Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

Your youngest and my oldest should meet. Typically afraid of needles, he opted to be late to school and join the walk in clinic the morning after 12+ authorization (he was newly 13 at the time). I'm sure the county's $50 incentive helped calm his fear, but we were proud parents that day. And he's done more to convince his circle of friends to get the shot than we could have hoped.

My eldest was in the second day after 12-16 was approved. Some friends were hold outs the first week. Until they determined they would be left out of everything. The vaccinated kids plan was to ONLY hang out with other vaccinated kids. The hold outs flipped and got vaccinated immediately.

No official vaccine passports. Just a culture of either you're vaccinated or we want nothing to do with you. There were just to many restrictions to deal with to hang out with an unvaccinated person they were ready to drop once everyone was vaccinated. FOMO is a huge driver.

 

[Andrew C]

Do they have those charts on a per/100K metric along with showing both the per/100K value and it's percent change?

I always find these percent increase graphs that don't have other context hard to understand.

I mean, sure that CA change of 21.5% and 14K cases isn't great. But, CA has a huge population, they're running something like 35/100K. That's not great, 35 isn't good, we want it back down under 3. But for comparison, FL is around 99/100K. Yeah, it's only going up at 11%, but OMG it's sitting at 99.

I cannot tell from those graphs if those states are moving from "ok ish to not great" or if they're already at "world on fire and the heat is on" getting worse.

Yes, they have those. I was posting not really to display the raw number of cases, but to show the percentage of increase (or decrease if applicable) in the one week trends for each state.

 

[sullyinMT]

Yes, they have those. I was posting not really to display the raw number of cases, but to show the percentage of increase (or decrease if applicable) in the one week trends for each state.

I certainly see the value there when comparing one state to itself. Or similarly populated/dense states. It certainly helps to look at all of this through multiple angles. Those other large states (except maybe TX, not sure), also started their recent surge later in the game or re-implemented various mitigations that flatten but lengthen an outbreak. Other important points to mention.

I really hope your FL graph is a reason for optimism. They/we could use it.

 

[Andrew C]

I certainly see the value there when comparing one state to itself. Or similarly populated/dense states. It certainly helps to look at all of this through multiple angles. Those other large states (except maybe TX, not sure), also started their recent surge later in the game or re-implemented various mitigations that flatten but lengthen an outbreak. Other important points to mention.

I really hope your FL graph is a reason for optimism. They/we could use it.

Yeah. It is pretty obvious the case count per 100K is way higher in Florida compared to California for example. I just found it promising their 7 day trend is no longer increasing. Of course, we would hope to start seeing it decrease looking at the picture a week from now. And then, typically, hospitalizations will follow. We will see...

 

[mmascari]

Yes, they have those. I was posting not really to display the raw number of cases, but to show the percentage of increase (or decrease if applicable) in the one week trends for each state.

The percent isn't useful on it's own though. It needs some basis to know what's going on.

There was a recent Twitter thread where someone was trying to say Vermont was doing worse than Florida because VT has a 98% increase in 14 day Hospitalized while FL only has 24% despite VT having 67% fully vaccinated to FL 52%. Comparing 98% to 24% certainly sounds like it's worse.

The ratio of comments calling them a dumbass was astronomical as they doubled and tripled down on VT being worse.

VT has a daily average of 26 and 4/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 14 last week and 26 this week, there's the 98% increase. Not great, but hardly the end of the world. Small increases in very small numbers are huge percentage increases.

FL has a daily average of 17,215 and 80/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 13,880 last week and 17,215 this week, there's the 24% increase. It's a smaller percentage of a huge number.

Those grids had the raw cases and the percent, so there was some context. But, to compare between them, we really need the normalized number for sample size. It does no good to compare something like the 26 VT to 17,215 FL. That looks insanely different. Comparing the 4/100K to 80/100K provides the real context on the gap between them. It still super bad, but not quite as insanely different.

 

[Andrew C]

The percent isn't useful on it's own though. It needs some basis to know what's going on.

There was a recent Twitter thread where someone was trying to say Vermont was doing worse than Florida because VT has a 98% increase in 14 day Hospitalized while FL only has 24% despite VT having 67% fully vaccinated to FL 52%. Comparing 98% to 24% certainly sounds like it's worse.

The ratio of comments calling them a dumbass was astronomical as they doubled and tripled down on VT being worse.

VT has a daily average of 26 and 4/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 14 last week and 26 this week, there's the 98% increase. Not great, but hardly the end of the world. Small increases in very small numbers are huge percentage increases.

FL has a daily average of 17,215 and 80/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 13,880 last week and 17,215 this week, there's the 24% increase. It's a smaller percentage of a huge number.

Those grids had the raw cases and the percent, so there was some context. But, to compare between them, we really need the normalized number for sample size. It does no good to compare something like the 26 VT to 17,215 FL. That looks insanely different. Comparing the 4/100K to 80/100K provides the real context on the gap between them. It still super bad, but not quite as insanely different.

I am just throwing some data out there. I have been following the one week trends for these states for a while so I find the changes to be interesting (and this is what officials seem to look at when tracking direction). And I always throw out the other most populated states to see how their trends are going for comparison. Typically, this is where most of our cases are going to come from....But people are free to go here and look at the 2 week trends, cases per 100K, data from smaller states, etc. if they would like....

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

 

[sullyinMT]

The percent isn't useful on it's own though. It needs some basis to know what's going on.

There was a recent Twitter thread where someone was trying to say Vermont was doing worse than Florida because VT has a 98% increase in 14 day Hospitalized while FL only has 24% despite VT having 67% fully vaccinated to FL 52%. Comparing 98% to 24% certainly sounds like it's worse.

The ratio of comments calling them a dumbass was astronomical as they doubled and tripled down on VT being worse.

VT has a daily average of 26 and 4/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 14 last week and 26 this week, there's the 98% increase. Not great, but hardly the end of the world. Small increases in very small numbers are huge percentage increases.

FL has a daily average of 17,215 and 80/100K Hospitalized. So, if it was 13,880 last week and 17,215 this week, there's the 24% increase. It's a smaller percentage of a huge number.

Those grids had the raw cases and the percent, so there was some context. But, to compare between them, we really need the normalized number for sample size. It does no good to compare something like the 26 VT to 17,215 FL. That looks insanely different. Comparing the 4/100K to 80/100K provides the real context on the gap between them. It still super bad, but not quite as insanely different.

We have multiple counties here with under 10k people. An outbreak on one ranch, or at the copper mine, and it looks like their world is falling apart for a week or two. Relatively, it is. But going from 1 case/week to 75 is hardly a blip on the national or even state radar. Yet, even the CDC does this in their weekly reporting. Comparing a region to itself, or the whole national picture in terms of previous week or peak %, is more appropriate.

 

[mmascari]

I am just throwing some data out there. I have been following the one week trends for these states for a while so I find the changes to be interesting (and this is what officials seem to look at when tracking direction). And I always throw out the other most populated states to see how their trends are going for comparison. Typically, this is where most of our cases are going to come from....But people are free to go here and look at the 2 week trends, cases per 100K, data from smaller states, etc. if they would like....

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

Looking at the percent within just one state, week to week to see how it's changing in that state makes sense. Know it's going up or down within that state has value.

It was the stack of 5 graphs that gave me pause. If the goal was to compare those with each other. That's the part I was questioning. Plus, I just read that Twitter thread and I may have been reacting more to that, assuming the goal was to compare between states. That's why I asked.

 

[Andrew C]

Looking at the percent within just one state, week to week to see how it's changing in that state makes sense. Know it's going up or down within that state has value.

It was the stack of 5 graphs that gave me pause. If the goal was to compare those with each other. That's the part I was questioning. Plus, I just read that Twitter thread and I may have been reacting more to that, assuming the goal was to compare between states. That's why I asked.

lol. Yeah, I think you are reading too much into my post. Just showing which of the most populated states have 7 day case averages that are increasing and which ones are decreasing....I have no secret motive.

 

[mmascari]

We have multiple counties here with under 10k people. An outbreak on one ranch, or at the copper mine, and it looks like their world is falling apart for a week or two. Relatively, it is. But going from 1 case/week to 75 is hardly a blip on the national or even state radar. Yet, even the CDC does this in their weekly reporting. Comparing a region to itself, or the whole national picture in terms of previous week or peak %, is more appropriate.

I agree, this is a huge reporting problem.

The rate increase is really small groups is very misleading.

Likewise, even the normalized to 100K values are difficult in small groups. There's only 6 groups of 100K in VT, 10 in MT, while there's 214 in FL. Better than the raw numbers, but not great. Even worse when done at a county level with less than 1 group of 100K.

 

[Club34]

Both

Then I concur. This issue (ability to lead/work together) is intertwined with our mission (my mission?) to thwart this pandemic. However, it won't happen easily if it all with our current discourse. You can have an excellent clinical team, clinical theory, and what have you, but it will go close to nowhere if there is not alliance. It will sputter.

Our kids are watching it all. The so-called good people. The so-called bad people. And the discourse between the two. This is the example being set.

 

[Club34]

This might provide some help on why the original study was flawed:

Flawed ivermectin preprint highlights challenges of COVID drug studies

The study’s withdrawal from a preprint platform deals a blow to the anti-parasite drug’s chances as a COVID treatment, researchers say.

www.nature.com

studies showing it ineffective can also have flaws ( the following used a dosage below what was considered effective, and was underpowered):

IVERCOVID19 Study in Argentina Disappoints—Study Underdoses & Ivermectin Comes Up Short

A much-awaited ivermectin study in Argentina disappointed those looking for positive results as the IVERCOVID19 trial, sponsored by the Corrientes Institute of Cardiology “Juana F. Cabral” with funding from the Ministry of Public Health, Province of Corrientes, Argentina, came out with subpar...

trialsitenews.com

While the very large together trial dropped Ivermectin because it was shown ineffective:

Go to 29 1/2 minute markof presentation

August 6, 2021: Early Treatment of COVID-19 with Repurposed Therapies: The TOGETHER Adaptive Platform Trial (Edward Mills, PhD, FRCP) - Rethinking Clinical Trials

Speaker Edward Mills, PhD, FRCP Professor Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact McMaster University, Canada Topic Early Treatment of COVID-19 with Repurposed Therapies: The TOGETHER Adaptive Platform […]

rethinkingclinicaltrials.org

Thank you. I can't get at the 2nd one it's behind a paywall, unfortunately. I may try to attack it later to see if there is a workaround.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Disney Experience]

Thank you. I can't get at the 2nd one it's behind a paywall, unfortunately. I may try to attack it later to see if there is a workaround.

Always glad to be of help.

Here is the paper itself. The original link that you could not get to was just a summary without a link to the actual study.

Ivermectin to prevent hospitalizations in patients with COVID-19 (IVERCOR-COVID19) a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial - BMC Infectious Diseases

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has changed our lives. The scientific community has been investigating re-purposed treatments to prevent disease progression in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients. Objective To determine whether ivermectin treatment can...

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com

 

[brb1006]

Disney World Actors' Equity Union Reaches Agreement on Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine, Paving the Way for More Entertainment at Walt Disney World

An agreement between Disney World and their actors' union will require mandatory vaccines before the end of the year for Cast Members

blogmickey.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

Oh, BlogMickey... your choice of photo is sad...

 

[MisterPenguin]

Remember, while being in the downward side of a peak is better than being on the upward side.... it's still a peak. Until you hit the valley in which only 1K people are testing positive per day, you still have 24K testing positive. And even then, the downward slope can stall or go up again. The minimal valley is the time to be relieved. Until then... it's bad. Very bad.

And the hospitalizations and death upward slope hasn't even hit their plateaus yet.

 

[dreday3]

Remember, while being in the downward side of a peak is better than being on the upward side.... it's still a peak. Until you hit the valley in which only 1K people are testing positive per day, you still have 24K testing positive. And even then, the downward slope can stall or go up again. The minimal valley is the time to be relieved. Until then... it's bad. Very bad.

And the hospitalizations and death upward slope hasn't even hit their plateaus yet.

View attachment 582106

I mean, obviously I'm invested in Florida at this point because our trip is fast-approaching (57 days).

I'll be honest in that I really, really want to go. All I can do is grasp on to the idea the cases will start dropping and in 57 days be much lower. We'll all be vaccinated, most of us with a booster at that point if they go on as scheduled. I have extra vacation days stocked up in case we need to quarantine when we get back and we have money (and extra vacation days) to rent a car in case someone is positive there and we have to end up driving home.

Obviously things can happen that will make going then doubtful, but for now...

(i need this vacation )

 

[MisterPenguin]

I mean, obviously I'm invested in Florida at this point because our trip is fast-approaching (57 days).

I'll be honest in that I really, really want to go. All I can do is grasp on to the idea the cases will start dropping and in 57 days be much lower. We'll all be vaccinated, most of us with a booster at that point if they go on as scheduled. I have extra vacation days stocked up in case we need to quarantine when we get back and we have money (and extra vacation days) to rent a car in case someone is positive there and we have to end up driving home.

Obviously things can happen that will make going then doubtful, but for now...

(i need this vacation )

I'm cancelling my first week of October trip.

I might not have if the airlines and WDW required vaccination proof.

 

[dreday3]

I'm cancelling my first week of October trip.

I might not have if the airlines and WDW required vaccination proof.

I'm just not there yet.
Everyone else going on the trip is pretty much full steam ahead.

I have to be honest, I worry about what others would think of us going. My parents are very for it. My dad is 82 and in a very "you only live once" stage!

We would be wearing masks, we don't really watch fireworks so don't plan on standing in those crowds.

Ugh. Florida.