Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Glimpses]

There have been multiple studies.

And explain how it doesn't prove anything? Where did you get your degree in epidemiology?

Are you suggesting that people hospitalized for COVID-like illness is representative of the average previously infected American? And what the heck are you talking about? What does epidemiology have to do with understanding statistics? Where did you get your degree from?

Please cite the "multiple studies."

Here are 102 that say you are wrong: https://brownstone.org/articles/79-...ity-to-covid-19-documented-linked-and-quoted/

 

[Disney Glimpses]

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This. Exactly this. So many instant epidemiologists these days and they all seem to be giving all their "expert" medical advise right here on WDWMagic. Lucky us. Or something.

Medical advice? The contrary. I'm not advising anyone to do anything. Simply pointing out an egregious flaw in a member's understanding of a study.

The only thing that's clear about WDWMagic is that its members have no understanding of even basic statistics. The CDC actually put out quite the lengthy briefing on natural immunity and said there is substantial evidence there is robust protection; they just don't know enough yet to stop recommending vaccination for those people.

And despite the lack of your epidemiology education, you all seem quite confident in your position despite hundreds of professionals in the field disputing much of what has been said here lately.

This post is an echo chamber of epic proportions and it's no wonder it's the same 5 people bouncing the ball back to each other a year later. The is no tolerance whatsoever for an opposing view. Nothing is certain on this matter and you all act as though it's 100% figured out. The same group, all day. Hysterical really.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Medical advice? The contrary. I'm not advising anyone to do anything. Simply pointing out an egregious flaw in a member's understanding of a study.

The only thing that's clear about WDWMagic is that its members have no understanding of even basic statistics. The CDC actually put out quite the lengthy briefing on natural immunity and said there is substantial evidence there is robust protection; they just don't know enough yet to stop recommending vaccination for those people.

And despite the lack of your epidemiology education, you all seem quite confident in your position despite hundreds of professionals in the field disputing much of what has been said here lately.

This post is an echo chamber of epic proportions and it's no wonder it's the same 5 people bouncing the ball back to each other a year later. The is no tolerance whatsoever for an opposing view. Nothing is certain on this matter and you all act as though it's 100% figured out. The same group, all day. Hysterical really.

This is "hysterical really", as you put it, from someone who continues to spew misinformation all over the place. Sheesh. One person who was spewing misinformation finally shuts up and now here comes another one. It never ends.

 

[October82]

This is "hysterical really", as you put it, from someone who continues to spew misinformation all over the place. Sheesh. One person who was spewing misinformation finally shuts up and now here comes another one. It never ends.

Just fyi, @disneyglimpses, using the laughing emoji sarcastically is against the site wide rules.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Who said it was sarcastic?

Uh-huh.

 

[DisneyCane]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8347039/ontario-covid-mandatory-vaccine-hospital-workers/amp/
An actual news story citing the actual reasons for not enforcing the mandate from the government. Some of the good reasons include hospitals doing it without governmental fiat, among others. Where I disagree is in the assessment that too many workers would be lost, but we all know Canada is wiping the floor in general with regards to vaccine rates, so they’re likely in a better spot to absorb the next wave. Especially if they follow FDA/CDC suit and start vaccinating 5-11 year olds by year’s end.

I won’t even bother with the rest of the repeatedly debunked anti-vax drivel. Enough is enough. We CAN get to a point where people can move on and live normally, if the holdouts would shut up and roll up their sleeves.

We’re still cancelling elective surgeries not urgent enough to be life threatening (yet) so that society can cow-tow to “choice and freedom.” Yay.

Despite Canada "wiping the floor" with respect to vaccination rate, it isn't like the cases there are trending towards zero.

We are at the point where people can move on and live normally. Simple solution. Set aside a certain percentage of hospital capacity for COVID treatment of the unvaccinated. Once that fills, unvaccinated people who get COVID are SOL. Everybody can make their own choices and people who choose to be vaccinated don't have any issues with elective surgeries or other treatments.

 

[Touchdown]

Despite Canada "wiping the floor" with respect to vaccination rate, it isn't like the cases there are trending towards zero.

View attachment 598010

We are at the point where people can move on and live normally. Simple solution. Set aside a certain percentage of hospital capacity for COVID treatment of the unvaccinated. Once that fills, unvaccinated people who get COVID are SOL. Everybody can make their own choices and people who choose to be vaccinated don't have any issues with elective surgeries or other treatments.

Is any country at 95% (total population not eligible) vaccinated? Nope there isn’t, that’s what we need to “mop the floor” with vaccines. Delta will remain in some fashion and cause waves until we get to 95% immune. I don’t know how many times I need to say the same thing.

Thankfully immune also means natural immunity but we don’t know how many people become immune after infections and we have no way to measure that on a wide scale, but we’ll know when we get there, and most experts are currently predicting late 2023 unless vaccinations pick up more in adults, that prediction is based on kids getting vaccinated between 40-50%.

 

[DisneyCane]

Is any country at 95% (total population not eligible) vaccinated? Nope there isn’t, that’s what we need to “mop the floor” with vaccines. Delta will remain in some fashion and cause waves until we get to 95% immune. I don’t know how many times I need to say the same thing.

Thankfully immune also means natural immunity but we don’t know how many people become immune after infections and we have no way to measure that on a wide scale, but we’ll know when we get there, and most experts are currently predicting late 2023 unless vaccinations pick up more in adults, that prediction is based on kids getting vaccinated between 40-50%.

Based on this study in The Lancet it seems like it might require a lot more than 95% of the population vaccinated to get rid of Delta. When I say a lot more, I mean a mathematically impossible number above 100%.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Where did you get your degree in epidemiology?

University of Google. Class of 6:53am

 

[Touchdown]

Based on this study in The Lancet it seems like it might require a lot more than 95% of the population vaccinated to get rid of Delta. When I say a lot more, I mean a mathematically impossible number above 100%.

We aren’t getting rid of Covid but the pandemic will cease (and become endemic) at 95%.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Is any country at 95% (total population not eligible) vaccinated? Nope there isn’t, that’s what we need to “mop the floor” with vaccines. Delta will remain in some fashion and cause waves until we get to 95% immune. I don’t know how many times I need to say the same thing.

Thankfully immune also means natural immunity but we don’t know how many people become immune after infections and we have no way to measure that on a wide scale, but we’ll know when we get there, and most experts are currently predicting late 2023 unless vaccinations pick up more in adults, that prediction is based on kids getting vaccinated between 40-50%.

What about federal transportation mask mandate? Will they will lift masks for good for trains, buses, planes and cruises by next year?
The pandemic will be ending by next spring/summer 2022.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

A big problem is waning immunity which is why Israel saw and why they had a massive Delta surge despite being the most vaccinated country on Earth. Maryland reported 30-40% of their hospitalizations as occurring in fully vaccinated people.

In fact, there are probably people here who were "fully vaccinated" in January that are as good as unvaccinated at this point and sitting here calling the unvaccinated selfish.

Hmm, I live in Maryland, and have no idea where you are getting your information from. Here is a recent excerpt:

So on January 26th of this year, we identified the state’s first post vaccination infection, and then to date, so cumulatively, among the 3.2 million Marylanders who would be considered fully vaccinated, we have identified 3,836 people who have tested positive for COVID-19. Again, let’s think about those numbers. 3.2 million people and just under 4,000 individuals of those who have been identified. That is less than 0.12 percent.

Of those Marylanders who had post vaccination infections, 454 have been hospitalized. That is 3.6 percent of all COVID-19 hospitalizations since January 2021. 53 have died, representing 3.7 percent of all lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths here in the state since January. And lastly, only 3.2 percent of all confirmed cases have been among the fully vaccinated, again, since January.

 

[correcaminos]

Based on this study in The Lancet it seems like it might require a lot more than 95% of the population vaccinated to get rid of Delta. When I say a lot more, I mean a mathematically impossible number above 100%.

You got that from a study like that? It focused a lot on household spread and even said this

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Hmm, I live in Maryland, and have no idea where you are getting your information from. Here is a recent excerpt:

So on January 26th of this year, we identified the state’s first post vaccination infection, and then to date, so cumulatively, among the 3.2 million Marylanders who would be considered fully vaccinated, we have identified 3,836 people who have tested positive for COVID-19. Again, let’s think about those numbers. 3.2 million people and just under 4,000 individuals of those who have been identified. That is less than 0.12 percent.

Of those Marylanders who had post vaccination infections, 454 have been hospitalized. That is 3.6 percent of all COVID-19 hospitalizations since January 2021. 53 have died, representing 3.7 percent of all lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths here in the state since January. And lastly, only 3.2 percent of all confirmed cases have been among the fully vaccinated, again, since January.

Thanks for the fact check. 30-40% of hospitalized COVID patients being vaccinated sounded absurdly high and completely out of line with other state's data, but I didn't have time to immediately look it up.

I'm seeing common tactics as we move deeper into the COVID vaccination era- if you're losing the battle against real data, make up your own and throw doubt on anything that comes out of the CDC (probably the widely trusted world leader as a repository of health care data, except in some circles of our own country) because.... I don't know, "government bad"?

 

[sullyinMT]

Despite Canada "wiping the floor" with respect to vaccination rate, it isn't like the cases there are trending towards zero.

View attachment 598010

We are at the point where people can move on and live normally. Simple solution. Set aside a certain percentage of hospital capacity for COVID treatment of the unvaccinated. Once that fills, unvaccinated people who get COVID are SOL. Everybody can make their own choices and people who choose to be vaccinated don't have any issues with elective surgeries or other treatments.

That third wave is better than many states, especially those with lower vaccination rates. It doesn’t exceed their previous waves’ peak. So, their higher vaccination rate is helping. That’s inconvenient and hard for any proud American to admit (myself included), but their plan is working. Sure, there are bumps along the way (BC’s hopefully temporary loss of medical staff, for one), but they will be starting the winter at lower levels than last year and hopefully for them, can absorb a new wave in a better fashion. In our autumn trough early last Oct, we were seeing 40k cases/day. The US is at 70k today. Let’s hope our (US) higher levels of natural infection play a role in blunting the winter wave, because our abysmal vaccination rate alone simply isn’t enough.

 

[ABQ]

I'm not sure which wave my silly state is on now, but we had been one of the faster and better vaccinated states, that was in the adult vax rate prior to expansion to children I guess and are now looking at more cases per day and higher hospitalizations than any time prior to June. More deaths from any time since Feb. We've had very high compliance with indoor mask mandates from what I can tell yet, it's all failing at this time.
Sure, our numbers are low compared to other states, but not very great when looked at per 100k or the like.

It's not terrible as it was a year ago, however, our poverty ridden state is certainly not in a position to handle long term high hospitalization rates. What's bizarre is with a decent vaccination rate, I have no clue where all these new cases are coming from. Anecdotal, I know, but I'm not aware of anyone I know or anyone they know, who has been vaccinated and is hospitalized, so where these cases and full beds are coming from is very bizarre.

 

[Heppenheimer]

That third wave is better than many states, especially those with lower vaccination rates. It doesn’t exceed their previous waves’ peak. So, their higher vaccination rate is helping. That’s inconvenient and hard for any proud American to admit (myself included), but their plan is working. Sure, there are bumps along the way (BC’s hopefully temporary loss of medical staff, for one), but they will be starting the winter at lower levels than last year and hopefully for them, can absorb a new wave in a better fashion. In our autumn trough early last Oct, we were seeing 40k cases/day. The US is at 70k today. Let’s hope our (US) higher levels of natural infection play a role in blunting the winter wave, because our abysmal vaccination rate alone simply isn’t enough.

I'm hoping that vaccinating younger kids can at least reduce the amount of circulating virus enough to prevent a winter surge, but I have my doubts. The age group that has lagged the most in vaccination is unfortunately the one who are most likely to be the parents of younger children. Unless schools require the vaccination, which seems unlikely prior to full approval, I think we're in for another rough winter.

 

[DCBaker]

Here's the summary of the new "Emergency Temporary Standard" OSHA information on vaccination and testing. The vaccination deadline is set for January 4th.

https://www.osha.gov/sites/default/files/publications/OSHA4162.pdf

Here is the rule on testing for employees who are not fully vaccinated -

Main site -

COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing ETS | Occupational Safety and Health Administration

www.osha.gov

 

[sullyinMT]

I'm not sure which wave my silly state is on now, but we had been one of the faster and better vaccinated states, that was in the adult vax rate prior to expansion to children I guess and are now looking at more cases per day and higher hospitalizations than any time prior to June. More deaths from any time since Feb. We've had very high compliance with indoor mask mandates from what I can tell yet, it's all failing at this time.
Sure, our numbers are low compared to other states, but not very great when looked at per 100k or the like.
View attachment 598040

It's not terrible as it was a year ago, however, our poverty ridden state is certainly not in a position to handle long term high hospitalization rates. What's bizarre is with a decent vaccination rate, I have no clue where all these new cases are coming from. Anecdotal, I know, but I'm not aware of anyone I know or anyone they know, who has been vaccinated and is hospitalized, so where these cases and full beds are coming from is very bizarre.

I don’t know if NM has better state level data published for age and county level analysis, but the CDC has y’all at 75% fully vaccinated of the 18+ (63% total population, 73% of 12+). We’ve seen time and again that 75% is inadequate, unfortunately. What is nice on your curve is that at least you aren’t exceeding previous peaks. Here’s to you guys breaking soon and coming down.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I don’t know if NM has better state level data published for age and county level analysis, but the CDC has y’all at 75% fully vaccinated of the 18+ (63% total population, 73% of 12+). We’ve seen time and again that 75% is inadequate, unfortunately. What is nice on your curve is that at least you aren’t exceeding previous peaks. Here’s to you guys breaking soon and coming down.

And only about 15% of the population of New Mexico has had COVID-19 to date. That means even if you add in natural immunity, your at about 78% immune. Even if each wave was evened out to about 5% of the population, 22% is still plenty of people to keep getting infected.