Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

I wasn't discrediting anything. I was simply saying that the breakthrough data from the CDC is not complete. They tell you right on there that it isn't but don't disclose what is missing. Like all CDC death data, there is definitely a reporting lag as well.

Yes you were. If you want to believe vaccinated are dying more frequently than reported I don't know what to tell you.

As an FYI I lost a loved one to multiple myeloma earlier this year. Sepsis was the ultimate cause of death. MM just meant they couldn't fight it off. Cause of death is often not singular in cause either. Stop looking at it so binary.

 

[DisneyCane]

Yes you were. If you want to believe vaccinated are dying more frequently than reported I don't know what to tell you.

As an FYI I lost a loved one to multiple myeloma earlier this year. Sepsis was the ultimate cause of death. MM just meant they couldn't fight it off. Cause of death is often not singular in cause either. Stop looking at it so binary.

Sorry for your loss.

As far as the breakthrough deaths data, it's not that I believe there are more vaccinated dying of COVID than reported by the CDC, it's that they specifically say they don't get reports from every state and territory but don't say which are missing. I can only assume based on all other CDC death data that there is also a reporting lag.

I don't think there are 10 times the reported deaths or anything like that and the vaccinated are certainly at FAR lower risk of death than the unvaccinated. I'm just pointing out that the specific data reported by the CDC is not complete or up to date.

If somebody tried to use the CDC data for a study, it would never meet the qualifications for publication because the data is flawed. Pointing this fact out isn't downplaying the vaccines.

 

[Heppenheimer]

A spike protein test shows the presence of the proteins the vax instructs your body to produce, a stronger presence being better than weaker, these are the proteins that seemingly would wane and weaken over time and warrant the need for a booster, its what is boosted by that subsequent shot. The nucleic acid test would be a check for the actual virus being present and your body fighting it, meaning exposure and apparently contraction of the virus. Odds would be low that the second showed anything unless the one being tested was asymptomatic, but the spike protein test is certainly one that would be good to know. I know someone who was vaccinated back in Feb, 2nd dose of Pfizer and is still showing a strong presence of the protein. As that's now 8 months back and many people still are not eligible for a booster, it's comforting to know that the booster necessity may not be as imminent yet. My own second shot of Moderna was in the first week of March and there's been little movement on booster availability for myself yet. Not being in the population they are looking at right now.

Do you mean showing antibodies to the spike protein? There is no test that specifically assesses for the presence or amount of the spike protein. Whether generated by the vaccine or the actual virus, the spike protein lacks the major histocompatability complex (MHC) signal that the immune system uses to identify "self". The spike proteins get gobbled up and degraded into amino acid fragments by the macrophage cells. There's nothing left but the basic amino acid building blocks of them once the virus or the vaccine-generated proteins get cleared by the immune system.

 

[correcaminos]

Sorry for your loss.

As far as the breakthrough deaths data, it's not that I believe there are more vaccinated dying of COVID than reported by the CDC, it's that they specifically say they don't get reports from every state and territory but don't say which are missing. I can only assume based on all other CDC death data that there is also a reporting lag.

I don't think there are 10 times the reported deaths or anything like that and the vaccinated are certainly at FAR lower risk of death than the unvaccinated. I'm just pointing out that the specific data reported by the CDC is not complete or up to date.

If somebody tried to use the CDC data for a study, it would never meet the qualifications for publication because the data is flawed. Pointing this fact out isn't downplaying the vaccines.

The CDC stopped following every breakthrough case. They rely on hospitals to report admissions of covid+ vaccinated. They shifted to severe and death. I do not take that to mean hospitals are hiding data on deaths. Lag yes, but what you implied with your origin post? No. Whether you realize it or not, your posts are becoming increasingly obvious where news sources come from and reek of covid denial/vaccines aren't great. I'd keep that in mind while typing.

 

[ABQ]

Do you mean showing antibodies to the spike protein? There is no test that specifically assesses for the presence or amount of the spike protein. Whether generated by the vaccine or the actual virus, the spike protein lacks the major histocompatability complex (MHC) signal that the immune system uses to identify "self". The spike proteins get gobbled up and degraded into amino acid fragments by the macrophage cells. There's nothing left but the basic amino acid building blocks of them once the virus or the vaccine-generated proteins get cleared by the immune system.

Didn't Quest come up with a COVID-19 Semi-quantitative serology test which detect the presence of spike proteins? I swear I read about that a few months back, though I certainly will not claim to be fully aware of what it can and cannot deduce from that info.

 

[JoeCamel]

Didn't Quest come up with a COVID-19 Semi-quantitative serology test which detect the presence of spike proteins? I swear I read about that a few months back, though I certainly will not claim to be fully aware of what it can and cannot deduce from that info.

I thought his point was that the spike proteins are destroyed by the immune system at a rapid rate so there is nothing to test for.

 

[mmascari]

I don't think there are 10 times the reported deaths or anything like that and the vaccinated are certainly at FAR lower risk of death than the unvaccinated. I'm just pointing out that the specific data reported by the CDC is not complete or up to date.

If somebody tried to use the CDC data for a study, it would never meet the qualifications for publication because the data is flawed. Pointing this fact out isn't downplaying the vaccines.

Would it? While they know it's not perfect data, is the error from some missing sources, or even the lag enough for it to matter?

The lag is just a timing issue, it's probably fine for data as of a month ago. Just like the CDC FL data seems to stop changing after a month, you can look at the daily numbers from a month ago today and they'll be pretty good. For as of "right now", it'll definitely be an under count, but not one that matters on the scale. If you look at "as of a month ago" and adjusted all the vaccination and case data to be as of the same old date, that should be a pretty good data set. If you're trying to break it down into each of the individual sources and you pick the one that's missing, that would fail. The amount it's off, and the amount vs the population size is just so vastly different that it doesn't matter.

Saw a nice picture on Twitter from Wisconsin showing the relative sizes. Even if breakthrough deaths were twice as big, 100% more, it wouldn't matter at all. The unvaccinated graph would still be significantly larger.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Didn't Quest come up with a COVID-19 Semi-quantitative serology test which detect the presence of spike proteins? I swear I read about that a few months back, though I certainly will not claim to be fully aware of what it can and cannot deduce from that info.

It tests for the antibodies, not the actual spike protein.

Quest Diagnostics Introduces New COVID-19 Semi-quantitative Serology Test Service

Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX), the world's leading provider of diagnostic information services, today introduced a new COVID-19 testing service that aids in providing insight into an individual's...

newsroom.questdiagnostics.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Would it? While they know it's not perfect data, is the error from some missing sources, or even the lag enough for it to matter?

The lag is just a timing issue, it's probably fine for data as of a month ago. Just like the CDC FL data seems to stop changing after a month, you can look at the daily numbers from a month ago today and they'll be pretty good. For as of "right now", it'll definitely be an under count, but not one that matters on the scale. If you look at "as of a month ago" and adjusted all the vaccination and case data to be as of the same old date, that should be a pretty good data set. If you're trying to break it down into each of the individual sources and you pick the one that's missing, that would fail. The amount it's off, and the amount vs the population size is just so vastly different that it doesn't matter.

Saw a nice picture on Twitter from Wisconsin showing the relative sizes. Even if breakthrough deaths were twice as big, 100% more, it wouldn't matter at all. The unvaccinated graph would still be significantly larger.

To draw accurate conclusions you have to look at deaths from vaccinated and unvaccinated over some fixed time period and compare people who live in similar conditions and under similar mitigation protocols.

That graphic, while good to make a point is somewhat meaningless without the percentages that fall into each category. Hypothetically if only 20% were vaccinated, the graphic would be showing that the vaccines don't do anything. I AM NOT SAYING THAT IS THE CASE, I'm just making a point about the graphic.

Since it appears to use aggregate numbers, conclusions can't be drawn from it (or the CDC breakthrough data) because the percentage vaccinated is increasing over time. There have to be bounds to the data being analyzed for it to mean anything.

 

[mmascari]

That graphic, while good to make a point is somewhat meaningless without the percentages that fall into each category.

Click through the tweet, and to the second one with the source links. All the details on how the graph is created and how the two sides are normalized and how they can be compared are covered. It's from Wisconsin, not nationally, so all the stats are based on people who live in Wisconsin. There's rural and urban areas in Wisconsin, but it's still more uniform than a national number would be and there's only one set of state rules in play.

It shows that cases are 5 times higher, hospitalizations 9 times higher, and deaths 19 times higher in unvaccinated vs vaccinated people, in Wisconsin.

COVID-19: Vaccine Data

COVID-19: Data Pages Cases Deaths Facility-Wide Investigations Frequently Asked Questions Hospitals Racial and Ethnic Disparities Wastewater Monitoring

www.dhs.wisconsin.gov

Alternatively, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services if full of it and doesn't understand statistics at all. I get that a random Twitter user cannot be trusted, or a forum armchair statistician, but this has all the details explained and backing it up from an actual organization that's responsible for this type of thing.

 

[disneygeek90]

Anecdotal of course, but my office in Orlando announced masks are optional for all, including non vaccinated employees. Of course, this is also while they announce 86% of the office is vaccinated and non vaccinated still must test and submit results weekly.

 

[Andrew C]

Anecdotal of course, but my office in Orlando announced masks are optional for all, including non vaccinated employees. Of course, this is also while they announce 86% of the office is vaccinated and non vaccinated still must test and submit results weekly.

86%...not too shabby.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

That graphic, while good to make a point is somewhat meaningless without the percentages that fall into each category. Hypothetically if only 20% were vaccinated, the graphic would be showing that the vaccines don't do anything. I AM NOT SAYING THAT IS THE CASE, I'm just making a point about the graphic.

It’s per 100,000, percent that fall into each category is irrelevant (as long as both are an ample sample size).

Just further proof of what we’ve already known for a few months though, vaccinations drastically reduce your risks, especially for severe cases.

 

[mmascari]

It’s per 100,000, percent that fall into each category is irrelevant (as long as both are an ample sample size).

770K cases and 3.1M people fully vaccinated. Should be ample enough sizes.

 

[Nubs70]

Would it? While they know it's not perfect data, is the error from some missing sources, or even the lag enough for it to matter?

The lag is just a timing issue, it's probably fine for data as of a month ago. Just like the CDC FL data seems to stop changing after a month, you can look at the daily numbers from a month ago today and they'll be pretty good. For as of "right now", it'll definitely be an under count, but not one that matters on the scale. If you look at "as of a month ago" and adjusted all the vaccination and case data to be as of the same old date, that should be a pretty good data set. If you're trying to break it down into each of the individual sources and you pick the one that's missing, that would fail. The amount it's off, and the amount vs the population size is just so vastly different that it doesn't matter.

Saw a nice picture on Twitter from Wisconsin showing the relative sizes. Even if breakthrough deaths were twice as big, 100% more, it wouldn't matter at all. The unvaccinated graph would still be significantly larger.

This assumes that al 100,000 people were afforded the same opportunity to get infected.

If you consider infected as the population set:

Vaccinated:
Infected - 513
Fatalities - 1.3

Fatalitiy % = .253%

Unvaccinated:
Infected - 2351.2
Fatalities - 24.5

Fatality % =1.04%

If infected, vaccination reduces fatal outcome by 75%

 

[Lilofan]

Anecdotal of course, but my office in Orlando announced masks are optional for all, including non vaccinated employees. Of course, this is also while they announce 86% of the office is vaccinated and non vaccinated still must test and submit results weekly.

86% vaccinated , sounds like an office party to celebrate! Or if going through lean times , a potluck office party.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Heelz2315]

Gettin closer to the 10 day benchmark. Or is it 14?

 

[Bullseye1967]

Gettin closer to the 10 day benchmark. Or is it 14?

It was supposed to be 14, but last time they used some special math and it was 17.