Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
ImperfectPixie said:
Thank you for posting this - I'm in MA, and we're still in empty shelf territory. It started last Thursday, so hopefully should be done soon.
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I really think it will be for Mass. As I think of the timing of it here in SoCal, we lost all bath tissue and paper towels around the first of the month. Last weekend (March 7th) the pasta and pasta sauce was gone at my supermarkets and Trader Joe's, but it was about March 10th that things tipped over the edge into insanity in SoCal. By Thursday last week is when there was no meat or any dairy products, all canned goods were gone, all frozen foods gone, and most produce gone.

It remained that way for about three days, even though the stores were restocking through the day and fully restocking overnight. Yesterday it was a noticeable shift into less panic, and today it seemed practically normal.

I really think it just took about a full week of panic for everyone to fill up their pantries and spare closet with food of all kinds. There are probably people looking at all that stuff now thinking "What am I gonna do with all this stuff?!?"

Meanwhile, American factories are still pumping out millions of tons of food per day, the chickens are still laying millions of eggs a day, the cows are still giving ten million gallons of milk a day, and the Charmin factory is working all three shifts while Mr. Whipple stands on a balcony above the production line yelling "Go faster!"

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21stamps

21stamps

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I am hoping for a Memorial Day Weekend opening. I have a June Trip scheduled to make up for my canceled April trip.
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I gave my parents so much grief over having an April check in date one day after my kid’s 10th birthday... told them they could have so much money (they have DDP) if they would have done one week earlier... looks like it wouldn’t have mattered now anyway. Who knows when they’ll reschedule, both myself and my siblings have our own family vacations during the summer months. I do hope they get to do this trip at some point though, it was supposed to be their “goodbye” to Disney. One last trip, first trip with their grandkids.
 
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ifan

Well-Known Member
thomas998 said:
The reality is we do not know how many ventilators even exist in the US. If you go back to a previous news article when a reporter asked how many we had in the US the government official refused to answer on the grounds that it was a national security issue and would not be disclosed. So frankly we don't know if we have enough for any model, and anyone stating that we don't have enough for the worst case scenario model is flat out lying because they can't possibly know if we do or don't given the government refuses to release the information.

If you think a back we had chicken littles tell us the hospitals would be over burdened and collapse in 10 days and that was two weeks ago... now I've seeing someone say the Hospitals are 8 days from collapse... This is the type of malarkey that causes people to stop listening to anything the media or government says. If you don't have the ability to say what is going to happen in the future then have the guts to admit you don't know instead of just making up worst case scenario answer.

As for models, they are really pointless. I've run enough model in my life to know that for any model to be accurate you need good data to base it on. We don't have good data to base any model on in this country. We don't really have a clue how many people are really already infected nor have a clue as to what the real rate of being asymptomatic or of suffering serious life threatening consequences are which means everything in those models is a guess. You might get away with one guess in a model and have a guess that is close enough to right that it doesn't matter but the more things you have to guess about the further your model will be from reality. I will be shocked if the mortality rate of this virus ends up being more than half a percent, which would still be equivalent to the Hong Kong Flu of the late 60's which while bad didn't result in nearly as much pandemonium as you are seeing today.
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Modeling is not always the most accurate technique, you're right. And journalists need to be smarter when discussing modeling projections. All we really know for sure is that the increase is already happening in certain areas and we have two solutions: 1) lock people down to minimize the future infection rate and slow down the ICU admissions 2) increase capacity. Hospitals are already doing everything they can to increase current capacity. For example, the surgical floors are being turned into ICU floors. Resident rooms in certain hospitals are being transformed. All of this can be done now and probably doubles our current ICU capacity at hospitals.

Now, when we run out of those rooms, what happens next? This is likely to happen in NY state first, judging by their current rate, and that is why the Governor there is asking for federal assistance in building new spaces, using FEMA MASH tents, or taking over other medical facilities.

As recently as a few days ago I was thinking the same as you. That this will be .5% mortality rate in the long run, etc, etc. While this is still a possibility, the more that I hear from physician friends in hospitals around the country, the less likely I think this is to happen.

We are also making our jobs harder right now by not protecting our frontline healthcare workers enough. PPE is in shortage (masks, goggles, gowns) and because of this, hospitals are rationing supplies. Re-using masks between patients. This will cause our healthcare workers to become sick themselves, and make our capacity issues even worse. In Northern Italy, 12% of all doctors are infected.
 
ImperfectPixie

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
MickeyLuv'r said:
Again, I think this is a bit of misplaced blame.

Have you not heard of "lean supply chain"?

The bigger the company, the leaner they try to keep their supply chains. In normal times, lean supply = maximizing $$$.

More or less, we see the same thing at MK. WDW doesn't make money off of empty seats. Operating rides and staffing restaurants costs $. they want butts in seats from park opening until park close.

Stores don't make money stocking lots of toilet paper. It is bulky and the stores don't make money off of it, so they don't keep a big supply on hand.
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I'm not mis-placing blame though. I live in nor'easter and blizzard territory. Yes, the stores get slammed then, too, and there is an empty shelf or two for a day...maybe two. What we're seeing isn't an empty shelf or two. It's six, or seven, or eight. Even during a blizzard or epic nor'easter we can still get hamburger and other meats. The meat section at all the stores here have been WIPED OUT. Home Depot sold out of freezers, so all those people who bought them are now filling them with meat that they cleared out of the supermarkets - that NEVER happens because of a storm. There is a big hoarding and panic-shopping issue going on.
 
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ifan

Well-Known Member
Also: Countries like Spain, Italy, France have gone under total lockdown.

America is trying the most American thing we do - giving people a choice (at the federal level) with CDC "Guidelines." I truly believe that the federal government will see the large numbers over the next week and be forced to make these guidelines mandatory for a short amount of time. At the very least, more and more states/cities will enforce mandatory lockdowns like San Francisco.
 
21stamps

21stamps

Well-Known Member
ifan said:
Also: Countries like Spain, Italy, France have gone under total lockdown.

America is trying the most American thing we do - giving people a choice (at the federal level) with CDC "Guidelines." I truly believe that the federal government will see the large numbers over the next week and be forced to make these guidelines mandatory for a short amount of time. At the very least, more and more states/cities will enforce mandatory lockdowns like San Francisco.
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I don’t want to see forced lock downs go above the city or state level.. I don’t even really want to see it go above city, but state is better than federal.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
thomas998 said:
If you really want to stop the virus you can't allow these kids to come together like this. Last report I saw said as many as 86% of people with the virus are asymptomatic which means that there would be a good chance that one player on a team would be infected and then it would result in infecting all the other players and then their families. While the 86% asymptomatic means that the mortality rate isn't really 3% but is closer to 0.5%... that is still more risk than you have with the flu so it should still be taken seriously.
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What nobody has really quantified is how contagious asymptomatic people are. China and South Korea based a lot of their containment on temperature checks. There were some statements from the WHO that asymptomatic spread is not a large driver of overall spread.

It makes a difference if asymptomatic patients can spread the virus easily just by being in the same room and breathing or if they have to (disgustingly) pick their nose and touch a surface that is then touched by somebody else.

Regarding the mortality rate, it was stated in today's briefing that the mortality rate was looking like it was around 0.7% in reality. If you start with that rate, then the real rate (if the 86% asymptomatic is true) is more like 0.1% or approximately the same as the flu. Granted, due to lack of a vaccine, the infection rate would be higher so there would be more deaths in total.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
ifan said:
Also: Countries like Spain, Italy, France have gone under total lockdown.

America is trying the most American thing we do - giving people a choice (at the federal level) with CDC "Guidelines." I truly believe that the federal government will see the large numbers over the next week and be forced to make these guidelines mandatory for a short amount of time. At the very least, more and more states/cities will enforce mandatory lockdowns like San Francisco.
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This is the only way to do it. The federal government does not have the legal authority to order any of these things. They can only issue guidelines and then ask the Governors to turn those guidelines into orders at the state level.
 
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