Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

This is true. But a lot has been done and will be done to mitigate this. While millions have lost jobs and are collecting unemployment those jobs could come back quickly once things return to “normal.”

Just look at WDW. Tens of thousands are being furloughed and not working. They will collect unemployment. Once WDW can reopen their jobs will come back. Maybe not all of them but that remains to be seen. It’s really too early to tell what the impact of all this will be.

I think at this point, the reality is it's going to take a while for unemployment to get back towards the levels we saw pre-pandemic. Possibly years. Wages will probably remain stagnant, which means your money will stretch less so than it did before while inflation continues. You're going to have businesses not re-open. Crowds will be down and thus less staffing will be needed across the board in ones that need visitors/guests (theme parks, zoos, water parks, restaurants, retail stores, etc.).

There are many worries about adding trillions of dollars in debt, which will be the only way to fight off what we're seeing and will continue to see. I don't know what extremes will need to happen for us to return as quickly as some think will happen, but it would have to be extreme.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is true. But a lot has been done and will be done to mitigate this. While millions have lost jobs and are collecting unemployment those jobs could come back quickly once things return to “normal.”

Just look at WDW. Tens of thousands are being furloughed and not working. They will collect unemployment. Once WDW can reopen their jobs will come back. Maybe not all of them but that remains to be seen. It’s really too early to tell what the impact of all this will be.

I saw a report this morning that estimates up to 50% of jobs lost could return immediately when restrictions are lifted. It could take months or years for the rest but that’s in line with some past recessions. There’s no official government reporting on laid off vs furloughed.

 

[peter11435]

I saw a report this morning that estimates up to 50% of jobs lost could return immediately when restrictions are lifted. It could take months or years for the rest but that’s in line with some past recessions. There’s no official government reporting on laid off vs furloughed.

And the interesting thing is that it’s self fulfilling. The more jobs that return immediately, will in turn lead to more jobs returning.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I think reasonable minds can differ on this, but I'd much rather kids returned even if only for 2-3 weeks. I don't think there is much "ramping back up" as another poster said - this is what the schools/teachers do. Even at the beginning of the school year there are only 2-3 days to get into the full swing of things and that is after a summer break where there hasn't been distance learning going on.

Distance learning has been a fine substitute when there is no alternative, but I don't think it has been an adequate replacement for in-class learning. I agree with @xdan0920 that any classroom time is better than no classroom time.

As a teacher, I am very comfortable saying that there absolutely is a ramping up after school has been out of session for a long time. Especially in elementary school.

 

[GoofGoof]

And the interesting thing is that it’s self fulfilling. The more jobs that return immediately, will in turn lead to more jobs returning.

The other thing that’s hard to estimate is how the small business bailouts will work. In past recessions outside of a handful of industries companies were left to fend for themselves. If the government can successfully help small businesses it could make the comeback even faster. If not job growth will take a while.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Great discussions here today - again. Since the snitting stopped this thread has really “turned around”

I would argue that 2 years was in some ways comparable to getting made to normal after 9/11.

Although at this point we don’t know if it will really take that long, or if it will be even longer.

A valid comparison but limited.

I used to know a guy who analyzed revenue for a certain theme park operator in 2002. He was a jerk.

But the experience sheds light. The travel disruption/fear of incident gave way for all intents and purposes in early 2002 and things were back on line in travel with some modifications. If we recall - the major change was airport screening and silly bag checks at disneyparks. That’s nothing.

What caused that period to linger was the economic recession after. Really crushed them and they went with a completely different way to boost themselves in the housing crash.

This one has the potential to wreck Disney far worse than both. Just my observation.

After 9/11, there was not record numbers of millions of people of all income levels collecting unemployment, residents not able long term to make rent/mortgage payments, peoples paper net worth in stock markets free falling like a guest riding Blizzard Beach Summit Plummet. This will make many re-think discretionary spending ( ie vacations ) . Orlando is nothing without the tourism market.

Very true and we’ve gutted the “middle class” even more - as well as the “lower upper class” - in the bigger recession since and that looms on this one.

Disney parks can’t open if they can’t pull middle class. They won’t profit as a boutique operation.

 

[peter11435]

I think at this point, the reality is it's going to take a while for unemployment to get back towards the levels we saw pre-pandemic. Possibly years. Wages will probably remain stagnant, which means your money will stretch less so than it did before while inflation continues. You're going to have businesses not re-open. Crowds will be down and thus less staffing will be needed across the board in ones that need visitors/guests (theme parks, zoos, water parks, restaurants, retail stores, etc.).

There are many worries about adding trillions of dollars in debt, which will be the only way to fight off what we're seeing and will continue to see. I don't know what extremes will need to happen for us to return as quickly as some think will happen, but it would have to be extreme.

I think at this point, the reality is that everything in your post is a guess. We really have no idea how long this will go on or what exactly will transpire when it’s over. Every report every analyst speculation is just a guess. We really don’t know what the future holds and their is justification for extremes in a number of directions.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This would be terrible PR for Disney. Perhaps that info is not being released to the media.

I am sure Disney does not volunteer the info, but with all the leakers and whistle-blowers these days Disney couldn't keep that kind of information quiet I think.

 

[natatomic]

People get sick... viral infections happen all the time.. Doctor's don't pursue details because treatment is the same.. that doesn't mean it was likely covid-19...

Scientists... not Karen... have the ability to trace the lineage of the viruses we sample.

I never said it was! Someone just asked if we were sick earlier in the year, and I simply answered their question. We weren’t sick in January, but we were in December, so that’s all I said. I wasn’t speculating it was Covid, though I know many people are wondering if the virus was here earlier than January. It could have been - far smarter people than me are admitting that’s a possibility. Was what my mom and husband had in December covid-19? Not very likely, I know that. Not impossible, though, either. But I wouldn’t put money on it. Probably just typical winter crud. I’m not a Karen.

 

[peter11435]

But the experience sheds light. The travel disruption/fear of incident gave way for all intents and purposes in early 2002 and things were back on line in travel with some modifications.

I would disagree with this. My recollection is that it was well into 2004 before tourism air travel and international travel returned to anything resembling normal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think at this point, the reality is it's going to take a while for unemployment to get back towards the levels we saw pre-pandemic. Possibly years. Wages will probably remain stagnant, which means your money will stretch less so than it did before while inflation continues. You're going to have businesses not re-open. Crowds will be down and thus less staffing will be needed across the board in ones that need visitors/guests (theme parks, zoos, water parks, restaurants, retail stores, etc.).

There are many worries about adding trillions of dollars in debt, which will be the only way to fight off what we're seeing and will continue to see. I don't know what extremes will need to happen for us to return as quickly as some think will happen, but it would have to be extreme.

Wages have actually been more stagnant in this “last boom” than ever before...because they don’t factor in the incredible rise in the cost of goods/services.

Doesn’t matter if you get a 5% “raise” when the price of everything goes up 8%...which is exactly how this bubble has been playing. Housing hasn’t gone through as steep of a bubble...everything else has.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would disagree with this. My recollection is that it was well into 2004 before tourism air travel and international travel returned to anything resembling normal.

You can disagree with it...but i knew a guy

The logistics of travel other than security were back in place rather quickly. Life changed...slightly.

Now people from the mid Atlantic seaboard were overly resistant to resume - and that’s wdw’s Big cash block. That is true...but nothing stopping them than recession.

This is a silent threat that could alter the whole package. Lot worse that Mickey cops who dropped out of mall security academy shining a flashlight in your F@nny pack.

 

[Nubs70]

I think at this point, the reality is that everything in your post is a guess. We really have no idea how long this will go on or what exactly will transpire when it’s over. Every report every analyst speculation is just a guess. We really don’t know what the future holds and their is justification for extremes in a number of directions.

What we do know is the reliance on social distancing. Every place we are used too with high densities will change. Retardants, concerts, sporting events, etc will be affected. Think of Chef de France and the amount of people packed in there. In the future, WDW will need to reduce seating by 50% or more. To retain revenue, given same input cost, WDW will need to double the prices. Same goes for park admission.

 

[Lilofan]

This is true. But a lot has been done and will be done to mitigate this. While millions have lost jobs and are collecting unemployment those jobs could come back quickly once things return to “normal.”

Just look at WDW. Tens of thousands are being furloughed and not working. They will collect unemployment. Once WDW can reopen their jobs will come back. Maybe not all of them but that remains to be seen. And those people will on average be armed with more money than they would have had if the parks had never closed. It’s really too early to tell what the impact of all this will be.

In regards to many I know if their salary is X, then their expenses are Y, not much room for savings because in their minds savings is not on their minds. It is their personal lifestyle they choose to live. Some are furloughed and some are actually laid off. Out comes panic mode because what they earn in unemployment is not enough to cover expenses Y. Some are offloading their personal items to include cars, pulling kids out of private schools and not to mention considering foreclosing on homes including short sales. So they will not be armed with money to spend in the parks in the future. Some companies may not survive, and the ones that do will become leaner and meaner when it comes to staffing.

 

[flynnibus]

I would disagree with this. My recollection is that it was well into 2004 before tourism air travel and international travel returned to anything resembling normal.

9/11 was a complicated beast because it wasn't a singular event that kept tourism down through the first half of the decade. The actual 'recession' after 9/11 was very quick.. but there were multiple bumbs afterwards.

Either way... this is no 9/11 and any models extrapolating from that are DOA.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I chimed in because the 'what if...' is a FUD tactic floating around that. Just look at the other reply to your post... like clockwork she chimed in taking it to doubting the science because of ancedotes about people getting sick... instead of actually following the actual science tracking the spread and strains involved.

We can’t be responsible for that one kid that eats glue continuing to do it after Everyone tells them not to...

 

[John park hopper]

The American mind set if I have a nickel I'll spend a dime. SNL Cone Heads we laughed at the Cone Heads mass consumption may be we were laughing at ourselves and didn't know it

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What we do know is the reliance on social distancing. Every place we are used too with high densities will change. Retardants, concerts, sporting events, etc will be affected. Think of Chef de France and the amount of people packed in there. In the future, WDW will need to reduce seating by 50% or more. To retain revenue, given same input cost, WDW will need to double the prices. Same goes for park admission.

Retardants won’t change...Kevlar and asbestos will still work...

You just have to wash them in Purell now

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

People were afraid to fly after 9/11 because they knew the passengers on those flights had no chance to survive and everybody saw the horrific video of the planes crashing into the WTC. It also made people feel like the terrorists were brilliant in their planning (which the attack was) so they were likely planning other attacks on high profile targets like WDW or Las Vegas.

In my opinion, this situation is different because, although you have a higher likelihood of being infected with the virus than of being involved in a terrorist attack, if you are infected you have a pretty high chance to survive (even if you are old or have an underlying condition). If a terrorist hijacks your plane to use it as a missile, you have no chance to survive. If a terrorist bombed the Magic Kingdom you'd be very likely to be killed or seriously injured.

I certainly agree. A faceless virus is easier to dismiss as a threat than a terrorist attack, which is why I think a lot of guests will come back to the parks soon after opening. I mean, even after the virus hit the states, people were still packing into the parks. I think we’ll see a lot of people exercising caution but not completely staying away.

 

[peter11435]

You can disagree with it...but i knew a guy

The logistics of travel other than security were back in place rather quickly. Life changed...slightly.

Now people from the mid Atlantic seaboard were overly resistant to resume - and that’s wdw’s Big cash block. That is true...but nothing stopping them than recession.

This is a silent threat that could alter the whole package. Lot worse that Mickey cops who dropped out of mall security academy shining a flashlight in your ***** pack.

I know you know a guy. But there’s plenty of data out there that shows that air travel didn’t reach pre 2001 levels until 2004.

Yes the logistics were back in place. But people weren’t flying in the numbers they were for a couple years.

I don’t think people in general are going to have a lasting fear here once they get past the initial imposed restrictions and economic impacts. People have short memories.