Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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thomas998

Well-Known Member
Medical grade IR thermometers take into account ambient temperature.

Also, humans aren't cold blooded. We regulate our temperature to the same small range whether it's cold or hot. If we didn't, we'd die.
We aren't talking IR thermometers, it is the FLIR cameras and if you read the websites of the companies that sell them they have a lot of requirements to actually work accurately and have lots of little notes related to not depending on them to detect people with the virus. In short they basically admit that they make people feel better but can't be depended to really catch those infected.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
I doubt they will end the year with a loss at all. Remember the parks are only a part of their business.

Correct... but their other major pillars are also impacted
- Movies
- TV ad revenue w/sports
- Consumer Products (retail both in and out of parks is hindered)

While their operating costs go down when idled, their costs don't goto zero. Things like utilities, taxes, essential services, employee costs... all these things keep going, with radically reduced revenue to offset them. So some segments will be worse than others... but they are still bleeding money... with little to no revenue to show for it. That eats into any profit they made in the first half of the year.

All four pillars of the company are impacted
- Media Networks
- Parks & Experience
- Studios
- Direct Consumer & International

Will the expenses eat into the tipping point of a loss? I don't know.. but since their net margins are usually only 15-25%... I bet they go in the red overall.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Yeah. No Scott....


“Given the ongoing contraction of TV ratings, any growth is noteworthy. As it happens, the NFL’s gains coincide with a 7 percent seasonal decline in the overall usage of TV and a 9 percent year-to-year drop in overall primetime deliveries.

The gulf between the reach of the NFL and even the most popular scripted series has grown only wider; while CBS’s “NCIS” remains the most-watched entertainment program with an average draw of 11.4 million live-same-day viewers—a figure that more than doubles the overall primetime average of 5.9 million viewers per night—that pales in comparison with the numbers football puts up each week. The league’s top TV property, the national Sunday afternoon window shared by Fox and CBS, averaged a staggering 24.3 million viewers in 2019, up 8 percent versus last season’s 22.6 million, while NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” grew 4 percent to just under 20 million viewers.”
Once again you are pulling in multiple programs and then comparing them to a single show. That isn't useful and is completely against the original discussion that was solely on Monday Night Football. If you want to start doing this kind of thing then why not compare all the people that watched something other than football to football it would make as much sense, which is no sense at all.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Correct... but their other major pillars are also impacted
- Movies
- TV ad revenue w/sports
- Consumer Products (retail both in and out of parks is hindered)

While their operating costs go down when idled, their costs don't goto zero. Things like utilities, taxes, essential services, employee costs... all these things keep going, with radically reduced revenue to offset them. So some segments will be worse than others... but they are still bleeding money... with little to no revenue to show for it. That eats into any profit they made in the first half of the year.

All four pillars of the company are impacted
- Media Networks
- Parks & Experience
- Studios
- Direct Consumer & International

Will the expenses eat into the tipping point of a loss? I don't know.. but since their net margins are usually only 15-25%... I bet they go in the red overall.
Even if they were to go slightly negative it is a long ways off from the poster that was suggesting they just admit they were going to lose 30 to 50 billion this year, which was a ridiculous assumption.
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
give you the last 5 years of Monday Night Football. I think part of the problem is I have been talking about the viewers for Monday Night Football which is what the whole conversation on viewership was based on in the earlier post about ESPN and their Monday Night Programming... Now you've throwing in all NFL games.

If you want to look at all NFL games then here is the averages for viewers the top 10 broadcast shows in 2006 during the regular football season.
Program Viewers
1. FOX Sunday National Game 21.8 million
2. Desperate Housewives 20.7 million
3. Dancing With The Stars 20.5 million
4. CBS Sunday National Game 19.5 million
5. Dancing With The Stars Results 19.0 million
6. CSI 18.8 million
7. NBC Sunday Night Football 17.0 million*
8. Grey’s Anatomy 16.9 million
9. CSI: Miami 16.1 million
10. Deal Or No Deal 16.0 million

You'll notice that back then you have much higher viewership than you do today with your 15.8 million viewers. Those are just the facts like it or not.

I would be interested to know the source of their numbers and whether or not it takes into account streaming services or not. Cable has been impacted massively by cord cutters and people are moving to different platforms to watch sports or anything in general. It's a reason why overnight numbers are no longer considered as valuable as +7 and +28 day ratings, taking into account DVR number. If this is just based off Nielsen ratings from cable providers, the fact that MNF has been increasing and is nearly at 2015 levels is actually impressive because of the shrinking number of cable subscribers. That supports the theory that sports is the only reason why cable is around (which is very true as programming costs for live sports is significant and why the bidding for those contracts is so highly coveted).

Yeah. No Scott....


“Given the ongoing contraction of TV ratings, any growth is noteworthy. As it happens, the NFL’s gains coincide with a 7 percent seasonal decline in the overall usage of TV and a 9 percent year-to-year drop in overall primetime deliveries.

The gulf between the reach of the NFL and even the most popular scripted series has grown only wider; while CBS’s “NCIS” remains the most-watched entertainment program with an average draw of 11.4 million live-same-day viewers—a figure that more than doubles the overall primetime average of 5.9 million viewers per night—that pales in comparison with the numbers football puts up each week. The league’s top TV property, the national Sunday afternoon window shared by Fox and CBS, averaged a staggering 24.3 million viewers in 2019, up 8 percent versus last season’s 22.6 million, while NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” grew 4 percent to just under 20 million viewers.”

This is very accurate. Sports is the king of TV these days and is one of the few 'appointment watching' for a lot of people these days. Networks recognize this and it is why between 2014-2022, NBC/CBS/FOX/ESPN are paying $40 billion to broadcast NFL games.
 

shernernum

Well-Known Member
Depends on the timeframe you are looking at. While 2019 was higher than the previous 4 years it was still below 2015. And if you look at Monday Night Football back in before 2010 you would often have viewer over 15 million. So have it improved since the low point in 2017 when it averaged 10.7 million, yes... but it has still been underperforming compared to its heyday.
2018 is higher than 2017 and 2019 is higher than 2018. You said 'Given the slumping rating that football has had in the past few years'. Which is not actually the case, they are down from their "ALL TIME HIGH" but in an era where TV ratings are decreasing across the board, the NFL has had two straight years of increase. So, please don't move the goalposts on your argument. The narrative of decreasing ratings started with the Kaepernick fiasco, and while I'm no fan of his, it ended up being a temporary loss. Also, of course MNF doesn't get the sme ratings it did in 2000, when it was on a network and not ESPN. Monday Night Football had higher ratings when it was the marquee game of the week on ABC (which ended in 2006) and was the only one in Prime Time. Now it is on ESPN, and they no longer get the marquee match-up. Sunday Night Football is now the marquee game of the week, followed by whatever they flex into the later spots on Sunday. Plus there are, of course Thursday Night games now. However, this has nothing to do with COVID-19 and WDW, so I guess I will stop now.
 

Polynesia

Well-Known Member
Orange County update; masks will not be required for Orange County but strongly urged to wear them, continued deacceleration of covid cases seeing a possible flattening of the curve, continue more testing, fines no longer in effect for Osceola County if you don’t wear a mask
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Orange County update; masks will not be required for Orange County but strongly urged to wear them, continued deacceleration of covid cases seeing a possible flattening of the curve, continue more testing, fines no longer in effect for Osceola County if you don’t wear a mask
Manatee county extends curfew (11pm-5am) to the end of the month but issues a clarification that police can only enforce it on public property. That is disappointing
Hillsborough county implements 9pm - 5 am curfew due to large house parties....
 

_caleb

Well-Known Member
In a New York Times Magazine article on April 10th, doctor and public health expert Zeke Emmanuel said,

"Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest."

Think Disney parks can stay closed until Fall 2021?
 

Rich Brownn

Well-Known Member
what happens if a vaccine never surfaces? There has yet to be one for SARS and MERS. We as a people cant hide from this forever.
They were close, but the viruses ended before it was finished so funding dried up. On the bright side, the research into SARS gives them an advantage now.
Even more important is a treatment if infected right now. If we can lessen the symptoms then it stops being dangerous.
 

Piebald

Well-Known Member
In a New York Times Magazine article on April 10th, doctor and public health expert Zeke Emmanuel said,

"Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest."

Think Disney parks can stay closed until Fall 2021?
I cant fathom it, but most of what is going on is unfathomable.

I can certainly believe sports, leisure travel and large capacity entertainment (even movies) is likely done for the rest of this year no matter what the people behind those operations say.
 

Polynesia

Well-Known Member
What‘s more disturbing, the fact that the job exists or the creepy smile on that guy’s face?
I watched several videos on YouTube with this practice. Truly amazing. People are jammed in there like sardines. I can’t imagine how they can breathe. I suspect this practice has stopped with covid.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Correct... but their other major pillars are also impacted
- Movies
- TV ad revenue w/sports
- Consumer Products (retail both in and out of parks is hindered)

While their operating costs go down when idled, their costs don't goto zero. Things like utilities, taxes, essential services, employee costs... all these things keep going, with radically reduced revenue to offset them. So some segments will be worse than others... but they are still bleeding money... with little to no revenue to show for it. That eats into any profit they made in the first half of the year.

All four pillars of the company are impacted
- Media Networks
- Parks & Experience
- Studios
- Direct Consumer & International

Will the expenses eat into the tipping point of a loss? I don't know.. but since their net margins are usually only 15-25%... I bet they go in the red overall.
They have Disney + and news media is the only game in town right now with no sports so maybe that helps ABC ratings. The network shows were mostly done filming so they still get advertising dollars for showing them. If this lasts into the summer they may have to delay the fall season of shows. The parks are bleeding cash but at least they had almost 6 months of good results. Consumer products are probably down but the bigger question is will they ramp up the supply chain in time for the holiday rush. That’s when they make the big bucks.

It will be interesting to see if they go negative for the year. One other possible thing that may happen is they may use this pandemic as a chance to write off a lot of bad investments. Take the hit now and burry it in with the losses from the pandemic.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
I think you are forgetting that the first lockdown wasn't scheduled to last that long, which means they originally were thinking that they would be back up and running by now.

If you give 2nd graders a 50 page packet, and tell them they have 60 days to do it, they freak out.

If you give them 2 pages per day for 30 days, they easily complete all 60 pages.

Actually, 7th graders, and many 9th graders react the same way.

**************************************************

Telling the public they have to stay home for 60 days would trigger a similar reaction.

Phased closures, and phased announcements work best.

Frogs in a pot.
 
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