Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

never mind, I don't want the onslaught!

Too late! I saw it.

Endemic means the virus continues to circulate, which includes mutation risks. This is why a bunch of evolutionary biology people are pushing back against the accepted narrative that viruses always mutate to become less virulent. It was something someone observed a long time ago against syphilis, I think, and a few other things. But ignores what happens with other viruses (I can't remember which ones people said). But it has been repeated so often that people accept it as a given, when it's not. We know some cold & flu seasons are worse than others, so it will likely be with COVID. Every once in awhile a nasty one will pop up and bite people who don't have immunity (young kids who have never been exposed) or have a weaker immune response (immunocompromised and older). The former, should hopefully be able to overcome it... the latter, boosters are a legitimate possibility. Once we have better information about T&B-cell response and guidelines for titers.

So at the risk of invoking more onslaught at me, why I warned about propagating misinformation. This is a different word, btw, than disinformation which is more synonymous to "lies." Mis - is just wrong / inaccurate without the element of intent. We're all Disney people, we know how often CMs and guests repeat stuff we know is wrong. We don't accuse them of lying. But we do want them to share accurate information.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

More mild would be great. It would give our hospital staff a much-needed breather. But just because one strain ends up being mild doesn't mean the next one will follow the same pattern. We want to give this virus the least opportunity to replicate as possible, so that we don't ever see a Π variant.

Although I admit, having a Π variant enter the lexicon would probably result in some interesting English language usage.

Doesn’t this all come back to cells and what kind of long term resistance they offer though?

If a mild case can infect huge numbers of people (without killing them) and leave them with B cells and T cells that can fight the next variant isn’t that still a good thing? (Relatively speaking)

The risks of another variant happening increases with another wave but more variants kind of feel inevitable at this point. It felt like we were so close before Delta hit, then it felt like we were getting close and now Omicron is hitting. I guess I’m just happy the early O reports are sounding more mild than Delta because there was a 50/50 chance the next variant could have been more severe.

 

[LittleBuford]

No parties for me this year.

Nearly 70 Spanish medics Covid positive after Christmas party

The outbreak among ICU staff in Málaga is believed to have started at a Christmas party last week.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Ayla]

No parties for me this year.

Nearly 70 Spanish medics Covid positive after Christmas party

The outbreak among ICU staff in Málaga is believed to have started at a Christmas party last week.

www.bbc.co.uk

DH's company cancelled their Christmas party for the second year in a row back in October.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Doesn’t this all come back to cells and what kind of long term resistance they offer though?

If a mild case can infect huge numbers of people (without killing them) and leave them with B cells and T cells that can fight the next variant isn’t that still a good thing? (Relatively speaking)

The risks of another variant happening increases with another wave but more variants kind of feel inevitable at this point. It felt like we were so close before Delta hit, then it felt like we were getting close and now Omicron is hitting. I guess I’m just happy the early O reports are sounding more mild than Delta because there was a 50/50 chance the next variant could have been more severe.

I'm scared about this next variant now....The pandemic will never ends.

 

[LittleBuford]

And speaking of Christmas parties:

No 10 staff joke in leaked recording about Christmas party they later denied | ITV News

ITV News has obtained a leaked video showing Downing Street staff laughing about a party which was allegedly held in Number 10 last Christmas. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Disgraceful liars and hypocrites.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

No parties for me this year.

Nearly 70 Spanish medics Covid positive after Christmas party

The outbreak among ICU staff in Málaga is believed to have started at a Christmas party last week.

www.bbc.co.uk

The good news is they are all showing no symptoms.

Had they not been medical professionals who are tested regularly they wouldn’t even know they had it.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'm scared about this next variant now....The pandemic will never ends.

Be careful (wash hands, etc) but don’t be afraid, so far it’s looking more mild that Delta, we’re in a much better spot now than we were 4 months ago.

If you’re vaccinated you’ll be fine. Enjoy life and don’t let it worry you.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Doesn’t this all come back to cells and what kind of long term resistance they offer though?

If a mild case can infect huge numbers of people (without killing them) and leave them with B cells and T cells that can fight the next variant isn’t that still a good thing? (Relatively speaking)

The whole way the virus can mutate to “evade the vaccine” applies to “natural” immunity as well. The virus can mutate such that it is not recognized by the body.

 

[Nubs70]

The good news is they are all showing no symptoms.

Had they not been medical professionals who are tested regularly they wouldn’t even know they had it.

That is because the vaccine is safe and effective relative to hospitalization and death.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The whole way the virus can mutate to “evade the vaccine” applies to “natural” immunity as well. The virus can mutate such that it is not recognized by the body.

It can but will it?

The vaccines were developed for Alpha and Beta but were very affective against Delta.

So far they have offered good protection against the variants. Even in the post above, about the 70 vaccinated health care professionals who tested positive for Omicron, they are all asymptomatic. Is that proof of how mild Omicron is or proof our vaccines are working against severe cases of Omicron? Time will tell.

Maybe I’m being optimistically naive but until a variant breaks immunity (whether natural or vaccine based) I’m going to continue to trust it. (What other choice do we have?) I got my booster less than 2 weeks ago, in my mind I’m good for at least six more months.

 

[hopemax]

It can but will it?

The vaccines were developed for Alpha and Beta but were very affective against Delta.

So far they have offered good protection against the variants. Even in the post above, about the 70 vaccinated health care professionals who tested positive for Omicron, they are all asymptomatic. Is that proof of how mild Omicron is or proof our vaccines are working against severe cases of Omicron? Time will tell.

Maybe I’m being optimistically naive but until a variant breaks immunity (whether natural or vaccine based) I’m going to continue to trust it. (What other choice do we have?) I got my booster less than 2 weeks ago, in my mind I’m good for at least six more months.

In South Africa only 25% of people are vaccinated, but case numbers are escalating quickly. So Omicron has to be breaking through natural infection derived immunity. The infection rates in low vax/high natural places vs high vax/lower natural places and the outcomes will be the subject of several studies in several months and presumably be used in the debates about which is better for months after that.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

In South Africa only 25% of people are vaccinated, but case numbers are escalating quickly. So Omicron has to be breaking through natural infection derived immunity. The infection rates in low vax/high natural places vs high vax/lower natural places and the outcomes will be the subject of several studies in several months and presumably be used in the debates about which is better for months after that.

100% agree

Maybe I should have been more specific to breaking through and causing severe cases. I know it’s a controversial position but I honestly don’t care if I get a mild case of Covid, I only care if I end up with lasting affects, in the hospital, or dead.

 

[hopemax]

100% agree

Maybe I should have been more specific to breaking through and causing severe cases. I know it’s a controversial position but I honestly don’t care if I get a mild case of Covid, I only care if I end up with lasting affects, in the hospital, or dead.

The unresolved issue is that the mild cases are being caveated that it's in young and/or vaccinated/previously infected individuals. The money question will be when immune naïve especially (neither vaccinated or previously infected), 60+ year old, obese men (more than women) are infected with Omicron what happens? That may not be as large of a concern in South Africa, but in the UK and the US it will be.

 

[BrianLo]

While I am certain the numbers are under-reported, a place like South Africa has only documented less than 5% of their population having had any form of COVID. The noise about any location having high natural immunity is just wishful thinking. Natural immunity is exceedingly slow unless you hit on a virus like Varicella.

Vaccination is exceedingly fast.

 

[hopemax]

So first estimate of neutralization activity against Omicron is in. 40x drop vs original (Delta was 3.9x). A whole lot of people are going to freak out and throw their eggs in the “mild Omicron” basket. This does not equal 40x less vaccine effectiveness. If you read my earlier post, given the reported infections in people with immunity are mild, if it holds up, it should provide evidence the T&B cells are doing their job. Which has positive implications outside of Omicron.



This is obviously not ideal, but it’s not the same freak out level as the math inferred by increased transmission rates. So in case anyone was wondering, yes, I am still worried for everyone’s communities about that.

 

[disneygeek90]

So first estimate of neutralization activity against Omicron is in. 40x drop vs original (Delta was 3.9x). A whole lot of people are going to freak out and throw their eggs in the “mild Omicron” basket. This does not equal 40x less vaccine effectiveness. If you read my earlier post, given the reported infections in people with immunity are mild, if it holds up, it should provide evidence the T&B cells are doing their job. Which has positive implications outside of Omicron.



This is obviously not ideal, but it’s not the same freak out level as the math inferred by increased transmission rates. So in case anyone was wondering, yes, I am still worried for everyone’s communities about that.

 

[hopemax]

Omicron is going to infect many people, and pop positive tests if they are tested. But your immune system primed by vaccination or previous infection, still has your back against severe outcomes.

If you aren’t vaccinated and haven’t got sick from COVID before… jury is still out.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I thought the exact same thing.

I googled it and the simple version is it appears Omicron may be as much as 10x more resistant to the vaccines antibodies than Delta was (not 10x resistance to the vaccine, just the antibodies) it didn’t mention anything about mild vs severe cases though, the report was also based on 12 double vaccinated people (who weren’t boosted) so it’s a very early report based on a small sample size.

Does that sound about right hopemax? this is beyond my comprehension.

MSN

 

[JoeCamel]

Maybe I’m being optimistically naive but until a variant breaks immunity (whether natural or vaccine based) I’m going to continue to trust it. (What other choice do we have?) I got my booster less than 2 weeks ago, in my mind I’m good for at least six more months.

I'm boosted too so I feel fairly protected but I am in an area where the numbers are exploding. It has a low vax rate and most around here act like there is nothing going on. Including business and government offices. People coughing and clearing their throats, high smoking rate so hard to tell but the numbers are up 200% the last two weeks. Coming from Florida the absolute numbers are not huge but the rate of change (not using that delta word here) is like January in Florida.
So I wear ummm - pants everytime I enter a business and I do wear it in restaurants.
I do what I can and will continue to do so until. We have been through too much and thought we were on the downhill slide before only to find us back with a new player. I want it over but can see the next few years SARS-COVID-19 will be circulating around the world and will be in the headlines so I am resigned to do what I can for as long as it takes.
I wish this was more like hemorrhagic fever, that scares the beejezzus out of people and they do what ever it takes to kill it.