Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[peter11435]

What we do know is the reliance on social distancing. Every place we are used too with high densities will change. Retardants, concerts, sporting events, etc will be affected. Think of Chef de France and the amount of people packed in there. In the future, WDW will need to reduce seating by 50% or more. To retain revenue, given same input cost, WDW will need to double the prices. Same goes for park admission.

Temporarily, yes.

forever? Absolutely not.

The Spanish flu killed million but that didn’t mean social distancing and reduced capacity remained in effect forever.

 

[MisterPenguin]

What we do know is the reliance on social distancing. Every place we are used too with high densities will change. Retardants, concerts, sporting events, etc will be affected. Think of Chef de France and the amount of people packed in there. In the future, WDW will need to reduce seating by 50% or more. To retain revenue, given same input cost, WDW will need to double the prices. Same goes for park admission.

There's a separate thread for discussing opening WDW with social distancing in place and what that might be like...

Opening WDW with Social Distancing

This thread created for the narrow topic of discussing opening WDW with social distancing still in force since it keeps coming up in the Big Thread… WDW and Social Distancing People have been arguing whether it is possible that WDW can open and still maintain social distancing. Of course WDW...

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[peter11435]

9/11 was a complicated beast because it wasn't a singular event that kept tourism down through the first half of the decade. The actual 'recession' after 9/11 was very quick.. but there were multiple bumbs afterwards.

Either way... this is no 9/11 and any models extrapolating from that are DOA.

Correct. This can’t be directly compared to 9/11. I didn’t say it was similar just that the recovery time could be similar. Honestly there’s no models for what is currently going on that could even begin to be an accurate representation of what might happen

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I know you know a guy. But there’s plenty of data out there that shows that air travel didn’t reach pre 2001 levels until 2004.

Yes the logistics were back in place. But people weren’t flying in the numbers they were for a couple years.

I don’t think people in general are going to have a lasting fear here once they get past the initial imposed restrictions and economic impacts. People have short memories.

But that data can’t be attributed to one Tuesday in September because there was a “bouncing” - great term, by the way - recession right after.

I’ve said this before: wdw did NOT experience the tech crash when the rest of the country did...people held out cutbacks until after the Wand on the ball year. That effect was rolled into the post 9/11 period. Travel was significantly down prior to September. Hotels were running “low occ”

Those events were very complicated

 

[xdan0920]

So your family of teachers wants to setup a plan... start it... then want to have it changed... and then maybe changed again.. and still not be given a promise it won't change again... all while trying to maintain some sort of fixed target of what the kids should get?

All while the tools you have, the way you can grade, and what material you are allowed to cover changes with each of those 'unknown change points' in the next two months?

Distance learning is going poorly. Canceling school for the end of May and June is not going to chance that.

 

[Tjaden]

In regards to the subject of opportunity of a placement, the college and international program have been sent home. That leaves a lot of opportunities to fill positions in all areas of Epcot World Showcase. There was a member that posted the parks and resorts will open slowly however Epcot would not open. I cannot envision a World Showcase cast member substitute who does not reflect the look and able to speak the language of their respective country. ( ie Morocco, Japan, China, Norway, Italy) as examples.

I remember back when I was a CM there was a very nice lady from Laos that worked at the Japanese Kakigori Cart...I guess to the average American that SE Asia is close enough.

 

[DCBaker]

Something to watch as this virus goes on -

"About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC."

Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Nunu]

UK PM Boris Johnson, has been moved out of intensive care.

 

[Flugell]

Surely the discussion about WDW capacity will also depend, quite heavily, on foreign traffic. At present Europe, including U.K. are not allowed into the USA..
Our own government is currently advising against all non-essential global traffic indefinitely. Not sure about Brazil and Mexico both of which seem to supply lots of visitors. If your potential clientele is unable to attend then numbers will be down. Until the foreign Office guidance is changed here in the U.K. I don’t think we are even able to think about booking abroad because insurance would be invalid as the mere booking of a flight in the future is against Foreign Office advice..........supposed to be landing in Florida on 7th June and moving to Disney on 29th June till 19th July. Even if Disney is open will the travel ban be lifted by 7th June, I doubt it.

 

[Kevin_W]

As a teacher, I am very comfortable saying that there absolutely is a ramping up after school has been out of session for a long time. Especially in elementary school.

Fair enough - you would know better than I.

 

[DisneyCane]

Something to watch as this virus goes on -

"About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC."

Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

www.bloomberg.com

In other reports I have read, even though they tested positive, they didn't exhibit any symptoms. I look forward to the results of their study. It's possible that they were declared cured from a false negative tests. ALL medical tests have some level of false negative/positive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re over doing the dramatics here. Distance learning is going poorly. Canceling school for the end of May and June is not going to chance that.

I agree with you, but from a different perspective.

Our distance learning has been going great...but from a “community” outlook I realize that it’s not uniform and I don’t really want this situation to create a lasting inequality - even if my kids are benefiting. It’s been a super warm winter - it will likely be a very warm summer. I’m ok if everything is shut down. It’s not like you wont get into Harvard in 8 years if you miss a Few weeks/months.

 

[flynnibus]

Distance learning has been a fine substitute when there is no alternative, but I don't think it has been an adequate replacement for in-class learning

No one is disagreeing with that. But that's not really what's on the table.. which is why some just don't get it. It's not just a 'I'm home, or I'm at school". I encourage you to dig into the discussions going on in your own local school districts to start to understand the challenges they are facing with standards of learning, how to address special needs, disparities in environments, grading, standardized tests (such as AP tests), past work, etc. All these things take changes to accommodate... all these things mean changes to the way things are being ran.. not just day to day, but for the rest of the year. To turn around and say 'oh, nope.. do all this, but we may change it again in a few weeks' is not really practical.

The schools initially had to come up with plans on how to tread water with the uncertainty of return. For most.. that meant 'do nothing' except try to get the online connectivity in place, and deal with school lunches, etc. Then they started to look at the academic issues.. and make changes to try to fit in their new world. Doing so means changing the expectations for the kids AND teachers. That takes time to develop, roll out, and adapt to. Then if you were to try to say 'ok, nope.. we can all go back to normal'... then you have to deal with how do you reconcile all the changes you made inbetween.. and what do you do going forward? Change back to 'normal'?

Imagine just being the kid trying to say "will this be on the test?" let alone the teacher trying to understand what they are allowed to teach or not, what grades will be made from... and then say 'lets just keep evaluating this every few weeks?'

Unless you just want endless churn... it's not practical.

I really encourage people to look into their own local school board discussions if they really think this is just "cleaning the buses and buildings". They need to do some homework.

 

[Lilofan]

Also all Professional Interns were told yesterday they are losing their jobs. Which is a big deal because most PIs stay with the company in leadership roles. They don't live in housing either so they moved to Orlando and are now jobless.

One could say it's straight up layoffs instead of furloughs for this impacted group.

 

[peter11435]

One could say it's straight up layoffs instead of furloughs for this impacted group.

Kind of. Although it’s really just a fancy college program internship ending early. So aside from personal housing impact it’s really no different than when they sent home the CP’s. So if you say this is a lay-off you’d have to say the same about sending the CP’s home a few weeks ago.

Honestly I’m surprised they waited this long to do it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Surely the discussion about WDW capacity will also depend, quite heavily, on foreign traffic. At present Europe, including U.K. are not allowed into the USA..
Our own government is currently advising against all non-essential global traffic indefinitely. Not sure about Brazil and Mexico both of which seem to supply lots of visitors. If your potential clientele is unable to attend then numbers will be down. Until the foreign Office guidance is changed here in the U.K. I don’t think we are even able to think about booking abroad because insurance would be invalid as the mere booking of a flight in the future is against Foreign Office advice..........supposed to be landing in Florida on 7th June and moving to Disney on 29th June till 19th July. Even if Disney is open will the travel ban be lifted by 7th June, I doubt it.

I don’t see international travel ramping up in the US in the next 6 months. Some flights maybe, but under strict restrictions. Possibly either requiring testing before boarding the plane and/or 14 day quarantines after arrival. You can see the writing on the wall that after the dust settles on this and the blame game starts international travelers are going to get a lot of fingers pointed their way...fair or not.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Kind of. Although it’s really just a fancy college program internship ending early. So aside from personal housing impact it’s really no different than when they sent home the CP’s. So if you say this is a lay-off you’d have to say the same about sending the CP’s home a few weeks ago.

Honestly I’m surprised they waited this long to do it.

They key difference is those people do typically get placed in entry level after...they get logjammed and leave...but there is a definitive advantage to this one thing. Good resume builder. Having Disney on your resume is always a bigger advantage than actually working for Disney

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t see international travel ramping up in the US in the next 6 months. Some flights maybe, but under strict restrictions. Possibly either requiring testing before boarding the plane and/or 14 day quarantines after arrival. You can see the writing on the wall that after the dust settles on this and the blame game starts international travelers are going to get a lot of fingers pointed their way...fair or not.

Disruption of international travel would be a 15% or so hit.

I bet I can predict how long the blame game is gonna last...down to the day.

 

[Lilofan]

Kind of. Although it’s really just a fancy college program internship ending early. So aside from personal housing impact it’s really no different than when they sent home the CP’s. So if you say this is a lay-off you’d have to say the same about sending the CP’s home a few weeks ago.

Honestly I’m surprised they waited this long to do it.

Not so fast.. Professional interns I have worked with are intelligent young college graduates relocating to a city to begin a salaried internship in hopes of securing a position with the corporation. WDW is no different. Not exactly a college program internship as you describe..

 

[Nubs70]

In other reports I have read, even though they tested positive, they didn't exhibit any symptoms. I look forward to the results of their study. It's possible that they were declared cured from a false negative tests. ALL medical tests have some level of false negative/positive.

51 occurrences out of 10,423 or 0.48% or 99.52% accurate (discounting false positives). Not quite 6 sigma.