Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Jrb1979]

THIS...if vaccinated, we're good to go

That's the problem. There is a lot of areas with low vaccination rates.

 

[Chi84]

Illinois’ recently announced lottery is breaking down some of the prizes into 11 regions. Each region will have 2 $100,000 prizes, in addition to statewide million dollar prizes. This sounds like a good idea since I believe some of the less populated regions have lower vaccination rates. A greater chance of winning might provide more incentive.

 

[hopemax]

I did see a report that as of ~June 8th, the drop in US case counts have plateaued.

NY Times trackers for cases, in the last 14 days

Arkansas +74%
Missouri +44% (+9% for hospitalizations, the next in line behind Oklahoma)
Utah +39%
Oklahoma +33% (Oklahoma is also +38% for hospitalizations)
Kansas +21%
Texas +14%
Nevada +13%

They are starting from low numbers, so while it's not serious yet, it is indicative that things are happening in places that won't necessarily show up in national trends because they aren't populated enough to tip the scales. Whether it's an early sign of Delta, Memorial Day effects, and/or mitigation removal (even in areas where mitigation was weak, some people were doing some things and now no one is doing much of anything) we will have to continue to watch.

 

[DonniePeverley]

What data? I have yet to see any data from you to back up your doom-and-gloom claims.

The data from the UK, where the Delta Indian variant now accounts for 100% of the cases, which has resulted in a 300% increase in rates in a few weeks - with a lockdown extended for a further month.

It's not that the data isn't there, it's the fact you chose not to see it, and i completely understand that as it's depressing.

 

[DonniePeverley]

I did see a report that as of ~June 8th, the drop in US case counts have plateaued.

NY Times trackers for cases, in the last 14 days

Arkansas +74%
Missouri +44% (+9% for hospitalizations, the next in line behind Oklahoma)
Utah +39%
Oklahoma +33% (Oklahoma is also +38% for hospitalizations)
Kansas +21%
Texas +14%
Nevada +13%

They are starting from low numbers, so while it's not serious yet, it is indicative that things are happening in places that won't necessarily show up in national trends because they aren't populated enough to tip the scales. Whether it's an early sign of Delta, Memorial Day effects, and/or mitigation removal (even in areas where mitigation was weak, some people were doing some things and now no one is doing much of anything) we will have to continue to watch.

The US borders aren't tight so you'd assume the Delta variant was now well inside the US. As i say, they are a month behind the UK.

It's absolutely wreckless to stop distancing measures, masks etc at this moment in time until the Delta variant is full 100% of the cases in the USA. As i say as soon as cases go up, there is no way states will just let numbers go up without implementing restrictions again.

 

[hopemax]

The US borders aren't tight so you'd assume the Delta variant was now well inside the US. As i say, they are a month behind the UK.

It will be longer than a month due to our population density advantages, and 2-dose strategy. It will come, but people in this thread get all touchy when someone makes a prediction of timing and it takes a few weeks longer. That's why my prediction is "back to school" time. Everything about this (except vaccine development time, thankfully and CDC mitigation guidelines for vaccinated people) has been slower than people think.

 

[DisneyFan32]

It will be longer than a month due to our population density advantages, and 2-dose strategy. It will come, but people in this thread get all touchy when someone makes a prediction of timing and it takes a few weeks longer. That's why my prediction is "back to school" time. Everything about this (except vaccine development time, thankfully and CDC mitigation guidelines for vaccinated people) has been slower than people think.

is Delta variant will become more dangerous in US as masks and social distancing will return or not by end of the year?

 

[durangojim]

So here’s my prognostication: by fall the Delta variant will be the major one in the US. Starting in the middle of September we’ll see spikes of 1/4 to 1/2 of why we’ve seen for the past 15 months however hospitalization rates will be about 50-65% of what they were and there will be no mask mandates or lockdowns in the US any more. My reasoning: intuition and experience, so don’t take it as the gospel.

 

[Touchdown]

Again: If you are fully vaccinated you are protected from delta and highly, highly unlikely to get it. You are free to go about your life. Covid is over for you. If you are unvaccinated you should change that before this thing really hits. Because we have more natural immunity then Britain, and more people fully vaccinated we may not have much of a spike, but that remains to be seen.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Again: If you are fully vaccinated you are protected from delta and highly, highly unlikely to get it. You are free to go about your life. Covid is over for you. If you are unvaccinated you should change that before this thing really hits. Because we have more natural immunity then Britain, and more people fully vaccinated we may not have much of a spike, but that remains to be seen.

That would be scary but I'm okay with that. But I think there will may be no spike at all by September/Fall.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Again: If you are fully vaccinated you are protected from delta and highly, highly unlikely to get it. You are free to go about your life. Covid is over for you. If you are unvaccinated you should change that before this thing really hits. Because we have more natural immunity then Britain, and more people fully vaccinated we may not have much of a spike, but that remains to be seen.

Well we don’t have any data on how much people with Moderna and J&J are protected correct? It would seem that fully vaxxed with Pfizer is mostly protected (and it’s reasonably to assume moderna is likely similar to Pfizer).

 

[Touchdown]

Well we don’t have any data on how much people with Moderna and J&J are protected correct? It would seem that fully vaxxed with Pfizer is mostly protected (and it’s reasonably to assume moderna is likely similar to Pfizer).

J&J is also extremely similar to AZ, so it’s likely effective as well. Yes it’s an educated guess and not proven yet, but again nearly certain for Moderna and highly likely for J&J.

 

[Phil12]

You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.

I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).

Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.

Your "solution" will cause COVID-19 to become endemic.

 

[Bob Harlem]

Your "solution" will cause COVID-19 to become endemic.

It isn't already?

 

[Phil12]

It isn't already?

If enough people get immunized, the virus could be eliminated in some regions. Then we work to eliminate it in other regions. It's taking longer than necessary due to vaccine reluctance.

 

[hopemax]

Your "solution" will cause COVID-19 to become endemic.

Also, because adults will continue to get sick and the unvaccinated will gain their immunity the natural way, in a few years the largest remaining population that will not have protection will be "new humans." Then we learn if the vaccines provide multi-year or even lifetime protection, and if long covid in kids is bad enough that we decide to vaccinate the kids like we do chicken pox and the rest. Then eradication, at least in the US, becomes a possibility again. Or if the virus changes too much, it becomes like the other coronaviruses where we wait for the kids to get sick (hopefully mild, and without long term consequences).

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

It's taking longer than necessary due to vaccine reluctance.

It’s also taking longer because people weren’t following masks and social distancing rules last year and now we’ve given up in the states because “it’s your fault if you aren’t vaxxed yet!”

Not that I have some miracle easy solution to all of this.

 

[GoofGoof]

I did see a report that as of ~June 8th, the drop in US case counts have plateaued.

NY Times trackers for cases, in the last 14 days

Arkansas +74%
Missouri +44% (+9% for hospitalizations, the next in line behind Oklahoma)
Utah +39%
Oklahoma +33% (Oklahoma is also +38% for hospitalizations)
Kansas +21%
Texas +14%
Nevada +13%

They are starting from low numbers, so while it's not serious yet, it is indicative that things are happening in places that won't necessarily show up in national trends because they aren't populated enough to tip the scales. Whether it's an early sign of Delta, Memorial Day effects, and/or mitigation removal (even in areas where mitigation was weak, some people were doing some things and now no one is doing much of anything) we will have to continue to watch.

The rate of decline in cases has slowed. I am not sure it’s a plateau yet. More of a slight blip up and then a continued decline down but the slop is flatter than before. The 7 day average of news cases over 4 weeks:

June 16 13,467 14.7%
June 9 15,789 4.4%
June 2 16,528 28.7%
May 27 23,181

The 25%+ weekly declines stalled out, but we are still trending downward overall. Here’s the graph of US cases:

 

[Phil12]

Also, because adults will continue to get sick and the unvaccinated will gain their immunity the natural way, in a few years the largest remaining population that will not have protection will be "new humans." Then we learn if the vaccines provide multi-year or even lifetime protection, and if long covid in kids is bad enough that we decide to vaccinate the kids like we do chicken pox and the rest. Then eradication, at least in the US, becomes a possibility again. Or if the virus changes too much, it becomes like the other coronaviruses where we wait for the kids to get sick (hopefully mild, and without long term consequences).

And some will die needlessly, the natural way.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Nonsense. The data clearly supports this new variant is going to hit the USA hard like the UK. The UK is using Astra Zeneca and Pfizer. The USA using Pfizer and moderna. The only difference is the Astra Zeneca vaccine. Both countries have high vaccination rates, but also have similar traits of large unvaccinated sectors of people.

The only difference being the USA is still at around 10% Delta, where as the UK is now full 100% Delta. I'm sure the US are looking at the UK numbers with alarm.

And if Delta doesn't kill us all, it will be the Gamma variant. If we make it through that, I have it on good authority from a bus driver that a Martian invasion will come in November, killing us all and really screwing up holiday retail sales.