field they are supposedly experts in... maybe 10 percent of the professors I ever had in college were really passionate about what they were doing the rest just seemed to be burn outs going through the motions.

I didn't say people couldn't achieve great success without degrees. My parents both left school at 16 and did very well for themselves. But when it comes to certain things—medical care, legal services, and, yes, sound advice in the context of a pandemic—I am always going to trust well-qualified experts over a random "smart passionate person" without the necessary training.

 

[thomas998]

I don't have any kind of inside knowledge or anything...

but I find it hard to believe ALL SARS and MERS vaccine research ended.

SARS research was till being done in China but in most the world there was no reason to keep searching for a vaccine for a disease that was no longer a threat. You had the big outbreak in 2002 that lasted a couple of years and then burned out... why would most research facilities even think you had any reason to keep looking for vaccine for something that was no longer a threat?

 

[MisterPenguin]

This is the current top rated comment on this article (and a NYT pick):

"I'd like to The NYTimes convene and share the content of a panel discussion of the following people:

A working parent of a developmentally disabled, autistic, handicapped or otherwise special needs child who depends on services offered in the public schools, services his parents are not able or qualified to provide him.

A person close to retirement whose savings could be decimated or even just evaporate in an economic depression, making the difference between the dignified and comfortable retirement she expected and a miserable, impoverished, and, yes, attenuated old age.

An hourly worker who has been fired or laid off and who soon won't be able to afford food, let alone rent.

A couple who will be unable to pay for their children's educations due to pay cuts, job loss, etc. subsequent to a prolonged shutdown.

A patient whose cancer surgery has been postponed due to wildly inaccurate projections of hospital use somewhere other than NYC.

A worker who has lost her job and therefore her health insurance and can't afford life sustaining medications. People with insurance couldn't afford insulin before this!

Instead, we get a panel of well fed, well paid, and comfortably housed "thinkers" airily tossing out prognostications of endless, untenable shutdowns. I'll bet my group would have much a different discussion and conclusions."

- UpperEastSideGuy

What I don't understand from this comment is that the experts gathered were mostly advocates for people in those groups and constantly were pointing out how decisions can't be made just for those who have wealth and comfort. It's almost like they didn't read the article. The experts bemoaned the lack of social safety nets for the working class and poor. So... they don't want experts advocating for them?

Also, rich irony that that comment was written by "UpperEastSideGuy."

Also, this comment shows why you have experts: "A patient whose cancer surgery has been postponed due to wildly inaccurate projections of hospital use somewhere other than NYC." The surgery was canceled because the projections showed the worst case scenario that was avoided by social distancing. It's because surgeries were canceled and we had social distancing that most hospitals weren't overwhelmed. And someone who has cancer is in a super high risk group if exposed to COVID.

 

[GoofGoof]

Some shows are running out of episodes. Some shows are in production only a week or two before airing.

Yep, like I said the fall season is going to be either a late start or some shows may just not premier until the winter. That’s assuming they get production up soon. If not they may lose almost a whole season.

 

[wiretapped]

I agree with everything you've said. Humans are unpredictable, and we all know - as evidenced by the grocery store shortages - that there is a decent-sized chunk who will think only of themselves and will say "to hell with the rest of the world".

Exactly right. The same reason there was no toilet paper. It only takes a subset of "preppers" who consume exponentially what they could ever need, to ruin it for everyone.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Exactly right. The same reason there was no toilet paper. It only takes a subset of "preppers" who consume exponentially what they could ever need, to ruin it for everyone.

It's STILL hard to find TP or tissues up here...along with hand soap, hand sanitizer, windex, dishwasher liquid, sometimes laundry detergent...

 

[JohnD]

It's STILL hard to find TP or tissues up here...along with hand soap, hand sanitizer, windex, dishwasher liquid, sometimes laundry detergent...

If you're in dire need of TP, grab a box of Kleenex or comparable. It will work in a pinch.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

If you're in dire need of TP, grab a box of Kleenex or comparable. It will work in a pinch.

Yup...we had that discussion at the beginning of March. Fortunately, we're managing to find some when we need it, but it requires hitting a few extra stores...which sort of defeats limiting shopping trips.

 

[wm49rs]

Not sure I see the conspiracy theory in the post. Mostly just known facts.

Must have missed the part where he offered up facts instead of opines....

 

[marni1971]

Americans were first told masks were not useful to prevent the spread..

Really? That’s what we were told they were only useful for.

 

[solidyne]

[...] I am sure this is going to be deleted.

Yup. Not exactly political, but part of the "same old back and forth," ha!

 

[JoeCamel]

Yup...we had that discussion at the beginning of March. Fortunately, we're managing to find some when we need it, but it requires hitting a few extra stores...which sort of defeats limiting shopping trips.

Was just in Publix and they had large packs of Cottonelle, a few days ago it was small packs of Northern. This is in the middle of the morning so the supply chain is filling back up.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Was just in Publix and they had large packs of Cottonelle, a few days ago it was small packs of Northern. This is in the middle of the morning so the supply chain is filling back up.

The only way I've been able to get my allergy medicine is to go at 11 pm while CVS is restocking. Last night I also saw a bag of sugar in the grocery aisle and thought, wow, who knew this moment could be so euphoric?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

They kept on this no masks thing for a long time after this. After Corona was here and a danger, they still told us not to wear masks.

eta....

I am sure this is going to be deleted.

The main reason for the change of whether to wear one or not was there was increasing evidence that the virus can be spread by presymptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.As the experts gather more info everyday, things change. That’s what science is all about. When they find something that doesn’t match up with what they figured out before, they adjust and change and get the best info out as soon as they know.
There are still many unknowns with this and I’m sure there will be more adjustments. I’m happy to see science working like it should.

 

[LittleBuford]

If you're in dire need of TP, grab a box of Kleenex or comparable. It will work in a pinch.

Don’t flush it, though. It’s terrible for plumbing.