DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
People always tell me to listen to the experts. I'm just posting what he said. He said it on CNN so not a place slanted towards my point of view.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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correcaminos
Well-Known Member
They are more vaccinated than we are though so not massively shockingThe situation in the UK fascinates me. They had a surge with Delta, and instead of locking up, they decided to open up fully. Now their cases are dropping.
In U.K.'s Covid summer, delta decline offers clear lesson: vaccinate
"I would say the near future, and perhaps even the long-term future, looks better than it ever has before," one expert said.www.nbcnews.com
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Experts wrote the science also. The studies on masks provide data, his statement provides no science to back it up, so I have a hard time blindly accepting what he is saying.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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True, I was more thinking of the strategy to not lockdown. Curious at what point we can start seeing cases go down, my guess is it will take another 8 weeks to start seeing a decline in Delta cases.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Just read this. Interesting data https://www.vox.com/22602039/breakthrough-cases-covid-19-delta-variant-masks-vaccines
Also @willtravel what's with the shocked face? Honestly I'm beyond tired of people saying they're not going to be a guinea pig. They are so far removed from testing and trials that it does irk me. I think I'm allowed that at this point?
Also @willtravel what's with the shocked face? Honestly I'm beyond tired of people saying they're not going to be a guinea pig. They are so far removed from testing and trials that it does irk me. I think I'm allowed that at this point?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
It might be more localized too depending on vaccination rates
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
At what point will you deem it necessary? What needs to happen to convince you?
draybook
Well-Known Member
I'm a dude and I'm not pro or anti vaccine. If I need it, I'll get it when it seems safe enough.
And don't worry guys, I'm generally an introvert, so I'm not going to be a super spreader. I usually go 2 places, work and Wal-Mart. Work requires masks at all times and I place pickup orders at Wally World, so there's no contact there.
And I'm interested in data, as provided by @GoofGoof . Thank you for that.
Oddly, I'm surprised my employer hasn't mandated the vaccine yet, as we're one of the big 3 pharmas but I suspect it won't be long judging by one of the recent internal emails.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
You still trying to take a victory lap over this? Very sad
You said we would have 500,000+ cases a day in the US within 2-4 weeks in June. It hasn’t happened. You said the UK would have 100,000+ cases a day in a few weeks back in June. It never happened, the UK peaked at around 47,000 cases a day which is the US equivalent of 235,000 cases a day. The US is still averaging 40% of that total today. We have no idea when it will peak here, but there’s certainly no guarantee it reaches 235,000 cases a day let alone 500,000. I’m sure it was a great disappointment for you to see the UK cases peak and decline. I’m sure you were equally disappointed when they didn’t climb back up again due to reopening. I am hopeful you will also be greatly disappointed when we peak here in the US below the number you are hoping for. Really sad that people live this way.Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
I think your worries are valid. But my belief is what it is because what you worried about happening to you already happened to me ( Fully vaccinated long ago( Sept.) , yet moderate covid ( Delta) for two weeks in June). So that colors my view.
How much one should worry and what are reasonable acceptable risks and mitigations is what people disagree about. Accurate quantification of risk is hard because Delta is not the same as original wild covid, and vaccine efficacy decreases in time. Studies lag the real world dynamics, policy lags studies.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Dr. Osterholm is a good guy. But if he is talking about the need for N95s in the general population, it should tell you something about the folly of wearing no masks at all. Which the anti-vaxxers insist on doing. While “protecting” themselves from an unknown vaccine taken by a billion people.
However there is context for the comment. Dr. Osterholm is seeking a way higher threshold for safety, and not being satisfied with crude substitutes. Apparently, this was a slide from one of his earlier podcasts
This is likely pre-Delta, but you can see that if two people are maskless an infectious dose is expected in 15 minutes. If both people are wearing a cloth mask it extends to 50 minutes. Which covers a bunch of casual encounter type stuff. Which a lot of people interpret as having a benefit over nothing. People know they aren't impenetrable shields, just that they are better than nothing at all. Dr. Osterholm is only really satisfied by the option that provides hours of protection, and generally feels like people get a false sense of security otherwise. He wants people to do *more* to be more confident that the protection is solid, not try to get by with less. He is certainly not an advocate of not masking at all, which is why at other times he says to wear masks when in public. He does get the "better than nothing." He just would prefer we all were wearing N95s, especially with Delta.
If you believe him, that the cloth masks are useless, you should be wearing an N95. Not choosing to go maskless. What are most people doing who are using his comments to promote the futility of masks? Going maskless. They aren't practicing what Dr. Osterholm is preaching. Just cherry-picking, so they can do nothing at all. I also doubt these people have listened to anything else Dr. Osterholm has said regarding the seriousness of the moment and what people should be doing about it.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Dr. Osterholm is a good guy. But if he is talking about the need for N95s in the general population, it should tell you something about the folly of wearing no masks at all. Which the anti-vaxxers insist on doing. While “protecting” themselves from an unknown vaccine taken by a billion people.
However there is context for the comment. Dr. Osterholm is seeking a way higher threshold for safety, and not being satisfied with crude substitutes. Apparently, this was a slide from one of his earlier podcasts
This is likely pre-Delta, but you can see that if two people are maskless an infectious dose is expected in 15 minutes. If both people are wearing a cloth mask it extends to 50 minutes. Which covers a bunch of casual encounter type stuff. Which a lot of people interpret as having a benefit over nothing. People know they aren't impenetrable shields, just that they are better than nothing at all. Dr. Osterholm is only really satisfied by the option that provides hours of protection, and generally feels like people get a false sense of security otherwise. He wants people to do *more* to be more confident that the protection is solid, not try to get by with less. He is certainly not an advocate of not masking at all, which is why at other times he says to wear masks when in public. He does get the "better than nothing." He just would prefer we all were wearing N95s, especially with Delta.
If you believe him, that the cloth masks are useless, you should be wearing an N95. Not choosing to go maskless. What are most people doing who are using his comments to promote the futility of masks? Going maskless. They aren't practicing what Dr. Osterholm is preaching. Just cherry-picking, so they can do nothing at all. I also doubt these people have listened to anything else Dr. Osterholm has said regarding the seriousness of the moment and what people should be doing about it.
Thanks this is the type of data I was looking for. His statements are being twisted by some news sites to say anything short of a N95 is useless. Obviously N95 is the best option, but lesser masks do offer protection.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
But what more will you need to see to believe they are safe? The vaccines met the same safety standards as any other vaccine, and since side effects always show up within a month or two max, we have had plenty of time to identify any side effects that would impact anything more then a tiny number of people.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
I think efficacy is lower if we start adding in the decreased efficacy caused by time since second vaccination ( shown against original wild variant as decreasing by 3% per month ).
Not sure 88% is based on people that are recently but fully vaccinated and not those who been vaccinated for many months.
Malfie Cent
Member
You do realize that for the vast majority that get COVID, which is the unvaccinated BTW, death is not imminent. In fact the chances of dying are pretty low. Maybe if you actually looked at the stats and stopped following all the fear mongering on the media you'd understand that and in turn understand why one decides they don't need the vaccine to survive COVID.
As far as spreading it to others, if those others are so afraid then stay the hell out of the public. Protect yourself, stop expecting others to protect you.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Why not, if you’re so afraid of a shot, you stay home?
The US is reporting horrible numbers. It is so hard to believe but we are almost back to the highest numbers we have had. On January 20, the US reported 185,488 cases. Yesterday the numbers reported for the US were 149,078. Then consider if we double just one more time we will pass the all time US single day total of 259,616 reported on January 9. Are we in more trouble than in January? No but we need to put the blame where it belongs. Take your shot and stop blaming political groups and blame the age group 18 to 35. These young adults are the ones driving the growth in cases. I will never forget last Summer hearing a 22 year old women in our condo complex saying she has nothing to worry about so she won't wear a mask. Now, not only won't she wear a mask, she won't get vaccinated! But she is just like all the other 20 year olds.
Malfie Cent
Member
Did someone here say they were afraid of the shot?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Seriously though. If you haven't yet, get the shot. It is clear now with the amount of unvaccinated, the vaccinated can't ignore them..because it is now screwing many of them over. People want to move on.
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