Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LittleBuford]

My comments were specifically on the article you posted which was about the UK.

The AstraZenneca vaccine was tested in a clinical trial in South Africa where the vast majority of cases came from the S African variant and it showed very poor efficacy. JnJ was also tested in S Africa in a clinical trial and showed a much higher efficacy than AstraZenneca that was still above the threshold that was set by the FDA. That‘s not to say that JnJ won’t also eventually need a booster but it’s definitely more pressing for AstraZenneca.

Pfizer and Moderna were not tested in real life in S Africa with a trial. We know from the study you posted that they produce less antibodies vs that variant but that’s in a lab and the researchers acknowledged the sample size was small and that it’s not fully known how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will work in real life against the South African variant. There are factors beyond antibodies that impact efficacy. Both Pfizer and Moderna are looking into creating boosters for that variant if it becomes a problem here or anywhere else and that’s the beauty of the mRNA vaccines, easily apadtable. The S African government has switched their vaccination effort to the Pfizer vaccine from AstraZenneca so we should get a lot of real life data relatively soon on how the vaccine works there vs the variant.

So far in both the UK and the US the number of cases with the S African variant are extremely low. It’s something to monitor for sure, but not a direct threat to the current vaccine effort in either place. Probably a good reason to limit international travel a bit longer though.

I'm not sure why we're not understanding each other, but my posts have been pretty clear in content and intent. I'm moving on from this exchange.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Would it be possible to re-run the efficacy phases of the various vaccines in the variant primarily affected areas? Maybe not as is seems that no placebo group would be ethically appropriate? Does this affect attendance by groups or tours from variant affected areas to the WDW parks and resorts?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Great comparison on all 5 vaccines and a lot of little details about each that some here may not know. Interesting read. More of a visual comparison which is kind of cool.

Comparing the COVID-19 vaccines

Three vaccines are authorized for use in the United States and another two are coming soon. Here is a closer look at what we know so far:

www.google.com

 

[Chi84]

I hope to god that this is just a simple case of the polls being way wrong. I don’t know a whole lot of people who are registered Republicans who are not planning to get the vaccine. I chalked that up to being in a suburban market in a purple state in the Northeast. @DisneyCane has said the same about his circle in Florida. It’s even more encouraging to hear that’s what you are seeing in Alabama too. It would be tragic to have enough vaccine for everyone and have a large group of people not get it for political reasons. We are so close to getting out of this. Just need everyone to get their jabs.

Illinois was set to open eligibility to everyone on April 12, but they instead opened it up yesterday because certain areas in the state were not filling all the appointment slots. Chicago and Cook County decided to keep the original date because demand is still outpacing supply in those areas.

Mitigation measures were put in place to control the pandemic, not to ensure no one ever gets COVID. Now that people have the ability to protect themselves, the burden of doing so will ultimately (gradually, not immediately) shift from society to the individual. Hopefully, enough will get vaccinated to substantially limit the spread of the virus. But social distancing, limited travel, mask-wearing, etc. were never intended to be a long-term solution, and in practice, they are coming to an end.

As far as those who choose not to protect themselves, decisions will have to be made. We can't have them overburdening hospitals - perhaps we will have to expand existing facilities or build additional ones to accommodate COVID patients. I'm not familiar enough with the subject to know whether this is feasible. Even though Illinois has had a couple of major spikes in the last year, hospitalizations have remained stable. Either people are not getting as sick, the people who are getting sick are younger, or treatments have gotten better. As has always been the case with this pandemic, individual decisions will impact others.

 

[Bullseye1967]

I hope to god that this is just a simple case of the polls being way wrong. I don’t know a whole lot of people who are registered Republicans who are not planning to get the vaccine. I chalked that up to being in a suburban market in a purple state in the Northeast. @DisneyCane has said the same about his circle in Florida. It’s even more encouraging to hear that’s what you are seeing in Alabama too. It would be tragic to have enough vaccine for everyone and have a large group of people not get it for political reasons. We are so close to getting out of this. Just need everyone to get their jabs.

I am a registered Republican in Middle Tennessee, and no one I know in this area is not planning on getting a jab. The only person that has actually told me they would not get it is a family member who I would definitely not call conservative in Illinois.

 

[GoofGoof]

Would it be possible to re-run the efficacy phases of the various vaccines in the variant primarily affected areas? Maybe not as is seems that no placebo group would be ethically appropriate? Does this affect attendance by groups or tours from variant affected areas to the WDW parks and resorts?

Good questions, but unknown at this time. We got lucky in that JnJ, Novavax and AstraZenneca happened to be testing their vaccine in S Africa after the variant became dominant. JnJ and Novavax showed reduced efficacy there, but much higher than AstraZenneca. Pfizer did run a trial in South Africa but I believe it was primarily before the variant took hold. I don’t think they will go back and run an additional full trial, but the government there is switching to JnJ and Pfizer so we should get more real world results. There isn’t a formal placebo group but similar to studies in Israel they could create a virtual placebo group from the general population that isn’t vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm not sure why we're not understanding each other, but my posts have been pretty clear in content and intent. I'm moving on from this exchange.

I wasn’t trying to disagree with anything you said. I was commenting on the article you posted and the situation in the UK.

 

[Patcheslee]

Middle and high school went back to full in school instruction Feb 18th with a county positivity rate at less than 3%. Today we're back up to 5.9% and out of the lowest Indiana level again. I really hope we don't go back to virtual again, but from the looks of reports the high school is seeing cases again. They only update school data on Mondays.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Recently heard radio report from local school district that they had expected lower transmission numbers in elementary grades and higher in middle, with highest of all three in high school. They were surprised when the exact opposite happened. There were several factors they were looking at, including staff to staff transmission that then migrates to students, as well as the inside/outside ratios of the different grades. Very interesting to hear and may affect WDW visitation and mitigation measures.

 

[danlb_2000]

I'm pretty certain there wasn't a whole lot of overlap between people who had concerns about the Y2K bug and the Mayan calendar thing.

And you realize, of course, that Y2K went off largely without issue because in the US alone we spent over $300 billion correcting and retesting nearly 50 years' worth of accumulated computer coding?

Being concerned about a potential threat scenario and trying to mitigate or avoid the thread isn't the same as being resigned to a gloom and doom attitude.

There was a small segment of gloom-and-doomers that thought Y2K would cause missiles to launch from the silos, nuclear plants to melt down and planes to fall from the skies. I don't think those extreme scenarios were ever going to happen, but you are right, I a lot of things would have gone wrong it had not been for the hard work of a lot of people, myself included.

 

[Patcheslee]

Recently heard radio report from local school district that they had expected lower transmission numbers in elementary grades and higher in middle, with highest of all three in high school. They were surprised when the exact opposite happened. There were several factors they were looking at, including staff to staff transmission that then migrates to students, as well as the inside/outside ratios of the different grades. Very interesting to hear and may affect WDW visitation and mitigation measures.

Personal thought is high schoolers usually have more social freedom vs elementary kids need parents to take them to meet up with friends. So high schoolers may be less likely to follow covid standards outside school. Honestly I'm enjoying the "stay 6ft away" thing with my 6th grader having a "kinda boyfriend" she sits 6ft from at recess and chats with vs boy trying anything right now

 

[correcaminos]

I would assume that since the AstraZenneca vaccine is only 10% effective vs the S African variant and that’s the most popular vaccine in the UK they probably need to plan for the boosters just in case that variant arrives there. Pfizer and Moderna both said they were working on potential boosters too which makes sense. It’s not alarmist to plan for potential issues even if the likelihood of needing those boosters isn’t particularly high. It’s also big business. Requiring a 3rd shot for everyone is potentially billions in vaccine sales for the companies.

IMHO there‘s at least a 50/50 chance that we all need a booster in the next year or so either because the vaccine protection begins to wear off naturally or due to variants. I don’t think that has any impact on the current vaccine process at all. People need to get the vaccines now to cut cases as fast as possible. Once we get enough people vaccinated then the government can turn to an assessment of whether we need a booster and when.

I think also if trials deem they need a booster then we will. I'm not sure if I think the mRNAs will need it that soon or not. To me it's not the government to decide but science and those running all the tests and such. It may very well vary depending on which shot you get too.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

“Belgium will close schools, non-food stores and hairdressers for four weeks from Saturday, in a sharp renewed lockdown designed to contain a rising third wave of COVID-19 infections.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-belgium-idUSKBN2BG20W

 

[GoofGoof]

I think also if trials deem they need a booster then we will. I'm not sure if I think the mRNAs will need it that soon or not. To me it's not the government to decide but science and those running all the tests and such. It may very well vary depending on which shot you get too.

Agreed. That’s why I was sorta hedging my bets saying 50/50. Pfizer and Moderna have already said they are actively working on a potential booster that would increase the efficacy vs the newer variants. There’s no guarantee we will need it, but they can’t or shouldn‘t wait until we decide it’s necessary to start researching. I think the companies are doing the right thing and if the need becomes clear than it will be up to the government to foot the bill for additional doses. Pfizer and Moderna combined have the capacity to manufacture and deliver over 100M doses a month now so if they need to pull the trigger on a booster it could be manufactured in around 3 months for the whole US population. It would have to be approved first, but I’m not sure whether they need a full clinical trial or if it’s the same basic vaccine, slightly modified if the change can be factored into the original EUA.

 

[seascape]

I don't trust polls. I don't know anyone that is not going to take the shot. However, look at the breakdown of the population by race and the vaccine distribution. Based on the facts that Caucasians and getting the vaccine at a higher rate than minorities, I find it hard to believe Trump voters are less like to get vaccinated unless there were more minorities voting for Trump than the media reported. Polls are just stupid because I do know many people who lie to pollsters and would never tell them the truth. Personally I agree with them because whrn politicians passed do not call laws they specifically exempted pollsters and political activity.

 

[DC0703]

I am a registered Republican in Middle Tennessee, and no one I know in this area is not planning on getting a jab. The only person that has actually told me they would not get it is a family member who I would definitely not call conservative in Illinois.

I sincerely hope this ends up being the case and that the polls regarding vaccine hesitancy and political affiliation are incorrect.

In my case, I have a huge extended family that is entirely republican and almost none are planning to get the shot, though with my immediate family we are trying hard to convince them otherwise. Their reasons are that the vaccine is "government control" and that there's no need to take an "rushed, unapproved vaccine for what is essentially a bad cold". Their words, not mine.

Likewise, at my job, where we are all eligible due to our workplace designation, the employees I know that don't plan to get the shot are all republican, though they have not said their reasons for not getting it and I didn't pry.

Once again, I hope that my anecdotal account is an anomaly or that they all change their mind when they see most of their neighbors getting it.

 

[iowamomof4]

Since so many are sharing their experience, I'll jump in. Sadly, I do know a lot of people who either refuse to get vaccinated or want to wait until they either have no choice or feel more comfortable that people aren't having late-onset side effects. The former group is definitely larger than the latter (among those who aren't lining up to get the jab in my circle). Some of them live in rural areas, others live in cities, but the ones I know who aren't getting it are definitely conservative (my circle leans heavily conservative).

I'm glad the majority of my extended family is either done or in the process of getting vaccinated. Dh and I get our second doses on Monday (Pfizer).

 

[correcaminos]

I don't trust polls. I don't know anyone that is not going to take the shot. However, look at the breakdown of the population by race and the vaccine distribution. Based on the facts that Caucasians and getting the vaccine at a higher rate than minorities, I find it hard to believe Trump voters are less like to get vaccinated unless there were more minorities voting for Trump than the media reported. Polls are just stupid because I do know many people who lie to pollsters and would never tell them the truth. Personally I agree with them because whrn politicians passed do not call laws they specifically exempted pollsters and political activity.

I do know people. Some oddly proud proud too for those not getting it. Those who fall into marginalized groups have other issues and they are more unique to overcome but in many cases are. The disparities between marginalized and white (I separate because not all Caucasians are considered white) can cause lower enrollment to getting the shots too.

It's not a surprise that I have been able to easily get shots for those in extremely rural and Trump heavy lands. It's not. I never had such strong reasons to dislike a president before. He did so much damage that I think is irreparable.

Others who are also antivax for other reasons are hard to reason with too. Marginalized often just need a personal touch from another in a marginalized group. Those who are politically driven to not vaccinate are my hardest to reason with.

 

[GoofGoof]

Just to add to the vaccine resistance discussion it’s not just by state. Here‘s what’s happening now in PA:

As Americans scramble to get vaccinated, many rural, conservative Pennsylvanians feel no urgency

Rural and conservative Pennsylvanians' resistance to COVID-19 vaccination is likely to become more pronounced as younger people become eligible for shots.

www.inquirer.com

So even within the state they are seeing vaccine acceptance vary greatly between rural and urban/suburban areas and it’s not all politics that is driving the differences. Whatever the cause it’s going to be up to governors to pull in people from those resistant groups. That’s the key to get over the finish line.

 

[Patcheslee]

Just to add to the vaccine resistance discussion it’s not just by state. Here‘s what’s happening now in PA:

As Americans scramble to get vaccinated, many rural, conservative Pennsylvanians feel no urgency

Rural and conservative Pennsylvanians' resistance to COVID-19 vaccination is likely to become more pronounced as younger people become eligible for shots.

www.inquirer.com

So even within the state they are seeing vaccine acceptance vary greatly between rural and urban/suburban areas and it’s not all politics that is driving the differences. Whatever the cause it’s going to be up to governors to pull in people from those resistant groups. That’s the key to get over the finish line.

Has anyone researched the single vs married demographics as well? Just from personal experience husband had the "eh I might get it at some point" attitude. But after just talking to him about his risks being higher due to asthma and at the least make me feel a little better, he's getting his. (He learned his lesson about not listening after his "just a sore" strep throat needed to be lanced at a hospital).
Women in general are shown to utilize health care services more than men so they could really push for men in their lives to get on board.