Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Man, the cases per capita in the USA aren't just trending upward, they're heading towards numbers from the peak of the pandemic. Crazy. This could be largely over by now.

www.ctvnews.ca

COVID-19 in the U.S.: How do Canada's provinces rank against American states?

Looking at confirmed coronavirus cases per million people, how do the U.S. states compare to Canada's provinces and territories?
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca
 
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Trauma

Well-Known Member
Parker in NYC said:
Oooh, @Trauma looks like you’re gonna owe me a drink! Or a mocktail. It’s the least you can do. (Just make sure you’re wearing a mask).
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Sorry I won’t be at the parks with a mask on.

Some people have standards.

I’ll be more than happy to buy you a drink whenever we can return to normal.
 
KrzyKtty

KrzyKtty

Well-Known Member
I'm curious what this is going to do in my state. SC Governor isn't really much better than Florida governor. He ended up signing an executive order I think last April basically making mask mandates illegal for schools across the state.
 
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hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Unless there is some new data that I'm not aware of, there has been nothing to suggest that a kid under 12 is at any higher risk of severe illness from Delta than they were from the prior variants. The risk for prior variants to that population was extremely low and factually lower than the risk to them from the flu in a normal year. If that information changes then I'll change my stance. I've said from the beginning that if children were heavily affected by COVID many of my opinions would be different.

Now, I'd like somebody to educate me regarding masks and the Delta variant. If we assume that the lab experiments translate to the real world and the mask blocks 70% of the virus leaving the infected person and 70% of the virus entering the non-infected person, that means that 9% of the virus particles make it through the journey.

Now, it has been reported that the viral load for somebody infected with Delta is 1000 times what it was for prior variants. 1000 times 9% is 9000%. That means that for Delta, 90 times the amount of virus will make the journey, through masks that made it through the with prior variants through masks. If I'm doing the math correctly, that means that for Delta, there will be 8.1 times the amount of virus that makes the journey WITH masking than made the journey without masking of the other variants. Therefore, why would we expect masking to have any significant effect on Delta.

Obviously, the real world numbers will be higher due to variable materials, fit and how people are wearing the masks.
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Your math is highly simplistic, and disregards the physics of the situation.

Virus particles do not travel independently. They travel in spit. Just because there are 1000x more virus particles doesn't mean you have started salivating at the mouth like a rabid dog.

Instead the virus particles are jamming themselves into the same amount of spit as you were breathing out before. Like the difference between a subway car during weekday commuting hours (Delta) and the same subway car at 10AM on a Sunday (previous variants).

While more virus is present in smaller droplets, and therefore getting through, the virus is not distributed evenly. There is still way more virus in large droplets than small ones. Masks still block large droplets. And every bit of virus in those large droplets. It will not scale in the manner you calculated.

I have no idea what the actual numbers might be. But I do know that PPE is used with highly transmissible infectious diseases and less transmissible infectious diseases, with high rates of success. Which is why we do it. We aren't hearing how attending nurses and doctors are contracting the highly transmissible infectious diseases at high rates, even though they are spending extended periods of time in the presence of an infected patient either.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
ImperfectPixie said:
Oddly enough, even though we live in a town with a gazillion miles of oceanfront beach...we avoid them because of all the tourists. We go to a small local pond that has multiple beaches around it, and we only go on weekdays, when there are way less people there. :)
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I just saw on the map Cap Cod was already red. We have a few counties in PA that went Orange.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
KrzyKtty said:
I'm curious what this is going to do in my state. SC Governor risen really much better than Florida governor. He ended up signing an executive order I think last April basically making mask mandates illegal for schools across the state.
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With the updated guidelines, my state will be changing exactly zero things.
 
zakattack99

zakattack99

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
GoofGoof said:
The CDC has defined the level of spread in each county in the country. It’s based on cases per 100K and percent positive. Someone posted the map earlier. Places that are red and Orange are high or significant spread. Yellow is moderate and blue is low.
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Angel Ariel said:
It has always been on state and local officials to enforce a mask mandate. Aside from federal property/transportation, there has never been a National mask mandate.
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Understand both of these things, thought about the local vs fed mandates after I had already posted… Maybe it’s just my opinion but past guidance from the CDC seemed more “forceful” or urgent? Idk today’s guidance does not indicate to me anyway that areas with high transmission will institute masking or change problematic behavior.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
hopemax said:
Your math is highly simplistic, and disregards the physics of the situation.

Virus particles do not travel independently. They travel in spit. Just because there are 1000x more virus particles doesn't mean you have started salivating at the mouth like a rabid dog.

Instead the virus particles are jamming themselves into the same amount of spit as you were breathing out before. Like the difference between a subway car during weekday commuting hours (Delta) and the same subway car at 10AM on a Sunday (previous variants).

While more virus is present in smaller droplets, and therefore getting through, the virus is not distributed evenly. There is still way more virus in large droplets than small ones. Masks still block large droplets. And every bit of virus in those large droplets. It will not scale in the manner you calculated.

I have no idea what the actual numbers might be. But I do know that PPE is used with highly transmissible infectious diseases and less transmissible infectious diseases, with high rates of success. Which is why we do it. We aren't hearing how attending nurses and doctors are contracting the highly transmissible infectious diseases at high rates, even though they are spending extended periods of time in the presence of an infected patient either.
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First of all, PPE and cloth masks you but at Walmart are not the same thing.

Second, I'll keep an open mind until we can track the curve in LA County vs. other CA counties and observe if the mandate that returned last week has a significant effect.

I'm specifically talking about Delta right now so prior studies are irrelevant.
 
T

Trauma

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
First of all, PPE and cloth masks you but at Walmart are not the same thing.

Second, I'll keep an open mind until we can track the curve in LA County vs. other CA counties and observe if the mandate that returned last week has a significant effect.

I'm specifically talking about Delta right now so prior studies are irrelevant.
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Nope the guy at wal-mart wearing a piece of toilet paper over his mouth and not his nose is the same thing as doctors and nurses blah blah blah blah

I see 1 out of 500 people wearing a properly fitted N95 mask.
 
ImperfectPixie

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
First of all, PPE and cloth masks you but at Walmart are not the same thing.

Second, I'll keep an open mind until we can track the curve in LA County vs. other CA counties and observe if the mandate that returned last week has a significant effect.

I'm specifically talking about Delta right now so prior studies are irrelevant.
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Look at MA and what happened last year when mask mandates went into effect. They absolutely make a difference.

Delta isn't better at getting through a mask than previous variants.
 
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