Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Kevin_W]

Here’s where I’m confused, how are the models predicting a peak of 6-8k Ohioans per day, when in the same breath they say that we have no idea how many people are infected right now???
I’m trying to understand this.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful" is a famous quote to remember.

On March 12, the now-famous Dr. Amy Acton said that over 1% of the Ohio population (or >117,000 people) had the disease. Here we are 2 weeks later. Ohio has confirmed 704 positive cases and 10 dead, by the last numbers I saw. So, was she full of crap? Was the model just that terribly wrong? Or is this a good thing and the mortality rate is <0.01%?

My guess is that it's probably mostly the first two with a little of the third. Btu I still think it was a pretty irresponsible thing to say.

 

[DisneyCane]

There have been dozens of posts in this thread, not to mention countless news articles and medical and official announcements, explaining why the comparison to flu is flawed and why the biggest threat posed by the virus is its knock-on effect rather than its inherent lethality. For reasons I will never understand, you are choosing to ignore these correctives and constantly repeating the same tired and misleading talking points. We don’t all have to agree on how the crisis ought to be handled, but we should at least strive to be accurate and informed before entering into debate.

I'm not ignoring the knock-on effect. I'm saying that it can be similarly mitigated without going to these extreme, draconian measures.

These measures don't seem to be working all that well in Italy. I believe we are 17 days into their lockdown and the new cases today were the highest since 6 days ago and are the second highest new case count they have had.

 

[DisneyCane]

"All models are wrong, but some are useful" is a famous quote to remember.

On March 12, the now-famous Dr. Amy Acton said that over 1% of the Ohio population (or >117,000 people) had the disease. Here we are 2 weeks later. Ohio has confirmed 704 positive cases and 10 dead, by the last numbers I saw. So, was she full of crap? Was the model just that terribly wrong? Or is this a good thing and the mortality rate is <0.01%?

My guess is that it's probably mostly the first two with a little of the third. Btu I still think it was a pretty irresponsible thing to say.

If her statement was correct then there is no argument at all and everything should just go back to normal tomorrow since the mortality rate would be 10 times LESS than the flu.

It's possible that she meant to say 0.1% of the population had it, misspoke and didn't want to look stupid so they doubled down on it. Either that or it was based on a very bad model that they still stand behind.

 

[JoeT63]

Disney World is closed.
Nobody knows when it will reopen.

Next question?

Where were you 11,000 posts ago...?

 

[Horizons '83]

What would be the point in announcing it now? They can’t go back on closures after they’re announced. What’s the harm in waiting, wouldn’t that be the smart thing to do?

Sure they can, the phrase "better safe than sorry" is still applicable today.

 

[LittleBuford]

I'm not ignoring the knock-on effect. I'm saying that it can be similarly mitigated without going to these extreme, draconian measures.

How are you remotely qualified to make such a determination?

These measures don't seem to be working all that well in Italy. I believe we are 17 days into their lockdown and the new cases today were the highest since 6 days ago and are the second highest new case count they have had.

As has already been pointed out several times in this thread, the virus can take five weeks to kill its victims.

 

[21stamps]

Well thank God we got that information out there.

You know that there's a chit chat section of the forum, right?

Do you hate the Cincinnati Reds or baseball?lol. Both of your comments today have been expressing an issue with my comments about Opening Day.
Lighten up. Life is weird right now, don’t fall into a dark place and let yourself find gratification by posting insults/negativity online...especially when you have the ability to overlook or ignore any poster or post that you wish to ignore.

 

[GoofGoof]

How are you remotely qualified to make such a determination?

This has already been posted a few hundred pages back but here it is again.
Experts over time:

 

[21stamps]

Sure they can, the phrase "better safe than sorry" is still applicable today.

I don’t think you understand. That Governor was the first in the USA to close his state’s schools- all schools, public and private.
They are already closed, have been closed. He is taking a wait and see approach to find out how long those closures should be extended, or if the year will not continue in a classroom at all.

There’s no harm in that. It’s preventing a needless action, if it’s needed, it will come.

 

[DisneyCane]

How are you remotely qualified to make such a determination?



As has already been pointed out several times in this thread, the virus can take five weeks to kill its victims.

I'm qualified by looking at information and data and using my brain to interpret it. I have a scientific background and a high level of understanding of statistics. Also common sense that it is possible to do things that isolate the most vulnerable demographics without locking everybody else down.

It doesn't matter how long the virus takes to kill. There are more NEW CASES today in Italy than in 6 days and it is the second highest number of NEW CASES they have had in a single day since the outbreak started. I'm not talking about deaths.

Given the 14 day accepted maximum incubation period in the vast majority of cases, anybody infected before the lockdown should have shown up in the data by 2 days ago. The fact that there is a spike today indicates something isn't going as expected unless there were a large number of untested cases. I haven't seen any reports harping on Italy's lack of testing so I won't assume that is the explanation.

 

[21stamps]

"All models are wrong, but some are useful" is a famous quote to remember.

On March 12, the now-famous Dr. Amy Acton said that over 1% of the Ohio population (or >117,000 people) had the disease. Here we are 2 weeks later. Ohio has confirmed 704 positive cases and 10 dead, by the last numbers I saw. So, was she full of crap? Was the model just that terribly wrong? Or is this a good thing and the mortality rate is <0.01%?

My guess is that it's probably mostly the first two with a little of the third. Btu I still think it was a pretty irresponsible thing to say.

She said today that we have pushed off the spike due to the actions of the past few weeks.., she also said that we will still see a huge spike- 6k-8k cases per day, in the next 2 weeks or so, and it would have been much higher if life wouldn’t have changed. This is giving the hospitals more time to prepare.
I just don’t see where those numbers are coming from. Not even with the new graphs and website.

 

[RobWDW1971]

She said today that we have pushed off the spike due to the actions of the past few weeks.., she also said that we will still see a huge spike- 6k-8k cases today, in the next 2 weeks or so, and it would have been much higher if life wouldn’t have changed. This is gaining the hospitals more time to prepare.
I just don’t see where those numbers are coming from. Not even with the new graphs and website.

You can't prove a hypothetical so you will just have to be satisfied that we intentionally destroyed the economy for "something" and it's "better than it would have been". Remember, experts said it so apparently you shouldn't question it.

 

[21stamps]

This has already been posted a few hundred pages back but here it is again.
Experts over time:
View attachment 458785

To be more accurate to wdwmagic, there should be a Ken next to Karen.

 

[DisneyCane]

She said today that we have pushed off the spike due to the actions of the past few weeks.., she also said that we will still see a huge spike- 6k-8k cases per day, in the next 2 weeks or so, and it would have been much higher if life wouldn’t have changed. This is giving the hospitals more time to prepare.
I just don’t see where those numbers are coming from. Not even with the new graphs and website.

I think the numbers may be coming from a place that requires the use of a hoarded item that comes on cardboard rolls.

 

[21stamps]

You can't prove a hypothetical so you will just have to be satisfied that we intentionally destroyed the economy for "something" and it's "better than it would have been". Remember, experts said it so apparently you shouldn't question it.

I’m struggling with this, greatly. In the conference they say that April even into May will be the spike... which means it’s more and more likely that business will remain closed or modified... which means more people furloughed or laid off...and what does it mean for students and athletes? There’s so many factors here.
If we’re looking at a June date, then what??? I can’t imagine how we, as a country, can regroup and repair if that happens.

 

[LittleBuford]

I'm qualified by looking at information and data and using my brain to interpret it. I have a scientific background and a high level of understanding of statistics. Also common sense that it is possible to do things that isolate the most vulnerable demographics without locking everybody else down.

So not qualified, then. Forgive me for putting more trust in the opinions of actual medics and experts.

As for Italy, the general trajectory these past few days has been encouraging. That doesn’t mean there won’t be occasional exceptions to the pattern, but the lockdown does appear to be bearing fruit overall.

 

[Rescue Ranger]

I wonder what the status of the Citizens of Hollywood will be? When eveything reopens, I hope they are not cut. Hollywood Studios wouldn't be the same without them.

 

[SoCalMort]

As for Italy, the general trajectory these past few days has been encouraging. That doesn’t mean there won’t be occasional exceptions to the pattern, but the lockdown does appear to be bearing fruit overall.

How dare you let facts get in the way of feelings.

 

[DisneyCane]

So not qualified, then. Forgive me for putting more trust in the opinions of actual medics and experts.

As for Italy, the general trajectory these past few days has been encouraging. That doesn’t mean there won’t be occasional exceptions to the pattern, but the lockdown does appear to be bearing fruit overall.

Trust who you want but they are making drastic (and quite possibly unconstitutional) decisions based upon incomplete data. I don't agree that a country (or the world) should be shut down and turned into a police state when nobody even knows how many people have been infected.

 

[21stamps]

So not qualified, then. Forgive me for putting more trust in the opinions of actual medics and experts.

You have admitted that you were late to the party.. you didn’t agree with extreme actions in the beginning, though your reasons were not about economics. So maybe ease up on others? There are a lot of people here who are worried about the economy, and want to make sure that this whole thing doesn’t end up killing life as we know it, for good.