There have been some studies showing that even after 1 dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine there is a high level of protection from severe illness and death. Right how 72% of the 65+ population has at least 1 shot. That should significantly cut down on the vast majority of the most vulnerable population potentially dying. Younger people with health conditions are behind 65+ but not by more than a month or so. Deaths are on a lag and most of the deaths reported today happened in the last month plus death Is not always quick with Covid so in theory a death reported today could be someone who died March 1 and got sick mid-February. 4-6 weeks from now the deaths reported will be from people infected today so hopefully we see a big drop off.
As far as cases and a surge goes, it’s not a guarantee. Here’s a pretty good article describing the parallels to Israel and how things may rollout in the US.
It’s official: After falling for more than two straight months, the average number of daily COVID-19 cases across the U.S. has begun — just barely — to rise again.
news.yahoo.com