Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

My personal read of the “room” is that the general hope is that this is the virus’s last push. Experts and medically credentialed pundits that have been cautious all along seem to be taking a different tone lately. They come across optimistic that once the deaths from this current wave tick down, and cases drop hopefully to last summer’s levels and ideally lower, we will enter the real “living with it” stage.

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

 

[Nubs70]

Now we should really find out where and how this virus got started.

 

[maui2k7]

Ok, and?

What’s the and next step? Or are you saying the 400,000 is it, there’s no solution?

Better and more lasting vaccines plus natural immunity to limit the number of people COVID can infect.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I’m surprised no states have done a mandate yet, they historically have the power but not a single one has even attempted it.

I don’t believe any state would get away with it and I don’t believe they should.

 

[Trauma]

Accepting that 400,000 yearly deaths is the new normal, and all the “not dead other impacts” that go with it. That this is the new normal. We tried, and this is the best we can do. That has me disturbed.

There is no other plan. Ignoring that reality isn’t a plan.

We should stabilize around 80k deaths a year or less.

Why do you keep saying 400k?

 

[sullyinMT]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Yes, there are expected waves, but I hear more “living with it,” “able to absorb waves if some level of immunity hold,” etc. It’s a noticeably different tone. There’s still the reality that big waves will overwhelm areas of low vaccination and leave all of us at risk for something bigger going forward.

Whether it’s resignation to human behavior or political science over medical science, or a mix of both, the impacts will likely be more than nagging for a few more years. But that’s not changing the seismic shift we’ve seen from schools, states, et al, these past few weeks.

 

[Trauma]

And you got your answer, not just ignoring everything is “freaking out.”

Making up nonsense numbers is “freaking out”

 

[correcaminos]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Just to toss out one article but this has been echoed for 2 years now almost.... just that we never wanted to assume it could happen

 

[mmascari]

Why do you keep saying 400k?

Because 500,000 sounded like it was presumptive.

Between February 27, 2020 and February 10, 2022, over that 2 years 910,373 died. It was roughly equal, and I rounded down a little. I suppose it’s rude of me to think of 800,001 to 910,373 as part of the third and current year. We still have 17 days to get to 2 years. We could clear, 1,000,000 by then and really be 500,000 each year. Would need to do the math to see how equal they were. Memory says it was pretty close though.

 

[Trauma]

Because 500,000 sounded like it was presumptive.

Between February 27, 2020 and February 10, 2022, over that 2 years 910,373 died. It was roughly equal, and I rounded down a little. I suppose it’s rude of me to think of 800,001 to 910,373 as part of the third and current year. We still have 17 days to get to 2 years. We could clear, 1,000,000 by then and really be 500,000 each year. Would need to do the math to see how equal they were. Memory says it was pretty close though.

So you are using numbers that don’t apply to the current situation.

I guess if you want to make things sound worse than they are, that would be the way to do it.

 

[Polkadotdress]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

 

[Trauma]

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

 

[mmascari]

So you are using numbers that don’t apply to the current situation.

I guess if you want to make things sound worse than they are, that would be the way to do it.

The 7 day daily death average has been over 1,737 for a month, mostly over 2,000. 60,000 in the last month. Is that not current? If we held that all year, it would be over 700,000. I don’t expect that. 400,000 yearly seems to fit right in there.

The other plan is to just hope that’s wrong. Hope it solves itself on its own. If you have another idea, please share it.

Hope isn’t a plan, it’s just luck.

 

[mmascari]

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

Yeah, I’m sorry.

We can’t even have a plan to reduce exposure and transmission at all. Collectively, we’ve failed you.

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

Nobody has asked about 0 in more than a year, that’s long gone. Now we cannot even try to reduce. We’re at “it is what it is, oh well”.

 

[Trauma]

The 7 day daily death average has been over 1,737 for a month, mostly over 2,000. 60,000 in the last month. Is that not current? If we held that all year, it would be over 700,000. I don’t expect that. 400,000 yearly seems to fit right in there.

The other plan is to just hope that’s wrong. Hope it solves itself on its own. If you have another idea, please share it.

Hope isn’t a plan, it’s just luck.

No it’s not current.

Deaths are a LAGGING indicator.

The case number are falling off a cliff.

The number of deaths will lag behind cases but they will fall as well.

Hope is not the plan.

The plan is get your freaking vaccine.

If you don’t want too and you die

 

[Polkadotdress]

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

No.

But I had hoped we’d reach a level where I wouldn’t have to constantly think about protecting myself.

You know…where’d I’d be able to “live my life” as you all say.

 

[Trauma]

No.

But I had hoped we’d reach a level where I wouldn’t have to constantly think about protecting myself.

You know…where’s I’d be able to “love my life” as you all say.

Ok so wait few more weeks and we should be there.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Ok so wait few more weeks and we should be there.

Yeah…no. That is being far too dismissive of my current high-risk level.

Also, this:

 

[mmascari]

No it’s not current.

Deaths are a LAGGING indicator.

The case number are falling off a cliff.

The number of deaths will lag behind cases but they will fall as well.

Right, they lag. We haven’t hit the peak yet for deaths. We'll still be under 700,000, but under 400,000 maybe, maybe not.

Hope is not the plan.

The plan is get your freaking vaccine.

If you don’t want too and you die

The unvaccinated are dying to slow then. That plan is going to take a decade to play out. And there’s no plan to get more vaccinated.

Just saying “get your vaccine” isn’t going to do it. They don’t care about dying. When they say no, there’s no social cost. No downside to saying no, besides the death they don’t care about.

So, we’re back to hoping more get vaccinated.

 

[Trauma]

I

Right, they lag. We haven’t hit the peak yet for deaths. We'll still be under 700,000, but under 400,000 maybe, maybe not.


The unvaccinated are dying to slow then. That plan is going to take a decade to play out. And there’s no plan to get more vaccinated.

Just saying “get your vaccine” isn’t going to do it. They don’t care about dying. When they say no, there’s no social cost. No downside to saying no, besides the death they don’t care about.

So, we’re back to hoping more get vaccinated.

So let me get this straight.

You just said the unvaccinated don’t care about dying.

Yet for some reason you care?

Let them make their choices and if it turns out poorly that’s on them.