Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

I wouldn't put too much faith in those CDC numbers. First, they say they receive reports from 50 states and territories but don't list which don't report. If Guam doesn't report it probably doesn't change the stats much. If FL doesn't report it's a different story. I also believe there is a relatively long lag time until they get the report so I'd go with the assumption that the real number is somewhat higher. How much, I have no idea.

I've been busy lately with a show... what's with this discrediting vaccines so much?

 

[Lilofan]

Kinda an oxymoron to say fully vax'ed with a poor immune system. If you don't elicit the immune response are you fully vax'ed?

General Colin Powell is what you just described . RIP General Powell.

 

[DisneyFan32]

This may cause to be bigger spike this Thanksgiving and possibity Christmas, thanks alot anti-vaxxers as COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[mmascari]

CDC states 7,178 vaccinated people have died of Covid. Out of the 187 million plus vaccinated. Almost 25k have been hospitalized but did not die. Just to put things in perspective.

I wouldn't put too much faith in those CDC numbers. First, they say they receive reports from 50 states and territories but don't list which don't report. If Guam doesn't report it probably doesn't change the stats much. If FL doesn't report it's a different story. I also believe there is a relatively long lag time until they get the report so I'd go with the assumption that the real number is somewhat higher. How much, I have no idea.

Even if those numbers are off by 100% and the real number is double that. Does it matter?

7,178 / 187,000,000 is 0.0038%. While 14,356 / 187,000,000 is 0.0077%. Really moves the line there.

Even the hospitalization number, at double to 50,000 / 187,000,000 only shifts from 0.0134% to 0.0267%.

The stats, even if they are wildly wrong and off, are just so small compared to the number of vaccinated people to not really have any impact on the effectiveness reporting. Unless they're so wrong to be off by 100 times. Even FL isn't that bad to move the stat that far.

By now, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the vaccine isn't 100% completely effective and isn't a protective forcefield. At the same time, its also way better than not being vaccinated.

As always, the same holds true. Even someone who is vaccinated shouldn't be taking wild risks in areas with high transmission. They're still way better off than someone who is unvaccinated. In areas of "not quite high transmission", the vaccine reduction to risk starts to make it a non issue. In areas of low transmission, there's virtually no risk to the vaccinated. (Virtually, not absolutely.)

The more we vaccinate, the lower we'll drive transmission. And just like spread isn't linear, the reduction isn't going to be linear either. Until we reach the inflection point, its still going to look like there is no or almost no impact. Not sure what that point is, but it'll be "of population" not "of eligible", and my bet is somewhere over 85%. But, that's just my bet not something I've seen. Clearly, only 70% or less isn't going to be enough.

 

[Lilofan]

This may cause to be bigger spike this Thanksgiving and possibity Christmas, thanks alot anti-vaxxers as COVID-19 pandemic.

40% of TSA workers that are unvaccinated who have very close contact with travelers is unacceptable.

 

[Touchdown]

Apparently you misread my post because I didn't say anything about COVID not being that bad. I said that the doomsday scenarios people were envisioning where every person on earth eventually gets it and then x% die would never have happened due to our immune systems and other defenses.

Broward County does at least as much voluntary mitigation as Miami-Dade, is right next door, has a lower vaccination rate and lower spread currently.

See my note about urban areas, population density is a major contributor to spread.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Before the fire gets started know he had cancer as well so his immune system was not working much

Covid may have been the straw that broke the camels back but didn’t kill Colin Powell, cancer and age did.

It was unfair a year ago when Covid was listed as the reason for death for every person that tested positive (whether it was the primary cause of death or not) and it’s just as unfair that an 84 year old with cancer will now be counted as a breakthrough death and used by anti-vaxxers as “proof” that the vaccines “don’t work”.

We really should report Covid as primary cause or contributing factor.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Covid may have been the straw that broke the camels back but didn’t kill Colin Powell, cancer and age did.

It was unfair a year ago when Covid was listed as the reason for death for every person that tested positive (whether it was the primary cause of death or not) and it’s just as unfair that an 84 year old with cancer will now be counted as a breakthrough death and used by anti-vaxxers as “proof” that the vaccines “don’t work”.

We really should report Covid as primary cause or contributing factor.

This has been explained. Repeatedly.

 

[Touchdown]

This has been explained. Repeatedly.

Yup most people do not die of cancer as their primary cause. If cancer is listed in the chain of cause of death it’s because a person died of organ failure (acute renal failure, liver failure, heart failure, respiratory failure) that can be directly linked. If they die of an infection you can’t directly source the cancer as a cause so it only gets listed as a comorbid condition.

Covid, step pneumonia, E. coli UTI doesn’t matter.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Covid may have been the straw that broke the camels back but didn’t kill Colin Powell, cancer and age did.

It was unfair a year ago when Covid was listed as the reason for death for every person that tested positive (whether it was the primary cause of death or not) and it’s just as unfair that an 84 year old with cancer will now be counted as a breakthrough death and used by anti-vaxxers as “proof” that the vaccines “don’t work”.

We really should report Covid as primary cause or contributing factor.

For all we know, he may have been stable with multiple myeloma and at home doing what any 84 year old does before he caught COVID-19. People don't die directly of multiple myeloma, they die due to the consequences of the immune dysfunction or kidney failure that it causes.

Multiple myeloma certainly made Colin Powell more susceptible to COVID-19. Not that he would have likely enjoyed that much longer of a life anyway with that diagnosis, but his case once again demonstrates the importance of herd immunity to protect the vulnerable. And we won't get there unless plenty more people get vaccinated.

EDIT: It was just a few days ago that we had to explain that people don't die directly of the HIV infection that causes AIDS, they die from another infection that their compromised immune system couldn't fend off.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This has been explained. Repeatedly.

Guess I missed it in the few minutes a day I spend here, let me go back and read the 90,000 posts to find it… thanks for the helpful response.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Covid may have been the straw that broke the camels back but didn’t kill Colin Powell, cancer and age did.

It was unfair a year ago when Covid was listed as the reason for death for every person that tested positive (whether it was the primary cause of death or not) and it’s just as unfair that an 84 year old with cancer will now be counted as a breakthrough death and used by anti-vaxxers as “proof” that the vaccines “don’t work”.

We really should report Covid as primary cause or contributing factor.

We should also point out that the failure of the general population to get vaccinated puts compromised people at risk.

 

[Lilofan]

For all we know, he may have been stable with multiple myeloma and at home doing what any 84 year old does before he caught COVID-19. People don't die directly of multiple myeloma, they die due to the consequences of the immune dysfunction or kidney failure that it causes.

Multiple myeloma certainly made Colin Powell more susceptible to COVID-19. Not that he would have likely enjoyed that much longer of a life anyway with that diagnosis, but his case once again demonstrates the importance of herd immunity to protect the vulnerable. And we won't get there unless plenty more people get vaccinated.

EDIT: It was just a few days ago that we had to explain that people don't die directly of the HIV infection that causes AIDS, they die from another infection that their compromised immune system couldn't fend off.

His team had advised that in addition to battling multiple myeloma, he was also battling Parkinsons. General Powell got his Pfizer shots in Jan and Feb however he was too sick recently to get his booster shot scheduled for this week which he did not receive.

 

[Bob Harlem]

Orange county Back down to June levels now, although 14 day average is still above 5%, it'll be falling soon enough. The mask recommendation for the county probably will be ending next week, of which Disney followed last time, along with the statistical projections and lack of any flare ups with variants, it's the only data backed way to respond.



A few of the first areas to have a Delta flare up in Lousiana and Mississippi are now in the low category, and the decrease seems to be "spreading." Florida also now has the lowest infection rate in the continental US.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Orange county Back down to June levels now, although 14 day average is still above 5%, it'll be falling soon enough. The mask recommendation for the county probably will be ending next week, of which Disney followed last time.

I hope not.

Places with much better vaccination rates than the USA saw cases spike as mask mandates ended. The Delta variant has changed the game.

Not to mention, as well as Florida seems to be doing as of late, WDW in particular still packs in thousands of people from all over.

Masks indoors continues to be a reasonable and sensible policy to follow until case numbers truly drop and stabilize. Otherwise, it could just be the start of another upward cycle.

 

[Heppenheimer]

His team had advised that in addition to battling multiple myeloma, he was also battling Parkinsons. General Powell got his Pfizer shots in Jan and Feb however he was too sick recently to get his booster shot scheduled for this week which he did not receive.

If he was in the later stages of Parkinson's disease, that would also put him at a higher risk for infection.

 

[Andrew C]

The mask recommendation for the county probably will be ending next week, of which Disney followed last time, along with the statistical projections and lack of any flare ups with variants, it's the only data backed way to respond.

If they are following their recommendation, makes sense.

 

[Andrew C]

Places with much better vaccination rates than the USA saw cases spike as mask mandates ended. The Delta variant has changed the game.

The vaccination rates anywhere in the US were never going to be high enough to deal with delta. We know that now. And the end of mask mandates and other forms of mitigation also aligned with summer.

 

[Incomudro]

He had multiple myeloma, a cancer of the plasma cells that suppresses the body's immune response. It's likely the vaccine may not have helped him much in his immunocompromised state.

It'd be nice if the news put that out as well as his age - first and foremost instead of - "Died from complications due to covid."

 

[Heppenheimer]

It'd be nice if the news put that out as well as his age - first and foremost instead of - "Died from complications due to covid."

He died directly as a result of COVID, though. He was more vulnerable than the average person, but his underlying conditions didn't directly kill him. The consequences of infection from SARS-Cov-2 did.