DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that the Israeli data is 100% Pfizer's vaccine. There isn't any similar good data for Moderna or J&J. The big question will be if the boosted vaccine wanes at the same rate. If it does, there is no chance to get a high percentage of people to get a COVID shot every 6 months. Yearly, you might get close to the uptake as the flu shot but a much higher percentage of people get moderate side effects to the mRNA COVID vaccines that they don't want to experience.I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.
We now have an even better sense of just how much it really does wane and how much extra protection could be provided by boosters?
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Unfortunately, we are making a rather weak effort to distribute boosters in the US. I see many people claiming that we have seen the last significant wave of Covid.
Sadly, I fear they are wrong. I believe we are just at the beginning of a winter surge, especially in colder states. The surge is starting in the coldest states, and it will expand as more states become colder. Even highly vaccinated states.
Just look at Vermont, which has about the best vaccination in the country:
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There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death. And further new treatments are quickly arriving. So a winter 2021 surge will be far less deadly than the winter 2020 surge.
But there is a surge coming to the Northern part of the country, and while deaths shouldn't be as bad as winter 2020, deaths will still increase significantly. I'll note in New York, daily deaths are already *higher* than they were in mid November 2020. NY is currently averaging 42 deaths per day. As of November 10, 2020, New York was averaging 23 deaths per day.
IOW, this isn't over.
My mom, who is at least as afraid of COVID as the most fearful in this thread and probably more (which is saying something) had such a bad reaction to both dose #2 and the booster of Pfizer that she said she will never get that shot again.
Your final statement is certainly correct. COVID will be around at some, not insignificant, level for a very long time. Likely the rest of our lives. Hopefully between vaccinations and treatments it can be kept mostly at bay but it's never going away.