Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Here is where you can listen to the Q&A -

The call is over - if you want to listen to the briefing in full, it starts at roughly 6:10.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why is this announcement being kept so low key?

It’s not even breaking news at the type of news sources that you think would be running this with giant exclamation marks.

It’s the first story on ABC news , Fox news and CNN websites. I didn’t look anywhere else.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Sorry joined the CDC thing late, but it does not sound like they are outlining where you need the masks (aka calling out states that need masks) just saying that if transmission is high everyone needs to ware a mask. IF I am hearing this correctly, this is never going to work as it would be on state/local officials to enforce a mask mandate, most of the states on their map have anti-mask governors they are not going to start masking again. There is too much ambiguity in this announcement. Let me know if I missed something or am misunderstanding.

I translate it as...wear your masks, no matter where you are located.

They dug a hole for themselves and dont want to discredit the vaccines, I get it, but we also need to know what's up.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sorry joined the CDC thing late, but it does not sound like they are outlining where you need the masks (aka calling out states that need masks) just saying that if transmission is high everyone needs to ware a mask. IF I am hearing this correctly, this is never going to work as it would be on state/local officials to enforce a mask mandate, most of the states on their map have anti-mask governors they are not going to start masking again. There is too much ambiguity in this announcement. Let me know if I missed something or am misunderstanding.

The CDC has defined the level of spread in each county in the country. It’s based on cases per 100K and percent positive. Someone posted the map earlier. Places that are red and Orange are high or significant spread. Yellow is moderate and blue is low.

 

[Lilofan]

Oh please. It's everywhere.

Have you seen the protests in France over Covid measures?

France would even hold protests ( they did ) if workers had to be forced to work OT .

 

[dreday3]

The CDC has defined the level of spread in each county in the country. It’s based on cases per 100K and percent positive. Someone posted the map earlier. Places that are red and Orange are high or significant spread. Yellow is moderate and blue is low.

I mean...so if we are orange one day, then bop down to yellow in a few days....we all put on masks in Target for the orange days, then we don't wear them on the yellow days.

Maybe business will have to have color codes on the outside of buidlings - red/orange - wear mask inside. Yellow/blue - smile at everyone and show your teeth!

Well, it will be interesting to see if cases fall off when this starts in certain areas or if cases still increase in areas that are masking indoors...

 

[DCBaker]

Here is the new guidance -

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

Here is what counties in Florida look like -

 

[hopemax]

I mean...so if we are orange one day, then bop down to yellow in a few days....we all put on masks in Target for the orange days, then we don't wear them on the yellow days.

Maybe business will have to have color codes on the outside of buidlings - red/orange - wear mask inside. Yellow/blue - smile at everyone and show your teeth!

If people want to be ridiculous they can. I'm going to treat it like taking antibiotics. Just because you start feeling better doesn't mean you ditch the pills. People are capable of understanding the difference between day-to-day variations and a sustained level of improvement. Many won't, but they are capable.

 

[DisneyCane]

Okay, I am going to go on record in thinking of the possibility that our Delta wave could last longer/look different than in India or the UK.

Reason: With higher vax levels, infections are like trying to light wet firewood. It's harder to get it going; but if you keep tending it and supplying it with some drier kindling, you can eventually get it burning, but not as hot and just slower to happen. India had low vax, so the whole country burned like a summer wildfire. Great Britain is a lot smaller geographical area than India, so despite the presence of wet wood, it was still able to work it's way through the island with regional burns overlapping.

The US is so large, and so patchwork in terms of wet and dry wood, I suspect it's going to act way more sequentially, while India and the UK burned somewhat in parallel. Missouri, Nevada, Florida are going to burn through, but other states aren't going to start burning until those states are done. The same phenomenon we've seen throughout this pandemic. The country, as a whole, will be dealing with things longer, even if the timeline in each region is similar. We're not so much up and down, but up, down part way, plateau, down more. That plateau period will add up to things lasting longer than "we just have to get to September." Come September, I expect the names of the affected states will have changed, but it won't be over.

Looking at the US as a whole, I think you are probably correct. For individual states or localities I think it will end up similar to the UK. I think it was yesterday that I posted that if FL follows the India and UK curve, the spike will end in late September.

 

[dreday3]

If people want to be ridiculous they can. I'm going to treat it like taking antibiotics. Just because you start feeling better doesn't mean you ditch the pills. People are capable of understanding the difference between day-to-day variations and a sustained level of improvement. Many won't, but they are capable.

It was a tongue in cheek post....

 

[GoofGoof]

I mean...so if we are orange one day, then bop down to yellow in a few days....we all put on masks in Target for the orange days, then we don't wear them on the yellow days.

Maybe business will have to have color codes on the outside of buidlings - red/orange - wear mask inside. Yellow/blue - smile at everyone and show your teeth!

Well, it will be interesting to see if cases fall off when this starts in certain areas or if cases still increase in areas that are masking indoors...

Basically if your county has greater than 49.99 cases per 100K over the past week or a percent positive greater than 7.99% you are in the substantial or high group. Each business will set their own rules but I imagine most won’t change status the day you move from yellow to orange or the other way.

 

[DisneyCane]

Not being snarky at all. To complain about having to wear a mask is petty but I appreciate the fact that you won't go if you have to wear a mask. Do you avoid all locations that require masks - medical clinics, hospitals, nursing homes. Would you be fine if your surgeon decided that they didn't want to wear a mask during surgery? Do you feel washing your hands is too much of an inconvenience for you? Where do you stand on seatbelts? What is the line you draw where you determine something is too troubling for you to do?

If there is something that I need to do where a mask is required then I wear it. Just yesterday I went to the dentist where I abided by the perfectly logical policy to wear a mask when signing in and then having it off for an hour during exam and cleaning.

I won't wear one in a leisure situation. For shopping or eating I'll be able to find places that don't require them. It may cost more but I'm willing to pay more if I have to. If Disney requires then and Universal doesn't then I'll go to Universal and spend my money there.

 

[correcaminos]

I translate it as...wear your masks, no matter where you are located.

They dug a hole for themselves and dont want to discredit the vaccines, I get it, but we also need to know what's up.

I see it differently, our anti-vax population just pulled a "this is why we cannot have nice things" move. Vaccines are not being discredited as much as our population doesn't get how to act like adults and mask. Honestly I'm so mad at people who refuse to vaccinate. I have seen how hard this is on so many and we're taking normalcy away again for another year. So sick of watching huge milestones get tossed aside for selfish jerks.

 

[KrzyKtty]

Here is the new guidance -

View attachment 575057

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

Here is what counties in Florida look like -

View attachment 575058

That's pretty much the entire SE lol. It was all red.

 

[Angel Ariel]

it would be on state/local officials to enforce a mask mandate

It has always been on state and local officials to enforce a mask mandate. Aside from federal property/transportation, there has never been a National mask mandate.

 

[GoofGoof]

Looking at the US as a whole, I think you are probably correct. For individual states or localities I think it will end up similar to the UK. I think it was yesterday that I posted that if FL follows the India and UK curve, the spike will end in late September.

Keep in mind too that delta is everywhere in the US. The chart below shows the percent of various variants in each region. The Orange one is delta. This is CDC data from the 2 weeks ending 7/17 so it’s been around for a little while now.

As you can see even in the NE the vast majority of cases now are delta. The areas with higher vaccination rates like the NE are still seeing increased cases but nothing like the South and SE is seeing. My point is that cases are up everywhere not just in a handful of states and delta has hit everywhere but it looks like the impact isn’t the same based on how vaccinated places are.

 

[mmascari]

Now, I'd like somebody to educate me regarding masks and the Delta variant. If we assume that the lab experiments translate to the real world and the mask blocks 70% of the virus leaving the infected person and 70% of the virus entering the non-infected person, that means that 9% of the virus particles make it through the journey.

Now, it has been reported that the viral load for somebody infected with Delta is 1000 times what it was for prior variants. 1000 times 9% is 9000%. That means that for Delta, 90 times the amount of virus will make the journey, through masks that made it through the with prior variants through masks. If I'm doing the math correctly, that means that for Delta, there will be 8.1 times the amount of virus that makes the journey WITH masking than made the journey without masking of the other variants. Therefore, why would we expect masking to have any significant effect on Delta.

Obviously, the real world numbers will be higher due to variable materials, fit and how people are wearing the masks.

It's still 9% not 9000%, but it is 9% of a starting number 1000 times larger. There's a time component too in the mask effectiveness.

If we pretend that with the original strain, two people in a room, both wearing masks, one of them breathing out virus at a constant particle rate, the other breathing in, both masks blocking 70%, for a 9% of particles exhaled every second are inhaled. Then, if we assume that after 4 hours, 14,400 seconds the infected person has exhaled enough particles that the other will be infected. The delta change says that it only take 15 seconds to get to the same transferred particles. Assuming I did the math right.

Lucky for us, this is pretend. We don't know how long the two masked people in this scenario would need to be together to infect the second. It's probably much much longer than 4 hours.

But, it does show that people will want to either improve their mask performance, minimize their time, or both.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Keep in mind too that delta is everywhere in the US. The chart below shows the percent of various variants in each region. The Orange one is delta. This is CDC data from the 2 weeks ending 7/17 so it’s been around for a little while now.
View attachment 575063
As you can see even in the NE the vast majority of cases now are delta. The areas with higher vaccination rates like the NE are still seeing increased cases but nothing like the South and SE is seeing. My point is that cases are up everywhere not just in a handful of states and delta has hit everywhere but it looks like the impact isn’t the same based on how vaccinated places are.

MA is yellow and is low spread. The past two weeks were both over 100% increase in new cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

MA is yellow and is low spread. The past two weeks were both over 100% increase in new cases.

Yep, cases are up in all 50 states, not just a handful. MA is at 7 cases per 100,000 per NYT so getting close to that next level up.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yep, cases are up in all 50 states, not just a handful. MA is at 7 cases per 100,000 per NYT so getting close to that next level up.

Yup. I'm watching very closely. I'm really hoping they mandate masks in school in the fall because I don't trust anyone after what I've seen around here the last 18 months.