Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I know there is no reason to panic and I still believe that by April 30 the country will be down to 5 or less cases per 100,000. However, as a lifelong New Jersey resident I am very upset at our state. There is no excuse. Maybe I can put it this way. Newark has lots of cases and should be a hard place to get the vaccines but if you work there it is real easy because the residents aren't signing up. I know that because I signed my wife up the first day I tried and just last week I signed his boss up on the first day of trying. That is pathetic, I spent weeks trying to get signed up and had to drive 90 minutes to Berlin to get it. I will have my second shot Friday. I did more than my part in getting people signed up. I always wear a mask. I want NJ to do better. Too many people here complain about Florida and make excuses for NJ and NY. There are no excuses, do better.

What can the government do differently? Most of the criticism about FL revolves around the Governor‘s plan to do nothing to prevent the spread of Covid. Should NY and NJ go back to full lockdowns? Close restaurants for indoor dining? Send schools back to full virtual? There aren’t many other levers to pull and I feel it’s premature to do any of that yet. I’m fine with them not relaxing anything further for now and waiting to see if cases start declining again. It’s not like there’s a major spike in cases right now, I posted the graph, it’s a small blip right now. If the trend continues up in the next few weeks then more mitigation can and will be added back, just like CA did in Dec/Jan.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Close restaurants for indoor dining? Send schools back to full virtual?

Yes to the former.
Maybe on schools.

 

[carolina_yankee]

What can the government do differently? Most of the criticism about FL revolves around the Governor‘s plan to do nothing to prevent the spread of Covid. Should NY and NJ go back to full lockdowns? Close restaurants for indoor dining? Send schools back to full virtual? There aren’t many other levers to pull and I feel it’s premature to do any of that yet. I’m fine with them not relaxing anything further for now and waiting to see if cases start declining again. It’s not like there’s a major spike in cases right now, I posted the graph, it’s a small blip right now. If the trend continues up in the next few weeks then more mitigation can and will be added back, just like CA did in Dec/Jan.

Yes to the former.
Maybe on schools.

Why? They're not tracing outbreaks to school and indoor dining. In fact, the governor has been slowing dialing up capacity on different types of gatherings. Time and gain, the issues seem to be private gatherings where protocols aren't being followed. Most of the counties along the Delaware are actually doing very good. The problematic counties are a couple of shore counties and one that has easy access to Manhattan.

Hospitalizations in NJ are continuing to go down. Our local hospital is down by half from four weeks ago. I'm guessing the spread, if there is any, is from younger people who tend to not need hospitalization. Which also points to private gatherings where protocols aren't being followed.

I also think over the next week or two you'll see the numbers return to decline.

 

[seascape]

What can the government do differently? Most of the criticism about FL revolves around the Governor‘s plan to do nothing to prevent the spread of Covid. Should NY and NJ go back to full lockdowns? Close restaurants for indoor dining? Send schools back to full virtual? There aren’t many other levers to pull and I feel it’s premature to do any of that yet. I’m fine with them not relaxing anything further for now and waiting to see if cases start declining again. It’s not like there’s a major spike in cases right now, I posted the graph, it’s a small blip right now. If the trend continues up in the next few weeks then more mitigation can and will be added back, just like CA did in Dec/Jan.

No, it is not up to the government. If we all do the right thing we can still go out and eat and shop. Wear a mask and social distance. But the biggest thing we can do is not gather indoors without a mask unless you have been vaccinated. Be smart and not stupid. The cases are increasing because of not following reasonable rules. If California can do it so can NJ.

 

[SamusAranX]

Has anyone used Florida’s preregistration notification system yet? I signed up for it and apparently it puts you “in line” to get a call for an appt setup when you’re eligible. Want to know if it actually works how they say it does

 

[GoofGoof]

No, it is not up to the government. If we all do the right thing we can still go out and eat and shop. Wear a mask and social distance. But the biggest thing we can do is not gather indoors without a mask unless you have been vaccinated. Be smart and not stupid. The cases are increasing because of not following reasonable rules. If California can do it so can NJ.

Is there a problem with people not wearing masks in NJ? I haven’t spent much time there recently but mask wearing seemed to be about the same as where I live in PA which is very high.

Why? They're not tracing outbreaks to school and indoor dining. In fact, the governor has been slowing dialing up capacity on different types of gatherings. Time and gain, the issues seem to be private gatherings where protocols aren't being followed. Most of the counties along the Delaware are actually doing very good. The problematic counties are a couple of shore counties and one that has easy access to Manhattan.

Hospitalizations in NJ are continuing to go down. Our local hospital is down by half from four weeks ago. I'm guessing the spread, if there is any, is from younger people who tend to not need hospitalization. Which also points to private gatherings where protocols aren't being followed.

I also think over the next week or two you'll see the numbers return to decline.

As I posted earlier there is definitely an uptick in NYC area vs other parts of NY/NJ/CT. The parts of NJ bordering PA and Philly have similar numbers to us. It’s likely at least partially due to variants becoming more of an issue in NYC. It’s possible that the areas around Manhattan have just stopped wearing masks and started gathering more indoors against recommendations but it seems unlikely. Same thing in FL. Miami’s daily case numbers per 100K people is nearly double the state of FL average. There’s been a higher level in urban centers due to population density since the beginning, but it seems to have blown out in some areas and those areas also have the highest prevalence of variants. It’s at least a good possibility that that has a significant impact on the situation.

 

[seascape]

Is there a problem with people not wearing masks in NJ? I haven’t spent much time there recently but mask wearing seemed to be about the same as where I live in PA which is very high.


As I posted earlier there is definitely an uptick in NYC area vs other parts of NY/NJ/CT. The parts of NJ bordering PA and Philly have similar numbers to us. It’s likely at least partially due to variants becoming more of an issue in NYC. It’s possible that the areas around Manhattan have just stopped wearing masks and started gathering more indoors against recommendations but it seems unlikely. Same thing in FL. Miami’s daily case numbers per 100K people is nearly double the state of FL average. There’s been a higher level in urban centers due to population density since the beginning, but it seems to have blown out in some areas and those areas also have the highest prevalence of variants. It’s at least a good possibility that that has a significant impact on the situation.

In public I have seen more people walking without a mask but I believe the problem is caused by more people having private parties and gatherings. What is clear is NJ's cases are going up and that means deaths and hospitalizations will go up soon. I do not blame the government, but it is interesting that while cases have gone up the State is lowering restrictions. Where are those who criticized Florida on this? Florida, with cases going down should be open but for NJ to be the worst state in new cases and the worst state by far in total deaths may want to reconsider opening everything up if my fellow citizens are not following reasonable rules. I want things open. I want people to wear masks, social distance and waah their hands.

 

[correcaminos]

In public I have seen more people walking without a mask but I believe the problem is caused by more people having private parties and gatherings. What is clear is NJ's cases are going up and that means deaths and hospitalizations will go up soon. I do not blame the government, but it is interesting that while cases have gone up the State is lowering restrictions. Where are those who criticized Florida on this? Florida, with cases going down should be open but for NJ to be the worst state in new cases and the worst state by far in total deaths may want to reconsider opening everything up if my fellow citizens are not following reasonable rules. I want things open. I want people to wear masks, social distance and waah their hands.

If NJ is lucky, the cases may go up but if it is just unvaccinated acting this way other numbers may drop too. We're in a weird moment where we are vaccinating millions a day which will drive numbers down drastically and a time when people are just tired thinking it's been a year and it's spring so they let down the masks and such.

 

[Touchdown]

Also don’t forget, we preferentially vaccinated individuals over 65, even if numbers surge you probably will not see as much of a rise in hospitalization (if at all) due to the vast majority of people that age being vaccinated (in WI we are approaching 70% first shot, 40% fully vaccinated.)

 

[correcaminos]

Also don’t forget, we preferentially vaccinated individuals over 65, even if numbers surge you probably will not see as much of a rise in hospitalization (if at all) due to the vast majority of people that age being vaccinated (in WI we are approaching 70% first shot, 40% fully vaccinated.)

Yep, this is exactly what I was getting at and failed to spell out. Even those vaccinated too may test positive but many are showing little to no symptoms.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Is there a problem with people not wearing masks in NJ? I haven’t spent much time there recently but mask wearing seemed to be about the same as where I live in PA which is very high.


As I posted earlier there is definitely an uptick in NYC area vs other parts of NY/NJ/CT. The parts of NJ bordering PA and Philly have similar numbers to us. It’s likely at least partially due to variants becoming more of an issue in NYC. It’s possible that the areas around Manhattan have just stopped wearing masks and started gathering more indoors against recommendations but it seems unlikely. Same thing in FL. Miami’s daily case numbers per 100K people is nearly double the state of FL average. There’s been a higher level in urban centers due to population density since the beginning, but it seems to have blown out in some areas and those areas also have the highest prevalence of variants. It’s at least a good possibility that that has a significant impact on the situation.

By next week or two, the cases will go more down if the people getting more vaccinating in NJ then NJ may losing masks and social distancing by late April or May/June.

 

[carolina_yankee]

In public I have seen more people walking without a mask but I believe the problem is caused by more people having private parties and gatherings. What is clear is NJ's cases are going up and that means deaths and hospitalizations will go up soon. I do not blame the government, but it is interesting that while cases have gone up the State is lowering restrictions. Where are those who criticized Florida on this? Florida, with cases going down should be open but for NJ to be the worst state in new cases and the worst state by far in total deaths may want to reconsider opening everything up if my fellow citizens are not following reasonable rules. I want things open. I want people to wear masks, social distance and waah their hands.

If NJ is lucky, the cases may go up but if it is just unvaccinated acting this way other numbers may drop too. We're in a weird moment where we are vaccinating millions a day which will drive numbers down drastically and a time when people are just tired thinking it's been a year and it's spring so they let down the masks and such.

Also don’t forget, we preferentially vaccinated individuals over 65, even if numbers surge you probably will not see as much of a rise in hospitalization (if at all) due to the vast majority of people that age being vaccinated (in WI we are approaching 70% first shot, 40% fully vaccinated.)

I very much think the pace of vaccinations is keeping things in check for us her in NJ. This week should see us with 1 million fully vaccinated and 2,000,000 with at least the first dose. I think the state's goal of 70% of adults vaccinated by Memorial Day puts us at 5 million. They expect vaccinations to increase exponentially starting in late March - just a couple of weeks away. If there is a new wave, it may turn into a fizzle.

I still think the cases are younger people because hospitalizations have been going down too long. Again, this week will tell, because we would start to see the ramp up from new cases if it's going to be bad, but I'm hopeful.

 

[seascape]

By next week or two, the cases will go more down if the people getting more vaccinating in NJ then NJ may losing masks and social distancing by late April or May/June.

I know cases will come down. The country should be under 5 cases per 100,000 by April 30. We are currently at 16.58 cases per 100,000. Florida is above that average but the think of the fact that only NY and NY are double the average national rate. As a NJ resident who owns property in a three states I am disappointed with all me neighbors but especially NJ. All I want is the people of all 3 statesto wear a mask, social distance and wash their hands. If they did that, the number of caseswould drop quickly especially with people taking the vaccine. This is not a government problem but a people problem.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I know cases will come down. The country should be under 5 cases per 100,000 by April 30. We are currently at 16.58 cases per 100,000. Florida is above that average but the think of the fact that only NY and NY are double the average national rate. As a NJ resident who owns property in a three states I am disappointed with all me neighbors but especially NJ. All I want is the people of all 3 statesto wear a mask, social distance and wash their hands. If they did that, the number of caseswould drop quickly especially with people taking the vaccine. This is not a government problem but a people problem.

By late summer or fall, the pandemic will be end in USA for good as 70% or 80% people got vaccinated in the country and no more surges or wave for good right?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Why? They're not tracing outbreaks to school and indoor dining

What are they tracing the outbreaks to?

 

[SamusAranX]

What are they tracing the outbreaks to?

Walmart Rave parties

 

[seascape]

By late summer or fall, the pandemic will be end in USA for good as 70% or 80% people got vaccinated in the country and no more surges or wave for good right?

I am more optimistic than most people here. I am on record saying the pandemic will be over April 30. There is no reason the country can't reduce the cases by 70% over the next 47 days. We can all take the vaccines that Biden promises will be available in that time. However, we still need to follow reasonable rules until then. That means my wife and I wearing masks at WDW in April, even though she is fullly vaccinated and I will be soon. We understand our responsibility and so should everyone else. Understand, I am positive the end is in sight but I want to get there in weeks and not months. We can do it! We must do it save lives.

 

[GoofGoof]

I am more optimistic than most people here. I am on record saying the pandemic will be over April 30. There is no reason the country can't reduce the cases by 70% over the next 47 days. We can all take the vaccines that Biden promises will be available in that time. However, we still need to follow reasonable rules until then. That means my wife and I wearing masks at WDW in April, even though she is fullly vaccinated and I will be soon. We understand our responsibility and so should everyone else. Understand, I am positive the end is in sight but I want to get there in weeks and not months. We can do it! We must do it save lives.

Under optimal conditions and with a huge ramp up in deliveries and vaccinations the best we can hope for by April 30 is 160M people fully vaccinated with around 40M more having at least 1 shot done. So 200M people started. That‘s 80% of adults and 60% of the whole population. I do believe that could actually get it done as far as herd immunity when you consider a certain portion of the unvaccinated will be naturally immune and studies indicate kids are less likely to get symptomatically sick and it also seems less likely to spread Covid. So it’s not a crazy idea that we have reached a really good point by April 30. The pandemic won’t be over worldwide, but in the US we could be well on our way to flatlining the virus. I would say it’s far more likely that by June 1 we will be at that point and we may have close to 200M A,Eric ans fully vaccinated. You also have to factor in the 2 weeks after injection before full immunity so sometime in early June to see the full effect.

I also think the cases and other metrics will begin or continue to decline exponentially even prior to full herd immunity. We’ve seen people who think we reach herd immunity by April if you factor in natural infection and others who say not until the Fall as it will take months after vaccines to reach. I tend to think closer to the April crowd. Like everything else Covid, it’s not a light switch and it’s not fully linear. So you don’t need to get a certain percentage vaccinated and then wait a certain amount of time after that to see the impact of herd immunity. The impact will start well before enough people are vaccinated (may have already started here) and will continue and grow as more and more people are removed from the possible infection list. It will take time to flatline cases as each sick person will still infect some fraction of another person but I don’t think we need near zero cases to start removing Covid restrictions. Just like reopening and other times during Covid the restrictions should be removed gradually and as long as the trend is going in the right direction we continue relaxing.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Under optimal conditions and with a huge ramp up in deliveries and vaccinations the best we can hope for by April 30 is 160M people fully vaccinated with around 40M more having at least 1 shot done. So 200M people started. That‘s 80% of adults and 60% of the whole population. I do believe that could actually get it done as far as herd immunity when you consider a certain portion of the unvaccinated will be naturally immune and studies indicate kids are less likely to get symptomatically sick and it also seems less likely to spread Covid. So it’s not a crazy idea that we have reached a really good point by April 30. The pandemic won’t be over worldwide, but in the US we could be well on our way to flatlining the virus. I would say it’s far more likely that by June 1 we will be at that point and we may have close to 200M A,Eric ans fully vaccinated. You also have to factor in the 2 weeks after injection before full immunity so sometime in early June to see the full effect.

I also think the cases and other metrics will begin or continue to decline exponentially even prior to full herd immunity. We’ve seen people who think we reach herd immunity by April if you factor in natural infection and others who say not until the Fall as it will take months after vaccines to reach. I tend to think closer to the April crowd. Like everything else Covid, it’s not a light switch and it’s not fully linear. So you don’t need to get a certain percentage vaccinated and then wait a certain amount of time after that to see the impact of herd immunity. The impact will start well before enough people are vaccinated (may have already started here) and will continue and grow as more and more people are removed from the possible infection list. It will take time to flatline cases as each sick person will still infect some fraction of another person but I don’t think we need near zero cases to start removing Covid restrictions. Just like reopening and other times during Covid the restrictions should be removed gradually and as long as the trend is going in the right direction we continue relaxing.

If that's case by end of 2021, Halloween, Christmas and Thanksgiving will be much better and everything will go back to normal!

 

[JoeCamel]

By late summer or fall, the pandemic will be end in USA for good as 70% or 80% people got vaccinated in the country and no more surges or wave for good right?

That is the hope and the plan we are working toward. Let's wait and see once we reach that point but the general attitude is that the light is on at the end of the tunnel and it is not a train heading our direction. Until then we maintain what we are doing so we can reach the goal of the plan. Just like Q says "follow the plan" " work the plan" "trust the plan".