Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.
We now have an even better sense of just how much it really does wane and how much extra protection could be provided by boosters?

View attachment 599770

Unfortunately, we are making a rather weak effort to distribute boosters in the US. I see many people claiming that we have seen the last significant wave of Covid.
Sadly, I fear they are wrong. I believe we are just at the beginning of a winter surge, especially in colder states. The surge is starting in the coldest states, and it will expand as more states become colder. Even highly vaccinated states.
Just look at Vermont, which has about the best vaccination in the country:

View attachment 599772

There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death. And further new treatments are quickly arriving. So a winter 2021 surge will be far less deadly than the winter 2020 surge.
But there is a surge coming to the Northern part of the country, and while deaths shouldn't be as bad as winter 2020, deaths will still increase significantly. I'll note in New York, daily deaths are already *higher* than they were in mid November 2020. NY is currently averaging 42 deaths per day. As of November 10, 2020, New York was averaging 23 deaths per day.

IOW, this isn't over.

Keep in mind that the Israeli data is 100% Pfizer's vaccine. There isn't any similar good data for Moderna or J&J. The big question will be if the boosted vaccine wanes at the same rate. If it does, there is no chance to get a high percentage of people to get a COVID shot every 6 months. Yearly, you might get close to the uptake as the flu shot but a much higher percentage of people get moderate side effects to the mRNA COVID vaccines that they don't want to experience.

My mom, who is at least as afraid of COVID as the most fearful in this thread and probably more (which is saying something) had such a bad reaction to both dose #2 and the booster of Pfizer that she said she will never get that shot again.

Your final statement is certainly correct. COVID will be around at some, not insignificant, level for a very long time. Likely the rest of our lives. Hopefully between vaccinations and treatments it can be kept mostly at bay but it's never going away.

 

[havoc315]

Keep in mind that the Israeli data is 100% Pfizer's vaccine. There isn't any similar good data for Moderna or J&J. The big question will be if the boosted vaccine wanes at the same rate. If it does, there is no chance to get a high percentage of people to get a COVID shot every 6 months. Yearly, you might get close to the uptake as the flu shot but a much higher percentage of people get moderate side effects to the mRNA COVID vaccines that they don't want to experience.

My mom, who is at least as afraid of COVID as the most fearful in this thread and probably more (which is saying something) had such a bad reaction to both dose #2 and the booster of Pfizer that she said she will never get that shot again.

Your final statement is certainly correct. COVID will be around at some, not insignificant, level for a very long time. Likely the rest of our lives. Hopefully between vaccinations and treatments it can be kept mostly at bay but it's never going away.

Data I've seen suggests JNJ is less effective to begin with, and over time. Moderna doesn't wane to the same degree as Pfizer.

I do believe we will need an annual booster during "Covid season." Not every six months, but every year.

You bring up a valid point about the side effects -- The booster knocked me out of service for 24 hours. And that might certainly discourage uptake.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Where? https://epi.ufl.edu/covid-19-resour...year-projections-for-covid-19-in-florida.html

Oh dear…is that what Harvard thinks?

I hope they’re right…but the metrics are so optimistic outside of the swamp

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.
We now have an even better sense of just how much it really does wane and how much extra protection could be provided by boosters?

View attachment 599770

Unfortunately, we are making a rather weak effort to distribute boosters in the US. I see many people claiming that we have seen the last significant wave of Covid.
Sadly, I fear they are wrong. I believe we are just at the beginning of a winter surge, especially in colder states. The surge is starting in the coldest states, and it will expand as more states become colder. Even highly vaccinated states.
Just look at Vermont, which has about the best vaccination in the country:

View attachment 599772

There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death. And further new treatments are quickly arriving. So a winter 2021 surge will be far less deadly than the winter 2020 surge.
But there is a surge coming to the Northern part of the country, and while deaths shouldn't be as bad as winter 2020, deaths will still increase significantly. I'll note in New York, daily deaths are already *higher* than they were in mid November 2020. NY is currently averaging 42 deaths per day. As of November 10, 2020, New York was averaging 23 deaths per day.

IOW, this isn't over.

Oh why not?

vaccines provide 13x the protection against infection…20 times against serious affliction/death

vaccinated vs un now directly correlates to “records” they should not…which figures

if there is yet another “dead cat bounce”…it will be due to one thing…but blamed on another.

Vaccine boosters should be pushed…right now. Shut up and arms out…but they’re not gonna do it.

 

[havoc315]

Oh why not?

vaccines provide 13x the protection against infection…20 times against serious affliction/death

vaccinated vs un now directly correlates to “records” they should not…which figures

if there is yet another “dead cat bounce”…it will be due to one thing…but blamed on another.

Vaccine boosters should be pushed…right now. Shut up and arms out…but they’re not gonna do it.

It's not over because thousands of people are dropping dead.

It appears we have no choice but to "learn to live with it" to a large degree. But smart pragmatic measures can still reduce death. And yes, the single best tool we have remains vaccination (and boosters).

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I said this in July, I was heavily criticized for suggesting that the vaccines wane over time and that boosters would become necessary.

So it is important to boost. Unfortunately, even once boosters are fully approved for all, there has been so much muddled messaging about boosters, that I suspect adoption of boosters will be fairly low.

I was just reading an article on why cases are rising in New Mexico again, despite having one of the countries highest vaccination rates, and the conclusions are there’s still too many unvaccinated (30%), the state demographics include large extended families with lots of (currently) unvaccinated kids, and unfortunately that the vaccines appear to be waning.

Now that 5-12 year olds are approved for the vaccine that should have a huge impact on the first two reasons but the third is very troubling.

I’m still optimistic we can beat this without another big wave, especially with kids eligible now, but boosters are looking more necessary to do it.

 

[DisneyCane]

Oh dear…is that what Harvard thinks?

I hope they’re right…but the metrics are so optimistic outside of the swamp

They seem to have been pretty accurate based upon their charts.

Vaccine boosters should be pushed…right now. Shut up and arms out…but they’re not gonna do it.

Go tell my mom "shut up and arms out" for her next booster after having 36 hours of an elevated heart rate (up to 179 for a few hours), continuous afib and severe chills from this one.

 

[havoc315]

Go tell my mom "shut up and arms out" for her next booster after having 36 hours of an elevated heart rate (up to 179 for a few hours), continuous afib and severe chills from this one.

Yes --- Mom_of_DisneyCane, arms out. Try to schedule your booster where you can take the next 36 hours easy.

I had a pretty significant reaction to my booster as well. It's actually a pretty normal and expected reaction, as it triggers an inflammatory response.
Let's remember, it's nothing compared to how inoculations used to be done; the main reason Washington's troops were miserable at Valley Forge wasn't the cold, it's because they were recovering from inoculation.

 

[correcaminos]

Yes --- Mom_of_DisneyCane, arms out. Try to schedule your booster where you can take the next 36 hours easy.

I had a pretty significant reaction to my booster as well. It's actually a pretty normal and expected reaction, as it triggers an inflammatory response.
Let's remember, it's nothing compared to how inoculations used to be done; the main reason Washington's troops were miserable at Valley Forge wasn't the cold, it's because they were recovering from inoculation.

How about this, if someone has a more atypical reaction to a vaccine they talk with doctors for next step. I'm known for being a huge vaccine person but even I won't go this far. If someone had a legit severe reaction forcing is wrong. They've done their part and no way would a doctor push if it isn't safe to do. We're not talking just a feeling run down for a day or so. Some are more serious.

 

[mmascari]

I was just reading an article on why cases are rising in New Mexico again, despite having one of the countries highest vaccination rates, and the conclusions are there’s still too many unvaccinated (30%),

This is a problem with lots of the reporting and the different graphs we look at. They're all comparative and not some absolute measure.

From the CDC site:
62.6% of population fully vaccinated.
73.4% of 12+ fully vaccinated.
74.9% of 18+ fully vaccinated.

That may be a higher vaccination rate in the country, but it's not "high" as a stand alone number. That 62.6% isn't even the 70% theorized for Alpha much less near the 85% theorized for Delta.

It's higher than all it's neighbors, but it's not high enough in the sense of the vaccine dropping the COVID impact to flu level impacts. So, 62.6% is way better than say Idaho 44.4%. Not as good at Connecticut at 71.1%. For case counts CT is trending down, but it's not back to single digits per 100K yet. Because while 71.1% is better, it is still not good enough. We probably need over 80% or 85% to get to "good enough".

FL is at 60.2%, not far behind NM. But, then, they've tried to infect as many as possible too, so the FL effective rate might actually be high enough to drive future impacts to flu levels. (That's what I'm telling myself as we plan our trip.)

Until we crest the tipping point of enough people vaccinated, the reduced impact isn't going to be very dramatic. Whatever that tipping point is.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[havoc315]

How about this, if someone has a more atypical reaction to a vaccine they talk with doctors for next step. I'm known for being a huge vaccine person but even I won't go this far. If someone had a legit severe reaction forcing is wrong. They've done their part and no way would a doctor push if it isn't safe to do. We're not talking just a feeling run down for a day or so. Some are more serious.

I never said FORCE anybody. And yes, people should always talk to their doctor.
I'm not talking about feeling "run down." I had severe aches and chills as well as fever. My muscles were so sore that I could barely move for a day. Of the people I know who have gotten boosters, about half have had similarly severe responses -- Like a pretty severe flu for 24-36 hours.
So people should feel free to seek reassurance from the doctor that such reactions are normal.

So yes, arms out, get the booster. Go ahead and talk to you doctor about the safest way to do so. About what side-effects are normal and what side effects should be concerning.
Even with boosters, actual dangerous side effects are extremely rare. Serious and severe 24-hour side effects are extremely common. If that were to become an excuse against boosters, then nobody would get them.
But dangerous side effects are extremely rare.

Selected Adverse Events Reported after COVID-19 Vaccination

Rare instances of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccinations have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I never said FORCE anybody. And yes, people should always talk to their doctor.
I'm not talking about feeling "run down." I had severe aches and chills as well as fever. My muscles were so sore that I could barely move for a day. Of the people I know who have gotten boosters, about half have had similarly severe responses -- Like a pretty severe flu for 24-36 hours.
So people should feel free to seek reassurance from the doctor that such reactions are normal.

So yes, arms out, get the booster. Go ahead and talk to you doctor about the safest way to do so. About what side-effects are normal and what side effects should be concerning.
Even with boosters, actual dangerous side effects are extremely rare. Serious and severe 24-hour side effects are extremely common. If that were to become an excuse against boosters, then nobody would get them.
But dangerous side effects are extremely rare.

Selected Adverse Events Reported after COVID-19 Vaccination

Rare instances of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccinations have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

www.cdc.gov

Bingo.

Can we just understand at this point, that when someone says "everyone should get vaccinated", they are aware that there will always be some legitimate exceptions? We shouldn't have to add a disclaimer to the sentiment every time.

 

[MisterPenguin]

There is good news: Even unboosted vaccination provides good protection against hospitalization and death.

And that's the takeaway from the video I just posted.

One needs to look at what you want the vaccine to do...

Keep you out of the hospital and dying? The current unboosted vaccines do that very well with no major 'waning.'

Keep you from testing positive for a breakthrough? The current unboosted vaccines do seem to be waning, but, we just had a more contagious variant in Delta.

As long as the current vaccine is providing excellent protection from hospitalization and death, I'm not going to get boosted. There are people around the world who need that shot more than me.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They seem to have been pretty accurate based upon their charts.

Go tell my mom "shut up and arms out" for her next booster after having 36 hours of an elevated heart rate (up to 179 for a few hours), continuous afib and severe chills from this one.

And what happened in the 37th hour?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And that's the takeaway from the video I just posted.

One needs to look at what you want the vaccine to do...

Keep you out of the hospital and dying? The current unboosted vaccines do that very well with no major 'waning.'

Keep you from testing positive for a breakthrough? The current unboosted vaccines do seem to be waning, but, we just had a more contagious variant in Delta.

As long as the current vaccine is providing excellent protection from hospitalization and death, I'm not going to get boosted. There are people around the world who need that shot more than me.

Everyone want to go to Epcot??

ok…there is zero reason why everyone not immunocompromised or under 12 should not be vaccinated in the US. None.

“I want normal”…well we predictably have proven we can’t handle it. No excuses.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Bingo.

Can we just understand at this point, that when someone says "everyone should get vaccinated", they are aware that there will always be some legitimate exceptions? We shouldn't have to add a disclaimer to the sentiment every time.

But you do…because has become a moronic Braintangle of stuff that has zero to do with the actual health stuff.

 

[havoc315]

And that's the takeaway from the video I just posted.

One needs to look at what you want the vaccine to do...

Keep you out of the hospital and dying? The current unboosted vaccines do that very well with no major 'waning.'

There is some waning. Not to the same extent as for infection.

Keep you from testing positive for a breakthrough? The current unboosted vaccines do seem to be waning, but, we just had a more contagious variant in Delta.

It's not just "testing positive." We are talking about symptomatic cases. And be careful for the definition of "severe cases." Cases that may make you have difficulty breathing and confined to your home for a couple weeks are typically not classified as "severe."

As long as the current vaccine is providing excellent protection from hospitalization and death, I'm not going to get boosted. There are people around the world who need that shot more than me.

That last point is a common false perception. To the extent we had a finite supply of transferable vaccines that could just be shifted to parts of the world with more need, then yes -- That single shot would do more good being a first dose to someone in a 3rd world country than being a booster to someone in the US.

But the distributed doses in the US can't just be sent elsewhere. We have states and pharmacies throwing expiring doses into the garbage. So the reality is, the booster you pass up isn't going to someone else in the world, it's just going into the garbage.

 

[mmascari]

One needs to look at what you want the vaccine to do...

Keep you out of the hospital and dying? The current unboosted vaccines do that very well with no major 'waning.'

Keep you from testing positive for a breakthrough? The current unboosted vaccines do seem to be waning, but, we just had a more contagious variant in Delta.

So, if you are likely to benefit more by reducing risk because you have some condition that raises your risk in general, then a booster makes sense. But, if you're more average and don't have any increased risk factors then it's less (or not at all) necessary.

Those risk increases could be health related, or they could be environmental. Say you swim in a pool of COVID every day. A booster would be a good idea. Say you work from home, have limited interactions, and are super healthy, then not as much.

That looks like it lines right up with the recommendations from the CDC/FDA to me.

As far as future boosters go. It's not like we get a Tdap every year. We'll know if COVID needs one every year, every 5, every 10, or it's done when we know. Nobody is going to wait the 10 years to know now, before getting the first dose, that would be silly.

What we do know and can say with authority is that even a less effective vaccine is still plenty effective and good enough if the community spread is low enough. The vaccine still works best when it barely has to work at all. Get the current spread low enough and nobody will need more boosters after that.


What we also know (at least a more cynical take) is that it's in the manufacturers best interest if everyone got a booster. Instant sales increase. No nuance on if it's really needed or not, erroring on the side of getting an extra dose both doesn't hurt the recipient and increases sales. It may just not help that much.

 

[DCBaker]

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