Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Let’s not forget that SARS was a bit different. Had a very low transmissibility. Is one of the reasons it could be contained a lot faster. This is a different animal.

Agreed. Different animal, but at the time it really did vanish unexpectedly. Not saying that’s likely to happen but we still don’t know what really happened to SARS. All research stopped when it died off. An obvious mistake now but there’s no money in researching dead viruses.

 

[DisneyCane]

Dr. Fauci said tonight that 25-50% having had it is a guess, and that even those on the Task Force disagree about approximately how many fall into that category.

That's why the next really important development will be wide availability of the serology test to find out.

 

[DisneyCane]

Although unlikely it’s also possible this thing just goes away on its own. SARS didn’t infect nearly as many people, but when it died off there was never a relapse of it. It basically just disappeared and we still aren’t 100% sure why. It is possible that once the initial wave of this coronavirus dies down that there’s not a series of future waves. Maybe just some isolated outbreaks that are contained.

Let us hope and pray (for those who pray) that happens.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

I will only say this. Civilization can not wait to return to some state of normal for all these things until there is a vaccine. That is, at absolute minimum, a year away. That assumes the one that went to phase 1 trial actually works. It could be two years.

I will refrain from speculating but it may be discovered that a lot more people have already been infected than we know of. It will take the serology test to know.

If the US governments (states included) try to keep extreme social distancing in effect for over a year there will be an uprising. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for the uprising to become violent. A large percentage of people will not stand for it because the federal government can't pass another six or eight $2 trillion packages to keep people at bay.

The economy must reopen in a reasonable amount of time. The health authorities will have to do the best that they can at containment using now widely available testing. Some level of continued deaths will have to be accepted because complete containment is not possible.

This is how I feel like it is likely to play out as well. I'm not one of those "won't somebody think of the economy!" people but if cases do peak in the next 2 - 4 weeks and then start to continuously and consistently decline, there is going to be a lot of pressure to get things up and moving again.

 

[hopemax]

I 100 percent agree. The question becomes what amount of deaths can we accept. The key is going to be getting this to a steady state And not be in an exponential growth phase.

Yep. Steady state means that people can get their haircuts, their nails done, their construction and landscaping needs, clothes shopping and the rest of the normal day to day stuff where you interact with a bunch of individual or small groups of people. Maybe with notes, so that if a positive test pops up, the contact tracing and testing can be expedited.

Large gatherings like concerts, sporting events, and Disney Theme Parks are going to have to wait though, IMO. Too much mixing from people from multiple communities. And too many contacts to trace.

I don't know where things like weddings, funerals and church services fall. I tend to think they should still be minimized, with as few people as possible. 25 person wedding, maybe, but not 200. Ceremony and cake, not large receptions with buffets and dancing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People can postulate about “acceptable deaths” all they want...but this is a Disney forum and that type of talk is incompatible to Disney.

You think bald bob is going to go all Steve Jobs at the annual meeting and drop lines like “we only had 6 minor outbreaks of covid at Disney parks this year...so that’s good...”

This is my disconnect. Actually one of a few.

And those wishing for the “economy back” is kinda irrelevant now...this was a bubble economy that ended on 2/25. They’re always bubble economies now - hence why recessions or worse are guaranteed. Someone’s said it when the slide started here eloquently: all the money is made in speculation. Doesn’t matter if it’s in positive or negative speculation - there’s money to be made in both.

The minute this flashed in the US and Western Europe...the game on the economy was over.

Here’s to the next bubble!

 

[Horizons '83]

People can postulate about “acceptable deaths” all they want...but this is a Disney forum and that type of talk is incompatible to Disney.

You think bald bob is going to go all Steve Jobs at the annual meeting and drop lines like “we only had 6 minor outbreaks of covid at Disney parks this year...so that’s good...”

This is my disconnect. Actually one of a few.

And those wishing for the “economy” back is kinda irrelevant now...this was a bubble economy that ended on 2/25. They’re always bubble economies now - hence why recessions or worse are guaranteed. Someone’s said it when the slide started here eloquently: all the money is made in speculation. Doesn’t matter if it’s in positive or negative speculation - there’s money to be made in both.

The minute this flashed in the US and Western Europe...the game on the economy was over.

Here’s to the next bubble!

Your emojis are getting better with time my friend ....

 

[Nunu]

From my country

Entering week 3 of nationwide mandated curfew (4pm-4am).

Last night, the President announced new restrictions for Holy Week:

- Gatherings and home visits will not be allowed.
- No alcohol will be sold anywhere.
- People won't be able to leave their home counties.
- Beaches, lakes, rivers and public parks will be closed.

Since my last report (2 or 3 days ago), active cases have more than doubled. We are now at 52.
3 deceased and 15 recovered.

Fortunately, these numbers are still low. Hopefully these measures will help keep the trajectory shallow.

 

[Lilofan]

In black and white... stop thinking about a certain date... this will be over when its over.

Americans are underestimating how long coronavirus disruptions will last, health experts say

Public health experts are increasingly worried that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country.

www.statnews.com

It's tough for a lot of of folks to not know an end date/time. We have lived through intense hurricanes hiding in our walk in closet like the roof and parts of the house just peeling away in an intense hurricane howling scream that seemed like it would never end. But at least we knew there would be an end time/date when it would pass. Then we again would rebuild and restart our lives. But this unknown is really challenging to cope with.

 

[DisneyCane]

Dr. Fauci said tonight that 25-50% having had it is a guess, and that even those on the Task Force disagree about approximately how many fall into that category.

Just to clarify. I went back and carefully listened to his answer. He wasn't saying 25-50% of the population has had it. He was saying that 25-50% of cases are asymptomatic. Basically, there are 1.5 to 2 times the cases vs. confirmed cases.

He also said it was an estimate and that they don't have any scientific data yet but will once the antibody test rolls out.

 

[Polynesia]

It looks like the curve is starting to flatten in several states according to the website in my signature.

I’m fairly new here. How do I find the website in your signature? Thank you in advance

 

[Polynesia]

It looks like the curve is starting to flatten in several states according to the website in my signature.

Sorry. Found it. It does appear that several states have their peaks moved up. Florida used to be May 3.

 

[Touchdown]

To all the Americans on this board The Washington Model has been updated in the last 24 hours and is now incorporating more data from Europe. It has adjusted deaths and hospital use down and predicts the peak in 9 days.

The model predicts no hospitalizations for Covid in California by mid May, and in Florida (because the stay at home order came so late and this model assumes social distancing ending after this month) by the first week in June. I suspect cases going down to near undetectable levels is when Disney opens again.

In regards to testing, yes we are under testing as a nation, however, the criteria for testing has been stable for sometime which means we can infer that it is representative of the entire population and thus the changes in results from day to day are also representative. New cases starting to go down in NY and Washington are very good news. Here’s hoping the model is right.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m glad we’re having the same “who cares about a bunch of old people dying“ discussion. They would have died anyway. Blah, blah, blah. Everyone is entitled to an opinion no matter how cold and callous but it’s all been said before so why keep repeating it over and over and over...unless the goal is to get a rise out of people.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Do you care at all that because the Federal Government has spent approximately 3 trillion in the first 3 Covid19 bills that there will be less money to provide needed service like Home Energy Assistance.

That’s usually the argument.. go to extremes and try to prove a point. Not working.

 

[durangojim]

To all the Americans on this board The Washington Model has been updated in the last 24 hours and is now incorporating more data from Europe. It has adjusted deaths and hospital use down and predicts the peak in 9 days.

The model predicts no hospitalizations for Covid in California by mid May, and in Florida (because the stay at home order came so late and this model assumes social distancing ending after this month) by the first week in June. I suspect cases going down to near undetectable levels is when Disney opens again.

In regards to testing, yes we are under testing as a nation, however, the criteria for testing has been stable for sometime which means we can infer that it is representative of the entire population and thus the changes in results from day to day are also representative. New cases starting to go down in NY and Washington are very good news. Here’s hoping the model is right.

This is great news. the concern is obviously a second peak. hopefully by June we'll have widespread antibody testing which will give piece of mind to a good portion of the population.

 

[DCBaker]

Seaworld CEO resigns -

SeaWorld CEO Serge Rivera resigns in fourth leadership turnover in six years

SeaWorld CEO Serge Rivera, who led the company for just five months, has resigned, citing a disagreement with his board’s decision-making as the reason for his departure. His departure comes …

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[durangojim]

I’m glad we’re having the same “who cares about a bunch of old people dying“ discussion. They would have died anyway. Blah, blah, blah. Everyone is entitled to an opinion no matter how cold and callous but it’s all been said before so why keep repeating it over and over and over...unless the goal is to get a rise out of people.

I think the role of the internet is to act as an echo chamber

 

[Disstevefan1]

Seaworld CEO resigns -

SeaWorld CEO Serge Rivera resigns in fourth leadership turnover in six years

SeaWorld CEO Serge Rivera, who led the company for just five months, has resigned, citing a disagreement with his board’s decision-making as the reason for his departure. His departure comes …

www.orlandosentinel.com

Blackfish almost killed SeaWorld. I really hope SeaWorld survives Corona......

 

[Epcotfan21]

To all the Americans on this board The Washington Model has been updated in the last 24 hours and is now incorporating more data from Europe. It has adjusted deaths and hospital use down and predicts the peak in 9 days.

The model predicts no hospitalizations for Covid in California by mid May, and in Florida (because the stay at home order came so late and this model assumes social distancing ending after this month) by the first week in June. I suspect cases going down to near undetectable levels is when Disney opens again.

In regards to testing, yes we are under testing as a nation, however, the criteria for testing has been stable for sometime which means we can infer that it is representative of the entire population and thus the changes in results from day to day are also representative. New cases starting to go down in NY and Washington are very good news. Here’s hoping the model is right.

Finally. Alot of the projected numbers from the site didn't align with what was being reported on the ground.

Hopefully the downward trend continues and we can begin to open things back up in May, with the understanding that social distancing measures should be strongly encouraged and that individuals who are high risk, should continue to take caution.