Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heelz2315]

By the end of the first quarter of '22 we'll have:

-Vaccines for all age groups (hopefully well over 200M fully vaccinated)
-Booster shots if need be
-Theraputics to help treat and stop Covid if you can't take/won't take the vaccine
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34159342/
-Masks to wear IF you choose

There should be NO need for any further measures to stop the spread of a virus that's so easily stopped/treated.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why would you expect a blip from Labor Day in FL? Those blips as a result of holidays are because people let their mitigation guard down and gather differently on holidays. FL doesn't really have any mitigation. People who were mitigating on their own aren't going to change their behavior on a holiday weekend.

If there is a spike in the northeast during the winter, there may be increase in FL because of people traveling from the places that will then be hotspots to FL.

Holiday weekends generally result in an uptick in private gatherings (parties, BBQs, informal get togethers). I don’t see Labor Day weekend as a huge bar time like the Wed before Thanksgiving or NYE. It’s possible some additional people traveling to beaches and for overnight stays for the long weekend would frequent bars and restaurants, but in general it would be more private than public gatherings which never had any formal or enforced mitigations.

 

[dovetail65]

I was on a flight Sunday where they forced a kid who looked to be 3-4 years old to wear a mask which resulted in the kid screaming at the top of his lungs for an hour. I can guarantee you that far more droplets of whatever he may have been carrying were expelled through the mask with him screaming like that than would have been if he was sitting there breathing with no mask. I'm not sure which "side" you were referring to but there are clearly situations like that where the mask up "side" lacks any common sense at all.

That is a behavioral thing and we can't use that as basis for rules. It's like adults getting on flights and fighting over it, we don't remake rule becasue that happens, we toss those people off and make clear the fines are serious, like 100K, no games.

I see what you are saying, but we need keep those one by one instances few and far between. The rule is common sense, the parents not being able to calm their own kid is a one time thing and the issue. Yeah, let them relax and try 15 minutes later, don't make it worse, but we can't just dismiss it and base rules on things like poor behavior.

I am betting more adults act out than kids, they sure did at the mall on Sunday

I was at are restaurant and a young couple had 5 kids, a set of twins too, they sat there with masks on perfectly behaved for two hours. took masks off ate, put them on. My wife and I were impressed to say the least.

QUOTE="Heelz2315, post: 9999017, member: 143588"]
By the end of the first quarter of '22 we'll have:

-Vaccines for all age groups (hopefully well over 200M fully vaccinated)
-Booster shots if need be
-Theraputics to help treat and stop Covid if you can't take/won't take the vaccine
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34159342/
-Masks to wear IF you choose

There should be NO need for any further measures to stop the spread of a virus that's so easily stopped/treated.
[/QUOTE]

Easily stopped or treated? Then why are 2000 people a day dying and hospitals having dead bodies in parking lots and ventilators not avaible in places even now? Because it is not easily treatable and we are no where close to giving a choice. We have been giving choices all along and look at how many are dead, near 650 thousand! If that was war everyone would be going crazy right now.

Why don't people see this as a war because it is.

I hope it just flips off, but if it does isn't 2022 a little soon to change and then just let it happen again? Once we are beating it we should not all of a sudden go masks this week, no mask next week, the ever changing rules is what keeps this thing going. We need hammer it to win it. We need prepare that January will be horrible and focus on heavy preventative measures based on history, not hope that it won't be bad or even worse get rid of measures we know have a positive effect just because we have one month of low deaths.

 

[Heelz2315]

The drugs, from what I have read, stops the virus from replicating. Once you've been given a positive test, your Dr can RX you the meds, take for 10 days and you're over it. From what I can decipher from the early trials you stop being contagious after 24-36 hours and are symptom free in 7 or so.

If that's how they work, and they work well hospitalizations should all but stop.

 

[GoofGoof]

By the end of the first quarter of '22 we'll have:

-Vaccines for all age groups (hopefully well over 200M fully vaccinated)
-Booster shots if need be
-Theraputics to help treat and stop Covid if you can't take/won't take the vaccine
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34159342/
-Masks to wear IF you choose

There should be NO need for any further measures to stop the spread of a virus that's so easily stopped/treated.

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

 

[disneygeek90]

The drugs, from what I have read, stops the virus from replicating. Once you've been given a positive test, your Dr can RX you the meds, take for 10 days and you're over it. From what I can decipher from the early trials you stop being contagious after 24-36 hours and are symptom free in 7 or so.

If that's how they work, and they work well hospitalizations should all but stop.

Can't wait to see how many are lining up to take this drug that had 202 participants that won't take the vaccine because it was developed too soon.

 

[Figgy1]

The drugs, from what I have read, stops the virus from replicating. Once you've been given a positive test, your Dr can RX you the meds, take for 10 days and you're over it. From what I can decipher from the early trials you stop being contagious after 24-36 hours and are symptom free in 7 or so.

If that's how they work, and they work well hospitalizations should all but stop.

They have such a treatment for the flu, I still get the shot every year. IMHO an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure

 

[DisneyFan32]

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

Then soon by Spring 2022 as federal transportation will finally lift masks for good for public transportation if 80% people are fully vaccinated as herd immunity.

 

[Figgy1]

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

IMHO we can and should do better. We're at 93-95% vaccinated for childhood diseases that's what we really what should be aiming for this

 

[Heelz2315]

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

Correct - by April 1 we'll should have somewhere around 230M (at least) fully vaccinated in the US. With vaccines and pill treatments widely available I don't know what else we can do to stop/curb it IF there is much left to spread.

 

[mmascari]

Why would you expect a blip from Labor Day in FL? Those blips as a result of holidays are because people let their mitigation guard down and gather differently on holidays. FL doesn't really have any mitigation. People who were mitigating on their own aren't going to change their behavior on a holiday weekend.

I wasn't really expecting a blip up, but a blip down. I expected the Labor Day holiday to artificially depress testing as people didn't go to get tested during the long weekend. Which, the numbers show with both very decreased testing and cases for those 3 days, more than a normal weekend. Then, a slight return on Tuesday and Wednesday to the pre holiday numbers.

It's the Thursday after Labor day until today that doesn't make sense to me. I expected testing to return to the pre holiday levels and cases, while hopefully continuing to trend down, to be at roughly the same pre holiday levels. When I look at the numbers, the most recent testing report (roughly 3 days in the past, the last 2 are always 0) has been consistently much lower than the prior weeks before the holiday. Cases have been trending down too, but not as fast. Certainly not fast enough for the positivity to also go down instead of up.

If the testing number is being backfilled for a week or two though, that would explain it. I would need to pay more attention to the testing level from 2 weeks ago vs farther back and not this week vs last week and the week before. It would also explain why the positivity keeps dropping even while testing appears to be dropping faster than cases, since it's not really. Since if testing is dropping faster than cases, the positivity should be going up not down.

The graphs just look strange for the last two weeks. I'm happy if cases really are dropping dramatically. I'm just not sure if it's real.

I think my concern is, are less cases driving less testing, or is less testing finding less cases but there's really more out there. The first would be great, my fear is it's the second.

 

[mmascari]

"Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 booster shot is 94% effective when administered two months after the first dose in the U.S., the company announced Tuesday, adding that the booster increases antibody levels four to six times higher than one shot alone.

A J&J booster dose given six months out from the first shot appears to be potentially even more protective against Covid, the company said, generating antibodies twelve-fold higher four weeks after the boost, regardless of age.

When given as a booster, the vaccine remained well-tolerated, with side effects generally consistent with those seen after the initial dose, according to J&J.

“We now have generated evidence that a booster shot further increases protection against COVID-19 and is expected to extend the duration of protection significantly,” Paul Stoffels, J&J’s chief scientific officer, said in a statement.

The new data, provided in a press release, helps J&J make a case to the Food and Drug Administration to authorize a booster shot to some 14.8 million Americans who have received the company’s single-dose vaccine so far.

The Biden administration announced plans last month to roll out booster shots for people who received the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. An FDA advisory committee on Friday unanimously recommended Pfizer booster shots to people age 65 and older and other vulnerable Americans. A final decision from the agency is expected any day now.

U.S. health officials said they needed more data on the J&J vaccine before they can recommend boosters of those shots.

The 94% efficacy rate for the J&J booster shot is for the U.S., the company said. Globally, a booster shot given about two months after the first dose is 75% effective against symptomatic infection, according to the company. It also demonstrated 100% effectiveness against severe and critical disease, it said.

The company also released data from a real-world study that found a single dose of its vaccine provided strong and long-lasting protection against Covid-19 related hospitalizations, demonstrating 81% effectiveness after several months.

The new data on a single dose is important as it is “critical to prioritize protecting as many people as possible against hospitalization and death given the continued spread of COVID-19 and rapidly emerging variants,” the company said.

“A single-shot COVID-19 vaccine that is easy to use, distribute and administer that provides strong and long-lasting protection is crucial to vaccinating the global population,” Stoffels said."

J&J says Covid booster shot is 94% effective in the U.S. when given two months after first dose

A J&J booster dose given six months out from the first shot appears to be potentially even more protective against Covid, the company added.

www.cnbc.com

Here's a link to the J&J announcement -

Johnson & Johnson Announces Real-World Evidence and Phase 3 Data Confirming Strong and Long-Lasting Protection of Single-Shot COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S.

Additional data show a booster increases protection 94 percent protection in the U.S. with booster given at two months Four-fold increase in antibodies when given at two months 12-fold increase in antibodies when booster given at six months

www.jnj.com

After J&J booster, Team J&J all the way! Two doses holding over 94%, suck it mRNA.

Oh man, all those people that got J&J because it was one and done gonna be mad when they have to get another

Two is still less than three by my math.

 

[mmascari]

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

I cannot tell if this is good news or sad anymore.

For some regions that will hit way over 80%, it sounds good.
For some regions that aren't even going to hit 80% is sounds sad.

Since we tend to mix regions for lots of stuff, especially for a WDW trip, it feels an awful lot like a swing and a miss.

 

[dovetail65]

I wasn't really expecting a blip up, but a blip down. I expected the Labor Day holiday to artificially depress testing as people didn't go to get tested during the long weekend. Which, the numbers show with both very decreased testing and cases for those 3 days, more than a normal weekend. Then, a slight return on Tuesday and Wednesday to the pre holiday numbers.

It's the Thursday after Labor day until today that doesn't make sense to me. I expected testing to return to the pre holiday levels and cases, while hopefully continuing to trend down, to be at roughly the same pre holiday levels. When I look at the numbers, the most recent testing report (roughly 3 days in the past, the last 2 are always 0) has been consistently much lower than the prior weeks before the holiday. Cases have been trending down too, but not as fast. Certainly not fast enough for the positivity to also go down instead of up.

If the testing number is being backfilled for a week or two though, that would explain it. I would need to pay more attention to the testing level from 2 weeks ago vs farther back and not this week vs last week and the week before. It would also explain why the positivity keeps dropping even while testing appears to be dropping faster than cases, since it's not really. Since if testing is dropping faster than cases, the positivity should be going up not down.

The graphs just look strange for the last two weeks. I'm happy if cases really are dropping dramatically. I'm just not sure if it's real.

I think my concern is, are less cases driving less testing, or is less testing finding less cases but there's really more out there. The first would be great, my fear is it's the second.


View attachment 588331
View attachment 588332

Just a comment on the graph,not your post.

The problem with this is the lowest part of the graph the numbers are worse than what we had when everyone was afraid and we didn't leave our home for four months. It's actually near the worst we had in summer and not too far worse than than the average in our bad January!

People see the graphs and it is misleading it's like yea only 10 thousand cases. When that is in the hundreds or even tens and I do not mean tens of thousands that is we are where I feel we need to be to lift all mandates.

After J&J booster, Team J&J all the way! Two doses holding over 94%, suck it mRNA.

Hehe,

For the record that is not peer reviewed, does not use many Americans if any at all in the study and they do not say where they are 8 months after the 2nd shot.

 

[GoofGoof]

IMHO we can and should do better. We're at 93-95% vaccinated for childhood diseases that's what we really should be aiming for this

We could be even better off or we could be worse, it really all depends on how wide spread vaccine mandates are for workplaces and schools and also how far we go with vaccine passports. It’s quite obvious at this point that enough people won’t just decide to get the vaccine on their own.

As far as childhood vaccines, many of those took decades to get to 90%+ vaccinated. The measles vaccine came out in the 1950s but measles wasn’t eliminated in the US until almost 50 years later. Not saying it will take that long for Covid since we have better technology, better logistics and more money backing this vaccine but it may take some additional time beyond March 2022.

I am also assuming only 60% uptake in children since the vaccines will still be under EUA in March 2022. By the end of 2022 and maybe even by the start of school Fall 2022 they should have full approval and school should mandate vaccinations for all kids. If that 60% goes to 90%+ that adds 6 or 7% to the total and gets us closer to 90%.

 

[DisneyCane]

Quick math on vaccinations. We are currently at 55% of the total population fully vaccinated. We are at a pace where we are vaccinating almost an additional 1% of the population each week and if more and more mandates and passports continue to pop up that pace could actually grow. If that pace just continues as is through the end of the year we would get to 70% of the total population fully vaccinated. Once the rest of children are approved that adds another 50M people or 15% of the population to the mix. Assuming somewhere around 60-65% of those kids are vaccinated relatively quickly that adds another 10% to the total population number and gets us to 80% of the total population fully vaccinated. After that the pace will likely slow but it’s possible we get to somewhere north of 80% of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of Q1 2022. If that really happens hopefully we see cases flatline and while it’s not likely that 80% is good enough for full herd immunity nationally we may see community spread under control in certain regions with high vaccine uptake.

Except for places where school districts require COVID vaccines, I don't think the 5-11 uptake will be 60%+. After looking at data, I'm perplexed as to why so much focus is put on the 5-11 year old vaccine availability, specifically with respect to WDW mitigation policies.

According to data from the CDC, through 9/15/2021, there were 79 COVID deaths in children 5-11. Also according to the CDC, there are 26,446,096 children in the population who are 5-11. That's 0.0003% of the population from 5-11 that has died of COVID-19. Is this really a risk that needs to be mitigated? It's under 1 in 333,333. I don't know how many of these 79 had significant comorbidities but I'd guess a lot of them. The risk of a child in this age bracket dying from COVID is nearly zero without vaccines.

 

[DisneyFan32]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[dovetail65]

MSN

www.msn.com

He always back the science, but he is for the 3rd shot once a majority of Dr's and the science deems it safe and worthwhile. That is why it seems he changes his tune, but the information changes too. 2 months ago he was betting on the3rd booster.

He is actually saying we possibly will need yearly shots like the flu shot and he may change that depending on new studies.

 

[GoofGoof]

I cannot tell if this is good news or sad anymore.

For some regions that will hit way over 80%, it sounds good.
For some regions that aren't even going to hit 80% is sounds sad.

Since we tend to mix regions for lots of stuff, especially for a WDW trip, it feels an awful lot like a swing and a miss.

I can’t see how going from 55% to 80%+ would be viewed as anything other than a good thing.

 

[GoofGoof]

Except for places where school districts require COVID vaccines, I don't think the 5-11 uptake will be 60%+. After looking at data, I'm perplexed as to why so much focus is put on the 5-11 year old vaccine availability, specifically with respect to WDW mitigation policies.

According to data from the CDC, through 9/15/2021, there were 79 COVID deaths in children 5-11. Also according to the CDC, there are 26,446,096 children in the population who are 5-11. That's 0.0003% of the population from 5-11 that has died of COVID-19. Is this really a risk that needs to be mitigated? It's under 1 in 333,333. I don't know how many of these 79 had significant comorbidities but I'd guess a lot of them. The risk of a child in this age bracket dying from COVID is nearly zero without vaccines.

How many kids die from the chicken pox? Do we say don’t vaccinate them then? This whole narrative is really, really tiring. People are so hung up on masks in school that they are convinced kids are invincible due to covid.