Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

Holland county!

Nope, one try per entry please

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Florida is now down to 5 cases per 100k. This is the lowest number since Spring 2020. Yes, Florida now has less cases than the when Covid19 was starting. 30 states are in single digits and the US according to the NY Times is also down to 9 cases per 100k and in single digits.

Yes. We're enjoying a lull and I'm taking advantage of it more so than the last time (which was not as much of a lull - last summer.) Not requiring masks at my stores except for employees. I still bring one everywhere and wear it in Publix, but other places I'll only put it on if people are near me. But even Broward is not too bad right now.

That variant ba2.2 is already well established in the US.

Didn't realize that until earlier today. The news has been so focused on Ukraine, and I've mostly only checked our local numbers.

Is it only the dosage that you don't know, or is there a possibility that you got a placebo shot instead of the real vax?

Only the dosage. We all definitely got that particular vaccine in one of a few possible different dosages.

There is another part of the study (not my part) where you may have gotten the original version, or a slightly different version - again in various dosages.

So it looks like they are testing to see if they can do lower doses of various versions and have a good effect. "Not getting really sick the next day" would be a pretty good selling point.

Based on what we've seen repeatedly in the past, as goes Europe, so goes America about a month later. I just saw the new Omicron is about 80% more transmissible than the first Omicron (which was already much more transmissible than Delta, etc.)

I really don't want to deal with another wave, but I don't see how we avoid it unless people get fully vaxxed and boosted.

 

[correcaminos]

Yes. We're enjoying a lull and I'm taking advantage of it more so than the last time (which was not as much of a lull - last summer.) Not requiring masks at my stores except for employees. I still bring one everywhere and wear it in Publix, but other places I'll only put it on if people are near me. But even Broward is not too bad right now.

Didn't realize that until earlier today. The news has been so focused on Ukraine, and I've mostly only checked our local numbers.

Only the dosage. We all definitely got that particular vaccine in one of a few possible different dosages.

There is another part of the study (not my part) where you may have gotten the original version, or a slightly different version - again in various dosages.

So it looks like they are testing to see if they can do lower doses of various versions and have a good effect. "Not getting really sick the next day" would be a pretty good selling point.

Based on what we've seen repeatedly in the past, as goes Europe, so goes America about a month later. I just saw the new Omicron is about 80% more transmissible than the first Omicron (which was already much more transmissible than Delta, etc.)

I really don't want to deal with another wave, but I don't see how we avoid it unless people get fully vaxxed and boosted.

Thank you for doing the study. Not sure who you are with but I am grateful for all who join. I got notice of a similar one locally I shared with others (I'm not eligible due to current study I am in).

I think you totally misheard on the transmissibility. It's been thought to be 30%, not 80%. It has been in the US since at least the 1st of Feb.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Thank you for doing the study. Not sure who you are with but I am grateful for all who join. I got notice of a similar one locally I shared with others (I'm not eligible due to current study I am in).

I think you totally misheard on the transmissibility. It's been thought to be 30%, not 80%. It has been in the US since at least the 1st of Feb.

BA.2 is about 40% of cases here in the Northeast. Next week it will become the dominant strain up here which will be very instructive for the country. If we start seeing a dramatic spike, that will spread across the company. If increases continue to be modest (as they have been), we may escape a huge spike.

Omicron definitely spread more quickly in the US than BA.2 is. It went from basically nonexistent in early December to over 70% of cases on December 18. BA.2 is following a slower trajectory.

 

[Kevin_W]

I think you totally misheard on the transmissibility. It's been thought to be 30%, not 80%. It has been in the US since at least the 1st of Feb.

I've seen both numbers reported. It's obviously a hard number to pin down - some of the 80% people say it looks like 30% because of immunity wall from vaccine/prior infection. Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I've seen both numbers reported. It's obviously a hard number to pin down - some of the 80% people say it looks like 30% because of immunity wall from vaccine/prior infection. Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

Maybe a journalist with poor visual acuity saw a 3 as an 8 and everyone just went with it?

 

[drizgirl]

I've seen both numbers reported. It's obviously a hard number to pin down - some of the 80% people say it looks like 30% because of immunity wall from vaccine/prior infection. Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

Honestly, I stick my fingers in my ears every time they talk about the next variant being SO much more transmissable than the last, over the top, more transmissable than anything you've ever encountered in your entire life, variant.

I personally think they overplayed it with the earlier strains to obtain the behavior they wanted and now people are just over hearing about it. At least I am.

 

[Jim L]

I've seen both numbers reported. It's obviously a hard number to pin down - some of the 80% people say it looks like 30% because of immunity wall from vaccine/prior infection. Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

This is exactly what were told would happen from the beginning. All the Dr's said that until we have 70+% of the US population vaccinated covid would continue to mutate and spread.
I don't mind the masks requirement for vaccinated people going away but dropping the vaccination requirement is going to only be good for covid

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Honestly, I stick my fingers in my ears every time they talk about the next variant being SO much more transmissable than the last, over the top, more transmissable than anything you've ever encountered in your entire life, variant.

I personally think they overplayed it with the earlier strains to obtain the behavior they wanted and now people are just over hearing about it. At least I am.

Who are “they” that “ overplayed it” and “ obtained the behavior they wanted?”. Thats a bit close to conspiracy theory in my opinion. Was the last variant not more transmissible? It was and im glad they put it out to the public. If this one is also, i want to know.

 

[mattpeto]

This is exactly what were told would happen from the beginning. All the Dr's said that until we have 70+% of the US population vaccinated covid would continue to mutate and spread.
I don't mind the masks requirement for vaccinated people going away but dropping the vaccination requirement is going to only be good for covid

I am sorry but this is such a naive perspective. When would we start vaccinating animals to prevent this thing from mutating?

The vaccines are doing their job, it’s preventing severe illness and death. Eradicating Covid turned out to be an obtainable task.

 

[drizgirl]

Who are “they” that “ overplayed it” and “ obtained the behavior they wanted?”. Thats a bit close to conspiracy theory in ly opinion. Was the last variant not more transmissible? It was and im glad they put it out to the public. If this one is also, i want to know.

1) media and public health professionals
2) behavior was to obtain mask wearing, vaccination and social distancing.

Didn't say the goal was wrong. Just that I no longer trust what they're saying. They overplayed it with each variant being 80% more transmissible than the last..

And they didn't just say "more" transmissible. Last one was 80% more and now this one is 80% more transmissible than that one. And that was all after the original and delta variants that were already the most contagious things ever.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

And they didn't just say "more" transmissible. Last one was 80% more and now this one is 80% more transmissible than that one. And that was all after the original and delta variants that were already the most contagious things ever.

And they were correct on each one. We have to wait and see if the latest prediction is also correct but it was all true, and i see nothing with publishing the truth about it. IMO
I would be agreeing with you wholeheartedly if their prior predictions were false.

 

[drizgirl]

And they were correct on each one. We have to wait and see if the latest prediction is also correct but it was all true, and i see nothing with publishing the truth about it. IMO
I would be agreeing with you wholeheartedly if their prior predictions were false.

Were they? Were there 80% more infections of Omicron that there were of Delta? Maybe so. I have no idea, but it seems like a stretch. Just as it seems a stretch that one wave so over the top transmissible would be followed up with one equally more transmissible. Does that mean this variant is Delta squared?

Once again, not arguing that Omicron was really transmissible. Just questioning their 80% figures.

 

[JoeCamel]

Were they? Were there 80% more infections of Omicron that there were of Delta? Maybe so. I have no idea, but it seems like a stretch. Just as it seems a stretch that one wave so over the top transmissible would be followed up with one equally more transmissible. Does that mean this variant is Delta squared?

Once again, not arguing that Omicron was really transmissible. Just questioning their 80% figures.

Its not 80% more infections......
IT takes much less viral load to achieve critical mass activating the immune response than the variants before. Has nothing to do with case numbers

 

[drizgirl]

Its not 80% more infections......
IT takes much less viral load to achieve critical mass activating the immune response than the variants before. Has nothing to do with case numbers

My point stands. We also don't know that it really was 80% more infectious. At some point it defies believability. And 80% more infections than a variant that was 80% more infectious of variants that were already one of the most infectious ever defies believability. At least for me.

 

[ToTBellHop]

My point stands. We also don't know that it really was 80% more infectious. At some point it defies believability. And 80% more infections than a variant that was 80% more infectious of variants that were already one of the most infectious ever defies believability. At least for me.

I believe it when I look at the steepness of the December spike.

It‘s not that hard to study and get a good estimate. Compare large, unmasked parties during Delta to Omicron. How many people got sick at each? You also need to know vaccination history and history of prior infection.

Omicron spread like wildfire at holiday parties and in schools. We had not previously seen that kind of spread in schools with masking, for example. We will see how much prior omicron infection impacts the odds of BA.2 infection.

 

[Andrew C]

BA.2 is about 40% of cases here in the Northeast. Next week it will become the dominant strain up here which will be very instructive for the country. If we start seeing a dramatic spike, that will spread across the company. If increases continue to be modest (as they have been), we may escape a huge spike.

Omicron definitely spread more quickly in the US than BA.2 is. It went from basically nonexistent in early December to over 70% of cases on December 18. BA.2 is following a slower trajectory.

 

[drizgirl]

I believe it when I look at the steepness of the December spike.

It‘s not that hard to study and get a good estimate. Compare large, unmasked parties during Delta to Omicron. How many people got sick at each? You also need to know vaccination history and history of prior infection.

Omicron spread like wildfire at holiday parties and in schools. We had not previously seen that kind of spread in schools with masking, for example. We will see how much prior omicron infection impacts the odds of BA.2 infection.

So when you see the steepness of the December spike, do you think this one is 80% more infectious than that?

 

[mmascari]

Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

That each new variant (that we care about) would be more contagious than the last one was predicted right from the start before we even had a new variant to care about. It'll keep following that path too, until we drive down and keep down transmission to a low enough level to not really care about it at all.

Of all the things people like to predict about future variants. That they'll be milder or worse, less deadly or worse, that they'll be less deadly but have worse lingering effects or not. Nobody has any idea about any of those, they're all just hopes and "internet folklore".

The only one we know for sure is that each new variant (that we care about) will be more contagious than the prior. If it wasn't, it would disappear and we wouldn't care about it. That's because this fact has more to do with math and less to do with how the virus behaves. Given an existing A and newly introduced B, there's only 2 things that can happen with B in relation to it's transmission. It's either more or less contagious than A. If B is more contagious, it will infect people faster than A, replacing A, and we'll care about it as a variant of concern. How much more contagious will impact how fast B replaces A. If B is less contagious, it will infect people slower than A, unable to find hosts that A hasn't already infected, and it will die out. Because we will not see it replacing A but as just a blip that is disappearing, we will not care about it, it will not become a variant of concern.

There's actually more instances of B being less contagious than A. Look at one of the variation charts showing all the lineages and evolution. There's way more that never get a name and just disappear.

Predicting that each new variant of concern that gets a name will be more infectious than the prior is even less risky than predicting that WDW ticket prices will be higher next year than last year.

 

[correcaminos]

BA.2 is about 40% of cases here in the Northeast. Next week it will become the dominant strain up here which will be very instructive for the country. If we start seeing a dramatic spike, that will spread across the company. If increases continue to be modest (as they have been), we may escape a huge spike.

Omicron definitely spread more quickly in the US than BA.2 is. It went from basically nonexistent in early December to over 70% of cases on December 18. BA.2 is following a slower trajectory.

Yeah omicron went from nothing to all in a matter of weeks. BA.2 is not.

I've seen both numbers reported. It's obviously a hard number to pin down - some of the 80% people say it looks like 30% because of immunity wall from vaccine/prior infection. Either way it is depressing that we had the original very-contagious disease. Then the more transmissable Delta. then finally the ultimate spreader in Omicron. Only to find out - wait, it gets worse.

Got a legit link. I found none with 80% - only 80% more than Alpha. maybe I'm missing something here... I don't see BA.2 as worse. Omicron wasn't depressing either. Delta was. Omicron has infected a lot but we never had the overwhelming numbers in terms of seriousness that we did with Delta or Alpha.

BA.2 is also not overtaking the same speed as Omicron did. We're talking a percentage over a month later compared to omicron and US cases are still dropping. In S. Africa BA.2 was dominant around early Feb as well as their cases are still slowly going down. NY said it's about 40% of all cases and they are not spiking. Small increase but I mean small. Denmark was hit with about 50% being BA.2 end of Jan and they are dropping at a decent rate. They even dropped masks in the middle of the peak. In some of the EU cases rise but deaths are falling.

So call me crazy, but why is this that much worse?