So Omicron... here is my concern... the "people who know stuff" saw the initial reports and got very concerned. The media took it and dialed it up to 20, so then other people started trying to dial the panic back and so now what people are *hearing* is Omicron isn't a big enough deal for people to do anything. Problem is, what if Omicron really is a big deal? Now that you've told people to not panic, will they even listen to you at all when you start telling them that there is some serious stuff going on and people should temper their holiday plans for another year? No they won't. And everyone will be all shocked again when bad stuff happens. Because now preliminary stuff is coming out and it's not good.
I've posted a bunch of stuff by Trevor Bedford, who is doing a lot of the work on the genomic side of things. And he retweeted this thread. This person's preliminary number crunching for Omicron is that increased transmissibility can not account for the steep rise in cases in Southern African countries. In South Africa, .39% of the population has already died, that happens when a huge portion of the country has already been infected. When that happens evolutionary pressure turns from transmissibility to immune escape. And since we're talking Africa which has lower vax numbers, we are talking about natural immunity escape. Bottom line, his napkin numbers are an R0 increase from 6 for Delta to 8.45 for Omicron. Which, if you do the associated math, leaves reinfection rates at potentially 4.8X Delta.
Second, the one that the media has picked up on... researchers that had previously calculated re-infection for previous waves, updated their findings for Omicron and calculated 2.4X (some reports are rounding up to 3X) reinfection rate over Delta. But they did not have access to patient vaccination status to evaluate natural vs vaccine derived immunity. They also point out the largest group of people re-infected had been infected with Delta, so their primary infection is fairly recent and people are still getting re-infected.
So the point... you all can decide if you would rather have an idea of the wave that's heading this way, and if there is anyone in your circle that you need to start thinking about being careful with again due to their individual health concerns, make sure your protection is as good as possible by getting boosted... Or decide to stay on the "no changes" path until more data comes in which may be too late to prevent your vulnerable person becoming a statistic depending on which part of the US gets hit first, and local vax levels. A bunch of people have placed their bets that their previous infection is good enough. We're going to find out. So far vaccinated individuals are fairing okay in terms of severe outcomes, so vaccination does have a purpose to increase the odds. Too soon to know what will happen with people who have been boosted. But in the US, we have a lot of older people, and as people love to point out a lot of people of all ages with significant comorbidities, so will that hold up when these people start getting exposed? We will also see.