Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Angel Ariel]

I agree the scouts shouldn’t have been on a hike. But that’s a separate problem. People will never 100% follow rules.

My point is those scouts hiking are not going to make this last longer... in general we’ve closed down the country, that will make a difference.

Orders being put out and people following those orders are different things. I'm sorry, but I live in the DC/VA/MD metro area. Things are not closed down here. Many people are flat out not following the orders. I've posted multiple events here over the last few weeks:

• Masses of people still going to the cherry blossoms at the tidal basin (and not observing social distancing) - resulting in the metro stations closest to the tidal basins being closed first.
  • When that wasn't enough, the National Parks Service had to get snowplows parked to block the exit ramps from the highways and close all of the parking lots in the area.
  • When that didn't work, they completely shut down the tidal basin and national mall (between the Lincoln and Washington monuments) to all people.
• County Parks have been closed since before the stay at home order was issued last Monday. Initially it was just a closure of playgrounds and structures (like restrooms).
  • But that wasn't enough, as people en masse were still driving to the parks and walking the trails in such numbers that social distancing was impossible.
  • So they closed the parking lots and have said you can't drive to the county parks to walk trails anymore. The trails are still open, and they've said you need to use the trails you can walk to.
  • People are still, even TODAY, driving to the big local parks en masse - even with the parking lots blocked. They are parking on the shoulder of the nearest major roads and walking in - completely ignoring the orders given by the county government.
• An open-air seafood market/wharf area- again, just *yesterday* - had to be shut down entirely because there were so many people swarming the place and ignoring the social distancing required by DC's order, that the DC government shut the market down.

This is not even talking about the number of times kids have been playing on playgrounds - despite playgrounds having been closed for 2+ weeks now, etc. There are so many incidents like this happening daily. People just aren't listening.

Just like the group hiking today - all of these people think "well, it's just us, we won't affect the curve." But there's SO many people thinking that way and acting that way, that yes - it will. That's the problem with something that increases at exponential rates. It doesn't take many people to cause an impact.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree the scouts shouldn’t have been on a hike. But that’s a separate problem. People will never 100% follow rules.

My point is those scouts hiking are not going to make this last longer... in general we’ve closed down the country, that will make a difference.

In theory this is probably true...if they are part of a very small group of outliers. If a bunch of people think their one “bending of the rules“ is no big deal then it starts to add up. IMHO better to just follow the rules than assume everyone else will so you can get away with not following.

 

[DCBaker]

Interpret the data as you wish. There was a 37% drop in new cases from yesterday to today.

As far as the IHME model. Besides the fact that it has so far overestimated (by a lot) the hospital bed demand it isn't accounting for hospitals expanding ICU capacity by transforming other facilities (such as operating recovery rooms) into ICU beds to prepare for a surge.

I do hope this is what's happening! There has been some data lag in the past, especially on the weekends - here's one instance for the numbers today.

 

[tallica]

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York has become the first tiger to test positive for the coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I do hope this is what's happening! There has been some data lag in the past, especially on the weekends - here's one instance for the numbers today.

Someone posted earlier that it seemed like weekends have a lag. Will be interested to see if they catch up tomorrow.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I'd be very cautious about reading too much into one day's numbers. There's bound to be fluctuation from day-to-day based on a whole bunch of factors. If you see consistent dropping over the course of a week or so, that's a good sign, but the only place that seems to be happening so far is Washington state, which had the first real U.S. outbreak.



We're actually having the opposite problem: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

Maybe the real problem is you're trusting crappy news sources.

I’m not trusting anyone. That’s what I was saying. You don’t know who or what to believe anymore. Most things have a political bias twist to it as well (both sides) and its sickening

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not trusting anyone. That’s what I was saying. You don’t know who or what to believe anymore. Most things have a political bias twist to it as well (both sides) and its sickening

...I wouldn’t...

There was a claim of “bias” a few weeks back of something that is about to claim over 10,000 American lives in 35 days....

The Vietnam war claimed 59,000 in about 5,000 days.

This is a crisis in fact. Period.

 

[Rimmit]

Interpret the data as you wish. There was a 37% drop in new cases from yesterday to today.

As far as the IHME model. Besides the fact that it has so far overestimated (by a lot) the hospital bed demand it isn't accounting for hospitals expanding ICU capacity by transforming other facilities (such as operating recovery rooms) into ICU beds to prepare for a surge.

As someone that works in the medical field, I will have to say that I would take any number reported over the weekend with a grain of salt. Labs staff less on weekends and there is always a lag in labs performed on weekends as they can’t run them as fast.

Even the graph you showed in a couple posts back shows a leveling off prior to this one and what day of the week was that around... the weekend. KY, the state I live in last weekend had a leveling off for the weekend only to ramp back up once the weekday hit. Our governor even mentioned that in his daily press conference to take weekend numbers with a grain of salt as the labs just don’t run as many tests and to not to get our hopes up that we are making progress just yet. We went from 98 to 34 cases today in KY, but most of that was attributed to the weekend. Not an actual trend per our governor.

I truly hope it’s leveling off.... but I’d wait a couple more data points before being able to call it a true trend, but it is a possibility, and one that I hope actually happening.

 

[5thGenTexan]

In black and white... stop thinking about a certain date... this will be over when its over.

Americans are underestimating how long coronavirus disruptions will last, health experts say

Public health experts are increasingly worried that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country.

www.statnews.com

 

[Piebald]

In black and white... stop thinking about a certain date... this will be over when its over.

Americans are underestimating how long coronavirus disruptions will last, health experts say

Public health experts are increasingly worried that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country.

www.statnews.com

I have a feeling all sports, leisure travel and anything like a concert/show/theater is kaput until a vaccine is fully underway. Sadly this includes Disney. I think the reality becomes more grim as weeks go by. People really seem to think in a few weeks we slowly go back to normal. I just dont see it. I hope I'm terribly wrong.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have a feeling all sports, leisure travel and anything like a concert/show/theater is kaput until a vaccine is fully underway. Sadly this includes Disney. I think the reality becomes more grim as weeks go by. People really seem to think in a few weeks we slowly go back to normal. I just dont see it. I hope I'm terribly wrong.

I hope you’re wrong too...cause it will mean I’m wrong.

I think Disney has way bigger issues than any of us know.

 

[5thGenTexan]

I have a feeling all sports, leisure travel and anything like a concert/show/theater is kaput until a vaccine is fully underway. Sadly this includes Disney. I think the reality becomes more grim as weeks go by. People really seem to think in a few weeks we slowly go back to normal. I just dont see it. I hope I'm terribly wrong.

Its time for a return to the drive-in movie. Bring your own stuff in a cooler and dont get close to anyone else.

 

[DisneyCane]

I have a feeling all sports, leisure travel and anything like a concert/show/theater is kaput until a vaccine is fully underway. Sadly this includes Disney. I think the reality becomes more grim as weeks go by. People really seem to think in a few weeks we slowly go back to normal. I just dont see it. I hope I'm terribly wrong.

I will only say this. Civilization can not wait to return to some state of normal for all these things until there is a vaccine. That is, at absolute minimum, a year away. That assumes the one that went to phase 1 trial actually works. It could be two years.

I will refrain from speculating but it may be discovered that a lot more people have already been infected than we know of. It will take the serology test to know.

If the US governments (states included) try to keep extreme social distancing in effect for over a year there will be an uprising. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for the uprising to become violent. A large percentage of people will not stand for it because the federal government can't pass another six or eight $2 trillion packages to keep people at bay.

The economy must reopen in a reasonable amount of time. The health authorities will have to do the best that they can at containment using now widely available testing. Some level of continued deaths will have to be accepted because complete containment is not possible.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I will only say this. Civilization can not wait to return to some state of normal for all these things until there is a vaccine. That is, at absolute minimum, a year away. That assumes the one that went to phase 1 trial actually works. It could be two years.

I will refrain from speculating but it may be discovered that a lot more people have already been infected than we know of. It will take the serology test to know.

If the US governments (states included) try to keep extreme social distancing in effect for over a year there will be an uprising. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for the uprising to become violent. A large percentage of people will not stand for it because the federal government can't pass another six or eight $2 trillion packages to keep people at bay.

The economy must reopen in a reasonable amount of time. The health authorities will have to do the best that they can at containment using now widely available testing. Some level of continued deaths will have to be accepted because complete containment is not possible.

Dr. Fauci said tonight that 25-50% having had it is a guess, and that even those on the Task Force disagree about approximately how many fall into that category.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Its time for a return to the drive-in movie. Bring your own stuff in a cooler and dont get close to anyone else.

Wife and I still go to the drive in about 3-5 times a year. Still great. Still fun. Also still prefer it over a regular theatre.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Wife and I still go to the drive in about 3-5 times a year. Still great. Still fun. Also still prefer it over a regular theatre.

We have one about 1 1/2 hours from us...wish it was closer because we'd go way more often, but we do go on occasion - so much fun! And one of the activities we used to help get our youngest ready for his first Disney trip.

 

[GoofGoof]

I will only say this. Civilization can not wait to return to some state of normal for all these things until there is a vaccine. That is, at absolute minimum, a year away. That assumes the one that went to phase 1 trial actually works. It could be two years.

I will refrain from speculating but it may be discovered that a lot more people have already been infected than we know of. It will take the serology test to know.

If the US governments (states included) try to keep extreme social distancing in effect for over a year there will be an uprising. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for the uprising to become violent. A large percentage of people will not stand for it because the federal government can't pass another six or eight $2 trillion packages to keep people at bay.

The economy must reopen in a reasonable amount of time. The health authorities will have to do the best that they can at containment using now widely available testing. Some level of continued deaths will have to be accepted because complete containment is not possible.

Although unlikely it’s also possible this thing just goes away on its own. SARS didn’t infect nearly as many people, but when it died off there was never a relapse of it. It basically just disappeared and we still aren’t 100% sure why. It is possible that once the initial wave of this coronavirus dies down that there’s not a series of future waves. Maybe just some isolated outbreaks that are contained.

 

[Rimmit]

Some level of continued deaths will have to be accepted because complete containment is not possible.

I 100 percent agree. The question becomes what amount of deaths can we accept. The key is going to be getting this to a steady state And not be in an exponential growth phase. I used to think there would be a roundabout number like 200 deaths/day or something like that, but as this has progressed I believe it will more likely be a steady number (whatever that ends up being whether it be 100 or 1000) AND when we are not overwhelming healthcare systems as if a bomb just blew up in a city. The question is how do we get there?

But if we can achieve a steady state of deaths spread over all 50 states it will be a manageable situation. Even if we had 1000 deaths per day spread out over 50 states we are looking at Only 20 deaths per day per state (not ideal but better than 500 in one state) and keeping our health system intact. I have no idea how we can get there though.

 

[GoofGoof]

I 100 percent agree. The question becomes what amount of deaths can we accept. The key is going to be getting this to a steady state And not be in an exponential growth phase. I used to think there would be a roundabout number like 200 deaths/day or something like that, but as this has progressed I believe it will more likely be a steady number (whatever that ends up being whether it be 100 or 1000) AND when we are not overwhelming healthcare systems as if a bomb just blew up in a city. The question is how do we get there?

But if we can achieve a steady state of deaths spread over all 50 states it will be a manageable situation. Even if we had 1000 deaths per day spread out over 50 states we are looking at Only 20 deaths per day per state (not ideal but better than 500 in one state) and keeping our health system intact. I have no idea how we can get there though.

It may just be wishful thinking but maybe some combination of the various drugs and treatments currently being tested can also help mitigate the risks. If people get less sick the hospitals aren‘t overrun and people come out of their homes. We’ve learned a lot in a few months and the social distancing has a month or 2 to go at least. A lot can be discovered by then hopefully.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Although unlikely it’s also possible this thing just goes away on its own. SARS didn’t infect nearly as many people, but when it died off there was never a relapse of it. It basically just disappeared and we still aren’t 100% sure why. It is possible that once the initial wave of this coronavirus dies down that there’s not a series of future waves. Maybe just some isolated outbreaks that are contained.

Let’s not forget that SARS was a bit different. Had a very low transmissibility. Is one of the reasons it could be contained a lot faster. This is a different animal.