Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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danlb_2000

Premium Member
We have seen this movie before, might have a different ending this time but hey, let's give it a shot. Why not?

I would really be interested in seeing some data from PA schools. PA had a state wide mask mandate that was voided by the state supreme court back in December. Some school kept the mask requirement, others removed it. This would provide an perfect opportunity to compare since you would have a baseline for all schools under the mandate, and then that could be compare to schools that kept of dropped the mandate.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
I would really be interested in seeing some data from PA schools. PA had a state wide mask mandate that was voided by the state supreme court back in December. Some school kept the mask requirement, others removed it. This would provide an perfect opportunity to compare since you would have a baseline for all schools under the mandate, and then that could be compare to schools that kept of dropped the mandate.
I think you might have to view the results through a political lens, PA has some deep divides in how willing they are to follow the mandates so a slip here a nose there might be OK in one "masked area" or it may be the very rare exception in others. Hard to tell how much compliance there really is.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I would really be interested in seeing some data from PA schools. PA had a state wide mask mandate that was voided by the state supreme court back in December. Some school kept the mask requirement, others removed it. This would provide an perfect opportunity to compare since you would have a baseline for all schools under the mandate, and then that could be compare to schools that kept of dropped the mandate.
My state and I think Michigan were able to compare. I am pretty sure I posted the articles and I admit to being too lazy to find again at the moment (really should be working LOL). UofM though had a significant difference in schools. As did my own state. This was pre-omicron but it was stark the number of differences in cases. I'm sure other states like ours have data to compare.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
My dad used to always say… what people say privately is usually more honest than what they say publicly. He meant that in regards to persons character but I think it applies to the truth also.

In Feb 2020 Fauci privately told a White House staffer via email not to bother with a cloth mask because they don’t stop the virus. I think that was truthful then and I think it’s still truthful now.

Had he revised that statement later to say to wear a cloth mask because it has some benefit in protecting others, despite it providing no real benefit to yourself, I think all of the statements would have been 100% truthful. Unfortunately they decided to go with the we said that to save them for healthcare workers which I think was a lie.

I don’t think Fauci tries to mislead the public, but I think those he works for probably interfere with his message more than we think, and as a result we aren’t getting his unfiltered comments like we should be from one of our top health officials.
This is what an aerosol scientist said when asked about the statement in Dr. Fauci's email.

“Early on in the pandemic, prevention messaging was coming primarily from infectious disease experts who have little to no training in aerosol science,” Alex Huffman, an aerosol scientist at the University of Denver, told us in an email. “As the pandemic discussion has become more multidisciplinary, scientists and medical professionals of all descriptions have learned from one another, and realized that the narrow, disciplinary perspectives they may have started with were often insufficient to properly address the airborne nature of this particular disease.”

That includes aerosol scientists, who were able to add their expertise to the broader public health debate.

So, as Huffman explained to us, it’s true that the virus might be 0.1 or 0.2 microns and a paper or cloth mask wouldn’t filter something that small. But “viruses don’t fly out of your mouth by themselves. They are encased in droplets,” he said. Those droplets come from the lungs, nose or mouth and include proteins, salts and some viruses.

“It doesn’t matter how big the virus is, it matters how big the droplet is,” Huffman said.

While that may not have been widely understood by public health officials at the beginning of the pandemic, “to Dr. Fauci’s great credit,” Huffman said, “he changed his perspective, learned a little about aerosol physics, and started listening to a broader audience of experts, including aerosol scientists.”

Dr. Fauci is not an omnipotent or omniscient. In February 2020, were there aspects of SARS-COV-2 transmission that Dr. Fauci did not fully understand or appreciate the full significance of? He's said, yes. Not only in terms of aerosols but pre and asymptomatic transmission. When he wrote that email, he might have been truthful, but he was wrong. Leaning on his truthfulness in private communication as evidence of the accuracy of the science dismisses the possibility that, early on, his understanding of this specific science was accurate.

To discount the PPE shortages in the effect on messaging you would need to know when Dr. Fauci started evolving his thinking, and what the state of PPE availability was at that time. By April, CDC guidance had changed, so presumably the change in mask benefits was later in February or March. Was there not still PPE shortages at that time?

I get the feeling that people expect there was a savior in our midst. And if only they had been in charge things would be different. Instead of a lot of people, each with differing understanding of individual puzzle pieces, trying to put together guidance of what we needed to do, that would be effective AND adopted, in an evolving situation with so many others actively trying to make the case everyone was overreacting and anything was unnecessary.

Every couple months we do this blame game with Dr. Fauci as if he was the only one with a platform. There was a whole COVID task force, numerous health officials but their decisions never are questioned to the extent of Dr. Fauci.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
This is what an aerosol scientist said when asked about the statement in Dr. Fauci's email.

“Early on in the pandemic, prevention messaging was coming primarily from infectious disease experts who have little to no training in aerosol science,” Alex Huffman, an aerosol scientist at the University of Denver, told us in an email. “As the pandemic discussion has become more multidisciplinary, scientists and medical professionals of all descriptions have learned from one another, and realized that the narrow, disciplinary perspectives they may have started with were often insufficient to properly address the airborne nature of this particular disease.”

That includes aerosol scientists, who were able to add their expertise to the broader public health debate.

So, as Huffman explained to us, it’s true that the virus might be 0.1 or 0.2 microns and a paper or cloth mask wouldn’t filter something that small. But “viruses don’t fly out of your mouth by themselves. They are encased in droplets,” he said. Those droplets come from the lungs, nose or mouth and include proteins, salts and some viruses.

“It doesn’t matter how big the virus is, it matters how big the droplet is,” Huffman said.

While that may not have been widely understood by public health officials at the beginning of the pandemic, “to Dr. Fauci’s great credit,” Huffman said, “he changed his perspective, learned a little about aerosol physics, and started listening to a broader audience of experts, including aerosol scientists.”

Dr. Fauci is not an omnipotent or omniscient. In February 2020, were there aspects of SARS-COV-2 transmission that Dr. Fauci did not fully understand or appreciate the full significance of? He's said, yes. Not only in terms of aerosols but pre and asymptomatic transmission. When he wrote that email, he might have been truthful, but he was wrong. Leaning on his truthfulness in private communication as evidence of the accuracy of the science dismisses the possibility that, early on, his understanding of this specific science was accurate.

To discount the PPE shortages in the effect on messaging you would need to know when Dr. Fauci started evolving his thinking, and what the state of PPE availability was at that time. By April, CDC guidance had changed, so presumably the change in mask benefits was later in February or March. Was there not still PPE shortages at that time?

I get the feeling that people expect there was a savior in our midst. And if only they had been in charge things would be different. Instead of a lot of people, each with differing understanding of individual puzzle pieces, trying to put together guidance of what we needed to do, that would be effective AND adopted, in an evolving situation with so many others actively trying to make the case everyone was overreacting and anything was unnecessary.

Every couple months we do this blame game with Dr. Fauci as if he was the only one with a platform. There was a whole COVID task force, numerous health officials but their decisions never are questioned to the extent of Dr. Fauci.
And had he said any of that he never would have gotten half the blowback he has, but instead they went with “we lied because we wanted to make sure the health care personnel got them.”

As I’ve said in every post..l I don’t blame Fauci, he’s just the face that delivers the message and that message comes from a committee that has much more than only science in their decision making process. I’d love for Fauci to be unfiltered and just speak his scientific mind but we all know that isn’t happening.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
And had he said any of that he never would have gotten half the blowback he has, but instead they went with “we lied because we wanted to make sure the health care personnel got them.”

As I’ve said in every post..l I don’t blame Fauci, he’s just the face that delivers the message and that message comes from a committee that has much more than only science in their decision making process. I’d love for Fauci to be unfiltered and just speak his scientific mind but we all know that isn’t happening.
What makes you think that if they had recognized the benefits of mask usage correct initially, they wouldn't have still downplayed it in order to preserve the PPE?

Edit: I am treating the two elements as independent factors, while it seems like you are treating them as dependent... They only reference shortages because of effectiveness predictions. Instead of effectiveness was always going to be subordinate to availability.
 
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Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
What makes you think that if they had recognized the benefits of mask usage correct initially, they wouldn't have still downplayed it in order to preserve the PPE?

Theres a difference between downplaying it and outright saying they don’t work though. Had he said current evidence is masks don’t filter out the virus it would have had the same effect, but been much easier to pivot and say new evidence suggests they still don’t have a huge impact on preventing the virus from being inhaled but they do have a substantial impact on how far the virus is exhaled, so while masks may not prevent infection they can decrease transmission.

I guess as an adult I just wish our leaders, and those that represent them, would treat us as adults and not lie and distort the truth regardless of why they’re doing it.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Theres a difference between downplaying it and outright saying they don’t work though. Had he said current evidence is masks don’t filter out the virus it would have had the same effect, but been much easier to pivot and say new evidence suggests they still don’t have a huge impact on preventing the virus from being inhaled but they do have a substantial impact on how far the virus is exhaled, so while masks may not prevent infection they can decrease transmission.

I guess as an adult I just wish our leaders, and those that represent them, would treat us as adults and not lie and distort the truth regardless of why they’re doing it.
Again, he did advise for people who are sick to wear masks.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Theres a difference between downplaying it and outright saying they don’t work though. Had he said current evidence is masks don’t filter out the virus it would have had the same effect, but been much easier to pivot and say new evidence suggests they still don’t have a huge impact on preventing the virus from being inhaled but they do have a substantial impact on how far the virus is exhaled, so while masks may not prevent infection they can decrease transmission.

I guess as an adult I just wish our leaders, and those that represent them, would treat us as adults and not lie and distort the truth regardless of why they’re doing it.
He was supposed to consider how a personal email, almost one month before the first SARS-COV-2 case was confirmed in New York City (March 1), advising that a person didn't need a mask for her upcoming trip would be used over a year later? I guess you did expect that Dr. Fauci should be omniscient. It's one thing to wish things had gone differently, that we had more comprehensive information but the Monday morning quarterbacking has sometimes reached preposterous levels. Your expectations of what a person would consider and therefore caveat in a personal email would fall into the latter, IMO.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
He was supposed to consider how a personal email, almost one month before the first SARS-COV-2 case was confirmed in New York City (March 1), advising that a person didn't need a mask for her upcoming trip would be used over a year later? I guess you did expect that Dr. Fauci should be omniscient. It's one thing to wish things had gone differently, that we had more comprehensive information but the Monday morning quarterbacking has sometimes reached preposterous levels. Your expectations of what a person would consider and therefore caveat in a personal email would fall into the latter, IMO.

He said it publicly on 60 minutes in March 2020 also!

Dr Fauci says “There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

Not just him either… "There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, said at a media briefing in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday.

Also in March 2020… The U.S. surgeon general recently urged the public to “STOP BUYING MASKS!” “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!,” wrote Surgeon General Jerome Adams

The private comment just provides evidence that he was actually telling the truth when he publicly said it a month later.
 

Willmark

Well-Known Member
I’ll never change my mind that Fauci and the medical community made some statements early on that caused irreparable doubt about whether masks work or not, I suspect you’ll never change your mind that he, and they, didn’t. Let’s just agree to disagree.
Agreed.

The messaging early on was about preserving masks and PPE for the medical community which were in extremely short supply in the spring of 2020. Then low and behold enough becomes available and here we are.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I’ll never change my mind that Fauci and the medical community made some statements early on that caused irreparable doubt about whether masks work or not, I suspect you’ll never change your mind that he, and they, didn’t. Let’s just agree to disagree.
As with many things, Fauci would have been much better off saying "we don't have enough evidence to make a determination yet." My dislike of Fauci is no secret and it stems from the fact that before this whole thing became political, he would just make statements and come up with answers based on his opinion but he stated them as if they were facts.

I can trust somebody who says, "I don't know" and then gathers evidence and data and makes a statement a month later. I can not trust somebody who makes up an answer and then does a 180 a month later. That's not "how science works" as many people like to say. Science works by stating that a hypothesis IS a hypothesis first. The scientific method does not include stating your hypothesis as if it is the conclusion and then doing the studies or experiments after the fact.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
As with many things, Fauci would have been much better off saying "we don't have enough evidence to make a determination yet." My dislike of Fauci is no secret and it stems from the fact that before this whole thing became political, he would just make statements and come up with answers based on his opinion but he stated them as if they were facts.

I can trust somebody who says, "I don't know" and then gathers evidence and data and makes a statement a month later. I can not trust somebody who makes up an answer and then does a 180 a month later. That's not "how science works" as many people like to say. Science works by stating that a hypothesis IS a hypothesis first. The scientific method does not include stating your hypothesis as if it is the conclusion and then doing the studies or experiments after the fact.
Everything said in the earliest stages of anything that’s trying to be scientifically figured out is a hypothesis. That IS how science works. You are incorrect. The best minds come up with a hypothesis, then work to approve or disprove it through testing.. studies.. which in turn leads to peer reviews. That’s how we get from point A to point B.


Experiment and observation need logic inference to interpret the result to get the truth in it:

“Give out hypothesis or idea then verify it or falsify it experimentally is one way for scientific discovery if the experiment result or observed phenomenon is correctly interpreted by logical inference, in this method for discovery, and it is equally important to use logical inference based on natural laws to interpret the experimental and observational result to get the truth. without the logical validation, any experimental and observational result is still not the truth yet.

Apple fall is the true phenomenon, but gravity is the essence of the truth behind it. Red shift is the true phenomenon, but energy dissipation is the essence of the truth behind it.
That is what science is.


The scientific method is often thought of as a straightforward process: form a hypothesis, test or try to disprove the hypothesis through experimentation, and then revise the hypothesis. ... Science works on the basis that in many areas there will be always more to know.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Social distancing has to have an effect. I believe all indoor masks have an effect as well and I think combining the 2 has an even better effect.

I believed I was going to win the mega millions two weeks ago. Unfortunately, belief and reality don't always line up.
These are the not similar at all though. You either won or didn't win the mega millions. You didn't increase or decrease you amount of winning between nothing and the entire prize. It was an absolute binary outcome, you either won or not.

Social distancing isn't a binary absolute that prevents infection. It's a reduction function. Being 5 foot 11 inches away isn't "you'll get infected" and 6 foot 1 inch "not infected". The distance function increases or decreases the chances you'll get infected. Use the extremes, at 6 inches away right up in someone's face, the infection risk would be very high. At a mile away, 5,280 feet, the infection risk would be very low.

If you want to debate how the risk reduction curve is shaped, the slope it decreases at, if it's linear, exponential, or more complex, how the surrounding environment impacts the curve, sure those are all things that would change the risk reduction rate. But, saying there is no reduction is incorrect. Perhaps debate how much reduction is enough, where on the curve has enough reduction occurred. But, even then, there's still reduction prior to that point, which combined with other things may be enough in that context. Since it's not being done in isolation from everything else.

Likewise for masks, it's not a binary thing. It's also intertwined with distance, environment, how the virus travels not just it's absolute size, mask fit, material, design. Combinations of those have different impacts on the risk reduction curve. Depending on all those surrounding things, a poor mask that only gives a small reduction may be enough. Alternatively, depending on those things a much better mask may be required to get sufficient reduction.

None of these, or anything to do with COVID is an absolute. They're all things that reduce or increase. Even the vaccine isn't an absolute, it's just the largest most robust reduction possible.
 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
What they absolutely are though is clear reminders that there is a pandemic. They don’t let you ignore that situation.
So with tattooing a big C on your forehead.

Lots of people are willing to wear them when they think it protects themselves and others. I don’t know a single person wearing to wear one as a reminder.
 
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