Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

KrzyKtty

Well-Known Member
Possible November-December when Thanksgiving and Christmas is about to start soon.
That will probably depend entirely upon what is going on with the infection and hospitalization levels at that point. Those are the biggest travel times of the year, I don't see the masked mandates being lifted specifically for that time. Unless the government feels that travel is safer again. That will depend probably on vaccination rates and infection rates at that time.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Many pro-vaccination folks pushing to force or scare people into vaccinating are actually being counter productive and reinforcing the reasons for the Wait and See attitude and getting the no-vax folks to dig in their heels. Everyone does not adapt nor accept change at the same pace or way.
This is why I have come to the conclusion that the time for debate is mostly over. Not saying debate here between posters…we can talk until we are blue in the face and it doesn’t change much, but the time where the government and powers to be solely try to convince people to freely choose the vaccine by presenting facts. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink, especially when he’s convinced it’s not really water. We have moved on to plan B. More and more companies need to require vaccines for workers. More and more venues need to require vaccines for large crowds. People don’t have to get vaccinated, but they also don’t have to work at Disney or go to a concert. Life is full of choices, time to put up or shut up for the unvaccinated.
 

Heelz2315

Well-Known Member
I look at the John Hopkins case numbers daily. Since early July Saturday’s number have always been higher than the other days of the week. IE the peaks. Today’s case number only increased by 10% this week. They had been moving at between 30-40%|week since the second week of July.

A sign things could be slowing and a turn coming.
 
Last edited:

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
I mean, it’s certainly possible.
It really isn't. The only mechanism by which a vaccine could plausibly trigger a delayed side effect is by an autoimmune reaction. And as noted time and time again, the absolute longest latency that has ever been observed for any vaccine-triggered autoimmune reaction is about 6 weeks. The usual time frame, though, happens much sooner.

Now, this doesn't mean that the side effects can't linger for far longer (I think this might be one of those points that has caused confusion). Guillan-Barre syndrome can take months to completely recover from, and some of the consequences may never completely resolve. But fortunately, Guillan-Barre syndrome from any vaccine is extremely rare. It occurs far more commonly after an infection.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Do we know that? How effective are masks and distancing vs. vaccines? And how effective are the 2 together. That’s what I’m wondering.
Did you ignore the rest of my statement on purpose? Even if they were just as effective in limited places the fact that you cannot wear one 24/7 make them much less effective of an option.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
For small business owners with life savings and financial future at risk, how did it feel when the government declared your business "Not Essential"?

In hindsight everything worked out. Did you feel this way going into the shutdowns?

This requires a long, thoughtful answer that will bore everyone to death. Maybe half that answer will only bore everyone half to death.

It did not feel great when we were listed as "non-essential," but that was not a personal slight; it was a fact. I sell goods that (somehow) people can live without. (Music! How can you live without music?! But I digress...)

Business was already a struggle, so yes, on the first day after we were shut down, I was mostly curled up on the couch with a quarter of a xanax thinking, "What the hell are we going to do? We could barely pay the bills while we were open?"

One day. That's it.

Then, it was about making plans to fix it. I would read all the local ordinances (which kept changing) and find ways to get things done. At one point I tested actually walking my dog to one of my store locations (a few blocks from my house) so I could pull merch home and sell it online. It turned out not to be necessary because ultimately there were exceptions in the orders where one person could enter the building. But that was indicative of my thought process, and that's how we proceeded. I ended up keeping one full time employee on at each location to ring up less than I was paying them every day (via phone orders, curbside pick ups, and internet sales) while I full-time delivered groceries for Shipt (like Instacart) so I could pay my employees and some of the rent. To be honest, I don't know other business owners who went to that extreme. That's "how we do." Personal responsibility and all that. I absolutely *refused* to lose my house and have to tell my husband that we were losing our house because of my business going down. (to that end, I saved every bit of cash I could find, hidden in various places.) But I was fairly certain the business was going to go down, if slowly, maybe after Christmas. I don't have an attorney on retainer. I don't have an accountant working for me.

Some fortunate things: I had taken a "local government academy" class offered by our city in 2016. I was then appointed to an advisory board to the City Commission and served for three years. In 2020, the mayor was a graduate of my LGA class. He would call me and ask me how certain things would help or hinder my business. I could call him at any time. He would take my suggestions to the County meetings of mayors (along with others, I'm sure.) So I had input. We entrepreneurs are a scrappy bunch. When there was talk of a second shutdown, the Mayor gave me the contact info for someone who sat on the County Commission. He heard me out as well. I was going as far as telling him, "Although my business is not essential, it's much safer to shop here than Walmart or Publix. It's not unusual to have one customer and one employee at a time. We can work on an appointment basis, etc." I had plenty of ideas how to operate safely if necessary. He told me the County had no appetite for imposing a second shutdown. Also: code enforcement was not out to get anyone. If you were flaunting on the news that your gym was open with no masks, yes, they had to come after you. You wouldn't believe the number of businesses that suddenly put curtains (or plastic garbage bags) up over their windows. I thought that would invite trouble (we didn't do it) but no. Restaurants were able to set up tables in parking lots (which normally would require permitting.) As long as businesses were being careful and not flaunting it, they left us alone to do business.

We were closed for just about two months. Sales were less than one-tenth of typical sales. But, importantly, I was able to renegotiate things during that time. Most credit cards gave a three month break, and then put us on a payment plan. Same with car payments and mortgage (although we ended up paying the mortgage on time. My husband was instantly laid off, but the unemployment paid the mortgage.) My business loans first held off payments for three months, then extended our loan without raising the interest rate, cutting payments in half. These things were huge. Landlords and vendors really didn't want to make concessions, so I had to be forceful with them. I ended up getting maybe 20-25% off the rents for March, April, and May (even though we were closed for the entire month of April.) But that was something. Re: vendors: I was up front with them, but ultimately I paid only one of them so I would still have access to inventory, and the other vendors would have to wait with tiny holdover payments until we were up and running again (and what would that look like? Open but slow sales?) (If I had only made minimal payments to all vendors, I likely would have no access to inventory.) They were cool, not pushy, and all their gambles on us paid off in the end. We ended up making most payments ahead of time.

We didn't get the PPP loan until June. It was only a few thousand dollars, but it had gotten pretty dire by then. I was able to tell the two full timers they could work as many hours as they wanted (and there was less pressure on them to produce as much as they were being paid, so I was less cranky.) I spent 100% of the PPP on payroll. That loan was forgiven eventually, and we did get a second one for the same amount (even though payroll was higher at that time.) That has not been forgiven yet, but probably will. It wasn't until I think August we got the EIDL loan. That will have to be paid back over 30 years. That was more of a psychological boost than anything else. It made me less afraid to invest in inventory (which I had been selling at a loss just to have some money coming in throughout the shutdown) which in turn, increased sales. And again, I could pay that whole loan back in full right now. Maybe I will in a few years if things go well.

Not to pat myself on the back, but as someone who got kicked out of the house at 17, I know how to take care of myself and to go all out and make sure I don't end up in the gutter; and I know a lot of business owners who did not go all out like I did. I'm sure some businesses would have gone under regardless, and I'm sure some worked very hard and still went under, anyway. But some, for example, didn't have their employees on the books, so they didn't qualify for or were afraid to apply for the PPP. (Or they would just get a grant for $1,000 per owner.) I know some business owners who would rather sit back and blame others (including the government) while their businesses went down.

And again, business was better once we reopened. Even at 50% capacity restrictions - much like WDW, we never get to high capacity except for a few days a year, so that made no practical difference.

I think everyone has learned some things: 1. Full shutdown isn't necessary. Businesses can operate safely with reasonable restrictions, even non-essential ones. 2. While we were blindsided this time, next time government assistance should be swift and simple. I'm certain some businesses went under or began to go under waiting for that to kick in. We were fortunate (and scrappy) enough to be able to hang in there until assistance arrived. I realize that's not the same for everyone, and different businesses experienced different issues (restaurants, movie theaters, etc.) I'm also certain money was given out inappropriately or used inappropriately in some cases.

There are all kinds of people; therefore there are all kinds of business owners. Some had money to begin with. Some never did. Some had families to fall back on and help (I most certainly did not.) Some had spouses or children able to help out. Some chose to get out or retire early.

I knew I had *absolutely* *no* *choice* but to keep fighting until it was gone, and to protect my home. For reasons explained above, it never came to that, and I'm very grateful for that. We are in better shape now than we were in 2019. We were forced to learn lessons faster. We invested in more inventory. We invested in more employees. We are working on getting their wages up. We have excellent credit (both business and personal.) All of our local competition are still standing as well, which is some indication that we were just lucky to be in a business that was pandemic-proof (but not shutdown proof.)

If it came down to another shutdown for a month or so, another PPP deposit right away would go a long way to making me get through it with a whole lot less stress, even if it got added to my EIDL loan to be paid back. Employees could stay home and get paid. I could sit here and argue with you guys all day. (Oh, get real, I'd find a way to work.)
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Do we know that? How effective are masks and distancing vs. vaccines? And how effective are the 2 together. That’s what I’m wondering.
I feel like the two of you are talking past each other.

You are asking about the layering effect, I think? What is the effectiveness of all three layers of protection (vaccines, masks, distancing) vs the effectiveness of one layer (vaccine) vs two layers (masks + distancing)?
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
I feel like the two of you are talking past each other.

You are asking about the layering effect, I think? What is the effectiveness of all three layers of protection (vaccines, masks, distancing) vs the effectiveness of one layer (vaccine) vs two layers (masks + distancing)?
Yes - that’s correct.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
This requires a long, thoughtful answer that will bore everyone to death. Maybe half that answer will only bore everyone half to death.

It did not feel great when we were listed as "non-essential," but that was not a personal slight; it was a fact. I sell goods that (somehow) people can live without. (Music! How can you live without music?! But I digress...)

Business was already a struggle, so yes, on the first day after we were shut down, I was mostly curled up on the couch with a quarter of a xanax thinking, "What the hell are we going to do? We could barely pay the bills while we were open?"

One day. That's it.

Then, it was about making plans to fix it. I would read all the local ordinances (which kept changing) and find ways to get things done. At one point I tested actually walking my dog to one of my store locations (a few blocks from my house) so I could pull merch home and sell it online. It turned out not to be necessary because ultimately there were exceptions in the orders where one person could enter the building. But that was indicative of my thought process, and that's how we proceeded. I ended up keeping one full time employee on at each location to ring up less than I was paying them every day (via phone orders, curbside pick ups, and internet sales) while I full-time delivered groceries for Shipt (like Instacart) so I could pay my employees and some of the rent. To be honest, I don't know other business owners who went to that extreme. That's "how we do." Personal responsibility and all that. I absolutely *refused* to lose my house and have to tell my husband that we were losing our house because of my business going down. (to that end, I saved every bit of cash I could find, hidden in various places.) But I was fairly certain the business was going to go down, if slowly, maybe after Christmas. I don't have an attorney on retainer. I don't have an accountant working for me.

Some fortunate things: I had taken a "local government academy" class offered by our city in 2016. I was then appointed to an advisory board to the City Commission and served for three years. In 2020, the mayor was a graduate of my LGA class. He would call me and ask me how certain things would help or hinder my business. I could call him at any time. He would take my suggestions to the County meetings of mayors (along with others, I'm sure.) So I had input. We entrepreneurs are a scrappy bunch. When there was talk of a second shutdown, the Mayor gave me the contact info for someone who sat on the County Commission. He heard me out as well. I was going as far as telling him, "Although my business is not essential, it's much safer to shop here than Walmart or Publix. It's not unusual to have one customer and one employee at a time. We can work on an appointment basis, etc." I had plenty of ideas how to operate safely if necessary. He told me the County had no appetite for imposing a second shutdown. Also: code enforcement was not out to get anyone. If you were flaunting on the news that your gym was open with no masks, yes, they had to come after you. You wouldn't believe the number of businesses that suddenly put curtains (or plastic garbage bags) up over their windows. I thought that would invite trouble (we didn't do it) but no. Restaurants were able to set up tables in parking lots (which normally would require permitting.) As long as businesses were being careful and not flaunting it, they left us alone to do business.

We were closed for just about two months. Sales were less than one-tenth of typical sales. But, importantly, I was able to renegotiate things during that time. Most credit cards gave a three month break, and then put us on a payment plan. Same with car payments and mortgage (although we ended up paying the mortgage on time. My husband was instantly laid off, but the unemployment paid the mortgage.) My business loans first held off payments for three months, then extended our loan without raising the interest rate, cutting payments in half. These things were huge. Landlords and vendors really didn't want to make concessions, so I had to be forceful with them. I ended up getting maybe 20-25% off the rents for March, April, and May (even though we were closed for the entire month of April.) But that was something. Re: vendors: I was up front with them, but ultimately I paid only one of them so I would still have access to inventory, and the other vendors would have to wait with tiny holdover payments until we were up and running again (and what would that look like? Open but slow sales?) (If I had only made minimal payments to all vendors, I likely would have no access to inventory.) They were cool, not pushy, and all their gambles on us paid off in the end. We ended up making most payments ahead of time.

We didn't get the PPP loan until June. It was only a few thousand dollars, but it had gotten pretty dire by then. I was able to tell the two full timers they could work as many hours as they wanted (and there was less pressure on them to produce as much as they were being paid, so I was less cranky.) I spent 100% of the PPP on payroll. That loan was forgiven eventually, and we did get a second one for the same amount (even though payroll was higher at that time.) That has not been forgiven yet, but probably will. It wasn't until I think August we got the EIDL loan. That will have to be paid back over 30 years. That was more of a psychological boost than anything else. It made me less afraid to invest in inventory (which I had been selling at a loss just to have some money coming in throughout the shutdown) which in turn, increased sales. And again, I could pay that whole loan back in full right now. Maybe I will in a few years if things go well.

Not to pat myself on the back, but as someone who got kicked out of the house at 17, I know how to take care of myself and to go all out and make sure I don't end up in the gutter; and I know a lot of business owners who did not go all out like I did. I'm sure some businesses would have gone under regardless, and I'm sure some worked very hard and still went under, anyway. But some, for example, didn't have their employees on the books, so they didn't qualify for or were afraid to apply for the PPP. (Or they would just get a grant for $1,000 per owner.) I know some business owners who would rather sit back and blame others (including the government) while their businesses went down.

And again, business was better once we reopened. Even at 50% capacity restrictions - much like WDW, we never get to high capacity except for a few days a year, so that made no practical difference.

I think everyone has learned some things: 1. Full shutdown isn't necessary. Businesses can operate safely with reasonable restrictions, even non-essential ones. 2. While we were blindsided this time, next time government assistance should be swift and simple. I'm certain some businesses went under or began to go under waiting for that to kick in. We were fortunate (and scrappy) enough to be able to hang in there until assistance arrived. I realize that's not the same for everyone, and different businesses experienced different issues (restaurants, movie theaters, etc.) I'm also certain money was given out inappropriately or used inappropriately in some cases.

There are all kinds of people; therefore there are all kinds of business owners. Some had money to begin with. Some never did. Some had families to fall back on and help (I most certainly did not.) Some had spouses or children able to help out. Some chose to get out or retire early.

I knew I had *absolutely* *no* *choice* but to keep fighting until it was gone, and to protect my home. For reasons explained above, it never came to that, and I'm very grateful for that. We are in better shape now than we were in 2019. We were forced to learn lessons faster. We invested in more inventory. We invested in more employees. We are working on getting their wages up. We have excellent credit (both business and personal.) All of our local competition are still standing as well, which is some indication that we were just lucky to be in a business that was pandemic-proof (but not shutdown proof.)

If it came down to another shutdown for a month or so, another PPP deposit right away would go a long way to making me get through it with a whole lot less stress, even if it got added to my EIDL loan to be paid back. Employees could stay home and get paid. I could sit here and argue with you guys all day. (Oh, get real, I'd find a way to work.)
Music is always essential. In fact I could argue the point that it’s the most essential thing we have.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yes - that’s correct.
You asked why we would have to keep unvaccinated people out of workplaces or other venues if people can just wear masks or distance and my answer was that masks are no replacement for the vaccine. You said you would like to see data on that. Sure vaccine + mask + distancing is a higher level of protection than just vaccine but I don’t think there’s any way to argue that mask + distancing is equal or better than any combination that involves the vaccine. That’s why you keep unvaccinated people from mixing in public with each other and/or the vaccinated for long periods of time
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Well that’s why I’m asking for data because I’m curious.
To be clear you are asking for data on whether mask + distancing alone is as effective as the vaccine?

I think we have many months of data now with millions of infections as evidence. In this current wave the vast majority of cases (still 95%+ in Orange County FL‘s updates) are in unvaccinated. Te vaccine works vey well.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
You have data that shows this?
No, I don’t have a formal study but all you have to do is read or listen to these talking points. It’s often claims that people would be better of to “build their immune systems” instead of “using chemicals” and supplements are big part of doing that.

I guess that could be true if I knew any anti-vaxxers but I don't. The only anti-vaxxers I know about are the ones from early on who have done a 180 since that time.
You only get information from people who know personally? You’ve never read a book or even an article to learn something?

Why not JnJ? That one isn’t mRNA based?
It’s not mRNA based but still ultimately caused your body to produce the spike protein.

I mean, it’s certainly possible.
How would it be possible?
 

DC0703

Well-Known Member
Very true. My friends / coworkers who won’t get the vaccine are using the “bribes and mandates” as an excuse to not get it.
The key word here is "excuse". Earlier this year, many of the unvaccinated were stating that the continued mask mandates were the reason they wouldn't get the vaccine. They said that if mask mandates were relaxed for the vaccinated, they would be more inclined to get the shot. When that actually happened, they moved on to a different excuse. The reality is that even if the country nixxed the bribes and mandates tomorrow, there will always be another reason not to get vaccinated. Ultimately, they do not trust it due to their reliance on misinformation.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
To be clear you are asking for data on whether mask + distancing alone is as effective as the vaccine?
You are changing the phrasing.

I want to know how effective masks & distancing are vs. the vaccine. Yes. Not to prove anything, I’m just curious.

I’m also wondering how effective the vaccine, masks and distancing all 3 together are.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
The key word here is "excuse". Earlier this year, many of the unvaccinated were stating that the continued mask mandates were the reason they wouldn't get the vaccine. They said that if mask mandates were relaxed for the vaccinated, they would be more inclined to get the shot. When that actually happened, they moved on to a different excuse. The reality is that even if the country nixxed the bribes and mandates tomorrow, there will always be another reason not to get vaccinated. Ultimately, they do not trust it due to their reliance on misinformation.
Two key leaders that people look up to and trust who can help convince their customers and congregation to roll up their arms

Family Doctors
Pastors
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
You are changing the phrasing.

I want to know how effective masks & distancing are vs. the vaccine. Yes. Not to prove anything, I’m just curious.

I’m also wondering how effective the vaccine, masks and distancing all 3 together are.

Well, we all know you can still get delta either way (although seems less of a chance when vaccinated), sooo....

Getting delta using only masks and distancing - higher chance of hospitalization, severe disease and death.
Getting delta when vaccinated - very low chance of hospitalization, severe disease and death.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
Well, we all know you can still get delta either way (although seems less of a chance when vaccinated), sooo....

Getting delta using only masks and distancing - higher chance of hospitalization, severe disease and death.
Getting delta when vaccinated - very low chance of hospitalization, severe disease and death.
Do we know that? I would think masks and distancing prevent delta as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom