Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

Only in Covid times does someone with an open mind or mildly positive outlook have to apologize for it. Definitely interesting times.

I just feel like there are 2 "camps" in this. And the more firmly entrenched posters are in either camp, the less likely I am to read their posts. Which is why I continue reading yours.

Just understand that the reason for my encampment for this is math. The underlying math (not specific formulas) for numbers for viral growth is the same as for compound interest. People like money and believe in interest, but since 2020 people have been doubtful about similar math until after a lot of people were infected. The start of every wave has been met with “maybe it won’t be that bad,” and ends with regrets about underestimating the peak.

If the reason for concern from experts about this wave was coming from a place with more wiggle room… other than them working out the math, even sometimes with the assumption that it could be a milder form and the numbers still are more worrisome than I’ve seen them publicly speculate in earlier waves… I wouldn’t be this insistent. You think this is fun having people think what I’m sure they think about me? Go into the FP Genie thread and I’ll be all about the math part too. In this thread, early on, featured a lot of people arguing if the prediction of 60K dead from the first models had any basis. That’s how this feels. Like we’re back to March 2020 in that people can’t visualize how the math principles could result in high numbers. Only this time it’s generated by assumptions about what high vaccination and immunity can do to counter the rapid growth rate. There’s science in this, which is open to different theories, but at some point the competing elements coalesce around the same basic math principles.

Time is our friend for compound interest. It’s not our friend when the dollars turn into virus affected people. In general, waiting usually makes sense. For this specific set of circumstances, it puts things in motion that can’t be undone. Takes options off the table because the effects would come too late. With real outcomes that have real people wishing they had taken things more seriously earlier.

People shouldn’t have to apologize for believing in math principles either. Or for wanting to minimize not maximize the final numbers, even if they are never going to go to zero.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I just had a conversation about this with my spouse last night. In part because of here but also because of Trevor Noah stating he wanted to wait on scientists, not CEO of Moderna to know what the next step with Omicron is. Totally rational to me but some flipped out on him.

I've been wrong more than once in all this and at least I will admit it - though my thoughts were based on when scientists tried to learn and their educated guesses and hypotheses were wrong is all. Trying to follow science of the time in many cases. I've had both extremes here on this thread jump on me. If I'm wrong for following science then I don't know what to do. I have listened to science from the beginning and while sometimes they were flat out wrong, at least I wasn't blindly following either politics/one sided media (which as a true independent I avoid) or just a single group. One thing I have no tolerance for are anti-vaxxers or deniers, but the rest I do listen to.

I said above that there are gray areas to be sure. That's the truth of it. As we figure things out jumping to conclusions doesn't work. So I'll continue to listen to scientists for now. We may need to adjust, but it's the best we've got. Problem is filtering those who are trying to rile up either extreme. That can be hard... inciting fear on both sides is a huge way to grab followers.

So for now, get vaccinated. Get a booster if you can or especially if high risk. But have patience and not jump to scary. Despite what people try to claim this level of illness likely cannot thrive forever. Historically this is not the next step.

The great thing about science, unlike politics, is that self-correction is a built-in feature of the process.

One of the worst things about politics, though, is that when it mixes with any other discipline (science, economics, business, religion, entertainment), the needs of politics highjacks all other purposes.

 

[hopemax]

 

[Heppenheimer]

I always heard not until Feb/March...anyways, I don't think it is the 2 year old unvaccinated causing the spread...looking at you unvaccinated adults!

They're absolutely not driving the spread, but many of us with kids in that age bracket are still eagerly awaiting the approval nonetheless. I'll breath of huge sigh of relief, knowing that my 3 year old will have that added extra level of protection that he now lacks.

 

[matt9112]

Do you have some sort of plan to ramp up graduates? Because that’s part of the problem with RNs… the educational opportunity.

“ According to AACN’s report on 2019-2020 Enrollment and Graduations in Baccalaureate and Graduate Programs in Nursing, U.S. nursing schools turned away 80,407 qualified applicants from baccalaureate and graduate nursing programs in 2019 due to insufficient number of faculty, clinical sites, classroom space, and clinical preceptors, as well as budget constraints. Almost two-thirds of the nursing schools responding to the survey pointed to a shortage of faculty and/or clinical preceptors as a reason for not accepting all qualified applicants into their programs.”

In order to ramp up healthcare, we’re gonna need to ramp up higher education first. And that takes time, money and resources. I don’t have a problem with that, but I don’t have confidence in the rest of America. And it won’t happen overnight.

Humanity literally excels under pressure. With our feet to the fire. We legitimately invent and excel more. Not sure how your view of America potentially prevents that from occuring? Your right it takes time but money is a good motivator. You know capitalism and all. Places are going to be built and modified to turn out RNs like sugar cookies.

 

[correcaminos]

I always heard not until Feb/March...anyways, I don't think it is the 2 year old unvaccinated causing the spread...looking at you unvaccinated adults!

Unvaccinated adults are the bigger issue for tons of reasons. I do have a friend with 2 people in their house with breakthrough from their asymptomatic pre school kid. Though the only reason for knowing they had a break through was testing asymptatically due to known exposure (kid was exposed, tested kid and positive couple days after known exposure - family tested shortly after to get out of quarantine and then tested positive in 2 of 5 with no symptoms). So that's the spread I was thinking of. Not spread as much as adults who are everywhere really, but more small level.

I'm not as pressed for little ones, but understand more will breathe a sigh of relief. Of course more vaccinated the better for all IMO

 

[hopemax]

Humanity literally excels under pressure. With our feet to the fire. We legitimately invent and excel more. Not sure how your view of America potentially prevents that from occuring? Your right it takes time but money is a good motivator. You know capitalism and all. Places are going to be built and modified to turn out RNs like sugar cookies.

We’ll at some point people have to choose to be an RN. Otherwise schools sit empty, which means they don’t get built. Choice will be associated with pay scales and working conditions. My view is that employers will remain resistant to letting these elements rise to the height needed to actually pull enough people back into nursing be for fear of it eating into their profits. On the capital side, they will be motivated by money, but not be willing to loosen the purse to let that motivation trickle down to attract labor. So it won’t be as straight forward as the idealized portrayal of capitalism suggests.

 

[LittleBuford]

New York's workers must all have vaccine by 27 December

The city's mayor is introducing a vaccine mandate for all private sector employees from 27 December.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[danlb_2000]

This is patently false btw.

What is false?

 

[mmascari]

Humanity literally excels under pressure. With our feet to the fire. We legitimately invent and excel more. Not sure how your view of America potentially prevents that from occurring?

Counterpoint, have you been watching the vaccine adoption rate nation wide?

We're not exactly excelling.

We can and have excelled, it's just not a given.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[mkt]

We also don't know of the quality and suitability of it at completion. Lots of Communist China construction is tofu-dreg that is not durable, is composed of substandard materials and tends to prematurely decay or collapse. Smoke and mirrors show project.

pretty accurate - also, lack of maintenance once built is commonplace in China.

 

[Heppenheimer]

pretty accurate - also, lack of maintenance once built is commonplace in China.

"What is this maintenance of which you speak?"

 

[networkpro]

"What is this maintenance of which you speak?"
View attachment 605384

Alex : What is "deferred "

 

[networkpro]

Counterpoint, have you been watching the vaccine adoption rate nation wide?

We're not exactly excelling.

We can and have excelled, it's just not a given.

One country, have you seen the global vaccine hesitancy rate ?

 

[ArmoredRodent]

In other news, or rather, lack of news, for those waiting for the FDA decision on vaccination for little ones below age 5, I don't see a scheduled meeting on the advisory committee calendar.

I can report that my 3yo GS is due to get his second shot of his trial tomorrow. They are testing three different dosages and placebo. Thus, I would think results of this phase are at least a few weeks away. BTW, he had no significant reaction to the first shot, although he did have the usual reaction to the sugar he got from his snacks and rewards:

 

[Andrew C]

I can report that my 3yo GS is due to get his second shot of his trial tomorrow. They are testing three different dosages and placebo. Thus, I would think results of this phase are at least a few weeks away. BTW, he had no significant reaction to the first shot, although he did have the usual reaction to the sugar he got from his snacks and rewards:

I used m&ms for my 3 year old when I took her for her flu shot. She was still crying as she shoved them into her mouth.

 

[correcaminos]

I can report that my 3yo GS is due to get his second shot of his trial tomorrow. They are testing three different dosages and placebo. Thus, I would think results of this phase are at least a few weeks away. BTW, he had no significant reaction to the first shot, although he did have the usual reaction to the sugar he got from his snacks and rewards:

Huge thanks to your GS and their parents! This totally made me laugh though.

 

[Nubs70]

The virus can mutate in anyone, BUT…

Data has shown that unvaccinated people are 6x more likely of getting the virus than vaccinated people. That’s alone causes a 600% increase in the chance that the unvaxxed cause a mutation.

AND… data shows vaccinated people recover faster. So if a sick person is replicating a million virus a day and the vaxxed person is only sick for 2 days vs the unvaxxed for 6 days it’s a massive decrease in possibility one of their virus will have a mutation.

Say you have 100 vaccinated people and 100 unvaccinated and 2 of the vaccinated get sick and 12 of the unvaccinated get sick (6x more likely). At a million replications a day you now have 2 million chances of a mutation among those 100 vaxxed people and 12 million chances among this 100 unvaxxed people per day.

The vaxxed people will recover in about 2 days, so 2 million replications x 2 days is 4 million chances at a mutation. The unvaxxed will recover in about 6 days, so 12 million replication x 6 days is 72 million chances at a mutation.

So although the mutation could happen in anyone it’s 18x more likely to happen in the unvaccinated population.

While the percentages do point to the unvaxxed, the shear number of mutations involved in vaxxed persons does not rule them out. Any guess on the number of replications it takes for a mutation to evolve? It just takes the right mutation in the right person to create something new.

 

[lazyboy97o]

While the percentages do point to the unvaxxed, the shear number of mutations involved in vaxxed persons does not rule them out. Any guess on the number of replications it takes for a mutation to evolve? It just takes the right mutation in the right person to create something new.

The shear number of mutations is greater in the unvaccinated. Being vaccinated doesn’t cause mutations, replication causes mutations.