Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Nubs70]

Now we should really find out where and how this virus got started.

 

[maui2k7]

Ok, and?

What’s the and next step? Or are you saying the 400,000 is it, there’s no solution?

Better and more lasting vaccines plus natural immunity to limit the number of people COVID can infect.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I’m surprised no states have done a mandate yet, they historically have the power but not a single one has even attempted it.

I don’t believe any state would get away with it and I don’t believe they should.

 

[Trauma]

Accepting that 400,000 yearly deaths is the new normal, and all the “not dead other impacts” that go with it. That this is the new normal. We tried, and this is the best we can do. That has me disturbed.

There is no other plan. Ignoring that reality isn’t a plan.

We should stabilize around 80k deaths a year or less.

Why do you keep saying 400k?

 

[sullyinMT]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Yes, there are expected waves, but I hear more “living with it,” “able to absorb waves if some level of immunity hold,” etc. It’s a noticeably different tone. There’s still the reality that big waves will overwhelm areas of low vaccination and leave all of us at risk for something bigger going forward.

Whether it’s resignation to human behavior or political science over medical science, or a mix of both, the impacts will likely be more than nagging for a few more years. But that’s not changing the seismic shift we’ve seen from schools, states, et al, these past few weeks.

 

[Trauma]

And you got your answer, not just ignoring everything is “freaking out.”

Making up nonsense numbers is “freaking out”

 

[correcaminos]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Just to toss out one article but this has been echoed for 2 years now almost.... just that we never wanted to assume it could happen

 

[mmascari]

Why do you keep saying 400k?

Because 500,000 sounded like it was presumptive.

Between February 27, 2020 and February 10, 2022, over that 2 years 910,373 died. It was roughly equal, and I rounded down a little. I suppose it’s rude of me to think of 800,001 to 910,373 as part of the third and current year. We still have 17 days to get to 2 years. We could clear, 1,000,000 by then and really be 500,000 each year. Would need to do the math to see how equal they were. Memory says it was pretty close though.

 

[Trauma]

Because 500,000 sounded like it was presumptive.

Between February 27, 2020 and February 10, 2022, over that 2 years 910,373 died. It was roughly equal, and I rounded down a little. I suppose it’s rude of me to think of 800,001 to 910,373 as part of the third and current year. We still have 17 days to get to 2 years. We could clear, 1,000,000 by then and really be 500,000 each year. Would need to do the math to see how equal they were. Memory says it was pretty close though.

So you are using numbers that don’t apply to the current situation.

I guess if you want to make things sound worse than they are, that would be the way to do it.

 

[Polkadotdress]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

 

[Trauma]

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

 

[mmascari]

So you are using numbers that don’t apply to the current situation.

I guess if you want to make things sound worse than they are, that would be the way to do it.

The 7 day daily death average has been over 1,737 for a month, mostly over 2,000. 60,000 in the last month. Is that not current? If we held that all year, it would be over 700,000. I don’t expect that. 400,000 yearly seems to fit right in there.

The other plan is to just hope that’s wrong. Hope it solves itself on its own. If you have another idea, please share it.

Hope isn’t a plan, it’s just luck.

 

[mmascari]

Meanwhile, the immunosuppressed like me are completely resigned to not being able to take off our masks for a very long time.

It’s exhausting…

Yeah, I’m sorry.

We can’t even have a plan to reduce exposure and transmission at all. Collectively, we’ve failed you.

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

Nobody has asked about 0 in more than a year, that’s long gone. Now we cannot even try to reduce. We’re at “it is what it is, oh well”.

 

[Trauma]

The 7 day daily death average has been over 1,737 for a month, mostly over 2,000. 60,000 in the last month. Is that not current? If we held that all year, it would be over 700,000. I don’t expect that. 400,000 yearly seems to fit right in there.

The other plan is to just hope that’s wrong. Hope it solves itself on its own. If you have another idea, please share it.

Hope isn’t a plan, it’s just luck.

No it’s not current.

Deaths are a LAGGING indicator.

The case number are falling off a cliff.

The number of deaths will lag behind cases but they will fall as well.

Hope is not the plan.

The plan is get your freaking vaccine.

If you don’t want too and you die

 

[Polkadotdress]

Did you think we where going to reach Covid Zero?

That has not happened anywhere regardless of vaccination rates.

No.

But I had hoped we’d reach a level where I wouldn’t have to constantly think about protecting myself.

You know…where’d I’d be able to “live my life” as you all say.

 

[Trauma]

No.

But I had hoped we’d reach a level where I wouldn’t have to constantly think about protecting myself.

You know…where’s I’d be able to “love my life” as you all say.

Ok so wait few more weeks and we should be there.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Ok so wait few more weeks and we should be there.

Yeah…no. That is being far too dismissive of my current high-risk level.

Also, this:

 

[mmascari]

No it’s not current.

Deaths are a LAGGING indicator.

The case number are falling off a cliff.

The number of deaths will lag behind cases but they will fall as well.

Right, they lag. We haven’t hit the peak yet for deaths. We'll still be under 700,000, but under 400,000 maybe, maybe not.

Hope is not the plan.

The plan is get your freaking vaccine.

If you don’t want too and you die

The unvaccinated are dying to slow then. That plan is going to take a decade to play out. And there’s no plan to get more vaccinated.

Just saying “get your vaccine” isn’t going to do it. They don’t care about dying. When they say no, there’s no social cost. No downside to saying no, besides the death they don’t care about.

So, we’re back to hoping more get vaccinated.

 

[Trauma]

I

Right, they lag. We haven’t hit the peak yet for deaths. We'll still be under 700,000, but under 400,000 maybe, maybe not.


The unvaccinated are dying to slow then. That plan is going to take a decade to play out. And there’s no plan to get more vaccinated.

Just saying “get your vaccine” isn’t going to do it. They don’t care about dying. When they say no, there’s no social cost. No downside to saying no, besides the death they don’t care about.

So, we’re back to hoping more get vaccinated.

So let me get this straight.

You just said the unvaccinated don’t care about dying.

Yet for some reason you care?

Let them make their choices and if it turns out poorly that’s on them.

 

[hopemax]

The ones I’m seeing are saying stuff like if we stay at this vaccination level, we’ll see waves up and down. That they expect people to get COVID once or twice a year. Which isn’t great for the vaccinated, and totally horrific for the unvaccinated.

I haven’t seen one report by an actual infectious disease person suggest it’s going to simply get better on its own. Lots of hope it will opinions by people who are tired. Just hope is a crappy plan. It’s like hoping to eat at Cinderella's table without a reservation as a walk up. Might happen, never know. But, as a plan, it’s likely to have a bad outcome.

Infection immunity does play a role, which is why I have seen future estimates from ID people... we should not see waves with this much death, unless immunity isn't working right. It should not be another year of 400K. The bets the unvaccinated made... have mostly been called. But like we saw in Omicron, once you get older, if you're not as healthy, and you didn't get your booster... a trip to the hospital is not out of the question. We have invested so much of the response in terms of death and mostly put the potential disabilities on the back-burner, because of all the unknowns. That is the next part of this. And why they do predict that the pressure on the healthcare system will continue, but hitting different elements. Chronic needs will be different than the acute.

I am not so confident that all the people who claim they are comfortable if Covid leads to their death, are as comfortable with the idea that their expectations of retirement or their career could come to a screeching halt, if that one time out of several, that annual post-Christmas Covid illness results in cardiac issues, neuro issues and other things that put people in a position of having to rely on others for basic needs. If dementia runs in your family, are people okay with a winter illness being a trigger so they need care at age 60 instead of 80? People may have gotten life insurance to protect their spouse & family "just in case" for any of the traditional adverse events... car accident, heart attack, cancer, and now Covid... but what about if you don't die, but can't work? Don't die, but in retirement instead of living comfortably at home, vacationing at their DVC... need to be in assisted living or memory care? "Cold and flu don't do that." Those don't have the vascular component this does.

So another round of bets have been placed.