Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Sorry to hear! Such a bummer. It's a huge impact for everyone, especially tourism. Vancouver had 1.1 million cruise passengers last year, with even more expected this year. And I mean, our season is generally April-October.

Every time I go to Vancouver something bad happens. Last time - I was at Fairmont Pacific Rim. Cory Montieth died there - a couple of floors above me (while I was staying there - going back 5,6 years). Scene was crazy. I refuse to eat at Hy's anymore because I'm convinced I'm going to choke on a piece of my steak. Beautiful city though. It just doesn't like me for some reason.

 

[21stamps]

Ohio has officially pushed all public and private schools to a May 1st classroom return. DeWine is stressing that at home learning must continue.

He’s also acknowledging that not all schools/districts have the same resources, and therefore have kids who are falling severely behind.. he will not give a mandatory statewide extension of the year, but some areas could choose to do that.

 

[DisneyCane]

You haven't been paying attention then. The Champions League game on February 19th between Valencia (Spain) and Atalanta (Bergamo, Italy) that was played in Milan is what is being looked at as a primary Super Spreader event and why Spain & Italy are the mess that they are. Epidemiologists are planning on, once this is done, conducting serology tests on the people who attended that game and see how many ended up becoming infected.

Atalanta vs. Valencia Linked to Accelerating Coronavirus Outbreak

The Champions League match at Milan's San Siro has been dubbed 'a biological bomb.'

www.si.com

Seems to be more likely to be related to the fact that all those people traveled from Spain and spent time in Italy than actually attending the game. What I meant was that, including after reading this article I haven't seen any expert analysis that shows there was an outbreak that was spread inside of a sports stadium due to the "large gathering" component.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Every time I go to Vancouver something bad happens. Last time - I was at Fairmont Pacific Rim. Cory Montieth died there - a couple of floors above me (while I was staying there - going back 5,6 years). Scene was crazy. I refuse to eat at Hy's anymore because I'm convinced I'm going to choke on a piece of my steak. Beautiful city though. It just doesn't like me for some reason.

One day when you make it back, I'll make sure it likes you!

Weird enough, I met Cory at a restaurant I worked at in Vancouver back in the day, I think that was the same year he passed on.

 

[Polynesia]

Each state is going through its own thing. The University of Washington has put together these projections for each state: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can see that they estimate New York will have its peak mid-April, but Florida not until early May and Virginia not until mid-May.

Thank you for the link. Just a day ago Florida’s peak was middle of May. It looks like they’re adjusting it as the numbers are graphed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You can put you own interpretations on the stats since we lack so much data, but I find this graph somewhat encouraging. The talk for weeks has been "flattening the curve", and this indeed looks like it is flattening. The worst-case of Italy has been flat in new cases for 5-6 days now. and all this in spite of increased world-wide testing, so the flattening might actually be a slight decrease.

View attachment 459510

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you notice, Mar 8, Mar 10, Mar 15, Mar 21, as well as Mar 28 all were days with a decrease in new cases. They didn't portend a flattening of the curve.

 

[Kevin_W]

It isn't.

UPDATE: Northam issues statewide stay-at-home order effective through June 10

Update: Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam issued a statewide stay-at-home order that's effective immediately and will remain in place until June 10, unless the governor rescinds it.

www.richmond.com

Interesting. With data trickling in day-by-day, I don't know how you can make an order projecting over 2 months into the future. I suppose you could always rescind an order, but most governments/businesses are going on the theory that it's easier to announce extensions of closures than the opposite.

 

[21stamps]

I know I can look it up, but does anyone know if the private schools are going to be receiving some of the government funding from the bill?

If the states are forcing private school to close, then shouldn’t public funds be available to to them as well?

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Please let's not criticize the source. But it is accurate. They are all doing this together. Dates may be different. But the message is the same:

Coronavirus and cruises: Companies extend operation suspensions during outbreak

Carnival Cruise Line, MSC Cruises, Disney Cruise Line, Cunard Line and Seabourn Cruise Line are making changes.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Kevin_W]

Sorry to be the bear of bad news, but if you notic, Mar 8, Mar 10, Mar 15, Mar 21, as well as Mar 28 all were days with a decrease in new cases. They didn't portend a flattening of the curve.

Sure, but overall that is not an exponentially increasing graph. Perhaps I'm just working too hard to see the positive, though.

 

[flynnibus]

That is very irresponsible. There is absolutely no need to order something like that at this point. All Governors should make their orders through the end of April and then reevaluate when it gets closer. June 10th makes the lockdown (or whatever you want to call it) longer than the lockdown of Wuhan. The cynic in me would think that he picked that date because Trump said that he thinks things could really get going again by June 1st.

OR... it's because people (like many here) aren't respecting the magnititude of the situation and needed a gut check.

They can always lift the order easily... The point of a date far out is to send a message IMO.

This is after we have case after case of churches, gatherings, beach issues, etc.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

The point of a date far out is to send a message IMO

Yes it is.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You would have to shut down the world then. Disney, Vegas, movie theaters... etc. who is going to pay all those people’s bills?

Not to discuss the wisdom of this, or whether 'it works', or how it actually gets done, but...

The answer to your question is that governments borrow the money (in most cases, they're just making more money, but with the intention of unmaking it later through various means) and give it to the people in various ways (unemployment, business loans) to keep the economy going.

If it was just you yourself who couldn't work for four months and you had access to a loan to get you thru it, you'd get the loan so you don't lose your house.

That's what nations are doing.

A further discussion of such a policy isn't for this thread, tho. But, in the U.S. for example, that's what the latest $2T stimulus bill is for.

 

[GoofGoof]

Interesting. With data trickling in day-by-day, I don't know how you can make an order projecting over 2 months into the future. I suppose you could always rescind an order, but most governments/businesses are going on the theory that it's easier to announce extensions of closures than the opposite.

He did the opposite. It says right in the release June 10 unless he rescinds it earlier. The door is open to make it shorter than that. I’m indifferent to which approach to take. Both are flawed. Saying April 30 knowing you are going to have to extend is pointless too. PA governor said ”indefinitely” which is equally unhelpful. There’s no good answer.

 

[DisneyCane]

Each state is going through its own thing. The University of Washington has put together these projections for each state: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can see that they estimate New York will have its peak mid-April, but Florida not until early May and Virginia not until mid-May.

There is some fault in the inputs. For instance, they take into account stay at home orders on a statewide basis. They say Florida hasn't done any but many cities and counties have and Desantis ordered it for the southeast counties that account for 60% of the cases.

 

[flynnibus]

Putting the light at the end of the tunnel so far out will lead to more people say "this is BS" and revolt against it than it will scare people into following the directives. A better message would be to say I'm issuing and order until 4/30 but if we don't come together and follow the directive we won't slow the spread and I'll have to extend the order longer.

For those not following along... that's basically what's been happening. They had essentially the same guidance before... and to quote the gov... 'now its an order'

Because people keep thinking its not their problem...

 

[MisterPenguin]

I haven't looked at NY but Florida's dashboard is fully transparent and informative. Florida gives you testing, cases, deaths and hospitalizations by county if you want to look at that level.

And yet, both on the Florida website and it's COVID19 portal, I can't find any information about any county's or town's stay at home orders. I can't even find the most recent EO regarding DeSantis's Southern Florida lockdown.

Maybe it's there and I just keep missing it.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

This chart of UI increases one week to the next is crazy.

 

[Polynesia]

Exactly right.



This order will create more layoffs and expedite layoffs of currently furloughed employers.

It is extremely irresponsible to set a June date. Rescinding an order is not the same as an order setting a date and then possibly extending.

I like the two to three weeks out and then reevaluate the scenario and adjust as needed even on a daily basis. The website that tells the peak date for each state changed from a day ago for Florida. It moved the peak up by almost two weeks. I suspect it will move it up again as time goes by. Going in to June is not a good call for the local economy or people’s psyche.

 

[21stamps]

Let me explain something for those who aren’t dealing with layoffs and furloughs either for themselves or for their employees-

A furloughed employee still receives their normal benefits, retains their seniority.

A laid off employee loses it all.