Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Jrb1979]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-government-mandatory-vaccinations-1.6140131

By fall proof of vaccination will be required for all air travel in Canada as well as Cruise ships and trains.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I've got friends and family , former military. They all have something in common. They eat their meals at breakneck speed.

Add a career in medicine on top of that, and I'm doomed never to eat a meal at a leisurely pace.

 

[Nubs70]

It felt completely accurate. What I do is 100% non essential. Between unemployment and SBA I was fine. Work came right back when everything opened up.

If things close down again, my work will return again. It’s really quite simple.

In hindsight everything worked out. Did you feel this way going into the shutdowns?

 

[Heppenheimer]

It’s largely scientific consensus that COVID-19 will become endemic. The likely outcome is what we should prepare for rather than the desired outcome.

Not really. The consensus is "We don't know yet.", since the outcome depends not just on how the virus behaves, but on human behavior as well. Part of the answer lies in politics, which always serves its own ends first and foremost.

 

[Nubs70]

The Rt number for Florida is under 1 now, which is another indicator the peak is near. The UF study, led by Dr. Ira Longini, on this suggested around August 18th is when the cases should peak.

covidestim: COVID-19 nowcasting

Up-to-date estimates of key covid-19 metrics for your county or state

covidestim.org

This is the graph of Longini's model

Looks to be following the more infectious/less fatal trend found in the UK. More infectious/less fatal is a sign of an adapting virus. Could it possibly the virus is evolving in response to pressure applied by the vaccine?

 

[Lilofan]

Add a career in medicine on top of that, and I'm doomed never to eat a meal at a leisurely pace.

Visiting my family member at the hospital I ate at the hospital cafeteria. A surgeon came in still dressed looking like from surgery and he ate his lunch in a matter of minutes.

 

[bryanfze55]

The pandemic also masks will going on FOREVER for MANY YEARS....NOOOOO!! Masks will be FOREVER....

Yes, that will likely be the case. A lot of people have such a visceral connotation with COVID-19 at this point that even if we could get enough people vaccinated to get COVID-19 down to the level of seasonal flu - any increase in case numbers will spark mitigation efforts. It’s a new world.

 

[DCBaker]

Here's what the OCPS dashboard looks like after the first week of school -

 

[correcaminos]

First I want to say I haven’t read all 4,000+ pages of this thread, I’m late to the discussion and I don’t have that much time to devote to that effort. Second, some posters seem to be very passionate and at times angry when responding to other posters. That being said, I want to comment on a few posts.







Maybe you weren't referring to my post but I want to clarify when I said that CV19 will never be fully gone I wasn't suggesting that anyone not get vaccinated. I think that all who can get vaccinated, should get fully vaccinated. Please don’t think or suggest that what I said had any other meaning than that the virus is here to stay just like the flu and we all have to learn to live with it. This may require yearly vaccinations just like we get the flu shot annually.

I’m not sure why a comment about women who are pregnant getting the vaccine was taken so harshly, please explain. Please enlighten me what the second part of the sentence is supposed to be. For me there was no “second part”.

Maybe there are so many no vaxers because of those who were so against the vaccines when they first came out. If you look back a few months and remember who the people were that said they would never get the vaccine you will see that those same people are now in prominent positions and are now pushing the vaccine. Interesting how in a few months time they have changed their minds and want everyone to get vaxed. I guess this is a perfect example of being careful of what you say because it can come back and bite you.

Why is the pregnancy comment taken harshly? Doctors and FDA and all that say it is safe. You come in here saying it was sketchy IIRC was the term. That rhetoric is hurtful and what the conspiracy theorists who are anti-vax try to say.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

There are many people who cannot (or will not), for whatever reason, think outside of their own experience. So if they made it, everyone made it - no brainer.

I don’t know of one business owner, and I know quite a few, that ever thought that way. When you say many.. and I know of none.. makes me think of how different the worlds people live in.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Here's what the OCPS dashboard looks like after the first week of school -

How’s that working out for them ?

 

[bryanfze55]

Not really. The consensus is "We don't know yet.", since the outcome depends not just on how the virus behaves, but on human behavior as well. Part of the answer lies in politics, which always serves its own ends first and foremost.

I’m not a doctor, but I have a hard time believing we’re going to use human behavior, or mask away, a virus that is as transmissible as chickenpox. Increasing vaccination rates will certainly help, but you’ll never vaccinate 100% of the world population. How do you totally eradicate a virus worldwide that’s this transmissible?

Again, I fully admit I’m not a scientist or doctor. And you are technically correct that “we don’t know yet.” That logic could be applied to anything. But in reading the literature, it appears to be widely believed by the scientific community that COVID-19 will become endemic… modest spread in vulnerable communities at certain times, but much more manageable than the pandemic level we have gotten used to.

 

[bryanfze55]

I don't want the pandemic will be forever as masks too......

It’s not necessarily always going to be pandemic-level. At this point, one could even argue there is no longer a pandemic for the vaccinated. Endemic just means the virus circulates in the vulnerable population but does not cause the level of death and illness it once did. The Spanish influenza of 1918 become endemic.

 

[DisneyFan32]

It’s not necessarily always going to be pandemic-level. At this point, one could even argue there is no longer a pandemic for the vaccinated. Endemic just means the virus circulates in the vulnerable population but does not cause the level of death and illness it once did. The Spanish influenza of 1918 become endemic.

So COVID-19 will be harmless as no longer a threat as like a cold flu?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Looks to be following the more infectious/less fatal trend found in the UK. More infectious/less fatal is a sign of an adapting virus. Could it possibly the virus is evolving in response to pressure applied by the vaccine?

Evolution is not deterministic. It doesn’t have specific outcomes and regular paths. Nor is it an in time reaction to external influences. Absolutely nothing stops the virus from becoming more infectious and cause more severe disease and greater fatalities.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I’m not a doctor, but I have a hard time believing we’re going to use human behavior, or mask away, a virus that is as transmissible as chickenpox. Increasing vaccination rates will certainly help, but you’ll never vaccinate 100% of the world population. How do you totally eradicate a virus worldwide that’s this transmissible?

Again, I fully admit I’m not a scientist or doctor. And you are technically correct that “we don’t know yet.” That logic could be applied to anything. But in reading the literature, it appears to be widely believed by the scientific community that COVID-19 will become endemic… modest spread in vulnerable communities at certain times, but much more manageable than the pandemic level we have gotten used to.

"Widely believing" is different from declaring a "consensus opinion", which are usually meant for public consumption as the best summary of available data and expert opinion. In general, scientists are loathe to make consensus opinions on future events, simply because it can put their credibility on the line if they are wrong. They're usually more humble than that.

I am a doctor and I read the literature updates daily. There is no consensus at the present time where this will end up.

 

[bryanfze55]

So COVID-19 will be harmless as no longer a threat as like a cold flu?

The flu is reasonably harmful. In normal years, it kills tens of thousands of people in the US alone. While COVID-19 seems to be more transmissible, the fact that we have effective vaccines (right now) means we could get COVID-19 down to the level of influenza with the necessary vaccination levels. People will still die from it, though… people die from viruses.

 

[dreday3]

Chicago Public Schools just announced vaccine required for all employees!!!....here we go!!!

 

[bryanfze55]

"Widely believing" is different from declaring a "consensus opinion", which are usually meant for public consumption as the best summary of available data and expert opinion. In general, scientists are loathe to make consensus opinions on future events, simply because it can put their credibility on the line if they are wrong. They're usually more humble than that.

I am a doctor and I read the literature updates daily. There is no consensus at the present time where this will end up.

You’re right, and I may have inappropriately used the word “consensus.” However, you also understand the general point that it is widely believed it will become endemic. Why not prepare for that outcome?

 

[Heppenheimer]

You’re right, and I may have inappropriately used the word “consensus.” However, you also understand the general point that it is widely believed it will become endemic. Why not prepare for that outcome?

The tools to reduce a virus to eradication or endemic status are largely the same- vaccinate everyone who can, and mitigate where possible and necessary. If the virus becomes endemic, then you adjust to that new world. But we're still in the pandemic stage right now.