Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Well...if it does happen, it will be much easier to contact trace and control since it's so deadly.

Silver lining?

I think me, you and @Disney Experience should get together for a beer some time.

 

[GoofGoof]

Headline in today's paper: "Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as the unvaccinated, study finds" Does anyone know if the CDC has any evidence other than the Cape Cod data to support this?

I believe that is the basis for this report. They took samples from the infected people and determined the viral load was the same in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Of course like I said above, they left out that fully vaccinated people are still 10x less likely to get infected in the first place.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yes, it does provide the first concrete evidence that fully vaccinated people who are infected can indeed infect other fully vaccinated people. What we don’t know is how they infected each other. The implication from the original story was it just happened through casual contact but when more details emerged it became clear that it was more likely through more intimate close contact and/or direct transfer of infected saliva. No guarantee that’s how everyone was infected but likely that many were. To me that’s much less concerning for the average person than if the spread was occurring in a grocery store or in a restaurant or some other public setting with casual contact.

What I said from the beginning of this report being leaked is that while it confirms fully vaccinated people can spread Covid they are still much less likely to have a breakthrough infection so much less likely to be spreading Covid. In other words unvaccinated people are still much more likely to be spreading Covid than fully vaccinated people. The vaccines still work very well at preventing even mild infection. The efficacy appears to have dropped below 90% with delta but 88% is still very good. The reason for the change in guidance is not because of rare breakthrough infections it’s because of the level of community spread (which is the reason for the red/orange/yellow map). 88% efficacy still amounts to 10s of thousands of breakthrough infections a week when you are seeing hundreds of thousands of infections overall so there is some added risk to fully vaccinated people to be both infected and to be potential spreaders. Adding masks back for everyone hopefully helps bring down community spread by getting the unvaccinated to mask up again. We just need more businesses and state/local governments to embrace the change.

Headline in today's paper: "Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as the unvaccinated, study finds" Does anyone know if the CDC has any evidence other than the Cape Cod data to support this?

The means of transmission is moot once an active infection is present. The point is that the viral load is the same in an unvaccinated person vs. a vaccinated person when active infection is present.

The vaccines still greatly reduce a person's chances of developing an active infection. (But that protection did take a little bit of a hit from Delta.)

 

[GoofGoof]

The means of transmission is moot once an active infection is present. The point is that the viral load is the same in an unvaccinated person vs. a vaccinated person when active infection is present.

The vaccines still greatly reduce a person's chances of developing an active infection. (But that protection did take a little bit of a hit from Delta.)

I think the biggest lesson learned from this small outbreak is we shouldn‘t have taken the concept of “return to normal” literally. Return to normal was supposed to be a celebration of very disruptive things like no indoor dining and virtual school ending and for fully vaccinated people not having to wear a mask at the grocery store. It shouldn’t have meant pretend the pandemic is over and act like you can’t get infected. Certain activities will remain “high risk” as long as Covid is around in the community. Packed clubs with people intentionally swapping spit will continue to remain a problem even if you are vaccinated as long as community spread is elevated. People who are fully vaccinated should not worry about getting infected and being contagious but you still have to be diligent with hand washing and avoiding unnecessary intimate contact with strangers or if you chose to do that stuff (everyone has a different definition of “necessary”) then take some precautions afterward like a self imposed quarantine or at least avoid contact with elderly or high risk friends and family members. A breakthrough infection for a young, healthy and fully vaccinated person is very unlikely to be serious or result in hospitalization or death, but you could spread it to someone who is more vulnerable.

 

[Lilofan]

Right! And I can attest that my local liquor store is only encouraging them as well. Happy weekend !

I remember back in the day one was not allowed to wear a mask in a police station, liquor store or in a bank.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I think the biggest lesson learned from this small outbreak is we shouldn‘t have taken the concept of “return to normal” literally. Return to normal was supposed to be a celebration of very disruptive things like no indoor dining and virtual school ending and for fully vaccinated people not having to wear a mask at the grocery store. It shouldn’t have meant pretend the pandemic is over and act like you can’t get infected. Certain activities will remain “high risk” as long as Covid is around in the community. Packed clubs with people intentionally swapping spit will continue to remain a problem even if you are vaccinated as long as community spread is elevated. People who are fully vaccinated should not worry about getting infected and being contagious but you still have to be diligent with hand washing and avoiding unnecessary intimate contact with strangers or if you chose to do that stuff (everyone has a different definition of “necessary”) then take some precautions afterward like a self imposed quarantine or at least avoid contact with elderly or high risk friends and family members. A breakthrough infection for a young, healthy and fully vaccinated person is very unlikely to be serious or result in hospitalization or death, but you could spread it to someone who is more vulnerable.

A lesson even bigger than that though...that relying on the honor system during a world-wide pandemic is foolhardy at best.

 

[twasbrillig12]

Everyone is only “encouraging“ masks aside from Disney...other theme parks, Walmart, Publix, etc. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I haven’t seen any other company with a mandate. Not yet, anyway.

Kennedy Space Center is requiring masks in all indoor locations. They actually announced this before Disney did and it became active a day before.

 

[jlhwdw]

I love when the White House comes out and says "listen to the science" and says there is hyperbole coming out about Delta and folks on here, who have spent the last 15 months pleading everyone to "listen to the science" say "there's no hyperbole".

I'm pro vax and pro mitigation when necessary. But I truly do believe some people just love to follow rules so much they are looking for any excuse to bring back all the rules just to be dramatic on the internet.

 

[ElvisMickey]

I remember back in the day one was not allowed to wear a mask in a police station, liquor store or in a bank.

Can you imagine walking into a bank before COVID with a mask?

 

[GoofGoof]

A lesson even bigger than that though...that relying on the honor system during a world-wide pandemic is foolhardy at best.

The honor system is fine when cases are low. People just need to change their expectations and know that if/when cases spike we go back to masks and if needed more mitigations. I’m hoping that this wave peaks sooner than later but if it doesn’t we could see a further dial up of mitigations at least regionally. The biggest issue is the places that need to pull back on activity are the same places that refuse to and are also the least vaccinated. Perfect storm to drag this out longer than it needs to.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The honor system is fine when cases are low. People just need to change their expectations and know that if/when cases spike we go back to masks and if needed more mitigations. I’m hoping that this wave peaks sooner than later but if it doesn’t we could see a further dial up of mitigations at least regionally. The biggest issue is the places that need to pull back on activity are the same places that refuse to and are also the least vaccinated. Perfect storm to drag this out longer than it needs to.

Yup. The amount of pandering and politicizing is criminal. This isn't just some silly thing...people are dying.

 

[Chi84]

I believe that is the basis for this report. They took samples from the infected people and determined the viral load was the same in vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Of course like I said above, they left out that fully vaccinated people are still 10x less likely to get infected in the first place.

There is a difference between advancing conspiracy theories and noting that public health agencies will shape and support their message to achieve the best outcome - right now that is curbing the spread of this virus.

But the CDC isn't very good at this, and they are losing credibility more than ever. There are only so many times people will give them a break based on changing science when it appears that the message is designed in a way to manipulate behavior.

First, it was the changing message on whether or not masks were needed, although they clearly could not be expected to know everything about how a novel virus was spreading. Still, the message came against the backdrop of people in Germany, Italy, etc. wearing masks and many concluded that the message was designed to stop people from hoarding PPE needed by health care workers.

Then it was the dropping of masks for vaccinated people only - with no indication of how that could be effectively accomplished in the absence of some way to tell the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. People excused that omission by noting that the CDC is only responsible for explaining the science and not for implementing policies based on that science. But there is a good argument to be made that the change, coming when it did, was designed to foster confidence in the highly effective vaccines and to encourage people to get vaccinated.

Now the highly transmissible Delta variant has arrived. Even though the CDC has stated repeatedly that the spread is driven by the unvaccinated, we are now faced with a huge problem by not being able to tell the difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Vaccine passports are off the table and in any event too late to help. So we have a study with significant but largely ignored limitations saying that vaccinated people carry the same amount of virus as the unvaccinated and that everyone should now be wearing masks. I sincerely hope there is evidence other than this study to support that conclusion. If not, I would much rather have been told that vaccinated people need to keep wearing masks because we have no way of telling who is or is not vaccinated. There are serious implications from leading vaccinated people to believe that they can spread the virus as easily as the unvaccinated - the CDC needs to come out with additional evidence in support or a clear statement clarifying its current position on this.

I apologize for the rant, but I've followed the CDC guidelines from the start whether or not I liked them because that's what people in a society need to do. I'll continue to do so, and I certainly agree that additional mitigation measures are necessary in light of the Delta variant. But I'm losing confidence in this agency.

 

[Lilofan]

Can you imagine walking into a bank before COVID with a mask?

Someone may call 911 and or some carry their firearms concealed and may think of defending themselves.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think the biggest lesson learned from this small outbreak is we shouldn‘t have taken the concept of “return to normal” literally. Return to normal was supposed to be a celebration of very disruptive things like no indoor dining and virtual school ending and for fully vaccinated people not having to wear a mask at the grocery store. It shouldn’t have meant pretend the pandemic is over and act like you can’t get infected. Certain activities will remain “high risk” as long as Covid is around in the community. Packed clubs with people intentionally swapping spit will continue to remain a problem even if you are vaccinated as long as community spread is elevated. People who are fully vaccinated should not worry about getting infected and being contagious but you still have to be diligent with hand washing and avoiding unnecessary intimate contact with strangers or if you chose to do that stuff (everyone has a different definition of “necessary”) then take some precautions afterward like a self imposed quarantine or at least avoid contact with elderly or high risk friends and family members. A breakthrough infection for a young, healthy and fully vaccinated person is very unlikely to be serious or result in hospitalization or death, but you could spread it to someone who is more vulnerable.

Wasn't that something we were supposed to learn not to do in nursery school?

 

[Flugell]

Someone may call 911 and or some carry their firearms concealed and may think of defending themselves.

You’re allowed to take firearms into a bank and people would worry if someone wore a mask? Wow? That makes no sense! I’d be terrified if someone came in with a gun but that’s probably a U.K. perspective.

 

[Lilofan]

You’re allowed to take firearms into a bank and people would worry if someone wore a mask? Wow? That makes no sense! I’d be terrified if someone came in with a gun but that’s probably a U.K. perspective.

Don't ask don't tell. It is concealed by the one with a concealed permit.Some I know carry for their own safety.

 

[Patcheslee]

Exactly!

Come for my cat, I come for your family.

(relax all, just kidding....or am I? )

In theory if you can afford a Disney vacation, you can afford bail

 

[CosmicRays]

2 weeks...errrr.....years... to slow the spread.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

2 weeks...errrr.....years... to slow the spread.

I feel ya. It's so depressing and infuriating that we have the vaccines to stamp this down enough to return to an *almost* normal state of living, but that so many people are actively fighting against accomplishing that.

 

[DisneyCane]

Now the highly transmissible Delta variant has arrived. Even though the CDC has stated repeatedly that the spread is driven by the unvaccinated, we are now faced with a huge problem by not being able to tell the difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Vaccine passports are off the table and in any event too late to help. So we have a study with significant but largely ignored limitations saying that vaccinated people carry the same amount of virus as the unvaccinated and that everyone should now be wearing masks. I sincerely hope there is evidence other than this study to support that conclusion. If not, I would much rather have been told that vaccinated people need to keep wearing masks because we have no way of telling who is or is not vaccinated. There are serious implications from leading vaccinated people to believe that they can spread the virus as easily as the unvaccinated - the CDC needs to come out with additional evidence in support or a clear statement clarifying its current position on this.

The bolded is very key. If they had said that, it wouldn't give ammunition to people to say that the vaccines don't work because now they have to try and do a 180 on the messaging to get people to want to be vaccinated.

Exaggerating an issue or bending the truth of what "the science" concluded in order to get UNVACCINATED people to wear masks does not exactly build trust in the CDC by anybody.