Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

I was curious on the ages of the deaths so far from Covid-19. I was wondering if that was accounting for some of the hiring problems that businesses have faced. While it might have a very small impact, its not the smoking gun I thought it might be.

COVID-19 deaths by age U.S. 2023 | Statista

Between the beginning of January 2020 and June 14, 2023, of the 1,134,641 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 307,169 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older.

www.statista.com

View attachment 599290

That would be 183,000 people clearly in the working age groups, and probably some from the 65 and over. Not a huge number but probably one of many factors.

 

[bpiper]

Come now, we all know by a RCT that 0-29 spread it to the older groups. 0-29 are causal vectors.

Did you reply to the right person?
Your response doesn't make any sense in reply to my post.

I was wondering if some of the hiring problems businesses are facing is due to their potential available workforce having shrunk due to Covid-19 deaths. From the graph, it appears that its killing primarily older people (I am in that range), who are not primarily in most of the industries facing worker shortages. I can see a lot of open rooms in facilities that care for the elderly, which probably explains the increase in advertising for those places I have noticed.

Another thought I had along this line was about the people with long Covid-19. While current studies (UPenn) show up to about 1/3 of Covid-19 positives go on to develop Long Covid-19, there doesn't appear to be data yet on their ages and on their severity or their duration length. This is another potential source of worker shortages that needs to be explored. Overall, I think the worker shortages are complex problem with many different reason why.

 

[LAM378]

Oh, don’t get me started. My 12 year old was considered fully vaccinated this past Thursday, while we were in Disney World. I’m from NJ and we, like half the state, took advantage of Jersey Week plus a few extra days.

I was honest with the school that we were going on vacation, but found out while we were there that according to CDC and county health department guidelines, he has to quarantine until this Friday because he was not fully vaccinated when our trip started. Okay. I guess that’s fair? Shame on me for not reading the most recent guidance?

Meanwhile, this classmate flew to Arizona, this one flew to SC, this one went to NYC and saw some Broadway shows, and these other five families went to WDW and Universal as well. All of those (unvaccinated) kids are back in school today, because all of their parents chose not to tell the schools that they were traveling.

These restrictions are indeed a joke at this point. I’ve got a fully vaccinated kid sitting home losing 4 days of school, and 2 more fully vaccinated kids sitting in classes next to unvaccinated kids who traveled all over last week.

 

[willtravel]

I had read that 30 million baby boomers retired by third quarter 2020. Baby boomers is I think

Did you reply to the right person?
Your response doesn't make any sense in reply to my post.

I was wondering if some of the hiring problems businesses are facing is due to their potential available workforce having shrunk due to Covid-19 deaths. From the graph, it appears that its killing primarily older people (I am in that range), who are not primarily in most of the industries facing worker shortages. I can see a lot of open rooms in facilities that care for the elderly, which probably explains the increase in advertising for those places I have noticed.

Another thought I had along this line was about the people with long Covid-19. While current studies (UPenn) show up to about 1/3 of Covid-19 positives go on to develop Long Covid-19, there doesn't appear to be data yet on their ages and on their severity or their duration length. This is another potential source of worker shortages that needs to be explored. Overall, I think the worker shortages are complex problem with many different reason why.

From what I read recently 28.6-30 million people have left the work force by the end of third quarter (2020) last year. I think it was between 56 to 74 years of age just retired.

 

[Nubs70]

Did you reply to the right person?
Your response doesn't make any sense in reply to my post.

I was wondering if some of the hiring problems businesses are facing is due to their potential available workforce having shrunk due to Covid-19 deaths. From the graph, it appears that its killing primarily older people (I am in that range), who are not primarily in most of the industries facing worker shortages. I can see a lot of open rooms in facilities that care for the elderly, which probably explains the increase in advertising for those places I have noticed.

Another thought I had along this line was about the people with long Covid-19. While current studies (UPenn) show up to about 1/3 of Covid-19 positives go on to develop Long Covid-19, there doesn't appear to be data yet on their ages and on their severity or their duration length. This is another potential source of worker shortages that needs to be explored. Overall, I think the worker shortages are complex problem with many different reason why.

Responding to bar graph.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Did you reply to the right person?
Your response doesn't make any sense in reply to my post.

I was wondering if some of the hiring problems businesses are facing is due to their potential available workforce having shrunk due to Covid-19 deaths. From the graph, it appears that its killing primarily older people (I am in that range), who are not primarily in most of the industries facing worker shortages. I can see a lot of open rooms in facilities that care for the elderly, which probably explains the increase in advertising for those places I have noticed.

Another thought I had along this line was about the people with long Covid-19. While current studies (UPenn) show up to about 1/3 of Covid-19 positives go on to develop Long Covid-19, there doesn't appear to be data yet on their ages and on their severity or their duration length. This is another potential source of worker shortages that needs to be explored. Overall, I think the worker shortages are complex problem with many different reason why.

An indirect impact of the pandemic is that women disproportionately have not returned to the (non-remote) work force, and the most common reason cited were schooling disruptions and the resulting expense for childcare.

 

[bpiper]

I had read that 30 million baby boomers retired by third quarter 2020. Baby boomers is I think

From what I read recently 28.6-30 million people have left the work force by the end of third quarter (2020) last year. I think it was between 56 to 74 years of age just retired.

I just looked up that stat. It's a Forbes article referencing a PEW Research article.

That stat of 28.6-30 million is WRONG. It is the total number of people in the Boomer (1946-1965) population that have retired EVER, not just from Covid-19.

The average retirement rate of boomers is about 2 Million of THEIR population yearly. Last year it was 3.2 Million of their population. So the COVID-19 increase was about 1.2 Million people not 28.6-30 Million.

From the Pew article:

In the third quarter of 2020, about 28.6 million Baby Boomers – those born between 1946 and 1964 – reported that they were out of the labor force due to retirement.

This is 3.2 million more Boomers than the 25.4 million who were retired in the same quarter of 2019. Until this year, the overall number of retired Boomers had been growing annually by about 2 million on average since 2011 (the year the oldest Boomer reached age 65), and the largest increase was 2.5 million between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015.


Now here is were it gets tricky. According to the Pew article, a large part of the increase has come from people over 65 or people without a college education, or non-white or live in the Northeast. This is a larger piece of the puzzle on the hiring problems, but again, not the whole picture. I would argue that these excess boomer retirements are not in the categories of the industries experiencing hiring problems.

From the Pew article:

The recent increase in the share of those who have retired has been greater for some demographic groups. Among Boomers 65 and older, the share retired has increased 2 percentage points since February, whereas the retirement rate has remained unchanged among Boomers younger than 65 (18%).

The share of Boomers who have retired differs by educational attainment. Among those with no education beyond high school, the share is up 2 percentage points since February. There has been no change among those with some college education, and for those with a four-year college degree, the share is up 1 point.

The share of Hispanic Boomers reporting they are retired has increased 4 percentage points since February (30% to 34%). And the retirement rate among Asian Boomers has increased 3 points, from 36% to 39%. Retirement is up more modestly among White and Black Boomers (1 point for each).

Looking regionally, the movement into retirement appears most prevalent among Boomers residing in the Northeast (35% in February and 38% in September).

 

[bpiper]

Responding to bar graph.

The bar graph shows deaths in various age brackets, not who is spreading it to whom.

 

[bpiper]

An indirect impact of the pandemic is that women disproportionately have not returned to the (non-remote) work force, and the most common reason cited were schooling disruptions and the resulting expense for childcare.

Do you have any data? I am finding data from before school started this fall (about 1.4 Million), but I can't find any from after school started.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Do you have any data? I am finding data from before school started this fall (about 1.4 Million), but I can't find any from after school started.

I haven't looked at the raw data or studies, but they're referenced in this and similar articles:

More than 300,000 women left the labor force in September

Women lost jobs across several major industries in September, including government, education and health services, reports the National Women’s Law Center.

www.cnbc.com

 

[bpiper]

I haven't looked at the raw data or studies, but they're referenced in this and similar articles:

More than 300,000 women left the labor force in September

Women lost jobs across several major industries in September, including government, education and health services, reports the National Women’s Law Center.

www.cnbc.com

Thanks. I just read it. The 300K number is for ALL women who left the labor force. It doesn't break it down for just moms. Although 300K in itself is bad.

I am beginning to think we are just going to have to shrink the number of stores/restaurants lower end employing businesses in operation to get out of this mess.

 

[willtravel]

I just looked up that stat. It's a Forbes article referencing a PEW Research article.

That stat of 28.6-30 million is WRONG. It is the total number of people in the Boomer (1946-1965) population that have retired EVER, not just from Covid-19.

The average retirement rate of boomers is about 2 Million of THEIR population yearly. Last year it was 3.2 Million of their population. So the COVID-19 increase was about 1.2 Million people not 28.6-30 Million.

View attachment 599305

From the Pew article:

In the third quarter of 2020, about 28.6 million Baby Boomers – those born between 1946 and 1964 – reported that they were out of the labor force due to retirement.

This is 3.2 million more Boomers than the 25.4 million who were retired in the same quarter of 2019. Until this year, the overall number of retired Boomers had been growing annually by about 2 million on average since 2011 (the year the oldest Boomer reached age 65), and the largest increase was 2.5 million between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015.


Now here is were it gets tricky. According to the Pew article, a large part of the increase has come from people over 65 or people without a college education, or non-white or live in the Northeast. This is a larger piece of the puzzle on the hiring problems, but again, not the whole picture. I would argue that these excess boomer retirements are not in the categories of the industries experiencing hiring problems.

View attachment 599306

From the Pew article:

The recent increase in the share of those who have retired has been greater for some demographic groups. Among Boomers 65 and older, the share retired has increased 2 percentage points since February, whereas the retirement rate has remained unchanged among Boomers younger than 65 (18%).

The share of Boomers who have retired differs by educational attainment. Among those with no education beyond high school, the share is up 2 percentage points since February. There has been no change among those with some college education, and for those with a four-year college degree, the share is up 1 point.

The share of Hispanic Boomers reporting they are retired has increased 4 percentage points since February (30% to 34%). And the retirement rate among Asian Boomers has increased 3 points, from 36% to 39%. Retirement is up more modestly among White and Black Boomers (1 point for each).

Looking regionally, the movement into retirement appears most prevalent among Boomers residing in the Northeast (35% in February and 38% in September).

This is what I saw. I saw another number to where it said 30 million, more than expected.

28.6 million of 56- to 74-year-olds retired in Q3 of 2020, Baby Boomers retirement statistics show.​

(Pew Research Center)

This figure is much higher than the 25.4 million who retired in the same quarter of the previous year. Since it’s believed that COVID-19 and the dire economic state worldwide are responsible for the increasing number of Boomers leaving the workforce, retirement statistics for 2021 will most likely paint an even grimmer picture.

 

[bpiper]

This is what I saw.

28.6 million of 56- to 74-year-olds retired in Q3 of 2020, Baby Boomers retirement statistics show.​

(Pew Research Center)

This figure is much higher than the 25.4 million who retired in the same quarter of the previous year. Since it’s believed that COVID-19 and the dire economic state worldwide are responsible for the increasing number of Boomers leaving the workforce, retirement statistics for 2021 will most likely paint an even grimmer picture.

Yeah, that's the article.

It is poorly worded. It should read "28.6 million of the 56- to 74-year-old population are retired in Q3 of 2020, Baby Boomers retirement statistics show"

Agenda? or just sloppy editing?

 

[bpiper]

Oh, don’t get me started. My 12 year old was considered fully vaccinated this past Thursday, while we were in Disney World. I’m from NJ and we, like half the state, took advantage of Jersey Week plus a few extra days.

I was honest with the school that we were going on vacation, but found out while we were there that according to CDC and county health department guidelines, he has to quarantine until this Friday because he was not fully vaccinated when our trip started. Okay. I guess that’s fair? Shame on me for not reading the most recent guidance?

Meanwhile, this classmate flew to Arizona, this one flew to SC, this one went to NYC and saw some Broadway shows, and these other five families went to WDW and Universal as well. All of those (unvaccinated) kids are back in school today, because all of their parents chose not to tell the schools that they were traveling.

These restrictions are indeed a joke at this point. I’ve got a fully vaccinated kid sitting home losing 4 days of school, and 2 more fully vaccinated kids sitting in classes next to unvaccinated kids who traveled all over last week.

I hear your pain....

Yeah, do the right thing, follow the rules, and get punished by it.

Like watching people blow by you on the highway doing 90 in a 65 zone and then you get pulled over doing 70. Been there.

I hope you were able to make this a teachable moment with your 12 year old and not turn them off of doing the right thing because it could backfire on them.

 

[Andrew C]

Yeah, do the right thing, follow the rules, and get punished by it.

The OP had good intentions but I wouldn’t call telling the school your travel plans doing the right thing. Pandemic or not, it’s none of their business. IMO.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Oh, don’t get me started. My 12 year old was considered fully vaccinated this past Thursday, while we were in Disney World. I’m from NJ and we, like half the state, took advantage of Jersey Week plus a few extra days.

I was honest with the school that we were going on vacation, but found out while we were there that according to CDC and county health department guidelines, he has to quarantine until this Friday because he was not fully vaccinated when our trip started. Okay. I guess that’s fair? Shame on me for not reading the most recent guidance?

Meanwhile, this classmate flew to Arizona, this one flew to SC, this one went to NYC and saw some Broadway shows, and these other five families went to WDW and Universal as well. All of those (unvaccinated) kids are back in school today, because all of their parents chose not to tell the schools that they were traveling.

These restrictions are indeed a joke at this point. I’ve got a fully vaccinated kid sitting home losing 4 days of school, and 2 more fully vaccinated kids sitting in classes next to unvaccinated kids who traveled all over last week.

At least you're teaching your kids to be honest. Those other parents are teaching their kids that it's okay to lie in order to get around rules you don't like.

 

[mmascari]

I was wondering if some of the hiring problems businesses are facing is due to their potential available workforce having shrunk due to Covid-19 deaths.

Now here is were it gets tricky.

Tricky may be an huge understatement. I don't think you'll find any job market with no other changes beyond COVID deaths in isolation that would let you know. The entire workforce market if full of complex interactions.

Do you have any good reports on the types, levels, industries for jobs having the hardest time finding workers?

To stay closer to topic, do we know how Disney is doing on it's own workforce? Even within just the theme parks, they employee people at all kinds of different skills and salaries. If they're having more trouble filling jobs at all levels roughly equally vs the before times or if it's more targeted at certain jobs? Either salary level, work environment, or even typical stereotype of employee. That would be an interesting case study and Disney HR probably has the numbers that would be interesting to analyze.

The jobs where the first layoffs occurred, the first to be out of work back in March or April of 2020. Those jobs having a hard time finding new employees isn't a surprise at all. Most of those people had to find something else to pay the bills. Something they may have decided was a better fit than what they left. It's not like they were just sitting around doing nothing. The new influx of brand new first time workers isn't as large as the number that were laid off and found new work instead. Before you add in all the people impact by childcare at all levels, not just school.

Take an imaginary example. One of those over 65 in the original chart that was providing childcare, say after school for a youngish grandchild. Without them, a parent is doing that now. If they were a childcare center worker, who was laid off, they may be comparing the cost (and hassle and COVID exposure) of bringing that kid to a childcare center where they could go back to work vs not working at all. If they pick not working, that childcare center has less staff and can take less kids. Creating the same scenario for other parents. It snowballs from there. Alternatively, take a restaurant employee who got a warehouse job instead after being laid off. Even if the pay was exactly the same, and even if they work an abusing warehouse schedule and pace, they may still prefer that to working in a restaurant again.

Which just gets back to it gets tricky, and it's all very interconnected.

About that Disney job though, how about a high paying, low stress, minimal public interaction one to "retire" into? Any leads? It comes with park access right?

 

[bellevueloungers]

hey all...i've been reading this thread quietly for months, taking it all in. today i got my first dose of moderna. i've been a holdout, not anti-vax but severe health anxiety. finally got up the courage to go. just want to say thanks to those of you who helped to encourage me, even though you didnt know it.

 

[JoeCamel]

hey all...i've been reading this thread quietly for months, taking it all in. today i got my first dose of moderna. i've been a holdout, not anti-vax but severe health anxiety. finally got up the courage to go. just want to say thanks to those of you who helped to encourage me, even though you didnt know it.

Take some pain killer and sleep as much as you can the next two days. Most say nothing more than a sore arm with Moderna but some have cold like symptoms as your body produces the antibodies.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

hey all...i've been reading this thread quietly for months, taking it all in. today i got my first dose of moderna. i've been a holdout, not anti-vax but severe health anxiety. finally got up the courage to go. just want to say thanks to those of you who helped to encourage me, even though you didnt know it.

Congratulations and welcome to the club, mind if I ask what pushed you over the edge, or was it simply that enough time had passed to make you feel comfortable the vaccines are safe?

I find it fascinating that nearly a million Americans are still being vaccinated every day, the majority of those are probably younger people with recent access but it’s encouraging that many on the fence are still making the decision also.

I had the Pfizer and aside from some arm pain my only side affect was I was tired for a few days, take it easy and enjoy the lack of stress, I was hesitant to get the shot originally too but was amazed how much less stress I had after I got my second shot. It was a huge relief.