Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Infection immunity does play a role, which is why I have seen future estimates from ID people... we should not see waves with this much death, unless immunity isn't working right. It should not be another year of 400K. The bets the unvaccinated made... have mostly been called. But like we saw in Omicron, once you get older, if you're not as healthy, and you didn't get your booster... a trip to the hospital is not out of the question. We have invested so much of the response in terms of death and mostly put the potential disabilities on the back-burner, because of all the unknowns. That is the next part of this. And why they do predict that the pressure on the healthcare system will continue, but hitting different elements. Chronic needs will be different than the acute.

I am not so confident that all the people who claim they are comfortable if Covid leads to their death, are as comfortable with the idea that their expectations of retirement or their career could come to a screeching halt, if that one time out of several, that annual post-Christmas Covid illness results in cardiac issues, neuro issues and other things that put people in a position of having to rely on others for basic needs. If dementia runs in your family, are people okay with a winter illness being a trigger so they need care at age 60 instead of 80? People may have gotten life insurance to protect their spouse & family "just in case" for any of the traditional adverse events... car accident, heart attack, cancer, and now Covid... but what about if you don't die, but can't work? Don't die, but in retirement instead of living comfortably at home, vacationing at their DVC... need to be in assisted living or memory care? "Cold and flu don't do that." Those don't have the vascular component this does.

So another round of bets have been placed.

 

[mmascari]

I

So let me get this straight.

You just said the unvaccinated don’t care about dying.

Yet for some reason you care?

Let them make their choices and if it turns out poorly that’s on them.

It’s true, the vast majority of those 400,000 will be unvaccinated people. But there will be vaccinated in the mix too. If the vaccinated are 5% that’s 20,000 who tried and got unlucky. If the level was down to 100,000, it could be 5,000 who tried and got unlucky. So, we just doom and extra 280,000 unvaccinated jerks and 15,000 who tried cause we’ve got nothing. Not to mention those who the vaccine doesn’t work for. To bad for them.

I’ve given up caring about the people who choose not to vaccinate. If they could die faster, at least get severe enough COVID for strong immunity.

I care that they exist as they keep the the case count large. This keeps the small percentage of vaccinated that still have bad outcomes a large raw number. Since it’s a small percent of a huge number. The only way to fix that is to reduce the huge number to smaller by eliminating unvaccinated who foster COVID. Alternatively, we need a better vaccine with an even larger reduction so it’s an even smaller percentage of that huge number. The first is way easier to implement.

 

[hopemax]

Oh, I meant to post earlier...

Our local Kroger chain had the free 3M N95 Aura masks at the entry to the store today. Don't forget to check your local distribution points.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So, no masks, and nothing else? That’s it, the 400,000 is it.

It’s true, the vast majority of those 400,000 will be unvaccinated people. But there will be vaccinated in the mix too. If the vaccinated are 5% that’s 20,000 who tried and got unlucky. If the level was down to 100,000, it could be 5,000 who tried and got unlucky. So, we just doom and extra 280,000 unvaccinated jerks and 15,000 who tried cause we’ve got nothing. Not to mention those who the vaccine doesn’t work for. To bad for them.

The flip side to the question is what else can we do?

We’ve had effective vaccines available for a year now, they aren’t 100% at stopping cases but they are 99% at keeping cases mild, if someone had told me we’d have that 18 months ago I’d say they were dreaming because vaccines take years to develop.

I wish we had a better answer but what we’re doing now is resulting in 400,000 deaths, our only real hope for those numbers to drop significantly is Omicron infection providing some natural protection or they develop a new vaccine that is more effective… and we start at square one trying to convince the same hesitant people to get vaccinated again. If one of those 2 things doesn’t happen we’ll have 400,000 deaths next year whether we keep mask mandates or not.

 

[hopemax]

The stuff I have seen ID people say we can do, is the stuff that would help with all the winter illnesses.

Updated approaches to ventilation
Rapid Testing (before Covid, ID people wondered why we couldn't have more options for out of doctor's office testing for the common winter illnesses. Flu, RSV, etc. So people can react accordingly. Covid makes the case for a stronger need)
Sick Leave
Better disease surveillance. (There are reasons the UK and South Africa caught the variants, while we play whack-a-mole)
Scalability plans for surges in healthcare needs (the surveillance reveals where and when to deploy them)

Becoming a healthier society isn't just about diet & exercise.

 

[lazyboy97o]

We have invested so much of the response in terms of death and mostly put the potential disabilities on the back-burner, because of all the unknowns. That is the next part of this. And why they do predict that the pressure on the healthcare system will continue, but hitting different elements. Chronic needs will be different than the acute.

I now fully believe this will push the US to some form of nationalized healthcare. The ongoing costs are going to be severe.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I now fully believe this will push the US to some form of nationalized healthcare. The ongoing costs are going to be severe.

It would be nice if something positive came out of Covid. Single payer has its drawbacks too but health insurance is a disaster in this country that needs to be addressed sooner or later.

 

[Lilofan]

I now fully believe this will push the US to some form of nationalized healthcare. The ongoing costs are going to be severe.

Agreed. One Canadian was surprised to know about we in the US choosing between in network and out of network doctors and dentists. He replied " What's that" ?

 

[Touchdown]

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is not a traditional vaccine.

Yes it was, it was a traditional live virus vaccine like the MMR vaccine. Novavax is a protein/adjuvant vaccine which is far newer.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It would be nice if something positive came out of Covid. Single payer has its drawbacks too but health insurance is a disaster in this country that needs to be addressed sooner or later.

I thought that keeping a little space between people would stick around. I was really enjoying it. Not so in the grocery store check out yesterday. Felt like I was at the MK getting ready for the fireworks. Have no idea why people still need to almost stand on top of you.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yes it was, it was a traditional live virus vaccine like the MMR vaccine. Novavax is a protein/adjuvant vaccine which is far newer.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a viral vector vaccine. The live viruses in the MMR vaccine are measles, mumps and rubella viruses. The live virus in the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine is a genetically modified adenovirus, not attenuated SARS-CoV-2.

 

[danlb_2000]

Yeah…no. That is being far too dismissive of my current high-risk level.

Also, this:

I was reading about this last night. For anyone who chose not to read the article here are the highlights. And yet, there are people who still say "it's just the flu"

"In an analysis of more than 11 million U.S. veterans’ health records, researchers found the risk of 20 different heart and vessel maladies was substantially increased in veterans who had COVID-19 1 year earlier, compared with those who didn’t. The risk rose with severity of initial disease and extended to every outcome the team examined, including heart attacks, arrhythmias, strokes, cardiac arrest, and more. Even people who never went to the hospital had more cardiovascular disease than those who were never infected."

. “We found an increased risk of cardiovascular problems in old people and in young people, in people with diabetes and without diabetes, in people with obesity and people without obesity, in people who smoked and who never smoked.”

"For example, veterans who had had COVID-19 faced a 72% higher risk of heart failure after 12 months than those in a control group who didn’t test positive. "

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

 

[DisneyCane]

Accepting that 400,000 yearly deaths is the new normal, and all the “not dead other impacts” that go with it. That this is the new normal. We tried, and this is the best we can do. That has me disturbed.

There is no other plan. Ignoring that reality isn’t a plan.

So, no masks, and nothing else? That’s it, the 400,000 is it.

It’s true, the vast majority of those 400,000 will be unvaccinated people. But there will be vaccinated in the mix too. If the vaccinated are 5% that’s 20,000 who tried and got unlucky. If the level was down to 100,000, it could be 5,000 who tried and got unlucky. So, we just doom and extra 280,000 unvaccinated jerks and 15,000 who tried cause we’ve got nothing. Not to mention those who the vaccine doesn’t work for. To bad for them.

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

The most likely scenario is that the combination of vaccinated people and unvaccinated people being infected will continue to give the human species higher resistance to severe disease regardless of the natural evolution of the virus. The virus is also likely to mutate to less virulent but possibly more transmissive variants. Most likely it won't be 400,000 deaths a year in the US going forward but, if that is the number then it is what it is. This isn't the apocalypse and we are past the time where people should be making their own risk assessments and choices.

I know that some people don't like my attitude about deaths by age group but the fact is that the overwhelming majority of COVID deaths to date have been elderly people. I made this chart with the most current CDC data:

Almost 75% of the people who have died from/with COVID were 65 or older. There have only been 2,887 people under 24 in the USA who have died from/with COVID in two years. That averages to 29 people per state per year. It is likely (although I don't have the hard data to back it up) that most of these people had significant underlying conditions.

In general, healthy people under 30 are at a miniscule risk from COVID, healthy people from 30-50 are at very little risk from COVID. Once you hit 50 the risk gets higher but this is true of many other diseases. However, you can reduce that risk by getting vaccinated.

So, while you may be disappointed, the people have spoken and 400,000 deaths a year (if that's what it ends up being) has been deemed acceptable. The fact that governors of states with all political leanings are dropping mitigation faster than RotR LL sells out indicates that public sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor and they know this from internal polling.

Just to toss out one article but this has been echoed for 2 years now almost.... just that we never wanted to assume it could happen

This is the most likely path that the virus will take. While it is in the process of weakening, anybody who wants to can reduce their risk significantly by getting vaccinated.

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

I feel bad for immunosuppressed people like you but Omicron proved that there is literally nothing that can be done that allows everyone to return to normal and gets the spread low enough not to effect people in your situation. No amount of vaccination or masking (unless the nasal vaccines become available and work to prevent infection at a very high level) will get the spread low enough.

The choice is either have all kinds of mitigation measures that effect everyone's life in a negative way or go back to normal and have immunosuppressed people wear N95 respirators in public. Since the percentage of the population that is in the latter category is pretty low, that is the most practical solution.

 

[DisneyCane]

I was reading about this last night. For anyone who chose not to read the article here are the highlights. And yet, there are people who still say "it's just the flu"

"In an analysis of more than 11 million U.S. veterans’ health records, researchers found the risk of 20 different heart and vessel maladies was substantially increased in veterans who had COVID-19 1 year earlier, compared with those who didn’t. The risk rose with severity of initial disease and extended to every outcome the team examined, including heart attacks, arrhythmias, strokes, cardiac arrest, and more. Even people who never went to the hospital had more cardiovascular disease than those who were never infected."

. “We found an increased risk of cardiovascular problems in old people and in young people, in people with diabetes and without diabetes, in people with obesity and people without obesity, in people who smoked and who never smoked.”

"For example, veterans who had had COVID-19 faced a 72% higher risk of heart failure after 12 months than those in a control group who didn’t test positive. "

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

What variant did the population studied have and were they vaccinated (or boosted) prior to infection? These are the key things to study because the current situation is that almost all infections are Omicron and everybody has the ability to be vaccinated and boosted.

Studying unvaccinated veterans who had the Alpha variant would not really be relevant.

 

[drizgirl]

I dont know, this time around places and States are just NOT waiting to hit the CDC required numbers anymore.

I think we can throw all these positivity numbers right out the window now.



I see NO chance at all Universal waiting for Orange County to go into the "moderate or low" level. And, I am going to go out on a limb here and say DISNEY also WILL NOT wait this time around.

We don't know for certain. However, I think there is 99% certainty that Disney is not going to keep masks when basically every state and every other vacation destination drops them. I mean, when we're at the point where Las Vegas is dropping them in casinos, I think we've reached the endgame on masking.

Honestly I have to think it will be tied to cast member infection rates. And we have no information on that other than some guesses. But I agree, it likely won’t be very long.

 

[DisneyCane]

We don't know for certain. However, I think there is 99% certainty that Disney is not going to keep masks when basically every state and every other vacation destination drops them. I mean, when we're at the point where Las Vegas is dropping them in casinos, I think we've reached the endgame on masking.

Not only did the Vegas casinos drop them but it seemed to be instant. As soon as I saw the news that the Nevada Gaming Commission removed the mandate I went to the MGM resorts "safety" page and all mention of masks was already removed.

I was thrilled since I'll be in Vegas next month. I hope Disney makes the policy change before next week when I'm there although I'm mostly going for the art festival at Epcot so I won't be indoors much.

 

[FanforDisney]

What variant did the population studied have and were they vaccinated (or boosted) prior to infection? These are the key things to study because the current situation is that almost all infections are Omicron and everybody has the ability to be vaccinated and boosted.

Studying unvaccinated veterans who had the Alpha variant would not really be relevant.

Good point. Let's see what the Omicron variant does.

 

[mmascari]

Most likely it won't be 400,000 deaths a year in the US going forward but, if that is the number then it is what it is.

This may be the best answer I've seen so far.

It's honest and consistent. It doesn't pretend that things will just get better on their own. There's some hope that they do in there, but it completely accepts that if they don't, that's fine too. That it is what it is, so clearly we don't need another plan, if it stayed this way forever it would be fine.

I don't like this as a plan, since I don't like the result. I think there's a bunch of other bad things it's glossing over. But there's no pretending or denial in it. It's why I still read these posts and even "like" them sometimes.

 

[Trauma]

This may be the best answer I've seen so far.

It's honest and consistent. It doesn't pretend that things will just get better on their own. There's some hope that they do in there, but it completely accepts that if they don't, that's fine too. That it is what it is, so clearly we don't need another plan, if it stayed this way forever it would be fine.

I don't like this as a plan, since I don't like the result. I think there's a bunch of other bad things it's glossing over. But there's no pretending or denial in it. It's why I still read these posts and even "like" them sometimes.

When you study the numbers 400k seems like a worst case scenario.

I just think that your receive such push back on your posts because your always looking at worst case.

It would be like me posting over and over that we are going to have 12k deaths a year from Covid going forward and it’s time to forget about it.

We need to look at the full range of possible outcomes and have a reasonable path forward based on likelihoods and adjusting to actuality as it unfolds.

 

[correcaminos]

This may be the best answer I've seen so far.

It's honest and consistent. It doesn't pretend that things will just get better on their own. There's some hope that they do in there, but it completely accepts that if they don't, that's fine too. That it is what it is, so clearly we don't need another plan, if it stayed this way forever it would be fine.

I don't like this as a plan, since I don't like the result. I think there's a bunch of other bad things it's glossing over. But there's no pretending or denial in it. It's why I still read these posts and even "like" them sometimes.

I'm a middle road person. Will do ask asked no worries but don't always love it. You asked if this can diminish on its own and it can. That's not denial, it's actually based on history of viruses. So don't take that article I posted as dismissive as it is a reality I am sure we will get to. What we do until then I do care about. I mask because most places ask and numbers are high but dropping like flies. They get to a low number and no mandates and I won't mask.

I worry about burn out with medical people most now. I still worry about unvaccinated or immunocompromised. But I know also reality is this is not a forever issue. You can still care and know it won't sustain.