Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

what happens if a vaccine never surfaces? There has yet to be one for SARS and MERS. We as a people cant hide from this forever.

There are literally hundreds of billions of reasons why a vaccine will be created. The reason SARS and MERS vaccines never happened is the researchers ran out of money. No money to be made in preventing a virus that pretty much disappeared. Now if this one just goes away on it’s own too that would be fantastic and even better than a vaccine. I’m not holding out hope.

 

[flynnibus]

They have Disney + and news media is the only game in town right now with no sports so maybe that helps ABC ratings. The network shows were mostly done filming so they still get advertising dollars for showing them. If this lasts into the summer they may have to delay the fall season of shows. The parks are bleeding cash but at least they had almost 6 months of good results. Consumer products are probably down but the bigger question is will they ramp up the supply chain in time for the holiday rush. That’s when they make the big bucks.

Disney+ is a nice story - but it's not paying the bills. Subscriptions are more than 2x over expected path.. but it was still projected to lose money for some time. Huge cost.. but no external money coming in for it from other parties.. just subscribers.. which many are 'free' to start. So it's still gonna be a huge negative on the sheet, even tho it has a nice story with it for the long run.

Disney has tons of channels.. but just like we've seen with advertising in the mail, and other avenues... advertising is way down. TV will be a bright spot.. but that's just one place. Nevermind the massive losses happening from not having advertising during the live sports...

Consumer products is likely to be crushed by the fact no one can go out and shop freely.. no one is vacation spending... and when you put consumer confidence on top of that.. they are probably going to be forecasting weak markets for awhile.

It's wild when we think about it.. we think Disney is this big diverse conglomerate... but really at the end of the day it's all consumer driven consumption products. Without that consumer... Disney is standing there stark naked...

 

[flynnibus]

There are literally hundreds of billions of reasons why a vaccine will be created. The reason SARS and MERS vaccines never happened is the researchers ran out of money. No money to be made in preventing a virus that pretty much disappeared. Now if this one just goes away on it’s own too that would be fantastic and even better than a vaccine. I’m not holding out hope.

Money isn't the sole thing...

The money isn't spent on those virus anymore because they don't pose the same threat now. New threats would likely be different.

In some way you hope for them to simply 'go away' through their own mutations...

 

[techgeek]

In a New York Times Magazine article on April 10th, doctor and public health expert Zeke Emmanuel said,

"Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest."

Think Disney parks can stay closed until Fall 2021?

As someone that, until early March, used to have a career supporting conventions and events... this is definitely a gut punch, but a conclusion I had already mostly reached myself. And I’ve been hearing of outright cancellations of events that were pushed / delayed... people are going into very serious wait and see mode on the business side of things.

I don’t know how the economies of Orlando (or Vegas, for that matter) will survive without business meetings. Many of the hotel rooms in town actually support the meeting industry, not specifically the parks... without business travel not only do they remain shuttered or at a fraction of capacity (the Ritz / JW Marriott, Marriott world center, Rosen properties, Hyatt and Hilton’s near the convention center and on Hotel Plaza... even Universal’s Royal Pacific is mainly a convention hotel..) but there’s a huge spillover crowd missing from the parks as well.

 

[Slpy3270]

Disney entering into new $5 billion credit agreement with Citibank.

Disney enters new $5B credit agreement with Citibank (NYSE:DIS)

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) on Friday entered into a 364-day credit agreement with Citibank for up to $5B, it discloses in a new filing.

seekingalpha.com

Yeah this is gonna lead to a credit downgrade and a huge debt load for sure.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Money isn't the sole thing...

The money isn't spent on those virus anymore because they don't pose the same threat now. New threats would likely be different.

In some way you hope for them to simply 'go away' through their own mutations...

I don't have any kind of inside knowledge or anything...

but I find it hard to believe ALL SARS and MERS vaccine research ended.

 

[flynnibus]

I don't have any kind of inside knowledge or anything...

but I find it hard to believe ALL SARS and MERS vaccine research ended.

Not all - but when you say 'why isn't it a top priority anymore to find a vaccine for MERS'... the reason is it's not the most pressing topic as the strains mutate and the threat subsides.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't have any kind of inside knowledge or anything...

but I find it hard to believe ALL SARS and MERS vaccine research ended.

Not all, but a lot of the funding dried up.

 

[DCBaker]

After the evening update, the numbers for FL in the last 24 hours - 1,124 reported new cases and an additional 38 deaths.

 

[BaconPancakes]

Let’s get those parks back open now! /sarcasm

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Media attention, and actual research funding are two very different things.

 

[Kristoff]

Another random thought I was just thinking about. Assuming the parks open by June, there is still a very real chance the travel ban currently in place for the roughly 25ish countries currently being affected will still remain in effect for some time afterward. What kind of response would that have on park attendance (outside of less cheering and horns from some non us tour groups)? In addition to US people who might not feel comfortable going so soon after re-opening.

 

[GoofGoof]

Another random thought I was just thinking about. Assuming the parks open by June, there is still a very real chance the travel ban currently in place for the roughly 25ish countries currently being affected will still remain in effect for some time afterward. What kind of response would that have on park attendance (outside of less cheering and horns from some non us tour groups)? In addition to US people who might not feel comfortable going so soon after re-opening.

I think it was posted a while back that international tourists make up around 20% of the total at WDW. The biggest country is Canada but the UK and South America are also large. I wouldn’t expect international tourism to ramp back up for 6 months or more.

 

[MrConbon]

Another random thought I was just thinking about. Assuming the parks open by June, there is still a very real chance the travel ban currently in place for the roughly 25ish countries currently being affected will still remain in effect for some time afterward. What kind of response would that have on park attendance (outside of less cheering and horns from some non us tour groups)? In addition to US people who might not feel comfortable going so soon after re-opening.

Expect significantly shorter hours. Think 9-5.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Another random thought I was just thinking about. Assuming the parks open by June, there is still a very real chance the travel ban currently in place for the roughly 25ish countries currently being affected will still remain in effect for some time afterward. What kind of response would that have on park attendance (outside of less cheering and horns from some non us tour groups)? In addition to US people who might not feel comfortable going so soon after re-opening.

It is expected that summer vacations world-wide will largely be for residents of the country where the attraction is found.

 

[thomas998]

If you give 2nd graders a 50 page packet, and tell them they have 60 days to do it, they freak out.

If you give them 2 pages per day for 30 days, they easily complete all 60 pages.

Actually, 7th graders, and many 9th graders react the same way.

**************************************************

Telling the public they have to stay home for 60 days would trigger a similar reaction.

Phased closures, and phased announcements work best.

Frogs in a pot.

Probably best for most people, but I prefer to know the full price I'm going to pay up front so I can plan accordingly. When I was given a workbook in 2nd grade I took it home and was finished before Thanksgiving. I like to get things over with as quickly as possible and simply hate it when someone slowrolls bad news, to me it is like pulling a bandaid off real slowly, just rip it off and be done with it.

 

[Flugell]

Just sat here thinking, which is always a dangerous situation, it is possible that my husband and I will never be able to make it back to WDW which is an awful thought. My husband is nearly 72 and it’s a long and tiring flight from the U.K.. At least we have been a few times and have some very happy memories. The people I feel sorriest for, apart from those that have lost people to this disease, are the hundreds maybe thousands of children whose end of life wish is to visit Disney. Now they may not live long enough or be well enough to do so and can’t even visit anywhere similar in their own country. It must be heartbreaking for them and unbearable for their parents who wanted to create one last happy memory. Can’t even think of a way to help.
Sorry to be morbid but just wanted to illustrate that there are people worse off than us who want Disney open so we can go. Even if they were able, temperature screening and suchlike would probably rule them out.

 

[thomas998]

Do you understand how body temperature works though?

Yes, I understand how it works.. I also know how the FLIR cameras work and if you have them out aimed at people walking in a sunny area where the temps are close to 90 to 100 degrees you don't get a very good image, nor do you get a very good reading if sunlight is reflecting off people when you start trying to get a reading. If you read the manuals of some of the FLIR cameras they have all sorts of little caveats as to how they are best used and zapping people outside in the middle of a the day when it is in the 90's is going against so many things it isn't even funny. Even more ridiculous is some of them will even have buried in the fine print that to get an accurate reading on internal temps of humans you need to look at the reading from the tear ducts because it is the best place to get a accurate reading for internal body temps.. The cameras are going to be like metal detectors, a feel good gizmo to make people think they are safer than they are.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

NIH funding that went towards "emerging Infectious diseases": (in millions)

FY2016 - $2,336
FY2017 - $2,591
FY 2018 - $2,767
FY2019 - $2,950


From NIH (National Institute of Health) report of categorical spending, Research Portfolio Reporting Tools

Much of what the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease does is to research infectious diseases.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

NIH funding that went towards "emerging Infectious diseases": (in millions)

FY2016 - $2,336
FY2017 - $2,591
FY 2018 - $2,767
FY2019 - $2950


From NIH (National Institute of Health) report of categorical spending, Research Portfolio Reporting Tools

Much of what the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease does is to research infectious diseases.

Are you missing a comma in FY2019 or did they spend only $2,950 dollars?