Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Willmark]

Can I ask what reservations you have about the booster?

As I stated earlier it’s simply a matter of timing.

 

[correcaminos]

That's good you acted. On recent flights on United the staff several times on the intercom warned us the passengers non compliance of mask wearing with the exception of eating and drinking would be subject to penalties including being arrested at our destination airport. Fortunately we did not have any Karens acting out on the planes I was in.

We had a few on one flight. Unfortunately the flight attendants even said they didn't want to police it really and just said keep the mask up. I get why they don't want confrontations though. I also didn't care since it was low spread at the time.

I don't blame people for reporting either.

 

[marymarypoppins]

Probably because no one disputes it. Other than a couple trolls who make a controversial comment and then disappear no one here argues vaccines are bad. We argue masks and mandates but no regular posters actually argue vaccines are bad.

I am all for vaccines but I am beginning to wonder if this one is more of a therapeutic than vaccine. I am vaxxed and boosted and on round 2 of covid. I won't get another booster. When you get a measles vaccine you won't be contracting measles but the same is not holding true for coivd.

 

[JoeCamel]

I am all for vaccines but I am beginning to wonder if this one is more of a therapeutic than vaccine. I am vaxxed and boosted and on round 2 of covid. I won't get another booster. When you get a measles vaccine you won't be contracting measles but the same is not holding true for coivd.

You won't contract measles because almost everyone has been vaccinated not because you have an individual force field around you

 

[marymarypoppins]

You won't contract measles because almost everyone has been vaccinated not because you have an individual force field around you

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

 

[DisneyCane]

You won't contract measles because almost everyone has been vaccinated not because you have an individual force field around you

You won't contract measles because 2 doses of the MMR vaccine is 97% effective against measles. Even if nobody else was vaccinated you'd have a pretty low chance of contracting measles.

 

[Touchdown]

Today's NY Times numbers. The US is now up to 165 per 100k. NY is at 342, NJ is at 331 and Florida is at 263. NYC is at 457 and Essex County is at 505.

These number are horrible and increasing. However there was only a tiny increase in average cases in NY today, only 351 plus the actual number of cases for the second staight day is below the 7 day average. Therefore it may be possible that NY is now topping out.

In NYC more then 3% of the population was diagnosed with Covid in the past week per CDC. I’ll just let that sink in. I hope they are peaking, as that would mean it’s a 4-5 week wave as opposed to a 10-12 week wave that every other wave has been, and what modelers are still predicting. That would be really great news, but with the holidays complicating things we won’t know until next week.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

I understand your reservations but we need to follow the science. As it improves so will our protection. I know we are in this 2 years now but really that’s a short time. To have a vaccine that works in helping us not be hospitalized or become very sick, in most cases is a miracle when you think about it.
The shot now, with the demand low at this point takes a few minutes depending on where you get it. My wife and I got our booster in under 5 minutes. I’m sure if we need another shot it will be the same. Small amount of time for what it does.

As for the division and turmoil you mentioned, that’s true. It shouldn’t be that way. You would think people would want to work together to do the best for society, neighbors, family and friends. In the climate in our country over the last 20 years, I don’t know if we can ever get back to that. But, that doesn’t mean we have to stop trying. So let’s all get our shots… keep our families safe.. keep our local businesses busy with our money to help them out..keep doing the right things to lessen the amount of time this takes to get the right answers and possibly take care of this quicker then this is going now. Good things come to those who wait..and also do the right things.

 

[DisneyCane]

Regarding Omicron and hospitalizations, I don't think that "decoupled" is the right word to use as that would suggest that there is no direct relationship between infections and hospitalizations. I think the correct description is that the hospitalization rate is significantly lower for the Omicron variant waves. I don't know if this is due to the variant itself or a combination of the variant with vaccinations and protection from prior infections.

Looking at the CDC data for FL, the current seven day moving average is 54,394 cases and 1,223 daily new COVID-19 hospital admissions.

The last time there was a similar seven day moving average of daily new COVID-19 hospital admissions, it was 1,219 on 9/14 when the seven day moving average of cases was 11,838 in the Delta wave.

The hospitalization rate of documented cases in the current wave (Omicron dominant) is about 2.3%. In the last wave (Delta dominant) it was about 10.3%.

Doing the math, the hospitalization rate of the Omicron driven wave is 77.8% lower than it was for the Delta driven wave. This data jibes with statements from experts around the world.

Put another way, to get the same number of hospitalizations would take about 4.5 times the number of cases.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are far more undocumented infections with Omicron due to testing capacity constraints as well as people (like my business partner) with such mild symptoms that even if they strongly suspect COVID don't bother getting tested and just isolate for the recommended time period. If that anecdotal evidence mirrors reality it would mean that the number of infections required to overwhelm hospitals is much higher (perhaps 10 times or more ) in an Omicron driven wave than it was with a Delta driven wave.

The CDC does an estimate for influenza. For the 2018-2019 flu season they estimated 380,000 hospitalizations and 29 million symptomatic cases which calculates out to 1.3%. It's hard to compare to Omicron based on infections but it seems reasonable to say that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 causes a hospitalization rate that is about 2 or 3 times higher than the 2018-2019 mix of influenza. 2018-2019 was a pretty mild flu season but I didn't choose a year with a more virulent mix so I would have fewer posters accusing me of minimizing COVID.

 

[mmascari]

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

Immunization Schedules for 18 & Younger

View and print CDC recommended immunization schedules.

www.cdc.gov

Was it really 4 in less than 12 months? There's at least 4 on that chart that are 4 doses in less than 18 months. If you got J&J, the start was only 1 dose not 2 also. It all seems right in line with other vaccine schedules so far. At least not out of the ordinary.

The tetanus schedule is: 5-dose series at 2, 4, 6, 15–18 months, 4–6 years

And there's boosters after that too.

Starting before we know the entire schedule instead of waiting years to know it all was definitely the correct plan. We wouldn't have had anyone vaccinated at all yet and the impacts would be way worse.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I am all for vaccines but I am beginning to wonder if this one is more of a therapeutic than vaccine. I am vaxxed and boosted and on round 2 of covid. I won't get another booster. When you get a measles vaccine you won't be contracting measles but the same is not holding true for coivd.

The measles outbreak at Disneyland included vaccinated individuals.

Vaccines aren’t something that sits in you and stops the virus. They are practice but every exposure is a chance for the virus to get through. A big enough assault can overwhelm even the best prepared defense.

 

[DisneyCane]

In NYC more then 3% of the population was diagnosed with Covid in the past week per CDC. I’ll just let that sink in. I hope they are peaking, as that would mean it’s a 4-5 week wave as opposed to a 10-12 week wave that every other wave has been, and what modelers are still predicting. That would be really great news, but with the holidays complicating things we won’t know until next week.

In South Africa, the first noticeable uptick in the seven day average of cases at the beginning of the wave looks like it was on 11/18 and it peaked on 12/17. It's too early to tell how long the downslope will be to get back to the pre-wave level but the decreases from the peak were significant.

For NY it's hard to pinpoint the first signs of the Omicron uptick because it seems there was a bit of a Delta caused increase just prior. It looks to me like Omicron started to take hold around 12/13, so I'd expect the peak around 1/12 or so.

For FL, it seems like the Omicron uptick started in the same time frame (12/12 or 12/13) so I would expect a similar peak date. These predictions are based on following a similar curve to South Africa.

As for the division and turmoil you mentioned, that’s true. It shouldn’t be that way. You would think people would want to work together to do the best for society, neighbors, family and friends. In the climate in our country over the last 20 years, I don’t know if we can ever get back to that. But, that doesn’t mean we have to stop trying. So let’s all get our shots… keep our families safe.. keep our local businesses busy with our money to help them out..keep doing the right things to lessen the amount of time this takes to get the right answers and possibly take care of this quicker then this is going now. Good things come to those who wait..and also do the right things.

In response to the bolded, the division and turmoil over COVID is due to drastically different options on the definition of what is best. Some look at it completely from the perspective of whatever minimizes the number of COVID infections and deaths is what is "best." Some (like yours truly) consider the negative effect on the people's lives who won't ever have serious consequences (severe illness or death) from COVID (85%-90%+ of the population under a worst case scenario of every single person gets infected). People coming from my perspective don't think it is "best" to drastically alter life as we knew it in order to minimize the medical impact of COVID.

People like to label me as a "hoaxer" or a "COVID denier" or whatever but the reality is that I have a very different perspective than they do over what constitutes the "best" way to react to this virus.

 

[LittleBuford]

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

It is effective, though: it guards against severe illness. I wouldn’t let perfection be the enemy of good, especially when waiting for a vaccine that’s “fully effective” could lead to a worse outcome.

 

[Heppenheimer]

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

Most pediatric vaccine series require 2-5 doses, and even TDaP needs boosting throughout life. The adult pneumovax and shingles vaccines are multi-dose too. So, this isn't surprising.

 

[Heppenheimer]

True but I shouldn't have to take something four times in less than a year for it to work . I am beginning to think we should have maybe waited until it was fully effective. 'I honestly don't know what the right answer is but I am exhausted from all the division and turmoil this has caused.

Plus, we still don't have great treatments for many cancers. If you were diagnosed now, would you hold out for better treatments years down the line or take "good enough" now?

People are dying and overwhelming hospitals NOW. We need to do what we can NOW with the tools we have NOW.

 

[Hakunamatata]

Regarding Omicron and hospitalizations, I don't think that "decoupled" is the right word to use as that would suggest that there is no direct relationship between infections and hospitalizations. I think the correct description is that the hospitalization rate is significantly lower for the Omicron variant waves. I don't know if this is due to the variant itself or a combination of the variant with vaccinations and protection from prior infections.

Looking at the CDC data for FL, the current seven day moving average is 54,394 cases and 1,223 daily new COVID-19 hospital admissions.

The last time there was a similar seven day moving average of daily new COVID-19 hospital admissions, it was 1,219 on 9/14 when the seven day moving average of cases was 11,838 in the Delta wave.

The hospitalization rate of documented cases in the current wave (Omicron dominant) is about 2.3%. In the last wave (Delta dominant) it was about 10.3%.

Doing the math, the hospitalization rate of the Omicron driven wave is 77.8% lower than it was for the Delta driven wave. This data jibes with statements from experts around the world.

Put another way, to get the same number of hospitalizations would take about 4.5 times the number of cases.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are far more undocumented infections with Omicron due to testing capacity constraints as well as people (like my business partner) with such mild symptoms that even if they strongly suspect COVID don't bother getting tested and just isolate for the recommended time period. If that anecdotal evidence mirrors reality it would mean that the number of infections required to overwhelm hospitals is much higher (perhaps 10 times or more ) in an Omicron driven wave than it was with a Delta driven wave.

The CDC does an estimate for influenza. For the 2018-2019 flu season they estimated 380,000 hospitalizations and 29 million symptomatic cases which calculates out to 1.3%. It's hard to compare to Omicron based on infections but it seems reasonable to say that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 causes a hospitalization rate that is about 2 or 3 times higher than the 2018-2019 mix of influenza. 2018-2019 was a pretty mild flu season but I didn't choose a year with a more virulent mix so I would have fewer posters accusing me of minimizing COVID.

Dont worry. You will still be accused.

 

[JoeCamel]

People coming from my perspective don't think it is "best" to drastically alter life as we knew it in order to minimize the medical impact of COVID.

People like to label me as a "hoaxer" or a "COVID denier" or whatever but the reality is that I have a very different perspective than they do over what constitutes the "best" way to react to this virus.

Wow, Walk into an ER and let them know your "perspective".
Get back to us on how that works out.

 

[DisneyCane]

Wow, Walk into an ER and let them know your "perspective".
Get back to us on how that works out.

There is no response that is "best" for everybody. Who in the ER would you like me to give my perspective to? The countless people with mild cold-like symptoms from Omicron that are going there for no good reason?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

In South Africa, the first noticeable uptick in the seven day average of cases at the beginning of the wave looks like it was on 11/18 and it peaked on 12/17. It's too early to tell how long the downslope will be to get back to the pre-wave level but the decreases from the peak were significant.

For NY it's hard to pinpoint the first signs of the Omicron uptick because it seems there was a bit of a Delta caused increase just prior. It looks to me like Omicron started to take hold around 12/13, so I'd expect the peak around 1/12 or so.

For FL, it seems like the Omicron uptick started in the same time frame (12/12 or 12/13) so I would expect a similar peak date. These predictions are based on following a similar curve to South Africa.

In response to the bolded, the division and turmoil over COVID is due to drastically different options on the definition of what is best. Some look at it completely from the perspective of whatever minimizes the number of COVID infections and deaths is what is "best." Some (like yours truly) consider the negative effect on the people's lives who won't ever have serious consequences (severe illness or death) from COVID (85%-90%+ of the population under a worst case scenario of every single person gets infected). People coming from my perspective don't think it is "best" to drastically alter life as we knew it in order to minimize the medical impact of COVID.

People like to label me as a "hoaxer" or a "COVID denier" or whatever but the reality is that I have a very different perspective than they do over what constitutes the "best" way to react to this virus.

You are entitled,as is everyone to do what they think is “best”. Our opinions of it vary drastically and that’s ok. I don’t see the point of many of your posts as I’m sure it’s the same way with you reading others here.
I will always put someone’s health first before anything. Yes that means before economy and the ability to “ go about living my life” as many say here. My response to that is to go out and dump more of my money into local businesses. I order out a few times a week now compared to maybe one time before this started. I now go to a local mom and pop store hardware store instead of the local Home Depot. Made me realize I should have been doing these things before. My friend has a sandwich shop which all our neighbors support more then ever. He’s doing so good now that once every 2 weeks he donates a few hundred sandwiches to the local food banks. We shopped locally for all our Christmas giving this year with not one package bought from Amazon. Again, I’m not saying this is what to do but in my head I can do the right things when it comes to protected the community and also,at the same time, keep our local economy moving. In fact my buddy with his shop has done better the last 2 years then the prior 5. Everyone working together can make things work.

 

[mkt]

Most pediatric vaccine series require 2-5 doses, and even TDaP needs boosting throughout life. The adult pneumovax and shingles vaccines are multi-dose too. So, this isn't surprising.

Varicella is two-dose.